The Final Four

The Cavs-Raptors may be among the least compelling Eastern Conference matchups in a while. The Raptors would be a borderline playoff team in the West and the Cavs would be a 4th or 5th seed. Lowry as your best player? He's OK, but the top 5 seeds in the West all have better point guards than him (Curry, Westbrook, Parker, Lillard, and Paul).

Warriors, if healthy, win the other series in 5 or 6 games unless Durant and/or Westbrook absolutely go off. I think Draymond Green and Iguodala are too good of defenders to let Durant go for 45/50 points in a game and Klay Thompson is a good defender for Westbrook.

Either the Warriors or the Thunder blows out the Cavs unless the Cavs play slow down and let LeBron hold the ball and then barrel to the lane at the end of the shot clock.

OKC takes advantage of the rust, and once again the officials blowing an obvious call, and take game 1. 

Westbrook- 11-14 FTs

Warriors: 11 made FTs

Ii  said early that officiating would impact this series. It comes right up first game. It sucks that it always comes up...

The Warriors need a little inside/out to put the pressure on OKC. 

I wouldn't dismiss the Raptors in the East.  Lowry is probably the MVP of the NBA playoffs and they have bigs to rebound and contest shots.  Cleveland is going to get a good challenge.  

It won't matter though as either WC team is significantly better IMO. 

Music City posted:

OKC takes advantage of the rust, and once again the officials blowing an obvious call, and take game 1. 

Westbrook- 11-14 FTs

Warriors: 11 made FTs

Ii  said early that officiating would impact this series. It comes right up first game. It sucks that it always comes up...

The Warriors need a little inside/out to put the pressure on OKC. 

 

If you have told me that Westbrook and Durant would combine to go 17-51 in this game, I would bet a lot of money that the Thunder would lose. Waiters and Roberson going 7-9 FG and 3-3 from deep played a big role. However, the big adjustment Kerr will have to make is how to matchup with Steven Adams. The Thunder were +19 in his 37 minutes and -13 in the 11 minutes he was on the bench. A 1.5 point/minute differential based on his playing time is huge.

Do they play Bogut more or do what they did to the Cavaliers last year in the Finals and double down on the small lineup?

Tschmack posted:

I wouldn't dismiss the Raptors in the East.  Lowry is probably the MVP of the NBA playoffs and they have bigs to rebound and contest shots.  Cleveland is going to get a good challenge.  

It won't matter though as either WC team is significantly better IMO. 

Admittedly, I did not see Lowry play during the regular season, but he's shooting 36% in the playoffs (28% from 3) as a high volume shooter (17 shots/game). He also has a Assist/Turnover ration of 6.7/3.0. I don't see MVP material there.

Tschmack posted:

I wouldn't dismiss the Raptors in the East.  Lowry is probably the MVP of the NBA playoffs and they have bigs to rebound and contest shots.  Cleveland is going to get a good challenge.  

It won't matter though as either WC team is significantly better IMO. 

Tscmack. I guess we'll see tonight, but I don't see Raptors-Cavs being competitive. I'd like to see a team like the Raptors win because it would give some hope to fans that you could win without assembling (or being astute enough to draft) 2-3 mega-stars on the same team.

I think the 3 best players on the floor will be on the Cavs (Lebron, Irving, and Love). I'm just not sold on Lowry or the Raptors. They beat an Indiana team with one good player (Paul George- who is still getting back to where he was prior to his horrific broken leg) and a Heat team missing one of its two best players (Chris Bosh).

It was too easy... Raptors will win game 2, like the Thunder did to the Spurs. 

About the Warriors/Thunder, I would put Bogut on the floor and try to tilt the rebound edge back. Go big, pound them in the paint until they adjust, then unleash the aerial assault. 

Cleveland just completely overwhelmed them and Toronto put up zero fight defensively which isn't how they've been playing. 

Irving was 11-17 and LeBron was 11-13?  Lots of easy layups and you won't beat those guys if you play like that.  The Raptors appeared way too concerned about 3 point shooting that they forgot to defend underneath.  

Wow. Complete dominance tonight by the Warriors. That's what I thought we'd see in game #1.

Game #3 will be epic!

It's almost surreal watching Warriors games when Curry goes off like he did in the 3rd quarter last night.

The way Durant started in the first half I thought he might hit 50 for the game. I was too busy watching Curry to appreciate what the change was in their approach to defending Durant in the 2nd half last night.

Bogut/Speights/Ezeli: 39 minutes, 29 points, 13 rebounds, 12-13 fgs. 

Adams/Kanter: 51 minutes, 15 points, 12 rebounds, 7-11 fgs

Pretty much the key difference from game 1. If Thompson can find his shot, it's over...

Pretty evenly matched series in the west.  OKC got really sloppy at the end of the half and it was almost a 10 point swing.  

Guess Toronto is just going to roll over & let Cleveland waltz into the finals. 

Yeah, thought Cleveland was going to stumble a bit  and Toronto had one good one in them. Nope...

Cleveland should still win the series but I am wondering if Kevin Love is hurt.  He was awful in game 3 and just didn't look comfortable at all. 

Toronto finally figured out you can't allow so many easy points in the paint and you have to dare guys like LeBron to beat you from outside. 

First playoff loss for the Cavs is more of an indication of how bad the East is than how really good they are IMO.    It also should give a team like Milwaukee hope because with a couple of more tweaks to the roster they could be right there in the mix. 

Cleveland might not have made it out of the second round in the West especially had the Clippers been in it without the Paul injury. 

Disappointing. Wanted the Warriors to be the first team to hand them a loss. 

OKC is just pummeling the Warriors.  25 point lead at half and its not even that close.  Thunder are way more aggressive on the boards and in the paint and terrible  defensive effort by GS.  When the shots aren't falling you need to D up and GS looking like crap right now. 

Game 4 will likely determine the winner of the Western conference (Captain Obvious alert).

The Warriors definitely have matchup problems with Durant and Westbrook, but most teams do. The strategy of giving up wide open shots to Waiters and #21 (forget his name) hasn't worked well, and they aren't stopping the Big 2 even when they do that.

Draymond Green has looked like a 2nd round pick from MSU this series. They've clearly got in his head and he's the guy the Warriors defense revolves around.

Yeah, OKC is a totally different team with Donovan as the coach. Wasn't impressed with that hire- but like the Brad Stevens hire, total vindication. 

Toronto gets a win, but they had to get a crap shooting night from Love/Irving and Derozen on fire to get a W. I don't think it'll continue. 

But the OKC team is making a pretty loud statement. And Green should be suspended- that sh*t has no place in the game, star or no...

Well, Toronto is dominating Cleveland at halftime.  Cavs bombing away from long distance but 3-21.  Brilliant strategy Cavs.  Way to keep the Raptors in this series idots.   C Town is going to get worked in the Finals. 

OKC just flat out boat raced Golden State in game 3.  They got really lucky Dumbass Green didn't get suspended because if he did that series is over.   I still think it's over as the Thunder are just the better team.   Great entertaining matchup nonetheless. 

Was in OKC last week for work and that town is nutty about the Thunder.  Fun team to watch.  Reminds me a lot of the 2001 Bucks team and Billy Donovan is a mad scientist ala George Karl.  Not that I dislike the Warriors but I am pulling for Westbrook and Durant to win one.  Easily the best 1-2 punch in the game. 

And another thing - great trade for Kevin Love morons.  He is sucking ass right now.  Maybe he's hurt for the 1,000th time.   Maybe he's just overrated.  Who knows, but right now he's killing that team.   They will not win a title if he doesn't step up. 

Well well well... Toronto trying to make it a series... 

Tschmack posted:

And another thing - great trade for Kevin Love morons.  He is sucking ass right now.  Maybe he's hurt for the 1,000th time.   Maybe he's just overrated.  Who knows, but right now he's killing that team.   They will not win a title if he doesn't step up. 

If he wasn't hurt so badly that he was unable to play, you have to wonder about why he was on the bench the whole 4th quarter. The Cavs got killed by giving up second chance possessions to the Raptors by Biyombo beating Channing Frey on the glass. Frey just wasn't big enough to hold him off. Kevin Love is on this team to shoot threes and rebound. Again, if he was healthy enough to play, it's very questionable to leave him on the bench in that situation.

Also, some questionable officiating in this one worked against the Cavs for once. The play where Lowry stole the ball from Lebron and got two shots on the other end was as bad a missed call in the open floor you'll ever see. Lowry hacked him across the middle of his arm in the open floor. How do you miss that?

Music City posted:

Yeah, OKC is a totally different team with Donovan as the coach. Wasn't impressed with that hire- but like the Brad Stevens hire, total vindication. 

Toronto gets a win, but they had to get a crap shooting night from Love/Irving and Derozen on fire to get a W. I don't think it'll continue. 

But the OKC team is making a pretty loud statement. And Green should be suspended- that sh*t has no place in the game, star or no...

Green has begun to morph into a Dennis Rodman-like character. He definitely has some crazy in him and the Thunder have gotten to him and brought this out.

I guess I'm surprised but in not. I didn't think Toronto was going to even things up. But that's on the Cavs- wtf was JR Smith doing on D against Lowry? He blew by him standing still. Lowry's good, but to get all the way to the cup? An uncontested layup? That almost looked, um, purposeful. 

Mathis guarantees another week of playoffs before the finals. How convenient...

I see at least a game 6 in the East and most likely game 7 in the West

As a neutral observer, I should be enjoying one of the best Western conference finals ever, but the officiating is atrocious. I'm watching the first half. A moving screen called on one end against Bogut and then allow several moving screens to get Durant and Westbrook open the other end that are much worse than what Bogut did.

I don't know what the conspiracy theory is here - keep Durant in OKC, make up for Green playing, but the lack of any consistency makes you wonder what's going on. 

Also probably more importantly, Steph Curry has just been awful tonight. If you didn't know any better, you'd think he was a scrub playing because of foul trouble to other players. I like the guy, but if this continues you'd have to consider it an all-time level choke by an MVP-level player. 1-10 in what is almost a must-win game and he's missing wide open shots. 

Ezeli also killing them on the hack-a-Ezeli. If they're not careful, this game is going to get away from them right at the end of the half. It's already a 16 point game. 

18 point game. 

Steph Curry still playing like absolute ****. 

Draymond Green has a plus/minus of -29 in the first half right now. 

Stick a fork in the Warriors. 

OKC is dominating the Warriors physically and on the glass.  This GS team is just run and gun - forget playing D and they are missing shots and turning the ball over like crazy.  Thunder with 72 in one half are you kidding me? 

Dude... They gave up +70 again in a half of basketball. That's not getting it done. 

The Warriors are one 15 point in 2 minute stretch from Curry in Game 2 away from getting swept. This series has not been close.

Draymond Green in OKC

2 games, 70 minutes

2-16 FGs, 0-4 3FGs,  5 Assists/10 turnovers, -73 on +/-

I don't think I've ever seen a single player lose his confidence/swagger this quickly ever. Draymond Green looks like he just wants the season to end so he can go hide somewhere.

Also, I love watching Steph Curry, but Westbrook has just abused him during this series and it hasn't been pretty. Curry just can't guard him when he gets switched onto him.

Both Westbrook and Durant are such matchup nightmares because of their length.  Westbrook goes 6'4" but with his hops and athleticism he plays a lot more like 6'6" as a PG.  As for Durant - he's like KG.  When he's on nobody can defend that guy.  He can rise up and shoot over you or put the ball on the deck and drive to the hoop.  His D in this series has also been very good. 

I think one reason Curry is struggling is Westbrook is wearing him out trying to defend him.  No easy task. 

Predictable outcome- Cavs dominate and Warriors win at home.