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Interesting Article

Check out the comments section below the article. Person makes some solid points. I was trying to keep this hidden by not saying anything but it's all on tape now for the rest of the league to copycat.

I am not sure anyone saw what really happened this year.

Two teams figured out a strategy and economic hole in the NFL. The Packers and the Steelers.

Everyone calls their defense a 3-4. It is not. If you are paying any attention, they both play a 2-4-5.

First the strategic advantage. There must be five lineman on offense ineligible for a pass. Add a sixth in the QB and you can only have five potential offensive receivers. By playing a 2-4-5 that gives you nine potential players to allocate to the five potential offensive receivers. That frees you up to allocate four other fast defensive players to blitz and support the run. An offense can't run a hurry up as well. That is because the defense does not need to change personnel fast on second and third down with nickel and dime coverages. Finally the amount of QB reads is infinite.

Second the economic hole. The laws of supply and demand for big and athletic defensive lineman ensures they are the highest paid players in the game. By employing the 2-4-5 you only need two down lineman and with the second and third levels with so much help you only need guys who can run and hit hard. The laws of supply and demand are reversed. There is an abundance of players that can do it.

Why in the hell do you think the Packers could overcome so many injuries? How could they win the game without Woodson. Because it is not the players and the coaches as much as it is the system.

The NFL has always periodically seen new cutting edge strategies come along every once and a while. In this copycat league, after the labor dispute, look for teams to either copy the Packers and Steelers, build their offensive lines to go back to a running attack or for the NFL to change the rules (most unlikely).

But to call this Superbowl and the Packers a dynasty misses the entire point of strategic and economic arbitrage.

This kind of outthinking opponents is the only way to consistently win.

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One of the reasons that teams went to the 3-4 in the first place was economic

DL's make more than LBs so there was already a monetary incentive there

TT said there are only so many large body DL on the planet and because of their scarcity, its easier to find more LBs and less DL, so we have already seen this happening in some respects

Teams can run the ball on that alignment, but they often fall behind a passing team and the run game goes out the window
Disagree with a number of items.

Most teams are playing more nickel these days, not just the Packers and Steelers. Been this way for a while. Makes sense as more offenses are playing 3-WR sets or have athletic pass-catching tight ends. Yes the Packers played a large number of snaps out of the 2-4-5, but I'm guessing the Bears played a fair share of 4-2-5 as well even though they're a "4-3" team.

If the Packers played more nickel than most teams (which wouldn't surprise me) it's largely because they have 3 extremely capable corners, a claim most teams can't make. On top of that, they have a corner who also doubles as a safety/linebacker as well as anyone in the league in Woodson. This allows them to not get run off the field when in nickel. Having an offense that piles up points also helps to discourage the opposing team from running.

I agree to a point on the economic incentives. It likely is easier to find a pass rushing outside linebacker than it is to find a do-it-all defensive end that can play in the 4-3. But a major reason the Packers were able to overcome to many injuries is because they have to many good players still on their rookie contract. They're getting extremely good value out of guys like Matthews, Raji, and Shields.
Yeah although I agree with the comment about 3-4 defense being cheaper it comes down to the need for 3 good corners.

Its what crippled the packers last year when facing good passing teams.

the SB was a perfect example of this.

Rodgers exploited the steelers secondary because they didn't have the corners to match up.

thats why I hope TT goes CB early in the draft.
quote:
Check out the comments section below the article. Person makes some solid points. I was trying to keep this hidden by not saying anything but it's all on tape now for the rest of the league to copycat.

No offense Boris, but I find it hard to believe that some internet commenter in Chicago would see something the rest of the league is overlooking, unless that something was wildly off the mark. No need to keep this hidden. Wink
quote:
Originally posted by Phoenix138:
*offer not valid for the past 30 years.




Nicely played.

Fedya, The biggest change as I stated earlier was Tramon being vastly improved, Woodson being Woodson and Sam Shields instead of Bush playing nickel.

I believe that is the biggest key to the change in defense this season vs. 2009, however, we know the other guys get paid too but I don't see any sense in helping them out.
My two favorite lines from the article:

quote:
That was the key matchup, but the fear is that the raw data of Green Bay’s 41-11 pass-run ratio will become Martz’s aerial crack pipe.


quote:
Second, the Packers have actual receivers who, despite surprising drops Sunday, still run actual routes, a concept that troubles Bears receivers beyond the idea of doing a down-and-out at the trash can.


I was wondering why GB used the two man front so much.Thanks for the info.I thought it was due to the injuries but when Jenkins came back it was still used alot. Capers is a trendsetter and I hope he stays around for the length of MM's tenure.

They did use the 4 man front against the run on first down a few times in the Super Bowl and part of the reason it was successfull is Woodson ,Williams and Shields.

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