Rick Gosselin was the gold medal benchmark of the mock draft. He only published one just before the draft and it was almost always one of the most accurate. He stopped doing them a few years ago. McGinn is pretty respectable as well at mocking the the first round.
That can't be true, McGinn is just a hack. Or so I read.
He's good at breaking down film and reporting what he sees. His game grade column is a good read. He gets sideways when he goes emotional and starts pooping opinions.
Originally Posted by Satori:
Originally Posted by Henry:
But the nature of this defense, particularly one gap 3-4 isn't meant for guys to try and absorb blockers all the time.
Agreed.
But it does happen and offenses work very hard to get the match-ups they want too
When Datone is lined up at 3-tech, he's a beast. But opponents then put the TE in motion and switch strong side to weak side - this forces the DL to shift too. Datone or Guion goes from playing their preferred 3-tech to sliding over and playing 1-tech. Daniels/Raji are fireplugs and they can handle the 1-tech double teams, but Guion and Jones can't.
Look at where a 3-tech lines up - on the outside shoulder of the guard
That makes it really hard for the Center to get over there to double team him and it leaves Guion/Jones alone on a guard - they'll win that match-up way more often than not.
But the offenses knows this so they use some cat & mouse to try and beat it
The diagram below is a 4-3 OVER defense and it closely resembles how GB lines up in their 2-4-5 nickel
In this picture, Datone/Guion is the T and Daniels/Raji is the N. The N guys can handle the double teams. So what offenses do to beat this alignment is they move their TE which switches strong/weak side of the offensive formation. (The Y = TE for the offense)
When they make that switch, the DL adjusts by sliding over. You'll see this on game day when the DL quickly shifts left or right or the LB taps them on the ass and they slide over just before the snap. There isn't enough time for the N and the T to stand up, trade spots and get back down into their stance before the ball is snapped. So they just slide over and trade roles. The 1-tech becomes the 3-tech and the 3 becomes the 1
Now, the offense has the advantage again and Datone/Guion is sitting in the 1-gap between the guard and center and easily gets double -teamed.
IF the Packers have talented ILBs they will flow and make the play. But we had slow guys with crappy instincts and they'd get blown out by the double-teamed DL.
Fix the ILBs and then teams are reluctant to invest 2 blockers on one DL.
We saw this when Matthews played ILB - if they double Datone/Guion, it leaves Clay free and he'll eff you up 9 different ways. Fix the ILB issues and we'll see a difference in the run defense
I'll also say this: In the Capers 3-4, the playmakers are supposed to be the LBs, not the DL
So if you're expecting these 3-4 DL guys to look like Reggie White and be game- changers, you'll be disappointed. That's not their job, as noted by GraveDigger.
The Packers used to have Jolly/Raji/Pickett and those beasts could absorb the double-teams - but they offered zero pass rush. So teams just passed vs the base defense knowing those guys couldn't touch them.
Now the Packers went with more athletic penetrating DL, but some of them get beat on double teams in the run game. Finding DL who can do it all is the holy grail, but in a pass-happy world, the Packers are willing to sacrifice some run stuffing skills for pass rush.
And if they had decent ILBs, it wouldn't be such an issue
Finally, I don't know any of this stuff, I picked it up cruising around the internet and much of this specific info comes via a guy named AlexGreen20. I've learned a bunch from his tutorials over the years. Happy to share what I've learned , but I deserve zero credit for the insight in this post.
I'm just another dork unleashed on a message board ( jadumb) 
Go Packers
Nerd.
My man in the clouds.
Daniels training like a beast.
Hopefully, he inspires his fellow DL to let the dogs out too
Just so long as he doesn't come back "bigger and faster" like Charles Johnson or whoever that WR was.
I think a lot of Daniels as a player. Wish he wouldn't talk so much to the media, though.
Why does it bother you when players talk to the media? Daniels is a damn good player and works his ass off. He's earned the right to be one of the voices of this defense. Yeah he's vocal but has he said anything that might be construed as negative?
More football nerd stuff on the Packers defense
This article shows the Cover 3 Buzz and the nickel bear front among others
from Cheesehead TV
nice! thanks man.
You had my attention at 'nickel beer'.
I got distracted after the buzz.
readers digest version:
it looks like one defense, but its actually another
can swap between looks and fronts without subbing
Fooled Sanchez? BFD. Got Romo and Brady too ? OK
The end.
Article on BJ Raji and what he's done since last year
http://www.packersnews.com/sto...back-track/28179287/
"One of things I noticed when I did my self-scout was my range of motion and my flexion," Raji said after Thursday's organized team activities. "I don't know if you remember but back in 2010, 2011 I was 1,000-snap guy, I was an 80-percent (playing time) guy.
"I guess all that wear and tear kind of stiffened my muscles. So I noticed that my range of motion and my flexion weren't as good as when I first got here in '09.
He's gonna be a beast more yoga PLEASE
The one constant about pass defense is if you can get a pass rush, things get easier for the defensive backs. That means knowing when to ignore play action.
Not having AJ Hawk or Brad Jones will help on not biting on fakes.
Originally Posted by Satori:
Currently, the Packers have 9 DL players under contract and would typically keep 6-7 guys
Will they draft more Big Guys ? Thompson subscribes to the Planet Theory, so maybe...
Raji is only on a 1 year deal, so maybe they look at an NT late in the draft - but given how little base defense GB plays it wouldn't seem like a good use of an early pick.
At DE/DT we have lots of bodies, but they each have some limitations as is often the case with immense humans.
What I've read :
Mike Pennel has all the physical tools, but hasn't been able to put it all together... yet.
With Luther Robinson, I've read he has less overall skills/talent, but wants it bad enough to put in the work to get better.
Datone Jones is a very talented pass rusher, but isn't yet big enough/strong enough to take on double teams - that limits his playing time
Thornton had issues in learning how to be a professional, but MM put his boot up that ass and commented that Khyri turned the corner this offseason. We'll see, but he was a 3rd rounder so its likely he sticks around
Josh Boyd is solid at 5- tech on early downs, but not much in the pass rush department and not really an NT candidate
Bruce Gaston has shown flashes of being a good DL player; his forte is stuffing the run and he's had a year in the system
Daniels is a stud and up for a new deal soon
Raji is motivated and back at NT, his natural position
Guion has a year in the system and won't be asked to play NT again
Packers played nickel 75% of the time and that means only 2 DL on the field:
Jones/Raji/Daniels/Guion/Thornton?
In base 3-4, GB would use 3 DL with Boyd/Daniels/Thornton/Guion/Gaston/Robinson at DE
and Raji/Pennel at NT
That covers most of the DL snaps, with Big Okie and Pressure being some of the other packages
In the NASCAR Pressure package, Datone Jones is the only DL on the line, I can't remember who they used in the 1-4-6 Big Okie
Trgovac got some young help on the DL coaching side as GB brought in Jerry Montgomery from OU
http://www.packers.com/team/co...f6-b384-981bd8c76974
Do the Packers need more DL or... just more from their DL ?
Where does the DL reside on your draft totem pole for 2015 and beyond?
I believe the answer to both (more DL v. more from DL) questions is YES!
Some sobering statistics at Defensive Line from Football Outsiders shows we ranked #28 and #30 in runs off LE and LT, which correlates to the right side of our D, Matthews/Mulumba/Daniels.
We ranked #18 in the middle, #19 RE and #16 RE, which correlates to the Left Datone/Boyd/Peppers side and whoever was over there.
That #18 in the middle is pretty impressive, as that is where 51% of the runs went, a nice indicator of how well Guion played the NT. The rest evenly split right and left side around 25% each.
It is going to be really interesting to see how it all shakes out this season, but I am hopeful we will be improved. I don't have a lot of hope that we added players that will definitely be an improvement, but having Raji back, and others a year further along in their development should help.
If Thornton, Ringo and Hooks show well, that would be a big plus. BTW, I really wanted a good NT in this draft.
Originally Posted by Boris:
He's gonna be a beast more yoga PLEASE
Vjay was absolutely enamored with BJay's past flexion abilities. He followed him everywhere he went.
Why didn't we think off this before? As a way of keeping more DL, Raji could play CB. With that problem solved, we would have been free to take a top level ILB in round 1. Good thinking oldschool.
Originally Posted by Trophies:
Some sobering statistics at Defensive Line from Football Outsiders shows we ranked #28 and #30 in runs off LE and LT, which correlates to the right side of our D, Matthews/Mulumba/Daniels.
We ranked #18 in the middle, #19 RE and #16 RE, which correlates to the Left Datone/Boyd/Peppers side and whoever was over there.
That #18 in the middle is pretty impressive, as that is where 51% of the runs went, a nice indicator of how well Guion played the NT. The rest evenly split right and left side around 25% each.
Guion didn't play the middle by himself. If you are going to mention the LBs for the L and R side run D, then shouldn't you mention the LBs for the middle run D too?
Originally Posted by BrainDed:
Holy Crap!
Well, thankfully, he was removed and Clay Matthews inserted at ILB week 10 against CHI. I believe he, indeed, helped the numbers in the middle.
Usually TT gets rid of a player a year too early instead of two years too late.
Hawk was the exception.
TT is loyal to his guys....to a fault in some cases.
Here is a super interesting article on our DL:
http://allgbp.com/2015/06/05/p...hoice-vs-free-agent/
I couldn't agree more with him on how tight these jobs are. Might see some surprises.
.
Over time, I've become less enamored with PFF for big picture discussions ( Thx H5)
Without context its just too difficult to draw any useful conclusions imo. PFF has absolutely no idea what each players responsibility was on each play
The Green Bay Packers defense (which includes the defensive line) were able to hold these 4 teams below their scoring average.
* Philly was a top offense, scoring 29/game, but the Packers held them 20
* The NE Cheaters averaged 29 points/game- the Packers held them to 21
* Cowboys averages 29 pts a game, Packers held them to 21 in the playoffs
* Seahawks averaged 24.6 pts a game, Packers defense held them to 19 in their home
4 top offenses (including crunch time of the playoffs) and the much-maligned Packers defense held every single one of them to 21 pts or less per game.
That's plenty good enough to win another Title.
Going only on pts allowed; giving up 21/game puts GB as a top 10 defense
https://www.teamrankings.com/n...nent-points-per-game
Go Packers
Good point Satori. Our D somehow fared quite well against those top teams.
Now, I look at the changes we are seeing all over on D and I do think we will be greatly improved. A lot depends on a young group of CBs coming in and performing well without giving up to many explosive plays, and our LBs, both outside and inside, reclaiming the middle of the field, with good help from our Safeties. My guess is they will shut the run down and will be tough to pass on.
The line play will be important here. My confidence is bolstered with Raji's return. That alone will be a plus. Most of that has to do with the guy's desire to play on the same line with Peppers on the outside. I bet it killed Raji to not be able to suit up last season. The other players we have ought to make our DL a better group, since all of them seem improved.
Is it the best line? No. But, I think they will do well enough within the scheme to help the rest of this D become a force. Top 10 is doable, I think. Our team speed has increased significantly with all the younger guys, the playmaker positions on Dom's D. I would LOVe to see our guys top the INT listings! I bet we do this year. Good pressure from our DL and our LBs will help that.
Eventually, everyone sees the error of their ways. 
For context, Green Bay held 100% of the teams that scored less than 22 points to 21 points or less. Pretty impressive. Still allowed NO to score 44, ATL 37, and Miami 24.
Points per game doesn't always give the best picture though, considering a slow, grind it out offens will do favors for a defense by holding the ball. Green Bay, on the other hand, wants to outscore everyone, meaning teams have more opportunities (and need to catch up). Green Bay scored the most in the NFL in points per drive, but opponents also scored when given the chance, as the defense was 17th in stopping teams from scoring. Drive success rate for opposing teams was incredible, ranking Green Bay's defense at 27th.
I'd be curious to see first half of the season vs second half of the season, but I have other things to attend to at the moment.
It just emphasizes that the defense doesn't need to be 85 Bears, but just a little better for this team to take it all.
Originally Posted by Satori:
.
PFF has absolutely no idea what each players responsibility was on each play
Really, absolutely no idea?
Really. They're Irish. I'm guessing it's two guys just making ****e up as they get pissed at the pub. They are laughing at you all.
"Oh Seamus, let's rate AJ Hawk at +5 for this game! Watch their damned heads explode!" *Falls off stool*
Originally Posted by El-Ka-Bong:
For context, Green Bay held 100% of the teams that scored less than 22 points to 21 points or less.
You DICK !
18c3V - OK, they have some idea, but they don't know.....and they freely admit as much on their own website:
"There are certainly many instances during games that present a clouded view of a playerâs assignment, and in those instances, we err on the side of â0â grade as we try to avoid guessing as much as possible."
DCs spend an immense amount of time scheming and disguising what they are doing
They have an immense playbook with hundreds of variations x 32 different teams
Assessing how each of 11 moving parts did their job on a thousand plays per season is quite the task.
32 teams x 16 games x 11 players x 1000 plays each = a lot.
I loved the video somebody posted from John Madden talking about how Vince Lombardi spent 8 hours talking about the details of one play.
Yet these guys can run through 70 plays/game and grade all the players over-night ?
So, you do the math- I struggle with any numbers higher than 69; which is why I still throw down 3 hard- earned rupees on the lottery every Saturday night.
Which reminds me, I gotta run.
50 drunks in a bar...
This one if from earlier in the offseason, but it sure sounds like Raji is putting in the work both mentally and physically. And using that Big Butt to kick some ass
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/296020101.html
On Tuesday, Raji shoulder-pressed 335 pounds for five sets of five while sitting down, he said. On Wednesday, Carini had Raji working the bench press at 450 pounds.
"Heâs actually better now than heâs ever been," said Carini, a former New Jersey Strong Man-winner himself who has trained Raji since he came out of Boston College. "He has to have a monster year. He knows it. And heâs just looking forward to the opportunity.â
âThis will blow your mind, too," he said. "This week on my squat machine, he back-squatted 1,100 pounds for three sets.â
Come again?
âItâs so phenomenal," Carini said. "His hip strength â the size of his thighs â heâs taking these weights but heâs going way, way past parallel which means his hips are going way below his kneecap. And heâs just powering straight up. No hesitation. Itâs just phenomenal.â
"I know wherever he ends up â and Iâm hoping itâs Green Bay â heâs going to be better than heâs ever been," Carini said. "He knows it because heâs in that kind of condition. Heâs phenomenal. He comes in here every day."
Looking forward to a great BJ once training camp gets rolling
I can't wait until TC, plus I'll be out of town for a week starting Wed.
"God didn't make very many human beings like Raji." -TT
