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Let me say if this comes remotely close to happening, TT is all-time bestest GM who ever lived. Ever.

 

Oh. And Jordy Nelson would have to be kidnapped by the Taliban. Randall Cobb gets lost every Sunday on his way to Lambeau while carpooling with Lacy. And CMIII falls and breaks his vagina in TC. BJ Raji however has his typical production

 

Enjoy...

 

Thanks to Paul Bessire of PredictionMachine.com (who we had on Railbird Central for a pre-draft interview) we are able to get first-year statistical projections for the Green Bay Packers rookie class.

 

Let's get the caveats out of the way. These projections are based upon the assumption each player starts all 16 games on an average NFL team.

Obviously, that's a leap in logic for most most all NFL rookies, but we will note that last year's projection for running back Eddie Lacy was 1,065 yards, 4.6 ypc and 25 receptions, which wasn't all that far off from what Lacy actually produced.

 

These statistics are derived from a completely objective formula using an algorithm that takes into account things like each player's college production, their strength of competition, NFL Combine measurables and previous performances of similar rookies at the same position.

 

So without further ado, here's a fun if flawed look at what the Packers' rookies could be expected to do if they started an entire season:

 

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (3rd-ranked safety by PredictionMachine.com)

72.2 tackles, 3.0 interceptions, 6.6 PBUs

Under the assumption of good health, Clinton-Dix likely will start all 16 games for the Packers in 2014, so these projections are probably not as far fetched as some other players. For comparison's sake, M.D. Jennings—the person whose spot in the lineup Clinton-Dix will replace—had 56 tackles, zero interceptions and one pass broken up in 2013. The Packers greatly upgraded the talent at safety, which should pay dividends in the form of an improved unit that ranked 25th in total defense and 24th in points allowed last season.

 

Davante Adams (12th-ranked wide receiver by PredictionMachine.com)

86.2 receptions, 882.9 yards, 10.2 YPR

Adams should be able to carve out a role on a Packers offense in need of receiving help now that James Jones and Jermichael Finley (at least temporarily) have departed. The only question is, how high can Adams climb on a totem pole that also includes Jordy Nelson, Ranall Cobb and Jarrett Boykin and others. His talent suggests he could become as high as the No. 3 receiver a rookie, a role via which Jones put up some pretty good numbers during his time in Green Bay.

 

Khyri Thornton (39th-ranked defensive tackle by PredictionMachine.com)

30.8 tackles, 1.1 sacks, 5.8 TFLs, 0.5 FF

Thornton was not surrounded by very good talent at Southern Mississippi, which limited some of his own production. But perhaps a sign of his potential is his projected tackles for a loss. Among the defensive tackles ranked 29th through 43rd on the list by Prediction Machine, Thornton's 5.8 TFLs are the highest of the group. The Packers hope they've identified a diamond in the rough whose pro production will be better than what it was in college.

 

Richard Rodgers (21st-ranked tight end by PredictionMachine.com)

34.2 receptions, 445.1 yards, 13.0 YPR

Even though Rodgers is just the 21st-ranked tight end, his projected receptions rank tied for seventh, yards rank third and yards per reception rank fourth. His projected 13.0 yards per reception is also higher than wide receiver Davante Adams. Andrew Quarless figures to be the primary in-line tight end in Green Bay, but Rodgers figures to engage an an intriguing battle with Brandon Bostick as the team's top flex tight end throughout the offseason and training camp.

 

Carl Bradford (8th-ranked outside linebacker by PredictionMachine.com)

54.4 tackles, 7.0 sacks, 11.9 TFLs

Bradford's projected 11.9 tackles for a loss rank third behind only Khalil Mack and Anthony Barr among players classified as outside linebackers. In Green Bay, Bradford will encounter difficulties finding playing time at a position that also includes Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Neal and Nick Perry, but he should be a core special teams player as he continues to develop.

 

Jared Abbrederis (11th-ranked wide receiver by PredictionMachine.com)

66.3 receptions, 779.3 yards, 11.7 YPR

Abbrederis has several concerns entering the NFL. Chief among them are the multiple concussions he's reportedly suffered during his time at Wisconsin. Beyond the medical concerns, he needs to get stronger if he hopes to get off jams by the likes of the Richard Shermans of the NFL. But if he's healthy and gets stronger, the value Abbrederis provides as a receiver as well as a return specialist will greatly benefit the Packers.

 

Jeff Janis (10th-ranked wide receiver by PredictionMachine.com)

78.4 receptions, 914.2 yards, 11.7 YPR

Surprisingly, despite being the Packers' seventh-round and last draft choice in 2014, Janis ranks higher than both Adams and Abbrederis in the Prediction Machine listings with more receptions and more yards. Obviously the formula used in the rankings are influenced heavily by Janis' blazing fast Combine times and production in college against inferior competition. The raw skills are there and the ceiling is high, but Janis will undergo a steep learning curve in acclimating to the NFL.

 

Adrian Hubbard (41st-ranked outside linebacker by PredictionMachine.com)

38.2 tackles, 3.9 sacks, 5.7 TFL

From a purely physical standpoint, Hubbard's NFL comparisons include Jevon Kearse, Brian Urlacher and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. Unfortunately, for having all the physical tools in the world, Hubbard underwhelmed at Alabama and didn't have nearly as much statistical production as he could have. Good thing for the Packers, there's very little risk in signing Hubbard as an undrafted free agent. If he lives up to his potential, they get a steal. If not, the financial investment was minimal and they really only lose the time invested into developing him.

 

 

Rajion Neal (23rd-ranked running back by PredictionMachine.com)

222 carries, 847 yards, 3.8 YPC, 33 receptions, 222 yards, 8 TDs

It was perhaps surprising that the Packers signed two undrafted rookie running backs along with LaDarius Perkins and are reportedly bringing another one for a workout in James Sims. That raises questions about the recovery of Johnathan Franklin and DuJuan Harris from injuries in 2013. But for going the undrafted route, Neal was a productive college running back.

 

LaDarius Perkins (29th-ranked running back by PredictionMachine.com)

206 carries, 689 yards, 3.3 YPC, 35 receptions, 288 yards, 6 TDs

At just 5' 7" and 195 lbs., Perkins is not a workhorse back. But he does have a lot of experience catching the ball out of the backfield and has extensive experience returning kickoffs as well. If the Packers want to relieve Randall Cobb from his special teams duties, Perkins has a shot to replace him.

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Original Post

Replies sorted oldest to newest

this model clearly doesn't take into account how it typically takes receivers a couple years to become productive. 

 

Citing one "hit" with Lacy doesn't exactly make me believe the system has merit. 

how about we have training camp, play the season, take home the Lombardi and THEN total things up?  you know, the way football actually unfolds. 

 

future fantasy number generating algorithms be damned! 

Originally Posted by El-Ka-Bong:

this model clearly doesn't take into account how it typically takes receivers a couple years to become productive. 

 

Citing one "hit" with Lacy doesn't exactly make me believe the system has merit. 

 

IIRC Jennings and Jones racked up around 600-700 yards their rookie years but that's still quite a bit less then what this "machine" is forecasting and for that to come close, Cobb and Nelson would also have to be nowhere near the field.

 

I could see EITHER Abby or Adams rack up 600-700 yards their rookie years but not both. Nelson/Cobb and probably at least early Boykin gets most of the attention.

 

Of all these, probably Dix and Thorton are more realistic. Bradford racking up 7 sacks would be stellar...can't see it happening.

 

 

Last edited by packerboi

HaHa:

75 Tackles

2 sacks

4 INT

9 PDef

 

Davante:

35 Rec.

425 Yards

3 TD

 

Thornton:

15 Tackles

2 sacks

 

Rodgers:

15 Rec.

200 Yards

4 TD

 

Minimal production from the rest. Special Teams production from Bradford (Tackles) and Abberderis (Kick Return).

 

Last edited by Grave Digger
Originally Posted by El-Ka-Bong:

this model clearly doesn't take into account how it typically takes receivers a couple years to become productive. 

 

Citing one "hit" with Lacy doesn't exactly make me believe the system has merit. 

Total buzzkill, man

Bradford will encounter difficulties finding playing time at a position that also includes Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Neal and Nick Perry, but he should be a core special teams player as he continues to develop.

No he won't have any issues getting playing time.  Matthews, Neal, and Perry were all hurt last year.  Perry hasn't had a healthy year yet.  Matthews has been injured for parts of two years running.  The future looks bright for his getting on the field. 

This defense needs a dose of assignment sure, fast, and nasty. Bradford and Thornton fit two of those. No idea if they're capable of learning responsibilities from Capers and I'm sure Dom is crapping apples thinking he may end up with two kids (three including Dix) that have to learn a complex scheme possibly playing significant time. 

 

I would really love to see Barrington or Lattimore make a jump in camp and put down Jones once and for all. 

 

I would have loved to have seen Mosley in GB for the next 10 years because it allows you to plug in a loose cannon next to him that can freelance a bit more and make plays. Mosley is assignment sure and a playmaker. 

 

No regrets on Dix though. That's another assignment sure thinking safety that fills an equally huge need. Dix and Burnett should cover a lot of Hawk and Jones warts. If the OLBs can set the edge and get after the QB this defense can easily be top 10. Maybe better. 

 

Just praying for one year of health to see what this collection of talent is capable of. 

Last edited by ChilliJon

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