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Draft AND Develop

This is the Packers way (Thompson, McCarthy, the whole organization)… some people don’t like it, but they need to embrace it. The problem I have with the Draft and Develop philosophy is when the guys you draft don’t develop or continue to improve, especially in their first 1-5 years on the team. Example #1 is AJ Hawk. 5th overall pick and a solid player his 1st and 2nd year, but he has not improved at all since he’s come into the league. I get Hawk plays every down and doesn’t get hurt, which for GB is saying something, but he is not an impact ILB and that is key to the Capers defensive scheme. Another example is someone like Jerron McMillian, 4th round draft pick in 2012 and now he’s washing cars or something.

 

Looking toward the Draft I think they’ll continue with picking Best Player Available in a Position of Need. In that mode they could pick just about any position except maybe QB and RB. Thompson might find an impact ILB in round 1 – someone like Mosely from ALA, or a S like Joyner from FlSt in the 2nd round… either could and should step in and play significant snaps for the Packers.

 

Looking at the Develop side of the equation… certainly some key players missing this year due to injury will help when they return: e.g. Matthews; Bulaga; Hayward. Further, looking at the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd year players, who are the guys who will step up in 2014?

 

Based on what I saw in 2013 I’d expect continued improvement from these year players who’ll be going into their 2nd season: Bakhtiari, Boyd, Hyde, Jones, Lacy, Tretter, Barrington, Franklin, Bostick, Harris – the guys I really like are Bakhtiari, Boyd, Hyde, Lacy (obviously), Barrington, and Bostick.

 

Some of the players going into their 2nd year - now that 2013 is done.

 

NAME

POS.

Bakhtiari, David

T

Banjo, Chris

S

Boyd, Josh

DE

Harper, Chris

WR

Hyde, Micah

CB

Jones, Datone

DE

Lacy, Eddie

RB

Mulumba, Andy

LB

Palmer, Nate

LB

  

Stoneburner, Jake

TE

Taylor, Lane

G

Tretter, JC

C/G

Barrington, Sam

LB

  

Dorsey, Kevin

WR

Franklin, Johnathan

RB

White, Myles

WR

Aiyewa, Victor

LB

Bostick, Brandon

TE

Harris, DuJuan

RB

Nixon, James

CB

 

 

The following players are going into their 3rd season, which is often the year players make the bigger jump – excluding RBs who can come in and contribute year 1.

There is no reason to believe this group of players going into 2014 won’t be significant contributors.

 

Barclay, Don

T/G

Boykin, Jarrett

WR

Daniels, Mike

DT

Perry, Nick

LB

Richardson, Sean

S

Worthy, Jerel

DE

Hayward, Casey

CB

Van Roten, Greg

G/C

 

 

 

Rodgers said on his show yesterday (1/7/14) that he believes there is a new window opening for the next 5 years and he said it is bright. Maybe he’s right...

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My question with the draft and develop philosophy has to do with the defensive side of the ball and whether Thompson has the right bridge from coaches over to the front office. 

 

On offense, that doesn't appear to be an issue but for whatever reason too many high draft picks are falling flat on defense. 

It's the injuries. Guys that were drafted to solve issues: Neal (2010), Perry (2012), Hayward (2012), Worthy (2012)- all early picks, all expected to be really important pieces, all lost for long stretches because of injuries. It's not the injuries themselves, but the experience and reps lost. Coaches can't coach guys in street clothes...

I'm going to start tempering my expectations.  Especially, for Heyward, showed great his rookie year, lost this year to a hammy, who knows what next year brings, but I don't think we can count on him producing great results next year.  As for some of the other guys (Worthy, Richardson, Daniels) will contribute.  If Bulaga comes back healthy, Barclay might not even start.  

The problem I have with this philosophy is the fact that TT has another which is to trade down and compile. He learned this, perhaps, from Ron Wolf. but it leads to a roster full of mediocrity. We should trade up and compete not trade down and compile.

Add to it Nick Perry struggling to stay healthy, and on offense injuries to Sherrod, Bulaga, Quarless, and Alex Green.  Lots of top picks missing much if not whole seasons.

 

How much better would the defense have been if Nick Collins never got the career-ending injury?

Originally Posted by lovepack:

The problem I have with this philosophy is the fact that TT has another which is to trade down and compile. He learned this, perhaps, from Ron Wolf. but it leads to a roster full of mediocrity. We should trade up and compete not trade down and compile.

AJ Hawk #5 overall

 

BJ Raji #9 overall

 

Justin Harell #16 overall

The Chargers came out of last year's draft with Melvin Ingram and Kendall Reyes while the Packers got Nick Perry and Jerrel Worthy.  TT's one truly aggressive trade brought Matthews.

 

I think there needs to be a mix. There needs to be a few true difference-makers on each side of the ball, but also solid depth. There also needs to be a few "grizzled vets" mixed in with the youth that have been around the block a few times and can let the youn'uns know the reality of the league.

 

A bunch of hungry young guys who don't know WTF they're doing is not a recipe for success. There needs to be balance.

Last edited by Herschel

The other day Tramon said he'd like more vets on D.

 

 

Found on internet...

Good news Tramon, all the young dudes drafted in the last 2 seasons will not only be vets, but they will also benefit from the leap players make from season 1-2 and from season 2-3. Talk about luck.

 

 

 

Originally Posted by Hungry5:

Found on internet...

Good news Tramon, all the young dudes drafted in the last 2 seasons will not only be vets, but they will also benefit from the leap players make from season 1-2 and from season 2-3. Talk about luck.

 

 

 

link

25% turnover next year means 13 new players. So with 20 free agents on the roster about 7 of those will be retained to allow for the newbies. Losing Rodgers for two months should have alerted management that they need to do a whole lot of work to put a great team together instead of a team with one or two great players.

Originally Posted by Herschel:

Only trade for the right person, not for the sake of trading obviously.

 

LOL

 

Because the right person is so easy to determine before the draft.

 

Why not just figure out who the one or 2 HOF players are that are going to come out of each draft and trade up and get them?

 

Hey, I should be a NFL GM!!!!   

 

I would never trade up for busts and hurt the team by wasting draft picks.

Well yeah, Duh.

 

Actually, on occasion go ahead and make an aggressive trade up when you've identified a difference maker you really like rather than settling on a marginal one later. Was not Matthews worth it?

I take the Mathews trade as proof that TT will do it when he finds a guy he is confident in.

 

I take that fact that he doesn't do it very often as proof that it is hard to find guys to have that much confidence in.

 

And what's been talked about for the past couple of years, that teams area afraid to trade with TT, since they think he will get the better of the trade.  

 

No problem though, just trade up and get difference makers, no matter the cost.  

Originally Posted by turnip blood:

Everyone who does not like the draft and develop philosophy needs to watch what will happen to New Orleans this off season and SF and Sea hags this season or next.

Also, on two of those teams, they are have good/great QB's who are performing extremely well, and are being paid peanuts.  Do you think they have the playmakers/depth once the QB's get paid market value?  The Packers are in that boat now, paying a Top QB, and having to adjust other parts of the roster, due to the $$$ being paid at one position.  This will happen to the Hags and 9'ers.   

The question about the Winners and Sea hags is how soon their QB will start agitating to get paid. Kamp makes 1.6 million a year Wilson .81 million.  This is football careers  can end in single  play. If I was either of those 2 I would want my 20 million dollar a year raise yesterday.

And by the way the Saints because of their miss managed salary cap will waist what's left of Brees carrier, it is all or nothing for them this year.

 

Ps the guys at PFT have a story about paying there players.

http://profootballtalk.nbcspor...plenty-of-guys-paid/

Last edited by turnip blood

Draft and develop is the way to do it in the age of high-priced free agency and the salary cap. But I think Thompson leans a little too heavily on it. He has had opportunities to pick up one or two guys in the same style he used to land Woodson and Pickett when he first arrived. 

 

But, like many of you have already said, injuries have really thrown a monkey wrench into the whole process. You can't predict/prevent them, and for whatever reason the Packers have seemed especially unlucky in that department. 

Originally Posted by lovepack:

The problem I have with this philosophy is the fact that TT has another which is to trade down and compile. 

Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman were both fifth round picks. The only thing wrong with his philosophy is his recent history of misses. Even if you factor in the injuries his record of late on the defensive side isn't particularly good. Never have cared for Worthy and picking a guy in the first with the intention of a position change is probably too big a risk to take.

Option A- be the Vikings.  Suck

 

option 2- Draft and develop, stay a playoff contender all the time. 

 

Alternative iii- suck for awhile, get a bunch of high picks, but no QB.  Wait until the last possible moment to find a QB so the QB doesn't tax you salary cap much but does play well.  Gut it out until said QB asks for a raise. 

 

Those seem to be the three models. 

Originally Posted by Herschel:

The Chargers came out of last year's draft with Melvin Ingram and Kendall Reyes while the Packers got Nick Perry and Jerrel Worthy.  TT's one truly aggressive trade brought Matthews.

 

I think there needs to be a mix. There needs to be a few true difference-makers on each side of the ball, but also solid depth. There also needs to be a few "grizzled vets" mixed in with the youth that have been around the block a few times and can let the youn'uns know the reality of the league.

 

A bunch of hungry young guys who don't know WTF they're doing is not a recipe for success. There needs to be balance.


DING! DING! DING!  Winner winner chicken dinner!

No matter which method that employed, the one problem with it is that a person makes the decisions.  So I will take the draft and develop.  It is the most consistent method. 

 

If you go with a lot of FAs, history says they may not play well either.  So a lot of maoney is spent for players that will be cut for non-performance.  Now you accumulate "dead money".  And that further hampers roster building efforts. 

 

I will further postulate that GMs are not as good at picking some position groups as that same GM would be at picking others.  TT could find WRs in 3rd world countries that would play well in GB.  But finding DL/LB is a different story.  Still, I agree with Music City that injuries have played to big a part.  I would love to have seen this team play a season with a few rather than many injuries. 

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