Before anyone says it, no I have no given up on the season to look ahead to the offseason. I start a thread like this about this time every year.
This is going to be the toughest offseason I think we have seen since '05 when Thompson rebuilt the roster. I think we're going to see a lot of new faces in 2014 and a lot of big names go elsewhere. Here is my breakdown of the salary cap situation heading into March 2014:
NFLCap = $122 million
Packers Cap Hits = $103 million $105.9 million
2013 Cap Rollover (as of 11/25/2013) = $9.746 million
Gross Available 2014 Cap Space = ~$19 million $25.85 million
Projected 2014 Rookie Cap Hits = ~$6million (based on projected contract figures and 2013 rookie cap hits)
Net Available 2014 Cap Space = ~$13 million ~$19.85
Top 5 Cap Hits for 2014:
Aaron Rodgers = $17.9 million (no savings)
Clay Matthews = $11.15 million (no savings)
Tramon Williams = $9.5 million (7.5 million savings)
Josh Sitton = $6.4 million (4 million savings)
AJ Hawk = $ 6.15 million (2.95 million savings)
The number in parentheses is the amount of money that would be saved by cutting that player. The next highest number is TJ Lang at $5.1 million ($1.8 million savings) and everyone else is below 5 million with minimal savings.
2014 Unrestricted Free Agents:
Jermichael Finley
Ryan Pickett
B.J. Raji
James Jones
John Kuhn
Sam Shields
Andrew Quarless
Marshall Newhouse
Evan Dietrich-Smith
Michael Neal
Rob Francois
Johnny Jolly
C.J. Wilson
Seneca Wallace
Matt Flynn
The regular starters are in bold.
2014 Restricted Free Agents:
James Starks (Round 6)
Jamari Lattimore (UDFA)
M.D. Jennings (UDFA)
Scott Tolzien (UDFA)
The RFA Tender amounts are: 1st round = $2.879 million, 2nd round = $2.023 million, Low Tender = $1.323 million.
Prediction Time:
$13 million $19.85 million is not a lot to work with when you have 7 starters and a lot of role players to re-sign. First and foremost I think Thompson will try to give himself some cushion, namely by letting go of Tramon Williams. We save 7.5 million by cutting him so unless he's willing to reduce his cap number from 9.5 million to 2 million, I don't see him being on the team next year. Right off the bat Thompson increases his cap space from $13 million $19.85 million to $20.5 million $27.35 million. There's no real savings in cutting anyone else. Sure people want to see Hawk cut, but we would only gain 2.95 million by cutting him which really isn't worth it IMO.
Next comes the RFA's. I doubt they tender Tolzien at all. The rest of that group will get the Low Tender, costing the team $3.969 million between the 3 of them. No we're down to $16.531 million $23.381 million.
Now for the tough stuff, the UFA's.
Here is who I think they let walk outright:
- Jermichael Finley...They seem to not want to mess around with spinal issues (who would?), but beyond that he's just not irreplaceable.
- B.J. Raji...He hasn't proven himself to be irreplaceable. We have Daniels playing strong football and young talent like Datone and Worthy to develop. I doubt he will accept a modest contract either. He's just not worth it and I think he walks.
- Marshall Newhouse...He just can't play and the team finally seems to have some depth at OT. Bulaga will return, Barclay will get healthy, and hopefully Sherrod brings something to the table. They don't need his lack of skill.
- Robert Francois...Has shown flashes of talent, but he has had so many injuries and now they have Lattimore with some talent and Barrington waiting for a turn.
- John Kuhn...Even if he is willing to take Vet Minimum I can't imagine he will be back. He's slowed down and isn't as useful as he used to be. They can find a younger cheaper option.
- Senneca Wallace...why would they possibly want him back?
- CJ Wilson...Can be replaced by a developing player like Boyd or a rookie. Not worth the money.
Here is who I think re-sign:
- Ryan Picket - Veterans Minimum ($955,000)...Veteran presence for little money. Need a short term NT.
- Johnny Jolly - Veterans Minimum ($730,000)...Same as Pickett.
- Matt Flynn - Veterans Minimum ($730,000)...Great value as a back-up.
- Evan Dietrich-Smith - 2 years/$5 million/$2 million SB/$7 million guaranteed ($3.5 million cap hit in 2014)...He's a good Center, the top pass blocking C in the NFL according to PFF (pretty bad run blocker though). He has very little resume, 2 years is a "Prove It" deal. They're not going to pay him like a top Center, but they don't want to lose him. Revisit his contract in 2 years to see how he has performed and what we have in his potential replacement in Tretter.
So after re-signing these guys we are left with $10.616 million $17.466 million.
Tough Decisions:
- Sam Shields...Good cover corner with a lot of experience and only 25! The closest comparable player is Chiefs CB Sean Smith who just got a deal this offseason for 3 years/$16.5 million/$6.75 million SB/$7.465 million guaranteed. Shields has more INTs, but fewer tackles and hasn't actually played a full 16 games in his career. Shields and Rosenhaus will push hard, but ultimately I think he signs for 3 years/~$15 million/~$5 million SB/~$6 million guaranteed. Ultimately his cap number ends up being ~$6 million in 2014.
- Mike Neal...He's been pretty rough this season at OLB. He's getting some heat on the QB with 4 sacks, but ultimately he hasn't done enough to justify any significant amount of money. OLB was his last chance IMO and it just hasn't worked. There are younger, cheaper, and arguably better options available behind him.
- Andrew Quarless...It's hard to gauge where he's at. He's had a rough year really, but he has some intriguing tools that are worth waiting to see what happens. Bostick is still a better option right now, but I think Quarless's best football is in front of him. I would re-sign him to veteran minimum, which for him is $730,000.
- James Jones...It's very tough because he looked sharp in 2012 and has had his moments this season. He's been reliable and has shown leadership. He's 29 and will still be the #3 receiver when Cobb returns. It doesn't help him that Boykin has been having a strong season thus far. I don't know what Jones' demands will be. My guess is that they give him a short deal, similar in value to his previous one. My guess is 2 years/$6 million/$500,000 SB/$4 million guaranteed. Ultimately his cap number in 2014 is ~$3.5 million.
So after re-signing Sam Shields, Andrew Quarless, and James Jones the cap dollars dwindle to ~$380,000 $7.236 million. Not very much. Again though I originally guesstimated we would spend roughly $6 million on our rookies so in reality that figure is more like $6.38 million $13.616 million in cap space.
It's going to be a tight fit if we want to return some players. We will definitely be saying goodbye to some very familiar faces and probably the only new faces will be rookies. If anyone had any grand visions of signing free agents or filling holes with veterans, think again. We can do that, but we will sacrifice re-signing talented young players like Sam Shields.
EDIT: Thanks to Rockin Robin noticing my glaring omission (the rollover cap dollars), I have adjusted the numbers accordingly. We do get some solid extra cushion, about 7 million to be exact. That could definitely be used on a veteran FA or re-signing some of the guys who will get caught in a numbers game, like Mike Neal. Thompson also likes to keep a little cushion with the cap so I still can't see them re-signing Raji. The numbers just aren't there to keep him AND Shields, and if you're dumping Tramon (you almost have to), then you can't let Shields walk.
As for the draft, I don't have specific players, but here would be my targets:
Round 1: Safety, ILB, or TE
Round 2: TE, Safety, or NT
Round 3: TE, Safety, or NT
Round 4: ILB, NT, or CB
Round 5: CB, OG/C, or NT
Round 6: ILB, NT or TE
Round 7: ILB, NT or C
UDFA: CB, TE, or QB