How to improve the Packer offense

@Fandame posted:

I don't know that we need a whole lot more explosive plays in that taking five yards at a crack gets you a first down pretty quickly. I'd like to see longer drives that suck the life out of defense. If they try to get too many explosive plays, I foresee a lot of second-and-10 and third-and-10s, and that is not a recipe for success with this team. I'd like to see Love go back to where he was at the end of 2023 (I know we all would), where he was happily and more accurately throwing five yards and watching it turn into 10.

Much like the three-pointer emphasis in basketball right now, I think analytics have a great influence over seeking "explosive plays". The two stats that are most predictive of a single game outcome are: 1) Turnover differential 2) Average yards gained per pass attempt. Back when I used to get a newspaper and all the NFL boxscores were in the Monday paper, I would track these two stats. What I found was that when a team won both, they won the game about 90-95% of the time. This is why you're hearing coaches constantly saying "we have to get more explosive plays".

Packers ran 3 play action plays vs Philly per Wilde and Tauscher

@FLPACKER posted:

Much like the three-pointer emphasis in basketball right now, I think analytics have a great influence over seeking "explosive plays". The two stats that are most predictive of a single game outcome are: 1) Turnover differential 2) Average yards gained per pass attempt. Back when I used to get a newspaper and all the NFL boxscores were in the Monday paper, I would track these two stats. What I found was that when a team won both, they won the game about 90-95% of the time. This is why you're hearing coaches constantly saying "we have to get more explosive plays".

When you need to execute 10-12 plays (or at least 8 or 9 or those 12) well enough to score a TD, a lot can go wrong to short circuit it. One holding call, a dropped pass, a false start, etc.

Long scoring drives are often beautiful to watch, but you only to execute well on one play when you hit a 70 yard bomb or your RB breaks a couple of tackles and goes to the house.

I have read that the best indicator of offensive success is explosive plays because of what you Michigan says - just takes one mistake by one player to derail a drive. So you're expecting 11 players to not make a mistake on 10 plays - that's 110 chances for a mistake. It's bound to happen. Explosive plays mitigate those mistakes.

I think this teams issue was two sided - they tried to hit too many explosive plays and missed them, and they struggled to take the 5 yard gains when they were there. Obviously need to get better at hitting the explosives but they really need to learn how to take what's there. Get the first down and give yourself 3 more chances. They just didn't go that last year. Too many deep shots on 3rd and 3.

That's the rub with attempting more explosive plays.  Just like 1 error on a 10 play drive, a missed explosive can also derail your drive.  Pick your poison.

If you have the players that can execute explosive plays (winning 1 on 1, usually with traits), you're golden (DET).  But if you don't, then you have to rely on 10 errorless plays where matriculating the ball depends more on consistency (KC).

Another related variable in this calculus is your D.  As other have called for, if your D is able to create more turnovers or 3-n-outs through being more aggressive but also more risky, your offense could get more chances to score.  The explosives on O shorten drives which shorten the rest your D gets and may make them more susceptible to bending/breaking.

Dump all that into the gameplan machine and tune it to the type of opponent you face (high or low offense, high or low defense) and you have your answers.

And a major problem with explosive plays it puts your defense right back out on the field. If they just got done with the other team doing a 10 -12 play 5 or 6 minute drive they need more rest than just a play or 2.

@R MaN posted:

Under center and more play action

This right here. There's more that can be done but I kept waiting for under center plays and they never happened. They just didn't seem to think his knee/groin/whatever wasn good enough to run plays under center. They were great with play action under center in 2023. Don't know if Jacobs playing style/preferences had any impact here.

@ammo posted:

And a major problem with explosive plays it puts your defense right back out on the field. If they just got done with the other team doing a 10 -12 play 5 or 6 minute drive they need more rest than just a play or 2.

I welcome seeing this "major problem" over and over again in 2025.

The worst thing that can happen after an explosive play for a TD is the other team scores a TD. That's the worst thing that can happen - IF it happens. Give me 20 TD's from 20 explosive plays and I can guarantee you right now that the defense does not allow 20 TD's in the following drives.

But only if the explosive scores a TD.  We know the problems Pack had in the red zone, 3 quick plays and kick a FG.  Other team gets an explosive play TD and now you are down 4 points.  Me, I like long time consuming drives to get the D some rest.  You just have to be good enough offensively to overcome any mistakes.

@PackerHawk posted:

This right here. There's more that can be done but I kept waiting for under center plays and they never happened. They just didn't seem to think his knee/groin/whatever wasn good enough to run plays under center. They were great with play action under center in 2023. Don't know if Jacobs playing style/preferences had any impact here.

This (lack of under center PA) may align with the possibility of the leg injury lingering/being an issue throughout the season.

@PackerHawk posted:

This right here. There's more that can be done but I kept waiting for under center plays and they never happened. They just didn't seem to think his knee/groin/whatever wasn good enough to run plays under center. They were great with play action under center in 2023. Don't know if Jacobs playing style/preferences had any impact here.

Mark Tauscher and Jason Wilde seem to think so.. Jacobs style and what he likes has to be married up with the passing game... that was their take for 2025

@PackerHawk posted:

I welcome seeing this "major problem" over and over again in 2025.

The worst thing that can happen after an explosive play for a TD is the other team scores a TD. That's the worst thing that can happen - IF it happens. Give me 20 TD's from 20 explosive plays and I can guarantee you right now that the defense does not allow 20 TD's in the following drives.

The worst that can happen is that you trade your explosive play TDs with the opponents long drive TDs and they manage to keep the game close going into the fourth quarter. Then your defense is shot because they’ve spent most of the game on the field.

At that point, big advantage for the team with the fresh D, even though they are giving up easy points.  And we’ve all seen games where one team lights it up on offense until a competent defensive coordinator figures out how to stop the big plays.

Not that I’m against explosive plays, but I think there’s something to be said for keeping your defense off the field so they’re not wiped out towards the end of the game.

I know all of this because I coached my boy’s soccer team for three seasons a few years ago….ok, two seasons.  And it was ten years ago. Damn, time flies! The little fu*%er has gone off to college now. At least I still have x4….until I get banned for being right all the time and fearless with my daggers. 😊

Carry on!

I was told there was no math when I signed up at TimesFour.

@4 Favre posted:

I too have a share I'm starting to think maybe I should have gotten the Bitcoin instead.

No way, that stuff’s as real as fairy dust. As for myself, I am hoarding Monopoly money. As soon as it becomes recognized as legal tender I am set for life. And then I’ll buy X4 and each of you will get a brand new Cadillac in green and gold!

Meme  coins is where it’s at.

Land. About 50-75 miles from the Texas/Gulf of Mexico coastline. Ice caps melt, oceams rise, it all becomes ocean front property.

Where is the Gulf of Mexico?

Where it's always been, for about 300 million years now.

@ammo posted:

But only if the explosive scores a TD. 

How else does the defense go right back on the field after an explosive play?

Are you telling me you weren't inferring a TD? Because if it's not a TD or a turnover there's AT LEAST 4 more plays to follow.

Anyway, I welcome MORE explosive plays in 2025. And every year to follow.

@bdplant posted:

The worst that can happen is that you trade your explosive play TDs with the opponents long drive TDs and they manage to keep the game close going into the fourth quarter. Then your defense is shot because they’ve spent most of the game on the field.

At that point, big advantage for the team with the fresh D, even though they are giving up easy points.  And we’ve all seen games where one team lights it up on offense until a competent defensive coordinator figures out how to stop the big plays.

If this was Joe Barry's defense in 2023, I'd agree 110%.

But this was year one of Haffley and he gave us a top 10 defense. And it's going to improve as they weed out the bad 4-3 fits and bring in even more guys that they didn't draft for Joe Barry's passive defense.

Josh Jacobs is still a Packer. And they have redshirt Marshawn Lloyd. And Wilson. And likely another guy they will add to keep that RB room young and evolving. More explosive plays? Fuck yes. The Packers aren't being coached by McCarthy anymore. LaFluer is not afraid to run and posses the ball for long periods of time. But give me some explosive plays in the mix. You guys can try to spin this all you want but explosive plays are needed if you want to win a Super Bowl.

Actually the worst thing that an happen is your offense goes 3 and out and your defense gives up explosive plays.

If your defense complains b/c the offense scores too fast, then you have the wrong guys on defense.