Jordy Nelson's Hall of Fame chances

It's a stretch. His receiving numbers are similar to Mike Wallace's and he's not even in the top five among active receivers in TDs.

In his first 45 games, Jordy only scored 6 touchdowns. In his last 36 games, he has 32 touchdowns. In his last 35 games, Wallace has 6 touchdowns. While their career stats are somewhat similar, it's clear that Wallace is nowhere near as productive as Nelson is now. 

I look at trends. Since 2011, only Dez Bryant has more TD Receptions (63) than Nelson's 62 in all the NFL. And Bryant has played 8 more games, and has had 108 more targets to get that one TD. 

And those active receivers with more TDs? Antonio Gates, a tight end, has 112, but has played since 2003, appearing in 207 games. He's ancient. Larry Fitzgerald has played since 2004, and has played in 205 games. Brandon Marshall has 82 since 2006 in 170 games. Rob Gronkowski is a freak, from a statistical standpoint. 70 TD in 91 games since 2010. Then, there's Dez Bryant. Since 2010, he's scored 69 times via pass in 100 games. 

68 TD receptions in 125 games for Nelson matches up well against any other receiver in the game. And, again, he's still in his prime, and scoring at a ridiculous pace. 

Only HOF player presently on the roster is the QB.

No way - Lane Taylor is a lock.

Jordy would have to play & be productive for about 5 more years at least

I think there are a couple of things that will work against him.  He plays WR and recently it has been really tough for them to get in to the HOF.  Players like Chris Carter took too long to get in there and I believe that Owens should be in there as well.   I also think the era he plays in makes it tough for WR's and the fact that someone who will be voting will say "well he benefitted from Rodgers".  Which we all know will probably be the case.

Packers HoF....absolutely!

His chances today would be slim....lots of career left tho.

His best chance is to become a media talking head like Cris Carter after his career is over.

The Heckler posted:

I think there are a couple of things that will work against him.  He plays WR and recently it has been really tough for them to get in to the HOF.  Players like Chris Carter took too long to get in there and I believe that Owens should be in there as well.   I also think the era he plays in makes it tough for WR's and the fact that someone who will be voting will say "well he benefitted from Rodgers".  Which we all know will probably be the case.

Not arguing with you but with that sentiment...I bet if you look up any of the QB's throwing to the WR's in the HOF you'll find a lot of really good QB's.  It is tough to get in at WR these days as there are so many with big stats.  Jordy's differentiator unfortunately is not a stat.  His masterpieces making plays along the sideline from about 2011 through 2014 is as good or better than any WR I've seen play going back to Lofton's era.  Chris Carter had a similar knack but lacked Jordy's vertical ability.  How many times have those catches been highlighted in separate segments on various networks.  His body control, toughness and success pulling in those passes along the sideline separates him from any other IMHO.   And it's not like that's all he can do.  He's excelled in other facets of the position as well.

If he retired today, I don't think he gets in.  But that's the story I'd tell.

And he's faster than he looks.

Packers Hall Of Fame... of course.  Pro Football HOF?  I'd use the line from Peter King "Hall of Very Good" but not hall of fame.  I think he'll get some votes when it's all said and done, but probably not enough to actually get in. 

YATittle posted:

His best chance is to become a media talking head like Cris Carter after his career is over.

Poor Jordy! Who'd want to be like Cris Carter, in anything? I hope Jordy makes the HOF. Being named MVP of a Super Bowl might help get him into the HOF.

Peter King voted for Carnell Lake for MVP.  Just saying. 

DH13 posted:

The Heckler posted:

I think there are a couple of things that will work against him.  He plays WR and recently it has been really tough for them to get in to the HOF.  Players like Chris Carter took too long to get in there and I believe that Owens should be in there as well.   I also think the era he plays in makes it tough for WR's and the fact that someone who will be voting will say "well he benefitted from Rodgers".  Which we all know will probably be the case.

Not arguing with you but with that sentiment...I bet if you look up any of the QB's throwing to the WR's in the HOF you'll find a lot of really good QB's.  It is tough to get in at WR these days as there are so many with big stats.  Jordy's differentiator unfortunately is not a stat.  His masterpieces making plays along the sideline from about 2011 through 2014 is as good or better than any WR I've seen play going back to Lofton's era.  Chris Carter had a similar knack but lacked Jordy's vertical ability.  How many times have those catches been highlighted in separate segments on various networks.  His body control, toughness and success pulling in those passes along the sideline separates him from any other IMHO.   And it's not like that's all he can do.  He's excelled in other facets of the position as well.

If he retired today, I don't think he gets in.  But that's the story I'd tell.

Totally agree with you.  I do think there are some positives for his chances though.  The first would be how much longer he plays.  If he plays say another 5-6 years and if he can get in the neighborhood of 800 catches and 9,000+ yards I think he could have a shot.  And I do believe that there is a media bias thing against WR's and Jordy shouldn't have that problem.

I love Jordy as a player, but I don't think he's going to get serious consideration as an NFL HOFer. He's currently tied for 44th in career TD catches and isn't in the top 100 in yards or catches. More importantly, he's made one Pro Bowl.

Here's a relevant comparison.

Player 1 - 10 seasons, 571 catches, 8291 yards, 64 TDs, 2 Pro Bowls. 1 Super Bowl ring

Player 2 - 9 seasons, 514 catches, 7572 yards, 68 TDs, 1 Pro Bowl. 1 Super Bowl ring.

Player 3 - 14 seasons (12 as full time player), 743 catches, 10,137 yards, 61 TDs, 3 Pro Bowls, 1 Super Bowl ring.

Player 4 - 9 years (8 as a full time player), 477 catches, 7251 yards, 61 TDs, 1 Pro Bowl, 1 Super Bowl ring.

Do any of these guys make the HOF? Almost no chance. Player 1 is Greg Jennings, Player 2 is Jordy, Player 3 is Donald Driver, and Player 4 is Antonio Freeman.  

As someone said, let's say Jordy plays 2 more years after this and ends up with 750 catches, 10,000 yards, and 80 TDs. He'll basically have Driver's numbers. I think those of us that watched all the Packer games would say that Nelson was probably the best of those 4, but HOF voters will look at the fact they had top 10 QBs all time throwing them passes and discount a lot of the stats.

The other thing is that none of those guys (even Jordy) measure up to the Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald type level where they were just unstoppable at times during their careers. Some of those guys were terrible teammates and divas, but they were transcendent talents on the level as WRs that Favre and Rodgers were as QBs.

I can't argue with that last paragraph.  But I'd still take peak 87 over any of them along the sideline.  I can't find the clip but that catch vs. NYG a few years ago was one of the 5 most impressive catches I have ever seen.  He spun 360 in the air, catches the ball at the end of the spin and drops his feet inbounds while rest of him is still spinning out of bounds.  There have been other crazy circus-like with an element of dumb luck catches that more people remember but that catch vs. NYG was all effort and talent.  People can argue about certain WR's benefiting from great QB's but sometimes QB's benefit from great WR's.  It's been a mutually beneficial relationship between 12 and 87.

Who knows what criteria the Hall will be using for skill position players by the time Jordy is eligible? Getting another ring or two would bolster his chances immeasurably. I do think he is every bit as good as all but a handful of WRs to ever play.

IMO you can make a case that Jordy is the best WR in Packer history not named Don Hutson. Certainly the most well rounded as a player because Jordy can do EVERYTHING -- I mean EVERYTHING -- you want a WR to do including grunt work like blocking, leadership and mentoring. I think he, Lofton, Sharpe, and Boyd Dowler are the greatest WRs in GB history after Hutson.

Jordy would have to string together 3-4 consecutive 100 reception/1,400 yard seasons to start getting into the HOF conversation. But I'm really whatever on the Hall to be honest. If the Hall includes Jerry Jones but not Jerry Kramer I'm pretty much whatever about the entire place. I certainly don't need Jordy to be in the HOF to appreciate his career in GB. 

I do know Jordy is one of the best draft picks the Packers ever made. Like last year. Jordy is leading the NFL in TDs. He's going to catch 16-20 again this year. He helps make Rodgers go in that he's Rodgers security blanket. Rodgers isn't the same QB, and the offense isn't the same, when Jordy doesn't play. 

It's been a damned privilege watching Jordy Nelson play football. 

Dr._Bob posted:

And he's faster than he looks.

That's just racist.

ilcuqui posted:

Who knows what criteria the Hall will be using for skill position players by the time Jordy is eligible? Getting another ring or two would bolster his chances immeasurably. I do think he is every bit as good as all but a handful of WRs to ever play.

IMO you can make a case that Jordy is the best WR in Packer history not named Don Hutson. Certainly the most well rounded as a player because Jordy can do EVERYTHING -- I mean EVERYTHING -- you want a WR to do including grunt work like blocking, leadership and mentoring. I think he, Lofton, Sharpe, and Boyd Dowler are the greatest WRs in GB history after Hutson.

Agree except I would not place Dowler in there.  In any case, I'll be cheering for Jordy!  Go Jordy!!!!

Before he writes his Canton speech, I'd like to see him stop dropping the f'ing ball. 

Nelson has had more drops recently than the norm for him. If his leg is still bothering him on cuts and stops, that could disrupt his concentration.