PFF Rates Quality of GB Starters

Six starters in orange, with Bahktiari and Jones expected to jump to Yellow. I expect them to make at least that big of a jump, and I don't believe House or Jennings are starters next year. 

 

Unfortunately, the ILBs are fairly graded and more than likely our duo for 2014.

 

They also had Boykin ranked as their 39th highest graded WR in the league last year, then slapped an "Adequate Starter/Role Player" label on him. I'd call that fair at this point in his career, but it definitely doesn't jibe with their own scoring system.

I don't disagree with their assessment, but it's completely useless to do this kind of thing at this point in the offseason. Yes as of right now Ryan Taylor and Brandon Bostick are the only TE's under contract and thus are the starters, but does anyone really believe that will be the case in 6 months or even just 1 month? Absolutely not. The same is true for the other 31 teams. This is an interesting thing to do, but lets do this the first week in September because that's when teams will have their actually 53 and their actually starting 24 in place.

If the Packers did nothing those would be the starters, so if you want (and you agree with their rankings) you can use this grading/graphic as a map for what GB should/could do over the next 3 months (FAs & Draft) to upgrade their roster.

 

 

 

The current starters are irrelevant for sure in February.  Unfortunately the starters up the middle of our defense are the starters still around and likely into TC. 

 

If you were an OC (many of you are smarter than most in the NFL) which I am not where would you attack our defense early and often?

Bears defense is a mess. 8 unknown or poor starters.  And Va Jay Jay is only a solid starter, not the elite starter they are paying him to be.

What H5 said. I think it's more of a graphical look at where teams can/should look to upgrade in FA/draft.

 

The Bears are interesting though because I don't think they're in a position to upgrade too many of those holes currently in the lineup.

I actually did a search on "Sam" and "Shields" and it appears the article makes NO mention of him.  Are you serious???

 

The main thing that gets me is the incredible lack of talent in the entire interior of the defense, even at the line.

Since Shields will be an UFA he can't be considered a starter for the Packers at this time. Once they [re]sign him he'll be a starter of the "High Quality Starter" category.

 

 

Shields is a Free Agent, so no mention as he's not on "the roster".

ahhhhh!

 

Ok, thanks!

Either I'm just not seeing it (entirely possible) or Morgan Burnett has one of the best PR agents in the biz because here again we're being told he's a "solid starter"/valuable role player.

 

I saw very little of that last season and really not much in 2011 either. Now yes playing along side Jennings does him no favors but I'm sorry I just don't get him being valued this much (and this is not the only source to label him like this,

quote:

Yes as of right now Ryan Taylor and Brandon Bostick are the only TE's under contract and thus are the starters, but does anyone really believe that will be the case in 6 months or even just 1 month?

The Packers will fix the TE situation the way they fixed the backup QB situation last year. 

Yeah because a starting TE and a back-up QB are exactly the same thing. 

This. Maybe there's something I don't get about the safety position. Hell, there's a lot of things I'm sure I don't get about it, but everything I've seen of Morgan Burnett's play suggests to me he's slightly better than mediocre. Like packerboi said, perhaps playing alongside garbage makes him look worse, but I don't think he suddenly starts playing above the level of an average NFL safety if a better guy plays in the backfield with him.

 

And, maybe I'm out in the wilderness on this, but I think they really undervalue Bakhtiari. I think he's going to be really, really good. For a rookie, I don't know what more we as fans could have asked for.

Perhaps I should have mentioned Jeff Saturday instead.  It's possible to make a good faith effort to fix a deficiency at a position, only for that attempt to fail spectacularly.

Bakhtiari wasn't that good, but considering the suituation, he performed about as well as could have been hoped for. He was an underweight, developmental rookie who had to protect on the blind side of a league MVP. Having Sitton next to him helped and there's something to be said for teamwork and chemistry. Colledge/Clifton was an effective pass blocking combo because they worked well together even though Clifton was slowing down and Colledge wasn't a mauler.

 

The league MVP has a much higher opinion of Bakhtiari's performance in 2013 than you do. Oh, and so does Sitton. And basically everyone else.

 

 

 

I think Burnett is being given credit for his play in the run game. He was ranked 3rd among all Safeties in Run Stop %, one of PFF's "Signature Stats."

Bahktari is below average? What the **** were the experts watching last year? 

At worst he was average and at best he was a bonafide LT and solid player

Except PFF and other evaluators. Teammates towed the company line, as they should, guy shows promise. He was a rookie who needed time to develop and didn't get it before having to play. Again, for the situation he was in he did as well as could be expected, he was still just a raw rookie. It's not like he won't get better. He seems to have the right attitude and the base tools to work with. 

 

David Bakhtiari, starting left tackle

 

Season stats: 17 starts, 10 sacks allowed, 28 quarterback hurries allowed, 13 penalties

ProFootballFocus.com season rating: Minus-6.9 (No. 60 out of 76 among NFL offensive tackles this season; ranked last among Packers starting offensive linemen); minus-11 including Green Bay's playoff game.

 

Best game: Week 2 win over Washington (zero QB hurries allowed, zero sacks allowed, one penalty (holding), 3.8 PFF rating)

 

Worst game: Week 3 loss at Cincinnati (four QB hurries allowed, one sack allowed, one penalty (holding), minus-7.1 PFF rating)

 

Expectations at the start of the season: Low

 

Expectations were ... Exceeded

 

Looking live: When the Packers drafted Bakhtiari with the 109th overall pick (fourth round) in the 2013 NFL Draft, it was certainly not with the idea that he'd spend his entire rookie season protecting the blind side of franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Bakhtiari was the youngest player on Green Bay's roster, not even turning 22 until the team's bye week. This was a player who spent his final year in college as a junior playing for a 1-11 University of Colorado team. Based on those qualifications alone, having him as a full-time starter seemed a bit risky for the Packers and a very difficult task to conquer for Bakhtiari. But when Bryan Bulaga tore his ACL in the Family Night scrimmage on Aug. 3, it was a fairly obvious move to give Bakhtiari a shot at left tackle and see how it goes. Derek Sherrod wasn't medically cleared yet and Green Bay didn't want to go another year with Marshall Newhouse in the starting lineup. That left Bakhtiari to learn on the job. By the end of the season, a year in which the only snaps that Bakhtiari missed were in the playoffs due to a concussion, the Packers realized they have a starting tackle in place for many years to come.

Upon further review: Bakhtiari certainly faced his fair share of major challenges in having to block a few of the NFL's better pass rushers. While he wasn't perfect, he held up quite well most of the time. On the positive side, there were two games in which Bakhtiari didn't let his assignment lay a finger on Rodgers. Bakhtiari commented on a couple occasions that his goal was to be a "non-story," which, for the most part, he was. That's because he had very few critical mistakes and had as many games in which he graded out positively as he did negatively (and two of the negative games were against the 49ers and Aldon Smith, which is to be expected for a rookie). Bakhtiari made good progress by the end of the regular season but then didn't hold up well in the playoff loss to San Francisco. Looking at an early game in which Bakhtiari struggled in Cincinnati, he was beat frequently. On a 22-yard completion in the first quarter, Rodgers was crushed by Bengals defensive end Michael Johnson (who was being blocked solely by Bakhtiari with no help) despite getting rid of the pass in 2.1 seconds. Johnson pushed Bakhtiari straight back with almost no resistance. Bakhtiari would've allowed a sack to Johnson early in the second quarter had he not held him (for which he was flagged). But even with the holding penalty on that play, Rodgers still got hit around the knees by Johnson due to Bakhtiari's inability to keep the pressure off. Johnson got the outside edge then used his inside arm to shove Bakhtiari out of the way. On the very next play, Johnson charged in on Bakhtiari, made a quick inside move and was barely touched on his way to sacking Rodgers. As a run blocker throughout the season, Bakhtiari benefitted from playing next to the team's best offensive lineman (Josh Sitton), but he wasn't nearly as good in this area as he was in pass blocking.

 

Overall 2013 grade: B-minus

 

Status for 2014: Ninety-nine percent chance of being one of the Packers' starting tackles. Does Green Bay keep Bakhtiari at left tackle or move him to the right side to give Bulaga back the spot that he lost upon injury? The most logical scenario has Bakhtiari remaining at left tackle in 2014 and beyond. If this is what Bakhtiari looks like when thrown into a situation that few thought he was ready for, he has an incredibly bright future. At age 22, he certainly has time to add strength to his 6-foot-4, 300-pound frame. Having this full season as a starter gained him invaluable

experience that he can use to improve.

 

Bakhtiari was an absolute steal in the fourth round, and the Packers are already seeing significant returns from a player who they didn't expect to be so vital to their plans so early in his career. Get used to seeing Bakhtiari in the starting lineup, because it's where he seems likely to stay for perhaps the rest of Rodgers' career.

So you agree with me then.

 

ProFootballFocus.com season rating: Minus-6.9 (No. 60 out of 76 among NFL offensive tackles this season; ranked last among Packers starting offensive linemen); minus-11 including Green Bay's playoff game.

 

He exceeded expectations for a raw, 4th-round rookie. That doesn't make him a good OT when compared to the rest of the league. Unlike Newhouse though, Bakhtiari looks to be a guy who will improve, quite probably a lot and likely next season even with a full offseason and already having a year of experience to build on. 

Great summary of what I saw. Far from perfect, but far above what could have been expected of him. I really think he takes a step and becomes a solid Top 10 LT for the next decade.

 

Hell, I'll even take the lumps from learning on the job when you compare it to Jermon Bushrod, the "savior" Chicago just threw $36M at who gave up nearly 20 more pressures.

Last year I was on the Schwenke bandwagon and I'm not an EDS fan, but given the (hindsight) choice of Bakhtiari/EDS or Schwenke/Newhouse I'm glad they had the former even with Bakhtiari taking his lumps.

60th out of 76 is good enough for B-minus?  That's some serious grade inflation.

B minus grade + Exceeded expectations  =  Bakhtiari wasn't that good

 

 

 

I think the ranking comes from their grading system. The overall grade for the year is each game's individual grade totaled. They compare that overall grade to the rest of the starting Tackles in the NFL and you get that ranking. His overall grade was -11, but really that number was skewed because of 2 bad games. 0 is an average grade meaning your positive plays and your negative plays completely balance out. Here are his grades for the season from PFF:

 

GB @ SF -1.2

WAS @ GB 3.8                               

GB @ CIN -7.1

DET @ GB -2.0

GB @ BLT -0.8

CLV @ GB -0.9

GB @ MIN 0.2

CHI @ GB 0.8

PHI @ GB 0.0

GB @ NYG -1.0

MIN @ GB -1.1

GB @ DET -2.7

ATL @ GB 0.9

GB @ DAL -1.4

PIT @ GB 3.4

GB @ CHI 2.2

SF @ GB -4.1

 

6 positive grades, 1 average grade, 10 negative grades. 2 bad games against 2 elite pass rushers skewed all of these results. Without those 2 games he has a .2 rating for the season which would be tied for 39th best in the NFL. You look at those numbers though and the positive numbers are not that high and most of the negative numbers are not that low, that tells me he was pretty average. Considering he was a rookie 4th round pick, I think average is pretty dang good. So statistically he graded out as the 60th best Tackle in the NFL, but overall it was a pretty successful season for him and the fact that GB finished the year like 6th in PFF's pass blocking rankings means he wasn't too bad. He clearly was good enough.

You're wrong, Bakhtiari wasn't that good.

It's a fair grade. He was a below-average starter when compared to other OTs in the league however the expectations for a raw, 4th-rounder need to be tempered.

 

He had a positive grade in only 35% of the games played. That's below average.

 

However, there's almost 0 chance he's going to rate well overall when compared to a lot of good, experienced veterans throughout the league. When you try to establish a point of reference/baseline for a "typical" player of his ...pedigree(?)/status which is closer to, say, Newhouse, he certainly exceeded that level of play/expectation (maybe 2-or-3 "positive" games and lower lows), which makes the B- pretty fair using expectations as the "bell curve".

I've got little interest in PFF's grade. I want to know how Bak graded 2013. If he thinks he's got a lot to clean up then we're good. If he thinks he's got it all figured out that's a problem. I still love the pick and his attitude

We were thisclose to Newhouse at LT for 16 weeks last year.

 

Rong.

 

"He wasn't that good" does not summarize his performance nor does it fairly describe his performance.

 

PFF names his worst performance as week 3 at CINN. However, if you recall that games Rodgers had a very off day, throws weren't there and the entire offense came out flat. Yes bacteria had a bad game but so did the entire OL and WR's as well. Not is if he was some eyesore sticking out an otherwise flawless OL or that Rodgers was on fire that day.

 

Then you have to factor the DL's he faced not just in this game but also within the first 4 weeks. He was literally thrown to the wolves facing some of the toughest DL in all the NFL. He adjusted quite well and his confidence grew.

 

As the above says "While he wasn't perfect, he held up quite well most of the time." and "If this is what Bakhtiari looks like when thrown into a situation that few thought he was ready for, he has an incredibly bright future"

 

None of that equates to "he wasn't that good".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think you guys are using different reference points.

 

As a 4th round draft choice, rookie, he was darn good.

 

As a starting tackle compared to all other starting tackles in the league, he was not that good.

 

I think Herschel agrees with the above.

would you trade him for 70% of the other tackles out there?

straight up for Joe Thomas. Duh

That is a different measuring stick in that it includes value due to potential and youth.

He was a big upgrade over the turnstile they trotted out there the previous season.  He faced a veritable murderer's row of pass rushers, which is life in the NFL for a LT.  For the most part, he held up well.  There's no way they were planning on this guy being their everyday starter when he was drafted.

 

He's got nothing but upside ahead of him as long as he stays healthy.  He's got another 10-15 pounds of muscle to add to his frame.  Hopefully he'll have an entire season with the best QB in football and one of the rising RB stars in the league behind him to make him look better at times.

 

He was good last year.  He'll be better this year, and personally I'm pretty excited about his ceiling.  

Great UNBELIEVABLE value in the 4th round.

 

If you re-do the draft he's, at worst, a high 2nd round selection

Comparing with age/experience, talent, potential and salary probably Fischer, Joeckel, Thomas, Kalil, Ferguson, Solder, Tyron Smith, Veldheer, Lane Johnson, Trent Williams, Clady, Staley and maybe Armstead.

 

Whitworth is good but he's 32, Gross is 33 and reportedly retiring young, Okung has too many injuries for my tastes as does Jake Long. Fischer, Johnson, Armstead and Joeckel are speculative. Costanzo is comparable but a couple of years older.

 

Not too shabby for a fourth-rounder.

That bad score came 3 games into his professional career.  3 of his 4 best games came at the end of his first season. 

 

inconsistent rookie?  Sure.

Not very good?  That is pretty arbitrary, but I can factor upside into my evaluation and see that they guy gets more of a thumbs up than thumbs down.  I'd say "good with a lot of upside."  If he had a hot start and graded more poorly late, I would be more concerned.

 

At least we can all agree that AJ Hawk sucked.  Though I can see if someone feels the need to argue he was just 'not very good.'