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There is so much that can be said about last night's embarrassing loss -- and has been. All the analysis by McGinn and other Packer writers, comments from the coaches and players about why we lost the way we did. Defensive scheme, preparedness/bye advantage, coaching (or lack thereof), turnovers, home field, etc. I just add this element that I haven't seen:

The 49ers are an excellent team. But they were aided tremendously by the fact that they played with 100% of their starters. What must have been going through Thompson's mind as he thought about the fact that 3 of his last 4 #1 picks weren't on the field, and neither was his best ILB. Missing Sherrod, Bulaga, Perry and Bishop is a incredible talent drain. Add in Worthy and Benson. And now reverse the situation. Imagine for arguments sake we had ALL of those guys on the field last night. Now remove the 49er equivalents: OT's Staley and Davis; ILB Willis or Bowman; OLB Smith or Brooks; DE McDonald and HB Gore. Is there any doubt we would have won that game? I don't think so. We were severely undermanned against a similarly talented, but significantly advantaged team being literally 100% healthy.
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No need for knee jerk reactions. We probably lost to the Super Bowl champ this year (AGAIN!)

We tried. Didn't work out. Niners were far & away the better team & deserved to win but you know what?? It took US to bring it out of them. We are the team that other teams want to be, the team other teams fear.

You make really good points. I'm not happy but I'm over it.
When you have the success GB's had for so many years (let's remember TT/MM is 74-38 w/l) we have to remember that success also translates to GB having consistently drafting at or near the bottom of the draft year in and year out. There was an exception the year they got Raji but when you look at SF, Seattle, even the Redskins these are all teams that have wildly benefited from drafting the cream of the crop because they sucked for so many years. Unless your name is Matt Millen, yes eventually your going to assemble some very talented players when your constantly picking in the top 10.

It's precisely how the NFL is built and how parity flourishes in this league. Make no mistake. The NFL wants nothing to do with dynasties any longer. They simply don't make the money parity does. The NFL knows this.

That TT, despite drafting at the bottom of the barrel year in and out managed to get blue chippers like CMII, Rodgers, and found gems in the 2nd like Cobb, Jennings, Collins etc not only is ridiculous but I have no doubt it also pisses the NFL off.
It's not that simple. Most of the players you are "replacing" are significantly better than ours.

Staley > Sherrod
Gore > Benson
Willis > Bishop
Brooks > Perry

I understand your assertion that injuries played a role, but let's not brush off the loss by rationalizing it away. That SF team is LOADED, especially on defense. I don't think the outcome would have been much different if GB were 100% healthy.

GB is better than SF in two areas, and only two areas. QB and WR. It wasn't enough... not even close.
quote:
Originally posted by bubbleboy789:
Niners have one player on IR, if I recall correctly. ONE.

I mean, can you imagine? Sherrod, Bulaga, Bishop and Perry. 3 first round picks and an elite, pro bowl ILB.

Give me a break.


Also, take a look at their O-Line. Not 1, 2 or 3 but FOUR 1st round draft picks. Gore is a 3rd rounder. Vernon Davis was #6 overall. Justin Smith was 10th overall I believe (Bengals) and Aldon Smith was 6th overall. Crabtree was drafted one slot after Raji. Randy Moss is a first rounder. Seeing a pattern here?

They're loaded....but you know what? We had a chance to beat them, with undrafted Free Agents & backups. The Niners (and the NFL) are breathing a sigh of relief the Packers didn't win last night.

quote:
Originally posted by bubbleboy789:
4/25/13


I'll be there. Got the hotel room booked already
I think the underlying problem is that our defense is built to beat teams like the Saints, Lions, and Patriots (and the Cardinals in 2009 with Kurt Warner). That is, TT has drafted cover cornerbacks and safeties to combat spread formations with multiple receivers. We don't have an answer for run heavy offenses. Not sure how to fix it since it's the same problem all teams have, since it's difficult to have both the speedy cover guys you need to cover guys like Julio Jones, Percy Harvin, etc. while having good tacklers for RBs and now QBs on the edge.
OK, so it's hard for a low drafting team to beat a high drafting team? Is that it? So now what? How do you 'fix' that? How do you move forward? How do you find a way to beat that team? Those are the real questions TT needs to deal with, as the world turns.

Hopefully schemes are developed to counter the likes of Copernicus (the niners O revolves around him) and RG3 because right now we don't have that answer. It will be very interesting to see how ATL/SEA or NE/BAL deal with him. Will it be scheme or personnel?
quote:
We don't have an answer for run heavy offenses.


Completely disgree.

Nick Perry, Worthy, Raji, Pickett (Did you forget he got hurt last night?) & oh yeah a small guy named Desmond Bishop, not to mention Woodson & Clay Matthews.

Stopping the run isn't a problem. Just need our guys healthy to do it.

When we're healthy we can shut down the run or pass.

quote:
It will be very interesting to see how ATL/SEA or NE/BAL deal with him. Will it be scheme or personnel?


Deal with him? The Niners are going to win the Super Bowl. I said it before the game. The 2 best teams in the NFL played last night. The winner is going to win it all
We're a spoiled bunch, myself included. MM has a .661 win percentage and has had ONE losing season.

We're constantly in the playoffs and even in losses, were RARELY if ever blown out.

We have the highest rated QB in NFL history and the one with the highest rating in playoff history as well.

We've had essentially 2, 2!!!!! QB's since 1992. One is a HOFer to be and the other is well on his way. 21 years of HOF-like play. Think about that.

Christ, how many teams would kill for this?
San Fran has a significant advantage in Ol, Dl, and running back but the advantage in linebacking is almost obscene. Just hear the names; Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis, Navarro and Brooks. These are all top of the line, A-one, fast, tough tackling machines. Doesn't matter how San Fran got them, they're there. Now hear our names; Mathews, a stud, than... A.J. Hawk, Brad Jones, Erik Walden and Dezman Moses. And we talk about drafting another receiver high to replace Jennings, or O line to protect Rodgers, or a hard hitting safety. We could draft the next coming of Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas and Ronnie Lott and we'd still be at a disadvantage because of our dire need for linebackers. Bishop and D.J. Smith are coming back, but they aren't the equivalent of the San Fran backers either. We have no second line of defense. None. Now here's a slightly less than apocryphal old fart entry; when I was a boy we had Nitschke in the middle. Saw it with my own eyes; Nitschke would push blockers into the backfield and tackle both the blocker and the runner. He'd chase down ballcarriers all over the field and plant them in the ground and when they got up they were afraid to look at Nitschke because the growl behind the missing teeth would scare them to hell. Teams didn't like to run against the Pack because Nitshcke and Dave Robinson had their heads up looking to kick some ass. Now we have Hawk in the middle. See Hawk run... with his head down right up Pickett's ass as Kapperpunk goes right by him. Watch the game again if you have the stomach and See Hawk run. See Hawk at the ten yard line as Gore comes through, and see Hawk run, backwards, so that he can make one of his infamous pile on tackles, at the goal line. We probably would have lost this game even with Nitschke in the middle, but one of the best things we can do next year, is play the season without A.J. Hawk on the field. And I thank him for his service
quote:
Originally posted by Boris:
quote:
We don't have an answer for run heavy offenses.


Completely disgree.

Nick Perry, Worthy, Raji, Pickett (Did you forget he got hurt last night?) & oh yeah a small guy named Desmond Bishop, not to mention Woodson & Clay Matthews.

Stopping the run isn't a problem. Just need our guys healthy to do it.

When we're healthy we can shut down the run or pass.



I agree we have the front 7, it's the DBs that are the problem. The Vikings schemed to make Tramon Williams play the run. You can't take out Tramon because he's our best cover CB. Other than Woodson, who in the defensive backfield plays the run well consistently? Nick Collins was a huge difference maker for this.
The biggest mismatch in week 1 and yesterday was the 49ers offensive line vs. the Pack's front 7. That offensive line has reached a point where I would say they're the most physical line I've seen in a long long time. The Pack's front 7 just doesn't have enough juice to deal with it. Frankly, almost nobody can deal with them, they're just that good.

The best thing you can do is keep the ball away from them with your own offense. The Pack's offense was good but not great yesterday. The 2 turnovers among other things were killers in terms of trying to limit 49er possessions.
I think once you win a SB with so many guys on IR like the Pack did in '10, it dissolves the argument of being undermanned due to health issues. Have the Niners been fortunate this year on that front? Sure they have. But that sort of good fortune is part of the game just like injuries are part of the game.

We got steamrolled by a more physical team once again. Ted and Mike need to evaluate and determine the best way going forward. The read option is a wrinkle that has to be taken into account, but you don't sell out your entire philosophy to counter it.

I think the writing was on the wall a week ago, when the GB defense set their goal at keeping AP under 200 yards. Throw in a true running qb who has a clue, and it's a recipe for disaster, given the fact that they apparently were ill-prepared and failed to maintain their gaps. They constantly got sucked in by a very good Kaepernick play fake.

Like always, all 3 units go hand in hand on a team contending for a title. Special teams needs to play sound,fundamental football, and secure the ball. Offense needs a decent balance of run/pass, and TOP to keep their defense somewhat fresh, and defense needs to get a 3 and out once in a while along with big plays. None of these things happened last night.
But you shouldn't have to rely on your DB's to consistently have to tackle in the run game. They should be able to tackle, but your front seven should be able to make 90% of the tackles in the run game. The reason why our DB's poor tackling is so obvious is b/c the LB's aren't making the tackles themselves.

The only benefit of last night is that it should be the nail in the coffin for Hawk and Walden. This defense will never be elite with guys like that in the front seven.
I mentioned this yesterday on another thread but as a group, the Niners OL and LBs (collectively) might be the best in the NFL. They also have an outstanding RB, TE, and their bookend DEs are outstanding.

That's a really good team IMO.

In comparison, the Packers have an elite QB, the best WR group in the NFL, and a solid DB group. They also have a top tier pass rusher (CMIII) and one of the better DT in Raji.

If the Packers play their best game they beat the 9ers. However, as we saw last night that didn't happen.

I'm not going to panic and suggest they blow up the team because I still believe Green Bay with Rodgers is one of the 3-4 best teams in the conference. Assuming they continue to invest in good draft picks they should remain in the mix for several years.

Yes the loss last night sucked but I have faith in TT and MM.
quote:
Originally posted by packerboi:
We're a spoiled bunch, myself included. MM has a .661 win percentage and has had ONE losing season.

We're constantly in the playoffs and even in losses, were RARELY if ever blown out.

Christ, how many teams would kill for this?


In my first 20 years of following the Packers, they made the playoffs twice. In the past 20 years, they've made the playoffs 15 times and won two Super Bowls. Yeah, last night was disappointing, but I'm happy that I'm a fan of this team.
The 49'ers have better players than Green Bay if the Packers had zero players on IR. That's just the painful facts. They had 2nd tier free-agents and late round picks too. They are a much more physical team that has caught the Packers unprepared (out schemed them if you prefer) defensively twice this year and have not been shy about saying it post game.

Face it. We were as healthy as we were going to be in the finale vs. Christian Ponder and the Vikings and the defense was shredded in the air and on ground. The Packers need healthy bodies but they need better players.
quote:
Originally posted by Pakrz:
It's not that simple. Most of the players you are "replacing" are significantly better than ours.

Staley > Sherrod
Gore > Benson
Willis > Bishop
Brooks > Perry

I understand your assertion that injuries played a role, but let's not brush off the loss by rationalizing it away. That SF team is LOADED, especially on defense. I don't think the outcome would have been much different if GB were 100% healthy.

GB is better than SF in two areas, and only two areas. QB and WR. It wasn't enough... not even close.


Great post.

Look, TT certainly deserves credits for finding these gems like Barclay or Moses who do an admirable job when pressed into duty. And MM deserves a ton of credit for continually helping this team overcome adversity.

But I think we're kidding ourselves a bit if we somehow are comparing the loss of a total unknown like Sherrod to San Francisco hypothetically losing their top tackle. San Francisco has had ample opportunity over the years to rebuild its team and they've done a great job of doing it. Certainly the Packers were hurt by injury this year and prior years (the Collins injury is a real killer). But outside of Desmond Bishop, most of these injuries were to unproven players. Perry might develop into a good pro someday, but losing him isn't the same as losing a guy like Ahmad Brooks.

The other comment that I see a lot in these threads is that we shouldn't have a "knee-jerk" reaction to last night. And while I agree with that sentiment, I think I disagree on the definition of "knee-jerk". Because the unfortunate truth is that the defensive performance last night was not some outlier that was the result of a perfect storm of great opponent and injury ravaged defense. Rather, it was something that's been a consistent theme in 3 of the last 4 years. At this point, I don't think there is anything "knee-jerk" about the observation that this team struggles against good QBs. They can shut down the below average ones, and certainly have Jay Cutler's number. But the 2010 season is standing out as the outlier when it comes to defensive performance.
While the Niner QB won't run for 200, take a good look at the start of the ATL/SEA game. Ryan & crew ramming the ball right down the throats of the hags.

He was late on that throw & they should have 7 but ended up with 3. Meanwhile....the "vaunted" Seattle Seahawks just went 3 & out & Jon Ryan with a shank.

Yeah I think you're about to see how over rated the Seahawks are.
quote:
Originally posted by Pakrz:
It's not that simple. Most of the players you are "replacing" are significantly better than ours.

Staley > Sherrod
Gore > Benson
Willis > Bishop
Brooks > Perry

I understand your assertion that injuries played a role, but let's not brush off the loss by rationalizing it away. That SF team is LOADED, especially on defense. I don't think the outcome would have been much different if GB were 100% healthy.

GB is better than SF in two areas, and only two areas. QB and WR. It wasn't enough... not even close.


Not disagreeing that if both teams 100% healthy, 49ers likely more talented/better and likely beat us. That's a game though I wish we'd have seen played out last night. I think you missed part two of my point. If we had all 22 of our starters, and you removed ANY 4-5 49ers starters, I'm suggesting we'd win hands-down.
quote:
When you have the success GB's had for so many years (let's remember TT/MM is 74-38 w/l) we have to remember that success also translates to GB having consistently drafting at or near the bottom of the draft year in and year out.
That's really no excuse when you boast the best QB in the game and a top three pass rusher. Once you already have those two pieces there should be talent a plenty to build around them even at the lower end of the first.

I think the bigger impact than where a team drafts in a given year is the draft class itself. Sometimes it's not a good year for what you need (Hawk year). Sometimes the stars line up in every round and it's the greatest boost a team can get (Raji Mattews).
In some ways this game was lost in week 17. Because of injury problems GB needed the bye more than anyone, certainly much more than San Fran did. We were underdogs for good reasons, but let's not pretend that this was an unwinnable Colin Kaepernick is a force of nature situation. I mean the guy got all of his yards without even being touched. That doesn't happen without mental mistakes and/or bad scheme.

There was no reason for McCarthy to have Ross back on punts. He already had the right answer, Cobb on punts, Ross on kickoffs. That muff cost a chance to really take control of the game. I don't know that Harbaugh would've gone in panic mode and abandoned what turned out to be a really good gameplan, but they would've felt some real pressure at that point.

The 2nd half felt like McCarthy was just in panic mode. The punt in the 4th quarter down 2 TDs at midfield was ridiculous. The Cobb shovel pass gave me a horrible flashback to the Tony Fisher offense. The play-action pass attempt that fooled no one since we hadn't been running the ball at all was just bizarre.

Look, it would have been a tough game to win, but to just point at the IR lists and shrug your shoulders does a disservice to how poorly the Packers played and apparently prepared for this game IMO.
I don't buy it

The game was tied midway through the 3Q with all those backups playing for GB and SF playing at full strength.

Yes, the Niners have a very good team. But the Packers were in this one for two thirds of the game and had they played better they very well could have won. It's not like it was 41-0 (sorry Vikes v Giants)

People need to quit overreacting already. They won the damn title 2 years ago. This isnt like Madden 2013 where you can fix the results. Teams like SF are paid to compete as well.
Yes, they were undermanned all season and yes they were last night. But that's no excuse. The game was well within our grasp into the 3rd quarter and I would argue we should've been up by at least a score and that's saying a lot considering how bad we played. The problem is an aging relic of a defensive coordinator who does not adjust to his players capabilities and/or opponents strategy. Keep it simple, spy CK and quit the idiotic man coverage on a running QB.

I wouldn't put the blame on Capers if this wasnt a re-occurring issue. His defenses have been lit up in epic fashion the past 3-4 years. This defense relies on ball-hawking DB's and that's it. When our DB's get turnovers in bunches, we win (see 2010).... When we don't and we are playing from behind, we are basically gimped and have no answer. Our defense is like a leaking valve, once it opens, it's impossible to stop.

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