The Packers offense in 2020.

AR needs to trust the young man. That's on 12.

I just want to see things run more smoothly, and I want to see more variety in the offense. There was more variety than in MM's day, but I think there have to be additional looks off the same sets. And in the first year of a new offense, things need to be smoother and run faster. At times, when it flowed, you could see how this offense can rack up the yards and points, but that happened too few times. Also, the other article posted about play-action was an excellent insight. They ran more play-action last year, yet while almost every other QB had better stats when using p-a, Rodgers was near the bottom. That was eye-opening.

@packerboi posted:

What GB's offense should look like in year 2

Apologies if this was posted before. This is a pretty damn good, detailed breakdown of what the Packers offense was under MM and what it could be in 2020 in year 2. 

Snip: 

Excited to see how #Packers TE Jace Sternberger (@_Jstern) game develops into Year 2

First and foremost - hope to see more targets in the pass game! pic.twitter.com/VYfvL7840e

— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) March 21, 2020

Sternberger practically walks into the end zone on the second one...

@Fandame posted:

Sternberger practically walks into the end zone on the second one...

Yep. And in an infamous "exchange" between AR and MLF last season along the sidelines after another play where AR either didn't see the open WR or refused to throw to him , the "exchange" went something along the lines of:

AR: "What did you want me to do?" 

MLF' "I wanted you to throw the fucking ball!" 

That exchange was talked about extensively on talk radio last season but when you manage to win 14 games, it's not going to get much traction. At the same time, you do have to wonder how many plays like that did MLF draw up where the coach is reviewing the film, sees a WR/RB/TE running wide open and then wonders why the hell AR didn't throw it. 

And then drafts the next young QB,,,,

Maybe it will wake up Rodgers to a) throw the ball even if it's not to Adams, b) throw the ball short when it's open, c) throw the ball to a checkdown when needed rather than throwing it away, d) throw the ball instead of running it, e) throw the ball.

He does need to perform better.

Rodgers, or Adams?

Rodgers. Adams is aces.

Rodgers played in the same offense for 13 years and had an encyclopedic knowledge of it, where everybody was, how the different defenses reacted to it and where his outlets were. He was a maestro with elite skills to execute it.

So if it takes a little while to transition to MLFs offense, that really isn't much of a surprise. Timing is really critical and the blocking, route and QB drops all have to be synced up and those are all different than they were in the past. 

Matt Ryan blossomed in year 2 in this offense, winning MVP and going to SB
I suspect we'll see a similar improvement and more consistency in 2020 from Aaron as he assimilates the offense

If you look at GB offensive rankings in 2019, we see some hints of what it can look like next year. In 2019, they were jekyll & hyde:

1st and 3rd quarters, GB is 5th and 6th in scoring in entire league
2nd and 4th quarters, GB is down near the bottom at 26th and 27th.

One reason for that is GB is coming out and running their offensive script early, looking like a well-oiled machine... only to see things fall apart when they got off the script in Q2 and 4. There are always other factors at play, including penalties, but the difference between quarters is startling to see and offers some hints.

The 2019 Packers went from 32nd in rushing attempts the year before up to number 16, and that's about where MLF wants to be - middle of the pack.

Some fans assumed that the drafted RB and drafted H-Back mean even more running, but I think what MLF has said was that he wants to be able to run/pass from each personnel package with equal aplomb to keep the defense guessing.

Last year, Graham, Vitale and Allison sucked. Now they're all gone and their replacements represent an upgrade to the offense in both run and pass plays.

As I noted earlier, we've already seen this offense operate at a Top 5 level, we just need it to be more consistently at that level and I have faith they will based on:
Year 2 in the offense
Upgrades in personnel
Better communication from MLF, Hackett, Getsy and Rodgers on gameday

2019 offense scored 23.6 pts/game - if they can add 1 FG/game that puts them at around # 6,  # 7 in the NFL, plenty good enough to challenge for a Title.

Less concerned about the offense than I am the defense. The unpleasant memory of the Packer run defense in the NFC title game lingers.....

@Satori posted:

 

1st and 3rd quarters, GB is 5th and 6th in scoring in entire league
2nd and 4th quarters, GB is down near the bottom at 26th and 27th.

One reason for that is GB is coming out and running their offensive script early, looking like a well-oiled machine... only to see things fall apart when they got off the script in Q2 and 4. There are always other factors at play, including penalties, but the difference between quarters is startling to see and offers some hints.

As I noted earlier, we've already seen this offense operate at a Top 5 level, we just need it to be more consistently at that level and I have faith they will based on:
Year 2 in the offense
Upgrades in personnel
Better communication from MLF, Hackett, Getsy and Rodgers on gameday

 

I agree some of it can be laid at MLF's feet. He admitted he did not always get the play in as fast as he would like, and that he wasn't as coordinated/smooth with his playcalls as he wants to be. The good part is that he admitted he needs to improve his game as well, and I have no doubt he will. It was only his second year play-calling, and he was also head coach. That's a big jump for him, too. It's kind of remarkable everything worked out last year the way it did... 14 wins? wow.

12 was exponentially smarter than McVince and spent most of his career running the offense as be saw fit.

MLF is a smart dude...12 would do well to humble himself and run the fucking offense like his HC wants.

The above post reminds me of Bag A Donuts Winters when he turned to T.J. Rubley in the Vikings' game and said something to the effect of:  "...just run the damn play."  

I don't think it'll get that bad for A.R. however.  

Yeah, TJ's audible worked out great, didn't it.  

@Chongo posted:

12 was exponentially smarter than McVince and spent most of his career running the offense as be saw fit.

MLF is a smart dude...12 would do well to humble himself and run the fucking offense like his HC wants.

Not to mention it also bodes well for AR's career if he plans to play to 40 or more. 

Why? Because in a MLF offense, it is run centric, meaning that the "sandlot" style of football AR was playing in where he was waiting forever for guys to get open AR no longer has to do. And it's also likely MLF will probably run the ball somewhere around 55/45 or 60/40 percent of the time. That's a far cry from what MM did, even when he had an in shape Eddie Lacy and a woefully underused Aaron Jones. 

Couple that with a passing offense that designs WR's open (Hell's Bells, what a concept) and has the QB getting rid of the football in under 3.5 seconds, it means AR's jersey is likely to stay pretty damn clean game in and out. And that in turn means Rodgers will be walking off the field feeling pretty healthy and a much greater chance he will stay healthy enough to play longer. 

Solid analysis

@packerboi posted:

And it's also likely MLF will probably run the ball somewhere around 55/45 or 60/40 percent of the time. 

That would be a helluva jump from 2019.

And, compare to a couple other teams running the MLF type offense.

Only 3 NFL Teams ran more than they threw in 2019: Ravens, 9ers, Viks.

And Ravens stats are that way because L-Jax is basically a RB playing QB.

Right now it's a passing league for sure...Pettine is right about his approach, but you gotta find a way to stop the Whiners. Hell, you gotta find a way to stop the run game better period. How many games last year did the Packers have a big lead and have to white-knuckle it to hang on in the end?

I don't think Packers will every put up run/pass stats like SF...but they can get closer. 55/45 Pass to Run would be a dream, because that tells me we were able to keep the defense off the field in key moments. 

Packers will also help themselves by adding diversity to both their run and pass game, and that's what I think the draft and off-season moves were about. You add Dillon and Deguara and it says you are trying to improve your power game, and add a more consistent passing threat from RB/FB/HB slots...something they tried like hell with Vitale to do, but couldn't ever get there. Graham was not a good fit in this offense. I think #12 locked in on him too much when #17 wasn't open. #12 needs to trust MLF and use his progressions. More than the running game, the Whiners were dangerous because they had so many options in pass and run game. That's not because they are great at the draft it's because they got players that run the offense.

I trust #12 is a smart guy, and in year two will be more comfortable, as will be the cast around him. Last year was one of growing pains. There were times he went to old habits when things broke down. He improvised as he's had to do for 10+ years. 

I am not sold that Love will be the starting QB in 2-3 years. If Rodgers works within the scheme and this team wins a Super Bowl, and they can get multiple picks for Love, I could see them parting ways.

@Chongo posted:

And Ravens stats are that way because L-Jax is basically a RB playing QB.

Niners stats are that way because their QB is very average. 😉

Niners stats are that way because they ran 98% of the time vs GB. It boosted their numbers.  

"and they can get multiple picks for Love, I could see them parting ways."

The only way Love generates that kind of trade value is if Rodgers gets hurt for a significant spell (6-8 weeks) and Love fills in like a pro bowler.

Rodgers stats over his 1st 3 years- 7 appearances- no starts-35/59-330 yards-1 td-1 int. Remember how most of the world was shocked when the Packers went with Rodgers over Favre? These numbers are the reason.

And we thought Rodgers was injury-prone.

I only remember the impressive Rodgers appearance when Favre got hurt in Dallas. As I recall, his first year as a starter wasn't too impressive.

@grignon posted:

"and they can get multiple picks for Love, I could see them parting ways."

The only way Love generates that kind of trade value is if Rodgers gets hurt for a significant spell (6-8 weeks) and Love fills in like a pro bowler.

Rodgers stats over his 1st 3 years- 7 appearances- no starts-35/59-330 yards-1 td-1 int. Remember how most of the world was shocked when the Packers went with Rodgers over Favre? These numbers are the reason.

I remember some dumb fuck journalist and his hot take that the Packers should have taken Ryan Fitzpatrick instead of Rodgers based on their first couple of seasons. 

@YATittle posted:

I only remember the impressive Rodgers appearance when Favre got hurt in Dallas. As I recall, his first year as a starter wasn't too impressive.

 

You recall incorrectly. While, yes, the TEAM was 6-10....their shiny new QB was not the reason.

Scroll down to year 2008. Rodgers also beat Peyton Manning that year in Lambeau (the defense helped too )

https://www.nfl.com/players/aa...rodgers/stats/career

Nice highlights of AR in 2007:

@Boris posted:

You recall incorrectly. While, yes, the TEAM was 6-10....their shiny new QB was not the reason.

Scroll down to year 2008. Rodgers also beat Peyton Manning that year in Lambeau (the defense helped too )

https://www.nfl.com/players/aa...rodgers/stats/career

Boss, the guy threw 13 ints and had ALMOST the lowest QB rating of his career....

But his 2008 stats are nearly identical to his Super Bowl Year stats of 2010.  Guess he was not impressive then too.

@YATittle posted:

Boss, the guy threw 13 ints and had ALMOST the lowest QB rating of his career....

If Jordan Love has those stats in his first year of starting, I'll be beyond thrilled.

Since when is 13 INT's a lot for any QB not named Aarod Rodgers? He also had 28 TD passes & 4,000+ yards. Rodgers was not the reason they were 6-10 in 2008. Rodgers played well for the most part. Perfect or Aaron Rodgers level? No, but pretty damn decent for a first year starter without a lot of help.

I believe 13 is the number of INTs Favre had in the Super Bowl season: 39 TD, 13 INT.

The rule changes of the last 15 years have really had an effect on INT rates.

Yeah, that Dallas game gave us a glimpse of what Rodgers could be. He made some really good throws. And I remember thinking in that game for some reason that Favre did not want to be there, that he didn't want to play. I don't recall what gave me that impression, but I recall thinking that he was done, that he wanted out. 

@Boris posted:

If Jordan Love has those stats in his first year of starting, I'll be beyond thrilled.

Since when is 13 INT's a lot for any QB not named Aarod Rodgers? He also had 28 TD passes & 4,000+ yards. Rodgers was not the reason they were 6-10 in 2008. Rodgers played well for the most part. Perfect or Aaron Rodgers level? No, but pretty damn decent for a first year starter without a lot of help.

I've learned a few things in my half century on this planet:

The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: never argue with box score scouts on the internet

https://packerswire.usatoday.c...ampaign=pos2headline

As some would say, another "puff" piece.

Yeah & since our box score scout, YA Tittle, gave you a "thumbs up" I'll stop arguing with our box score hero @YATittle 

Left side of the OL is staaaaacked!

Guess that makes the Lane Taylor re-signing icing on the cake.

I'm looking forward to seeing EQ this fall, and while cruising around the internet, I came across his father/mentor

EQ's Dad was a badass back in his bodybuilding days

While I think we all get how talented Adams is, the fact of the matter is he's getting too much attention on the field from Rodgers while other players are running free. In this clip, he tries to hit a fairly well covered Tonyan while 33 is wide open for almost a sure first down:

It’s understandable why Aaron Rodgers throws so many passes to Davante Adams. The All-Pro wide receiver is a special player who tortured the Bengals’ secondary for 68 minutes. Still, targeting the former Fresno State star on nearly half of his attempts – which was the case on Sunday – is simply too much. Rodgers needs to trust other receivers, especially when the field shrinks. One reason the offense was historically efficient inside the 20 last season was No. 12’s willingness to spread the ball around to players not wearing No. 17.

Just hit Aaron Jones man pic.twitter.com/SdjGRLU9rv

— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) October 11, 2021

I also wonder how much of this is pointed out in film review with Rodgers from MLF and/or Hackett. And then I wonder when it is pointed out, how much he listens to it...