Passer Rating Differential

I read about this stat earlier this year. It seems to be as reliable an indicator of who will win the SB as there is.

Wouldn't have guessed Dallas at 5.

Thanks for posting. Saw a story last night on the NFL Network that talked about this but couldn't find any 2011 stats.

The Packers defense's propensity for interceptions certainly help to lower an opponent's passer rating.

And Rodgers' intense focus on protecting the ball helps GB win the turnover battle too

http://www.coldhardfootballfac...tect_it_best%3F.html

Wow, and the Packers don't just lead by a little bit. Not only are they tops in the overall differential, the difference between the Packers and the next highest score (Houston) is nearly as big as the difference between number 2 (Houston) and number 10 (Jets).

Stuff like that makes you think they should have been 15-1.

That's a good graphic. Chunks of yards given up is a concern, but backing it up with Ints and 36 points a game offensively can win you a super bowl.

The league has changed. Bend but don't break opportunistic defenses and great QB play gets all the chicks!

And mobility, limiting passing, and a fervant following gets you Skip Bayless.

Looking at the opponent passer rating stats, Brees has had to cover for a worse pass defense compared to Rodgers and thus is the clear MVP.

quote:

Originally posted by MNPackman:
I read about this stat earlier this year. It seems to be as reliable an indicator of who will win the SB as there is.

wait...I thought Hank Stram was the most reliable Super Bowl picker?


He had this unique formula that was incredibly accurate on picking the Super Bowl winner! He never told the media his "system"; but maybe this was part of it?



I think it's too late to ask him, now, however.

I went back a couple more years to see how well this holds up. Year listed is year of super bowl, number in parentheses is where the team ranked in PRD.

2011 Packers (1) def Steelers (4)
2010 Saints (1) def Colts (5)
2009 Steelers (4) def Cardinals (17)
2008 Giants (24) def Patriots (1)
2007 Colts (4) def Bears (10)

Looks like a pretty strong stat other than the Giants' huge upset. The Packers were ranked 6th in this stat that year when the Giants beat them at Lambeau.

But but but we give up so many yards!

Where does the Packers red zone D stack up? They give up a chunk of yards but inside the 20 with the shorter field they seem to do much better(at least it appears that way).

I agree with CAPackFan. The redzone D is terrific. I rewatched the Saints game from week 1 last night and they got inside our 30 and 20 quite a bit but would rarely come away with much more than a field goal, if that.

I sincerely expect the D to tighten up in the playoffs. Just like last year.

This has them at 21. Not bad considering the yards they surrender.

Brian Billick had 10 statistics that showed him the Saints and the Ravens were going to the Super Bowl and I can't find them anywhere. Did anyone else see that segment on TV??? Not sure what channel it was on....ESPN or NFL network....very interesting. OMG: here it is....

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/...dule=HP11_hot_topics

Billick's stats are obviously wrong. Not because the Saints won't win the Super Bowl.... who knows. They have to play the games. But if Billick is using those stats to predict future success, they should predict the regular season results on which they are based with near complete accuracy. But of course, Green Bay ended up 15-1, better than any other team and much higher than his stats suggest. So if those regular season stats can't even predict the regular season results, it's absurd to suggest they can predict the outcome of the playoffs.

quote:

I rewatched the Saints game from week 1 last night and they got inside our 30 and 20 quite a bit but would rarely come away with much more than a field goal, if that.

So you're using the first game of the season and last year's playoffs as a barometer for how the D will play in two weeks?

DH13, not just those games, but points allowed all season. Packers allowed only 22.4 points per game, which puts them at 9th in the league.

So, what kind of passing defense gives up lots and lots of yardage, but is top 10 in points allowed, and is #1 in the league in interceptions (and not just #1, but first by a huge margin: 35 INTs to the next nearest team with 23)?

The question answers itself: they are hot dogs. They've been sitting on the INT all year, the BIG play, the one that draws headlines and stats. And in Woodson's case, everlasting fame (the pick 6 record he has admitted he's chasing). That's the leader of the passing defense, and the stats back up they're all doing it.

Truth: You don't get picks by playing shutdown defense. QB's don't throw it if the receiver is covered. You bait and switch. Which is risky.

And you can't really knock them for it, because it has worked all year long. We've always had the lead, and when they have to (the red zone) they can shut the opponent down. The stats aren't lying about that. When they have to be, they are a top 10 defense.

Rest of the time, they're hot dogs. From the top down. Goes with being Super Bowl champs, and goes with having Hollywood guys like Matthews and Heisman winners like Woodson leading them.

Didn't see the defense do much shutting down at the end of the Giant game.

quote:

DH13, not just those games, but points allowed all season.

Of course. You're making a different argument. The post I referred to pointed exclusively to WK1 and 2010 playoffs.

Good point michiganjoe,

What kind of top 10 defense allows a team down 7 late in the game to move down the field with ridiculous ease, thereby tying the game?

That looked like a Bottom 10 defense to me and did the Lion game suggest otherwise?

Woodie and Bloodline were not playing in the Lions' game.
Big Difference.

quote:

Originally posted by phaedrus:
Good point michiganjoe,

What kind of top 10 defense allows a team down 7 late in the game to move down the field with ridiculous ease, thereby tying the game?

That looked like a Bottom 10 defense to me and did the Lion game suggest otherwise?

Same kind of defense that allows the Packers to drive 70 yards in 50 seconds without using a time out to win the game.

Giants did the same thing to the Patriots to win a game a few weeks earlier.

There are no teams in 2011 that don't have some flaws.

Packers' flaw is, they've always kind of relied on Woodson to pull their fat out of the fire. Only he's 35 now.

And Matthews can't get to the QB by himself.

Give them a short field though and they can make a difference.