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I'm glad he got paid, truly am, but they just released how the deal is structured and it looks like the Packers are planning on Rodgers being gone by 2022...

Cap hits:

2020 - $6.7 million

2021 - $7.1 million

2022 - $21 million (Rodgers' cap hit in 2022 is about $40 million).

@NumberThree posted:

I'm glad he got paid, truly am, but they just released how the deal is structured and it looks like the Packers are planning on Rodgers being gone by 2022...

 

Or maybe they just restructure Rodgers at that point - isn't that pretty typical?

@scoop posted:

Or maybe they just restructure Rodgers at that point - isn't that pretty typical?

Definitely a possibility, but I doubt he would want to restructure his contract given how badly they are forcing him out the door after signing him to a contract to lead the team through the end of his career but then refusing to draft help and instead trading up to draft his replacement under a guaranteed contract.

Also, Cousins' contract is up in 2022 and he becomes an UFA in 2023... just saying... we've been down this road before.

 

OK. Not that I fully believe my own position here, but how about this take: They DID draft help for Rodgers by continuing to focus on the run game. They have already shown that they will attack defenses with backs on pass routes as well. This compensates for their shallow WR corps.

Keep in mind that the most efficient play in pro football is the play-action pass. The better your run game, the easier it is to throw the ball. Also, backs typically come up to speed much faster in the NFL than WRs.

Finally, while I don't at all discount the possibility that the Love pick was partly intended to light a fire under Rodgers, I think it's sensible to draft a QB when they did - if you wait until you need a quarterback to get one, you probably waited too long.

Last edited by scoop
@scoop posted:

 

OK. Not that I fully believe my own position here, but how about this take: They DID draft help for Rodgers by continuing to focus on the run game. They have already shown that they will attack defenses with backs on pass routes as well. This compensates for their shallow WR corps.

Keep in mind that the most efficient play in pro football is the play-action pass. The better your run game, the easier it is to throw the ball. Also, backs typically come up to speed much faster in the NFL than WRs.

Finally, while I don't at all discount the possibility that the Love pick was partly intended to light a fire under Rodgers, I think it's sensible to draft a QB when they did - if you wait until you need a quarterback to get one, you probably waited too long.

I agree that you need to go more run heavy with an older QB, but they needed to do something more than they did at WR/TE. Adams is great, but I would bet that once you get past Adams they have would what most scouts would consider the worst WR/TE group in the NFL. The only way this assessment is wrong is that MVS was hurt last year and is actually a much better player and that Sternberger is going to break out in Year 2. If we want to be kind, we'll give them the benefit of the doubt. 

Rodgers missed some throws last year to open guys that were well-designed plays against zone-type coverages, but watching the last regular-season game in person last year the thing that stuck out was the inability of anyone other than Adams to get any separation on bump and run/man coverage. Lazard made some nice plays, but it was on throws where he had no separation and had a size advantage to allow him to go make a play. 

Everything's connected, so if the safeties aren't going to fear getting beat deep by anyone other than Adams, the run game is not going to be as effective. MVS has to be the guy that does that. 

Well, I agree with all of that. Though they did spring Lazard a couple of times after he started getting reps - wasn't it against Detroit that he caught a deep post for an easy TD? But yeah, for the most part he doesn't have the speed or the route skills to get much separation.

What kind of speed does EQ have? He was the guy that I thought two years ago would emerge from that trio they drafted (Moore, MVS, EQ) and become the #2 guy.

Last edited by scoop

I agree that you need to go more run heavy with an older QB, but they needed to do something more than they did at WR/TE. Adams is great, but I would bet that once you get past Adams they have would what most scouts would consider the worst WR/TE group in the NFL.

MVS was hurt as you noted and the 2 worst pass catchers, Allison and Graham are gone. And most scouts and national media forgot all about EQ, but that will change once the season gets under way. I agree that the current view of the Packers WR/TE is that they are the worst, but I disagree with that assessment because in many ways its fantasy-football driven

Many fans are under the impression that the Packers will run MORE in 2020, but the big change already happened as GB moved up from 32nd in attempts to 16.
They may move up a little more, but its a difference in degree vs a difference in kind that we saw in the changeover from MM to MLF

Rodgers wants single high, that makes his life easier and the best way to get single high is to have a running game that commands respect and forces a DC to put a Safety in the box. And look what happened in the draft ? MLF got the players he wants to run his offense - an offense that is based on the illusion of complexity and the ability to run/pass with equal aplomb from the same formation and personnel packages.

That's why GB not only drafted Deguarra, but also grabbed John Lockett as well - that tells you how critical that flexible TE/FB position is to MLF and his offense.

Packer fans, national media and the scouts are all having a hard time adjusting to an offense that isn't WR-centric. This offense makes it easier on AR and helps the passing game by putting the DC into a no- win situation. If he puts his run defense on the field, AR throws. If he puts his nickle/dime package on the field, AR runs the ball. 

“I think it’s week-to-week. You’re always trying to find the best way to move the football,” LaFleur said in an interview on Wilde and Tausch.

“I personally think it’s more of having plays that play off each other, just so you keep the defense off balance, whether it’s running the ball 10 times in a game or running the ball 50 times in a game, it really doesn’t matter to me.”

This play embodies what LaFleur wants his offense to be: big personnel, pre-snap motion, play-action, and a layup throw for the QB with run-after-catch opportunity for the offense’s top players

 

@NumberThree posted:

Definitely a possibility, but I doubt he would want to restructure his contract given how badly they are forcing him out the door after signing him to a contract to lead the team through the end of his career but then refusing to draft help and instead trading up to draft his replacement under a guaranteed contract.

Also, Cousins' contract is up in 2022 and he becomes an UFA in 2023... just saying... we've been down this road before.

Nice - "how badly they are forcing him out the door". Do you work for Cowherd or Florio? 

Restructure is a real possibility if Rodgers stays relatively healthy and continues to get comfortable with MiLFs offense. He turns 39 near the end of the '22 season. Health will be the key as I don't see 1 of the younger guys beating him out on ability.

Disagree that they refused to draft help (scenarios others have noted). They also drafted WR heavy in '18, with MVS and EQ still with the team. Strong indication that MVS is ready to break out in this his 3rd season. I have no reason to believe they are lacking at the WR position. 

link

“We will be looking at the next couple of weeks what packages seem to fit our personnel, but I would expect a good amount of ’12,’ just based on the talent that we have at that position,” Rodgers said after Monday’s practice.

“Robert Tonyan coming back from his injury, I think it’s been really good. Jace going into Year 2. And obviously we added (Josiah) to the mix as a versatile guy that could do a number of things for us,” Rodgers said.

Coach Matt LaFleur often talks about the “illusion of complexity,” an idea rooted in looking complex to a defense while doing otherwise simple things offensively. The tight end plays a huge role in creating the illusion, given the two-way nature of the position. 

The idea is simple: Attempt to force the defense to sub out a defensive back for a linebacker, and then attack down the field against a slower grouping.

And if the defense stay in nickel, run the ball with the obvious advantage.

@scoop posted:

Well, I agree with all of that. Though they did spring Lazard a couple of times after he started getting reps - wasn't it against Detroit that he caught a deep post for an easy TD? But yeah, for the most part he doesn't have the speed or the route skills to get much separation.

What kind of speed does EQ have? He was the guy that I thought two years ago would emerge from that trio they drafted (Moore, MVS, EQ) and become the #2 guy.

Here are the stills from Lazard's two TD catches against Detroit (one at home and one at Ford Field). Great throws and great plays by Lazard to fight off defenders and/or go up to make these catches, but not much separation. He does beat a very good CB in Slay on the one in Detroit. 

Allen Lazard 2020 Dynasty Outlook - RotoHeatCan't-Miss Play: QB Rodgers tosses dime to WR Lazard for TD

 

Thanks. I was thinking of this one, as it turns out, against NYG:

https://www.12up.com/posts/vid...condary-01dv1c7bp6m9

I believe that's what they call the post-corner route? Lazard makes a slight feint to the post, the DB turns his hips that way, and it's all over.

Last edited by scoop

Russ Ball designed this contract well. The cap hits in 2021 account for the expected drop in cap before going back up in 2022. I still don’t know if I support this weird front office structure, but I’ll give credit to Ball when it’s due. Time and again, he’s structured these deals beautifully for the Packers and the players 

@scoop posted:

Or maybe they just restructure Rodgers at that point - isn't that pretty typical?

Or they anticipate a big jump in the cap in 2022. After what will likely be a cap recession in 2021. 

They could also be counting on the league doing something to account for these huge QB contracts. Like a separate cap for the QB position or some kind of cap exemption or credit for your highest paid player. 

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