Looking Ahead to the 2014 Offseason

You have must the day off, retired or began writing this last week.  Lots of info. 

It has been a slow day at the office. Then again when you work for the Red Cross, slow days tend to be a good thing...no disasters!

I thought the Pack has unused cap space in 2013 that they can use in 2014. I thought it may have even been as high as $10 million.

 

That would create some extra wiggle room.

 

I would think Williams is done. I would think Shields, not Raji, is the top guy to resign. The way Boykin is playing, wouldn't shock me to see them not press for Jones (again) and instead focus on extending Nelson for a few more years.

Agree on Williams contract. Agree on Raji probably being elsewhere.

 

I think it is going to take more than a minimum contract to bring Pickett back.

Great Breakdown, thanks GD!

I think they'll resign Raji. But he'll need to show something down the stretch this season. 

GD, superb analysis and an excellent read.  Thanks for doing.  Agree with all your key points on free agency, and like your initial draft projections.  Assuming/hoping we get a compensatory pick or two.  Wouldn't you agree our net losses will warrant?

Good post and timely, we need to get these last few weeks out of our minds.  I note that a big part of the team is missing in your analysis,  Dom Capers.  Back or not?  

Good stuff GD. I'm torn on Raji. Think the $$$ might be too high to justify bringing him back. Shields should be signed. 

 

Completely agree with your draft targets. Middle of the field (ILB and S) should be priorities. TE wouldn't hurt either. I'm holding out hope that Hyde or Richardson might be the safety help GB needs along side Burnett.

 

Could be a completely different looking roster in 2014. 

From what I have read the new CBA has some significant changes in how the cap is calculated.  None of the stories I have read does a good job explaining how the new cap works because I suspect  math is not a sports writers strong suit. I am in no way sure what the changed are but I know their are changed.

The few  snippets  I have read report the NFL now uses a 3 year average to calculate  cap space .  In essence that means unused cap space from the previous two years can be rolled forward. For any three year period teams must spend 95% of their cap. There must be a bunch of rules about the rollover but again I have not  seen any good analyze of the new CBA rules.

 

From the little I know I think the Packers still have 6.7 in unspent cap space this year. That 6.7 million will rollover into next year number. The Packers may have more like 20 million in cap space next year.

Good post Turnip and good catch Rockin Robin. I have made some adjustments and edits to figure in the projected cap rollover. Again these just projections from some of the research I have done so don't take these numbers as concrete. We really won't no 100% for sure what we're looking at until we see it. The rollover gives us some extra room, but it's still not a ton of room.

 

Raji just hasn't proven himself to be irreplaceable. If he made an impact like Vince Wilfork then I would be hesitant to let him walk, but he hasn't made that big of an impact. And I'm not just talking stats or numbers, he hasn't been a force or made any kind of critical difference. He has easily been outplayed by Johnny Jolly and Mike Daniels this year. 

I don't see a TT drafting a TE in RD1, nor do I see one out there that would justify it.  They also need to address WR as some point in the draft.  I think they approach Tramon with a restructure and it will be interesting to see what kind of demand there is for his services.  With Heyward having a potentially chronic hammy issue and House still looking up and down in his third year, what looked like a position of strength may need another higher round pick.  The D would really suffer if they lose SS.

To my own eyes, losing a guy like Raji would be no great loss.  But that said, if the Packers were willing to give him 8 million dollars a year, he must be better than I perceive him to be.

 

The guys I'd love to keep would be Jolly, Shields, Dietrich-Smith (wow would not have thought this before the year started), James Jones, Lattimore, Starks, and potentially Flynn if he continues to look as good as he did yesterday.

 

Shields will be the toughest to sign I think.  I've heard his agent wants to make a big splash and he probably won't take a hometown discount.  Hopefully that's not true, but it's just something I've heard in some discussions on some other boards. 

After 3 years of poor performance, there's housecleaning to do. It would not surprise me to see Raji leave- he's not the answer. Pickett may be a casualty- his performance has dropped each of the last  2 years.

Williams is gone. House is gone. Neal is in his first season at OLB. You tender him and keep him to see where it goes. Jones- gone.

Then you draft an ILB to pair with Hawk. Draft a corner as always, draft a WR, draft a NT, draft a DE.

And this year, you sign a FA veteran like a more in his prime Pickett.

Reload this D. No more of the current guys like House et al... Time to move on.

They're still draft and develop first and foremost so House won't be gone. Neal is a UFA I believe so there's no tendering him, you either re-sign him or let him walk. 

GD safety has to be the target in next years draft.

The Packers still have the tag, Shields or Raji are the 2 guys that may draw it.

 

Neither Raji or Shields are worth close to what the Franchise Tag would pay them. You're sacrificing a lot to keep Raji @ $8+ million for 1 year. Same with Shields although Shields is closer to being worth it. 

 

There are options if we're looking for an athletic TE like Finley. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (Washington) looks like a great option in round 1, there are legit comparisons to Rob Gronkowski. Big, bulky TE with a basketball background and catches everything thrown his way. I'd take him in a heartbeat. The best option though would probably to take CJ Fiedorowicz (Iowa) in round 2, he's the most complete TE in the draft. 

I don't think they're going to cut their best ILB who they just signed to a contract extension. Wouldn't make sense.

 

I do think they'll be looking for a ILB to draft though. There's a lot of good middle round talent at LB coming out this year. 

 

And I agree of Sefarian-Jenkins. That guy is legit. He would be an instant upgrade over Finley, IMO. I was kind of high on Brandon Bostick but he's struggled in run blocking and dropped a few passes on Sunday. 

nice post diggr.   MariRaji is gone.   He Peaked our Superbowl season and has regressed since.

Raji may be back as I can't see another team paying him much. Could be relatively inexpensive. If another team does step up and give him big $$$$$$, congrats to him and we wish you well.

Take Raji, Finley, Shields of the Packers free agent list they have plenty of money to sign the rest, especially if they do something with Williams contract.  I can see the Packers tagging Raji or Shields for a year. They may have to spend the money any ways to get within the required 95% minimum.

 

Very thorough,  and I think for the most part, accurate analysis.  I would let Williams go and try my best to keep Shields.  I also think this is the year that they can't afford to try to fix everything through the draft.  TT and MM have a shortening window in which Rodgers makes this team a perennial contender, and he is able to hide a lot of warts but not all of them.  Not sure what the veteran FA market is like at safety, but they really need to pick someone up with experience instead of waiting another three years for a draft pick to develop.  The defensive backfield is killing this team and they need a real leader back there.

 

I'd like to see them keep James Jones...I think he is an important part of this offense and I think Rodgers likes, and has great chemistry with, him.

Great post, GD.  Appreciate the breakdown..

 

Not to trying to derail the thread.. But WTF is with this?  Whoever does the scoring of Packers games for PFF may have an alcohol problem.

 

"He's a good Center, the top pass blocking C in the NFL according to PFF (pretty bad run blocker though). "

That is completely backwards from what I have seen this season.   Look at the 1rst play of last weeks game.  Doesn't have the quickness or mental awareness to pick up the delayed blitz (may have been stunt but whatever) on the PA pass and Z gets destroyed.  He has looked reaaly good at times in the run game, but some of that could be attributed to the guard play allowing him to get to 2nd level. 

Anyway, great post.  I would sign EDS to a deal as well.  Simply because we don't know what we have in Tretter yet and depth at Oline is a always a priority when you have the leagues best QB.

I would let pretty much everyone else walk, even JJ, except for Shields, Neal, Jolly, Starks and Latimore.  This includes cutting Tramon. 

Be a bit wary of PFF rankings. They had Antoine Winfield as one of the best last year and this year nobody wants him.

 

I think a lot depends on what they plan to do with coverage. Tramon and Shields are better in man but they tend to struggle in zone. Zone corners are generally more "interchangeable" as they don't need the burst and fluidity of man corners but need better awareness/anticipation of the rest of the field. The Packers were running more combination coverage with Shields and Williams healthy (see Chicago with Tramon all over Brandon Marshall) but they may not feel the need to allocate big bucks there if they go more zone.

Raji coming back or not may depend on the next DC if capers is axed. I would like to know how raji would do if his job was not taking on double teams so that hawk can make a tackle 10 yards down the field.

Yeah, I'm really disappointed by his play. He spends a lot of time with his kiester  on the ground. Whatever he was doing in his daily routine in 2010, I'd like to see him resume it. That guy looked like he was going to be a world beater for a long time in those good ol' days

I'd like to see Hawk gone at any price, his perceived value in aligning guys in the defense is about as worthless as teets on a boar ...

 

Get him the eff out of here, I use to give him the benefit of the doubt, The guy is the most non-physical, non-speedy ILB in the NFL for a "starter".

Cripes some teams have starting SS's more physical than Hawk.

Yeah, what about coaches in 2014?

 

 

 

 

Cut Tramon Williams, and let everyone but Jones and Shields walk unless they're willing to take reasonable contracts. I like Raji, but he's just not good enough to justify a big contract. Even if he plays elite football over the next 5 games and into the playoffs, I'd still be wary about giving him a blockbuster deal if I were Thompson.

We need to get Shields back!

I really like what PFF offers. Keep in mind they break down and score every play for each player so while EDS may have had a couple bad plays, overall he may have had a positive game. The only time you notice OL is when they make a mistake.

As for talking about Winfield, you have to look at the context of their ratings. His scores in coverage weren't that great, but his run support was so good it boosted his overall score. You have to look at the breakdowns instead of the overall score.

It may very well come down to who an possible new defensive coordinator may be and what scheme he runs.  He'll look at a lot of tape and see who fits his system and who doesn't.  Then take opinion to TT and MM and they'll decide who stays no matter what salary demands within reason, who stays based on what they want and who goes even if they offer to play for free.

I think Shields ends up getting closer to 7 per and I think he's worth spending it to keep him.  

 

Tramon gets the adjustment deal. I don't have anything against the guy but I think he brings about 0 in the leadership quotient.  It's  speculation, but I can't ever remember reading a story where he takes a guy under his wing or young players are praising him for his help.  Usually that stuff finds its way into the press.  

Mike Neal is gone.  If you're paying someone to develop it just makes sense that it's a younger, cheaper guy.  Perry is the starter unless they draft someone and there's not enough value in paying for what Neal brings to the olb position.  I'd imagine that's almost a half million savings if you go with a draft class guy.   Malumba has looked pretty good to me so far for where he's at.  He's going to need more snaps next year.  

Safety is a mess and the draft and develop philosophy means they're in a tough spot.  Safeties fail all the time.  I think the greatest value in finding a great one is not having to waist all the draft picks and more importantly development time trying to get one.   Patience is required to build one up.  Unless they find a special one in the draft we're looking at a 33-34 year old  Rodgers  by the time one gets fully developed.   

 

If EDS is smart he takes whatever they offer him.  There's not a hint of competition and the way the Packers handle their roster he's guaranteed two years of starting as long as he stays healthy.  I think he comes back easy and cheaper than expected. 

I think Capers comes back.  The Packers are intensely loyal to their people.  Capers helped them win a Superbowl and it's just natural that the people he won it with think he still has the ability, they know he's competent, and they know the kind of players they're putting on the field. 

 

If it's me looking at this defense the emotional side says the coaches aren't getting it done, but the rational side tells me that the players that are out there right now just aren't very good. MM tells TT he wants to keep Capers and TT most likely isn't going to tell MM to get rid of him.

 

TT strikes me as the kind of guy who will feel he didn't perform well getting Capers players.  I think the organization wants to give him a chance to redeem himself with a fair roster.

Big TE talent Eric Ebron just announced he'll enter the draft.

will most likely be a first rounder. 

 

as big prick of a kid, but can play football. 

I wouldnt be surprised if Ted looks TE early in the draft.

Quarless and Bostick just arent the Red zone threats this offense needs.

 

other than that, we need major help on the OL and Def.

would love to land an impact LB like CJ Mosely

or S like Clinton-Dix

 

The 2014 offseason will be very interesting for a lot of teams!

Raji, Shields, And Tramon will get the bulk of attention from fans and media alike, but there are quite a few of the younger, "lesser known" players I hope we can retain as well.

 

I'm going to personally assume that Finley and Newhouse will be 2 who will definitely be released. Finley because of his injury/cap risk, and Newhouse because....well, he's Newhouse.

I also think what happens with certain players will affect the contract status of others; primarily, if Raji is re-signed, it's doubtful Pickett gets a contract, and if Shields gets paid, Tramon likely won't.

2 guys I do think need to be re-signed are James Jones and EDS. Both have great value at modest numbers, and are proven players. EDS also has experience at G, and would be a valubale backup if another starter emerges.

Just a personal opinion, I hope they keep Jolly. I believe he indeed makes a difference on the defense, and, again, will have good value at modest numbers.

 

I understand BPA, and you can't pass up the right player regardless of the position he plays, but I hope we can get as many LB's in the draft as we can. I'd be floored if we could get one that could replace Hawk immediately, but it would be great if that came to be. In any case, we've got to get way faster at LB before the defense can improve.

I also would prefer not to see another OL taken in first/early rounds. We've got way too many of them on the roster, and have received little ROI thus far. The talent to build a solid OL is there; we've just got to develop them or cut bait if they can't fish.

Great overview, GD. I think they bring EDS back at any price, which is hopefully reasonable. This is the best O-line they've had in years, and QB12 has sung the praises of EDS before he was even starting. He seems to have sway.

 

Jones is only back if he finds the same market he did last time. Boykin has arguable outplayed him, and Nelson and Cobb are due to get bumps. Jones seems to fall into the replaceable fringe of a draft and develop philosophy that pays the guys you can't live without.

 

While blocking has never been a priority for TEs in this offense, that likely will and should be a big factor in the next one they bring in. I say keep Bostick on the cheap as the receiving threat, and find a legit two-way TE for 2014. Thanks for your time, God's Gifts.

 

I'd like to see Tramon back on a reduced deal. No one will pay him what he's set to make next year, so I think GB is as likely to be in on the bidding as anyone. Maybe $3M a year?

 

I think you have to pay Shields whatever the market rate is. Raji depends on what they are doing on D. I can't see breaking the bank if they want him to continue gobbling up blockers, but if he's allowed to penetrate and get after QBs, he'll be worth every penny he ends up getting.

That's the thing about Raji, I wouldn't be opposed to paying him if he was offering more than just being a run stuffer. Guys like Wilfork and Ngata earned their big contracts by pressuring the QB from the interior. He's just not collapsing the pocket like a high dollar DT should be. Is he being used properly by Capers? I have no idea, but he's getting a lot of snaps for having little to no production. That tells me he's just eating up blockers, allowing other guys to make plays. That's great that he's doing that, but you don't break the bank for that kind of player unless he's playing like Justin Smith or Haloti Ngata. Right now Raji isn't playing like those guys. 

http://profootballtalk.nbcspor...apers-and-his-staff/

Not sure how much this means, what else is MM going to say if there is any possibility that Capers may be kept. Then again it is strange that MM would go out of his way to say Capers is doing a good job.

Thanks for the read GD, always interesting stuff looking to the future.  

 

Agree on just about everything you wrote.  A few hot button issues:

 

Hawk: He has to go.  I've been saying it for years and even after his "breakout" game against Baltimore, was still saying it (that game was not as impressive as the stat sheet shows).  It's not even about salary; this defense will never be anything special if he's a part of it.  Yes, 2010 worked out, but things were clicking in that playoff run in a way that we haven't approached since.  I don't care if he makes the vet minimum; he has to go.  I actually like the trio of Jones, Lattimore and Barrington here but would not be against drafting one high either.  The best defenses have great ILB play.  This defense lacks that.  

 

Raji: If I'm TT, I want to give this guy $10m a year.  I've wanted it since 2010.  But nothing in Raji's game says $10m a year.  How valuable can he be when this defense has been as bad as it is at times?  I mean, 237 yards for Peterson and Gerhart....again?  He's flashed the talent, but you don't pay a 5 year vet for talent flashes.  It's risky, but I suggest TT role the dice with Daniels, Jones, Worthy, Jolly, Boyd and Pickett.  

 

Shields: Pay the man.  Not sure what he's worth, but he's been a bright spot this year. Seems like the secondary issues haven't been on him; the breakdowns have come from Williams, Burnett, Jennings and House.  

 

Tight End: I think TT drafts one in the third or fourth round.  Round 1 TE's haven't turned out to be worth it recently; you can find talent here later.  But he needs one b/c Quarless, Taylor and Bostick aren't the answer.  

 

Safety: This is the biggest need on the team.  I just know don't know how to fix it.  Saying you need a player the caliber of Nick Collins is easier said than done, and teams seem to get along with way less at safety.  They need a smart/athletic player here and i don't know that you get that in year 1 from the draft (unless it's Haha Clinton-Dix?).  

 

OL: When you step back for a second, things actually look ok on the OL.  At OT, you have Bulaga, Sherrod, Bakhtiari, Barclay and Newhouse.  At the interior OL, they have Sitton, Lang, EDS, Tretter, and Taylor.  Yes, a lot of this depends on how Bulaga, Sherrod and Tretter come back from injuries.  The young guys also need to improve.  But on paper?  It doesn't seem that bleak.