Bucks versus Nets - Eastern Conference Semifinals

Music,  I am with you on the refs/NBA.  There is no way in hell they want a Jazz vs. Bucks finals and they will do whatever they can to have NYC in the finals especially if LeBron is out of it.   Sure hope I am wrong.

It’s fixed, why watch?

Because I love the NBA and I hope...

Other than a few egregious examples, the games aren't fixed, but the league can cleary skew things by how they direct officials to call certain plays.

Two examples were I think things were fixed were Kings-Lakers 2002 Game 6 (no question) and Bucks-Celtics Game 7, 1987 (Pressey picks up 3 fouls in a short time span and fouls out to free up Bird).

Harden/Irving and Middleton/Holiday are going to be important, but I don't think those guys are going to be the key to the series. It really comes down to Durant/Giannis and, even more so, how they officiate Giannis on both ends of the court.

There is probably no player that ever lived better equipped to guard Durant one on one than Giannis. Even most elite defenders like Draymond Green (when Durant was at OKC) or Kawhi Leonard usually lacked the length to challenge Durant's jump shot. Durant was going to get off a decent shot against them and there wasn't much you could do about it in single coverage and that forces a double. The doubling was lethal against the Warriors with Curry and Klay to take advantage (but not with OKC with Westbrook clanking shots). Giannis, on the other hand, has the length to bother Durant's jump shots while still having the lateral movement to stay in front of him.

There are two keys. One question will be whether the officials allow Giannis to play physical defense against Durant to avoid foul trouble. A couple of soft foul calls on hand checks or challenges will completely change the nature of the game. Needless to say, the block/charges on the other end when Giannis is involved will have the same effect. The Nets have no one to guard Giannis, so expect a lot of Blake Griffin/Harden flops on their end.

If the game is officiated to allow Giannis to stay on the court (and he avoids careless fouls), the Bucks win in 6 or 7. If Giannis gets in foul trouble against Durant consistently, expect the Nets to win in 5. My guess would be that the officiating will differ depending on who is the home team.

I am suspicious that with almost all the big-market and/or coastal teams other than the Nets perhaps being eliminated soon (Lakers, Clippers, Knicks, Celtics, Wizards, Heat) the home office may go out of their way to skew things towards getting the Nets to the Finals.

Phoenix/Denver/Utah/Dallas coming out to the West really hurts ratings. ESPN/TNT would obviously want the Nets coming out of the East. The Bucks or Sixers would at least generate some moderate interest. The nightmare scenario would be the Hawks coming out of the East to play one of those 4 teams I mentioned. Almost certainly not going to happen.

The Bucks are clearly equipped to defend this team man up, but they’re going to P&R all night long to force the Bucks to choose whether to switch or drop. That’s the cat and mouse game that is in front of them.

Durant can score on anyone, but when it comes down to the final minute, Budenholzer needs to have a plan that keeps them off balance. In the last game they played, Middleton was on Durant a lot. It seemed his job was to make them work, and Giannis destroyed Jordan in their matchup (Giannis had 49-8-4 in that game). In fact, the Bucks “Big 3” had 93 of the Bucks 117 points in that game. No Portis in that game and Lopez only played 25 min and was 4 pts/6 reb with 5 blocks.  

They’ll likely try to iso Lopez off a switch, and if he drops and there’s no recovery from the screened defender they’ll get torched. They’ll have to switch, or they’ll throw lobs to Deandre Jordan all night. If the Nets try to just iso one on one, advantage Bucks.

This will be a very entertaining series for sure. The Bucks have the horses to do it, will the refs/league let them? The Nets are not on the same level as the Knicks, Bulls, Lakers, or even the Clippers. Therin lies the chance. Let's see what happens.

Here's a great breakdown of the matchup:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SI3kdPu_xE

I worry about the officiating but I think if the Bucks can stay competitive and it's a long series, that the Big 3 will have some kind of physical break down that allows the Bucks to pull it out.  All three of their stars are injury prone and you can expect the Bucks are going to use their physical advantage to pound them game in a game out.  The Nets really need Jeff Green so it will be interesting to see if and when he returns.  I wasn't impressed at all by the Nets versus the Celts.  The Bucks should have a huge advantage on the boards which can definitely be demoralizing.  It's going to be fascinating to watch how each coach approaches the match-ups.

So what do we think a successful result of this series is, other than obviously winning? Is a loss in a hard-fought, well-coached series enough for Bud to not be in danger? I'd say yes, but I wonder about others. The Nets do have three future HOFers, and Durant might be a Top 5 offensive player all-time.

I think if the Bucks play well but are outgunned, I won’t feel like it’s a bad loss. If they play stupid basketball and piss away games, it’ll feel like Toronto…

I say win a minimum of 2 games, and be competitive in all of them, with a chance to win in the end. BUT, I will be disappointed if they lose the series, because I feel they are capable of winning it.

They are- they can win it all. It all starts in one hour…

P.J. Tucker starting in place of Connaughton tonight.

Giannis on Kyrie to start? That's unexpected.

And 43 seconds in, Nash calls timeout and Harden heads to the locker room. He didn't look to be limping.

Get the rebounds… don’t turn the ball over

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

And 43 seconds in, Nash calls timeout and Harden heads to the locker room. He didn't look to be limping.

Business decision , much like Jones in the 3rd quarter of the TB game?

Lopez owns the glass…

Bucks need to keep pressing their advantage inside. They have no answer for the Bucks in the paint.

Pretty good sign to go 2 for 12 from 3 and still be up 2 after a quarter.

Blake Griffin cannot guard Giannis. It's not even a contest. Have to watch out for the flop charge call.

Keep attacking the paint…

Bucks 2 for 13 from three. The Nets are 6 for 13.

Middleton has started 2 for 9, but in fairness, he's been hacked on at least a couple of those shots with no call.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

Bucks 2 for 13 from three. The Nets are 6 for 13.

Middleton has started 2 for 9, but in fairness, he's been hacked on at least a couple of those shots with no call.

Of course

I wouldn't let Giannis play more than 5 feet from the paint in any direction. Between post ups, cuts, and rebounds he'll destroy them in there…

Holiday misses two FTs.

THey called that an offensive foul against Lopez? What?

Bucks now down 5. Giving up wide-open 3s over and over.

2 for 15 for the Bucks. Missed 11 3s in a row.

Forbes 0 for 4 with a bunch of wide-open looks

Bucks in danger of losing contact here. Now down 7.

2 for 15 from three will do that.

Why is Giannis settling for jumpers.? Just a horrible offensive quarter for the Bucks. Now down 9.

As good as Bryn Forbes was in round 1, he's been that bad tonight. If he's not hitting 3s, his defensive liabilities become tough to overcome.

Bucks cannot afford scoring droughts against this team.

Bucks missed 12 in a row from 3.

Good lord, Surprised they're not down even more & Kyrie is really hot right now

Bucks showing rust outside the paint… same as the Miami game 1.

Harden is done so this series over.  That being said we are shooting 13% from 3.

Bucks really only need one game of the first two to take control, yes?

I think Middleton might have to lose a leg or an arm to get a call.

Lopez - dunk the fricking ball right away.

There is no way that basket should have counted.

Also, Thanasis will play 0.1 seconds in the half. LOL

Bucks very lucky to be down 2 after that performance from 3.

If you are the Bucks you have to feel OK about where you are.  2 points down at half and 4/19 from 3 and Irving has been unconscious.   The Bucks have owned the 3Q.  

Helluva half… took their best shot, can’t make a basket to save their lives… down 2.

@Blair Kiel posted:

Bucks really only need one game of the first two to take control, yes?

Yes- you seize home court by getting one on the road. They say that any series doesn’t really start until a team wins a road game.

4 for 21 from three now.

Fight all the way back to get it to 2 and open the second half playing like crap on both ends. Pathetic start.

2nd on Giannis on a semi-flop

They’re suckering the Bucks into iso-ball…

The 4 guys that generally provide perimeter offense for the Bucks (Holiday, Middleton, Forbes, and Portis) are 11 for 37. Very lucky to still be within 5.

Still cold from 3, now 4 for 22.

@Music City posted:

They’re suckering the Bucks into iso-ball…

It would work if they just iso'd Lopez and Giannis down low. That's a good shot every single time.