None of us on this board expected the Bucks to be this good this year. I think we all expected that moving on from Jason Kidd would get us a few more wins (I thought maybe 50 wins would be in the cards), but a 60 win pace was beyond any of our expectations. 

Now that the Bucks are going to enter the playoffs as either the 1st or 2nd seed, what would be considered a successful season? It will obviously influence who they decide to bring back. Here's how I see it, but I'd be interested to see what others think. Here's the 5 options (all assuming the team is in relatively good health in the playoffs). 

1. (5% Chance) First round playoff loss.

A first round exit would be an unmitigated disaster. Winning 60 and then losing to a team like the Heat, Pistons, Hornets, or Magic would basically negate their whole regular season. I'd say this is highly, highly unlikely (less than 5% chance). 

2. (30% Chance) Second Round playoff loss.

A second round playoff series loss to the Sixers or Celtics would be a huge disappointment, but I would say they could still call the season a success. It would mean winning a playoff series for the first time since 2001 and for the second time since 1989. Both the Sixers and the Celtics have the talent to beat anyone in a 7 game series. Losing to a depleted Pacers team in this round would be a much bigger blow. 

3. (40% Chance). Conference Finals Loss

A loss to the Raptors (or whichever of the Celtics, Pacers, or Sixers may beat the Raptors) would be a disappointment, but a Conference Finals appearance for the second time in 33 years would still be a very, very successful season. 

4. (20% Chance) NBA Finals Loss.  This would be a  wildly successful result for this year, especially if it meant a loss to the Warriors. A loss to anyone else would be a little more disappointing, but still a wildly successful season. 

5. (5% Chance). NBA Champions. Go ahead and put Giannis' number in the rafters right now and name a street after Bud. 

Original Post
PackerHawk posted:

Anything short of the EC Finals would be a failure. 

I disagree somewhat- if nothing else winning a playoff series is at least a step and it's not like a loss to the Celtics or Sixers would be to a team that didn't have multiple all-star level players. 

Losing in the first round would be a massive failure. 

Before I even opened this thread.....first thing that comes to mind is ECF or season is a failure. 

If they lose in 7 in the ECF. You shrug your shoulders & go get em next year. 

We all know they should've beaten the Celtics last year in game 1. Had they won that game, they win the series & who knows where they end up.

That experience from last year should really help this year....and now the Bucks have the X factor in coach Bud. 

I agree on ECF. If they get there everything else is gravy. Post season basketball is a very different animal, and it’s tough to know what a team full of unproven postseason players will do. They’re not one and done- not with the MVP. The second round will be more of a challenge, but again... they should win. 

Its going to be Toronto, and they’re going to be tough. Home court is huge. 

Music City posted:

I agree on ECF. If they get there everything else is gravy. Post season basketball is a very different animal, and it’s tough to know what a team full of unproven postseason players will do. They’re not one and done- not with the MVP. The second round will be more of a challenge, but again... they should win. 

Its going to be Toronto, and they’re going to be tough. Home court is huge. 

The second round is very likely to be Sixers, Celtics, Raptors, and Bucks.  It wouldn't be a shock if any of those 4 teams come out of the East. Home court may be the difference in any matchup between any of these teams.

Considering I put down $20 for the Bucks to win NBA Championship, anything other than to me would be a failure. 

Okay, realistically you'd like to have them at least get to the Conference finals at this point.  I'll be relieved when they can just win that first playoff series (assuming they do) as even that is something they haven't done in a long long time.   That said, with all they've accomplished this year, anything less than the conference finals would be at least a modest disappointment.

The East is no joke this year 

In fact, other than Golden State I’m not sure any other western conference team would beat the top 5 teams in the east in a 7 game series.  OKC maybe depending on what team they draw

It boils down to matchups.  Obviously if the Bucks lose in round 1 it’s a major letdown.  But if they draw Boston in round 2?  I wouldn’t assume they automatically advance.  The Celtics are pesky and talented and if motivated and focused can beat anyone in the playoffs. 

Still, I think it’s conference finals or bust. 

 

I think the Bucks have the best coach in the East. Bud won 60 games and went to the ECF with a Hawks team whose 5 best players were Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Caroll, Jeff Teague, and Al Horford. Dennis Schroeder and Kent Bazemore were the other 2 rotation players.

Millsap and Horford were multi-time all-stars and are good players (especially Horford), but do either of them really seem like guys you'd build a team around?  Millsap made the All-Star team all 4 years with Bud in Atlanta and made 0 All-Star teams in his other 9 years in the league. He averaged 17-9-2 in those 4 years. Does Paul Millsap really stick in your mind as a guy who was that good? He's probably not even as good as Middleton. 

Before they actively tanked in his final year at Atlanta, they got to the playoffs his first 4 years and got to one ECFs. 

For the first time probably since George Karl, we'll go into a playoff series with the better coach (at least against everyone except maybe (and only maybe) Boston.  

Add Reply

Likes (0)
Post
×
×
×
×