Packing the Stats: Rushing to Conclusions (Chad Toporoski)

titmfatiedNo Code

quote:
Packing the Stats: Rushing to Conclusions
jerseyal.com
by Chad Toporski on Tuesday, October 23rd, 2012

So which matters more – yards per carry or total rushing attempts? This really piqued my interest from a statistical standpoint, and I decided to head over to Pro-Football-Reference.com to being my research. My sample data was all games (regular season and postseason) within the past ten years (2002-2011) that matched the rushing criteria below.

These results, I think, are extremely interesting... One of the most surprising things is how little of a correlation there is between yards per attempt and winning games. The data suggests that anything after 2.0 YPC is not much different than flipping a coin to see who wins. While correlation does not equal causation, the correlation is pretty low, so having a big YPC average doesn’t automatically mean a better chance of winning.

Now, contrast that with total attempts per game, and the difference is quite striking. The chance of winning a game increases significantly with every additional 5 attempts made per game. Even in total rushing yardage, the success rate goes up as the yardage goes up.continue

There's a lot more after the click. Well worth a look to see all the stats and a few more interesting points concerning other reasons why the low YPC might not be as impactful as one might think.

10/23/1210:14 PM

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michiganjoeMember

Wilde asked AR about this yesterday on his show and his response was that, while better productivity is desired, it's quantity that's more important in keeping the defense honest than quality.

10/24/1212:45 PM

Music CityMember

It certainly has a lot to do with the foundation of your attack, too. If you're trying to win while running the ball primarily, 2.0 ypc isn't going to cut it. Bu teams like the Packers and Patriots are putting the ball in the hands of their MVP QBs. You don't have to have the Txans' rushing attack to win.

We have talked about how things have evolved over the years- that now it is a passing league. To me it's more specific than that, and here's how I distinguish the 2- you cannot win unless your QB is elite at protecting the ball and playing well in the red zone. Just calling it a passing league indicates that if you put up #s it'll equate to wins and Championships. Matt Schaub put up sick #s a couple yars ago- 400 are games and so on. His nmbers this year don't stack up, but he's playing better, if you will.

10/24/121:16 PM

bubbleboy789Member

A high number of attempts alone makes the front seven of the defense respect you, and slows the pass rush.

A high number of attempts along with a high average yards per carry not only makes the front 7 respect you, it also makes the safeties respect you.

It'd be nice to see the Packers get a higher average yards per rush so they could bring the safeties up and get some deep balls in, but until that happens they'll need to rely on the number of rush attempts to keep the defense honest.

10/24/121:49 PM

"We"-Ka-BongYou ungrateful biscuit eating son of a bitch

I would guess if you looked at rush/pass ratio in the fourth quarter, teams who had a higher ratio of rushes to passes probably have a higher winning percentage.

Does that mean you need to rush more in the fourth quarter to win games, or does it mean that teams that are ahead in the fourth quarter rush more and teams behind in the fourth quarter pass more?

10/24/123:35 PM

Mcpacker64Member

ProFootballFocus OL rankings(for what its worth;
17. Green Bay Packers

PB = 7th, RB = 27th, PEN = 16th

A somewhat shaky start to the year for Green Bay who are definitely worse off for replacing Scott Wells with Jeff Saturday. On the plus side Marshall Newhouse has taken a step forward and Bryan Bulaga is looking like his 2011 self.
PB Pass Bolcking
RB Run Blocking
Pen Penalties

There are teams with better rankings but not playing that well imo.

10/24/123:47 PM

H5Keyboard Warrior, troll hunter

1st half rushing -vs- STL

Player  att's  yards  avg   lg  TD
R.Cobb    1     19    19.0  19  0
A.Green   7     12     1.7   5  0
ttl       8     31     3.9  19  0

Final rushing stats

Player  att's  yards  avg   lg  TD
A.Green  20     35     1.8  15  0
R.Cobb    1     19    19.0  19  0
J.Kuhn    3     16     5.3   9  0
A.Rodgers 2      0     0.0   1  0
ttl      26     70     2.7  19  0

10/24/123:51 PM

BrainDedMember

quote:
Now, contrast that with total attempts per game, and the difference is quite striking. The chance of winning a game increases significantly with every additional 5 attempts made per game.

This is kind of silly unless they can somehow take into account teams running the ball in the 4th quarter with no real intention to score, but just drain clock.

You can look at it the other way as well.. A team trailing by 2 scores in the 4th quarter is going to be passing at a higher rate, skewing the attempts number. Look at the Rams game.. They had no choice but to stop running, the attempts went down because they were LOSING but certainly not losing because of a lack of running attempts.

Maybe if you could just pull out the data for the first half? Even then, it wouldn't take into account the wear multiple attempts places on a defense an entire game.. Anyway, this isn't baseball, let's please not try to determine success by algebraic equations. Keep the geeks on the diamond with their scorebooks and calculators.

10/24/124:06 PM