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Assessing the best free agents left, after the franchise deadline
Posted by Evan Silva on March 5, 2012, 5:43 PM EST

A league-record 21 players were given franchise tags by the time Monday’s franchise period expired. The 2012 free agency class remains strong, though.

Here’s look at what’s left:

1. Defensive end Mario Williams — Has 53 career sacks and is only 27 years old. Williams will be the most aggressively pursued free agent once the signing period opens on March 13.

2. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson — Big-play receiver with rare size and vertical skills. Jackson averages 17.5 yards per reception for his career and is a legit No. 1 wideout. The Chicago Bears are expected to show interest.

3. Guard Carl Nicks — A mauler at 6-foot-5 and 343 pounds, Nicks is deceptively athletic for his size. He wants to be the NFL’s highest paid interior offensive lineman, which is reasonable because he’s only 27 years old and one of the top three guards in football.

4. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan — Finnegan is one of the top slot corners in the game, a playmaker (15 career interceptions), and an aggressive, efficient tackler. Versatile enough to hold his own outside against top NFL receivers, Finnegan is the premier cornerback on the market.

5. Tackle Jared Gaither — Gaither has a checkered history in terms of health and mental reliability, but he’s built like Jonathan Ogden with All-Pro caliber talent. The Chargers want him back, and their sense of urgency will increase if they’re forced to release longtime left tackle Marcus McNeill.

6. Guard Ben Grubbs — Grubbs is only a one-time Pro Bowler (2012), but he’s consistently played at a Pro Bowl-caliber level as a 70-game starter in Baltimore. Grubbs is fundamentally sound and athletic enough to appeal to both power- and zone-blocking teams.

7. Wide receiver Brandon Lloyd — Lloyd has been an NFL late bloomer and turns 31 before the season, but he’s amassed 2,414 receiving yards and scored 16 touchdowns over the past two seasons amid turbulent quarterback play.

8. Cornerback Brandon Carr — Carr is Finnegan’s primary competition to be the top-rated cornerback on the market. Though not a big playmaker in coverage (eight career picks), Carr has plus size (6-foot, 207) and experience as both a press-man and zone corner.

9. Wide receiver Marques Colston — Colston has been incredibly productive in New Orleans, but there are buyer-beware warnings. He turns 29 before the season, has undergone five career knee surgeries, and racked up stats as a single-covered slot receiver in the Saints’ spread offense. Colston is not a vertical threat.

10. Quarterback Matt Flynn — Flynn has started only two career games, but he engineered a Week Seventeen shootout win over the playoff-bound Lions and narrowly lost to the Patriots in 2010. He’s thrown nine career touchdown passes compared to five interceptions while averaging a robust 7.69 yards per attempt


I see a whole lot of overpaying in this group. I mean seeing how well it worked for the Eagles.
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quote:
Originally posted by Johnny Boy:
I'd love to get a corner and a guard. Two fewer spots to fill.


Those listed at both positions would come a high cost and agree with Heyward, I don't see why GB needs a starting G. They have 2 good ones now.
I've heard bits of rumors ATL will deal hard for Mario.

Because you know, that will make their offense really REALLY unstoppable whereas getting Julio Jones only made them really unstoppable.
Just something’s I remember about the year Mario was drafted. Up to just before the draft Mario thought he was going to be drafted by the Packers. As I recall he was happy about the possibility he would be a Packer.
Signing free Agents will be a little interesting this year. The 2013 cap will be pretty flat, but after that it is expect to rise rapidly. What may seem to be an outrageously high contract this year, may look like a bargain in a few years.
I'm thinking you never have enough good o-linemen. Also, I worry our tackle Sherrod will not be ready this year from broken leg. Wells is free, we will need some help on the o-line. Also wouldn't mind trading back in first to get a second and third. Use one 2nd round choice on D and both thirds. Hopefully get James from Oregon in the draft for more explosion. Does anyone like Peat (running back from Cincinati)?
quote:
Originally posted by heyward:
Why a guard? Sitton and Lang are solid.
quote:
tackle Sherrod will not be ready this year from broken leg


From what TT said in his PC and Sherrod is also on Twitter seems his recovery is going fine and he should be good to go but don't remember if TT or anyone else has given a timeframe. His break was clean and unlike a blown ACL this should be an easier injury to heal from. Hopefully that's the case as he could really benefit from an off season program. Just don't know what his participation will be.

I don't disagree you can ever have enough good OL. It's just these 2 IMO will command big time cash, especially Nicks. It wouldn't shock me if a team like Dallas or Redskins gave him a mega deal and we all know TT will not be getting into bidding wars.
quote:
Originally posted by packerboi:


2. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson — Big-play receiver with rare size and vertical skills. Jackson averages 17.5 yards per reception for his career and is a legit No. 1 wideout. The Chicago Bears are expected to show interest jizz their pants .



FTFY
quote:
Originally posted by packerboi:
Head case/prima-donna action Jackson to the Bears...

Should fit in beautifully with...





As far as Super Mario goes, the Bills will sign him, according to my one buddy. He also predicted that Cam Newton would fall to the Bills in the draft and that Von Miller would be a bust like the overrated DeMarcus Ware, so I'm betting this is a sure thing.
quote:
Originally posted by Rusty: As far as Super Mario goes, the Bills will sign him, according to my one buddy. He also predicted that Cam Newton would fall to the Bills in the draft and that Von Miller would be a bust like the overrated DeMarcus Ware, so I'm betting this is a sure thing.


Is this your buddy who is the PED expert? Or am I confusing posters...
quote:
Originally posted by Pakrz:
Mario Williams is a pipe dream for GB and none of the other FA's on that list interest me.

I don't disagree, but Prince Fielder was a pipe dream for my Tigers. Just sayin'.
quote:
I'm pretty sure Sherrod broke the bone above the knee

quote:
Pretty sure DS broke 2 bones in the leg


we can't have it both ways Smiler

from rotoworld:
The Packers' 2011 first-round pick underwent emergency surgery after breaking his right tibia and fibula in Week 15.

so that would be below the knee.
quote:
Originally posted by FinnLander:
quote:
Originally posted by Pakrz:
Mario Williams is a pipe dream for GB and none of the other FA's on that list interest me.

I don't disagree, but Prince Fielder was a pipe dream for my Tigers. Just sayin'.


Mario Williams is going to be a prize free agent with plenty of interested teams willing to throw stupid money at him. I can't see TT being one of them.

To be honest, I'm not even sure where Williams would play in the defense. I would guess he'd be a 34 DE??

I was hoping like hell the Lions would let Avril hit the market and TT would take a look at that guy. I think he'd be a pretty good OLB in GB's defense.

The FA that appeals to me most is Jarrett Johnson, OLB from the Ravens. He could step right in and do a pretty good job there.

Others I like are:

Jeremy Mincey - DE
Mark Anderson - DE
Matt Roth - DE
Red Bryant - DE/DT
Kendall Langford - DE/DT
quote:
Originally posted by FinnLander:
quote:
Originally posted by Pakrz:
Mario Williams is a pipe dream for GB and none of the other FA's on that list interest me.

I don't disagree, but Prince Fielder was a pipe dream for my Tigers. Just sayin'.
And I do believe Reggie White was also just a pipe dream at the time to become a Packer,but it happened and things were never the same in Green Bay,why wouldnt the Packers try for Mario,they need good defensive help desperately and he would be a start to shore up the sieve,they have the cash after all.
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Pakrz:
To be honest, I'm not even sure where Williams would play in the defense. I would guess he'd be a 34 DE??

I was hoping like hell the Lions would let Avril hit the market and TT would take a look at that guy. I think he'd be a pretty good OLB in GB's defense.
/QUOTE]

Confused

Williams looked pretty darned good at OLB for the Texans last year. Like Julius Peppers (and unlike Cliff Avril) he's a freakish athlete for a guy his size. He can drop well enough (better than any of Green Bay's current ILBs, but that's not saying much). Avril's a guy I don't see being able to drop very well as he's not as fluid as Mario.

I still think the guy TT will go after, if he goes after anyone, is Wimbley. He would still reap the maximum compensatory pick for Flynn then and get a mid-tier guy that wouldn't break the bank. I don't think there would be a huge price difference between he and Johnson, for example.
Williams would be an OLB for GB and the Texans IIRC play in a 3-4. He is a freakishly good athlete but I doubt he's going last past day 2 in FA and you will have some team throwing a lot of money at him.

Here is a list from PFT on the top 10 cap casuality cuts. Aside from Wimbley, don't see a lot on here either:

quote:


Due to large forthcoming bonus payments and/or base salaries, the following ten players could be joining them in free agency soon.:

1. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning — You already know. Manning is owed a $28 million roster bonus on Thursday, March 8, and the Colts would shock the world if they paid it.

2. Raiders linebacker Kamerion Wimbley — As Mike Florio has explained, the Raiders must decide Wimbley’s fate prior to March 17. If released, Wimbley can expect hot pursuit from teams in need of a versatile, productive pass rusher.

3. Cardinals tackle Levi Brown — Arizona wants to re-sign Brown to a long-term extension, but he’s fully expected to be released before his $6 million roster bonus comes due on March 12. The sides can resume talks after that.

4. Chargers tackle Marcus McNeill — San Diego is actively working to re-sign free agent Jared Gaither because it knows McNeill will be released in short order. The move will clear $10 million in salary cap space.

5. Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma — Likely to be a primary target as the NFL doles out bounty-scandal discipline, Vilma’s on-field performance has declined sharply and he’s no longer worth his $5.4 million base salary.

6. Jaguars defensive end Aaron Kampman — Owed $5 million in salary and bonuses, the 32-year-old still hasn’t passed his exit physical after three separate knee surgeries since December of 2009.

7. Packers tackle Chad Clifton — Clifton is scheduled to receive a $5.25 million base salary and $203,125 in per-game roster bonuses. He turns 36 before the season and recently underwent surgery on his lower back and hip. Clifton was benched in Green Bay’s playoff loss for ineffectiveness.

8. Rams cornerback Ronald Bartell — St. Louis is expected to be active on the free agent cornerback market, and also has confirmed interest in LSU’s Morris Claiborne. Due a $6.2 million salary and coming off a fractured neck, Bartell could easily be brushed aside in favor of a younger player.

9. Vikings guard Steve Hutchinson — Hutchinson is owed $6.95 million in base pay and a $500,000 offseason workout bonus. After concussions ended his last two seasons, it’s no secret that Hutchinson is in danger of being released.

10. Cardinals linebacker Joey Porter — Porter is due a $5.75 million salary and $250,000 workout bonus in the final season of his contract. $6 million is much too large a figure for a 35-year-old pass rusher who can no longer rush the passer.

quote:

Freeney could be out in Indy, too
Posted by Mike Florio on March 6, 2012, 1:31 PM EST

On Monday, Silva pointed out that, with the Colts giving defensive end Robert Mathis a new four-year, $36 million contract that kicks out $17 million in 2012 alone, the team now has more than $30 million tied up this year in a pair of defensive ends who are on the wrong side of 30.

But they may not have that problem for long. Dwight Freeney is entering the final season of a six-year, $72 million contract. He has a base salary of $14.035 million, and (per a league sourcce) a cap number of $19.035 million.

Freeney, as a result, may be out.

Of course, he could agree to take less money. But the problem is that he currently has no agent. Gary Wichard died on March 11, 2011, the same day the lockout started. He has not, we’re told, hired a new agent.

So, unless they intend to pay Freeney $14.035 million this season, the Colts will either have to negotiate a reduced contract directly with Freeney, or they’ll have to hope he finds a new agent. If Freeney were inclined to take a pay cut, he presumably would have hired a new agent by now.


If Freeney is cut, I'd imagine there will be clammering for his arrival in GB.
I asked this in an earlier but I don't think I ever got an answer. With all the talk of Williams or another pass rushing OLB, I am trying to picture the defense. Mathews already is the pass rushing OLB. To have 2 pass rushing OLBs would not seem to be nearly as effective as a good pass rushing DE. The problem last year seemed to be the absence of any pressure whatsoever from the front 3. No defense can afford to rush 5 or more players all the time, nor allow a team all day to sit in the pocket with no pressure from the front 4 (or front 3 plus one OLB rushing). IMO, the Packers need an OLB who can hold the point of attack against the run, which Walden and Zombo didn't seem to be able to do and to play good cover against the pass. More importantly, they need a DL who can cause problems for the OL. Two years ago, Woodson was all over the backfield because Jenkins, Raji and Matthews were causing havoc.
Am I missing something?
In theory, you are missing the way the 3-4 defense is typically set up

the 3 DL keep the 5 OL busy while the OLBs make the plays

The beauty of having (2) pass rushing OLBs is that the offense doesn't know for sure who is coming and who isn't

If all GB has is Matthews, they slide protection his way and double team him- but they can't do that if there is another threat on the other side. They need to create uncertainty on the OL and QB- that leads to mistakes, sacks and mayhem
quote:
Originally posted by Satori:
no need to quote this.


I understand that aspect of it, but then you are only rushing 1 of your 2 best pass rushers on most plays. Your quote about the 3DLS keeping the 5 OL busy is how the 3-4 works against the run, but if your 3 DLs can't occupy the 5 OLs against the pass, then you need to bring 2 more rushers which puts you a man down in coverage.
Last edited by packerboi
If you bring five rushers, you still have six guys in coverage. Your OLBs are the guys best able to beat the OTs with quickness and moves. The D-Linemen tend to be mor of thumpers. They help collapse the pocket but the OLBs come off the edge to hem the QB in an create sacks.

And that's only on a "standard" five-man rush.

With a four-man rush, only one is coming, but they don't know which one. Right now they can move/slide protection to Matthews' side and call it a play. With two outside threats they can't or the other guy comes in and drills the QB.

It also adds another true pass rusher to account for regardless, especially on blitzes. If you have three linemen pushing upfield and two OLBs crashing teh edges it makes a much better openning for an inside linebacker or defensive back to shoot a gap and make a play. That blitz-back RB can't flar for a dump off and may miss your non-standard blitzer.

Obviously having an end who can rush well is a nice thing too. The thing about Williams is he's stout enough to hold teh p[oint againt the run. Guy's a beats.
I'm no expert on the topic, but every down and distance is going to be attacked differently and that's why the players all commented on the Capers' playbook being so fat. Lots of options to cause confusion and delay

The idea is that the DL may rush, the DL may drop.( See Raji's pick six vs Chicago) The defense may bring both OLBs, they may bring 1, they may bring zero. Uncertainty hurts the offense who need to be in complete synchronization to be successful either run blocking or pass blocking. The offense has to commit 5 or 6 guys to protection no matter what and if you only bring 3, you have a numbers advantage on the back-side in coverage

MM talked about how hard it was to prepare for a 3-4 D from the offensive side and that's part of why he uses so many formations. Flexibility is the beauty of the 3-4 D along with the idea that there are more people on the planet who are of OLB size than DL size. So you are choosing an "easier" and "cheaper" way to go than trying to find the next Reggie White

As far as having your best pass rusher in coverage - that's exactly how Eli got beat, leading to the pick six by Clay Matthews. Manning and his OL "assumed" Clay was rushing, but he dropped right into the throwing lane and made them pay. That's uncertainty in action. Uncertainty kills in a league where they study tape religiously so they think they know what's coming.

You can either overpower them physically, or more likely you can fool them by attacking their cerebrum. That's the theory of the 3-4 as I understand it
quote:
Originally posted by Satori:

The beauty of having (2) pass rushing OLBs is that the offense doesn't know for sure who is coming and who isn't



Sounds like cheating to me, or does that only apply if there is a bounty?

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