Why they won, why they won in spite of

@grignon posted:

Yeah. If there's ever been a break the bank for him FA, Bakh is it. There are no holes in his game.

The Packers have 4 (or maybe 5) major decisions on whether to resign their own free agents. 

Bahktiari is a must-sign. Taylor Lewan got 18 million a year from the Titans. Bakh is better. You are probably looking at 20 million a year if the cap doesn't go down due to lost revenues. 

Linsley is also a free agent. He already has the 4th highest cap hit among centers at 10 million a year. Realistically, he'll probably get 10-12 million. 

Kevin King and Jamaal Williams are also up. King could command 8-10 million a year. Williams is more of a 3-4 million a year guy. 

Then, of course, there is Aaron Jones. What the Packers do with him is going to be the most interesting decision of their upcoming off-season. Bakh is an obvious must-sign. Linsley, King, and Williams are all nice guys to have, but if they price themselves out of Green Bay, I think you can move on.  Jones looks like a must-sign in terms of his impact, but top RBs contracts are always the hardest to negotiate because you know they usually break down in their second contract. The fact that MM didn't seem to like to give Jones touches his first two years actually helps him in that regard. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/fr...s/green-bay-packers/

@YATittle posted:

Vikings will be in the cellar this year,

I hope not.  Why do I say that? I want them to  be about 7-9 or 8-8 which will put them in the middle of the draft.   That way they don't get top ten talent and they would have to spend a lot of draft picks to move up.  

I agree on Bak.  Elite LTs don't grow on trees and when you get one you have to pay them.

Word  I heard is the team and Bak are 4 million apart on a new deal....per year.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

 

Sternberger is a 2019 third-round pick. Third-round TE picks are supposed to make contributions quickly. He's played 8 games and has no catches. He's been targeted 4 times in his career and dropped 3 of them. It's time for him to produce. 

Are you just looking at the regular season?  Last year in the playoff game vs Seattle he was targeted once and caught the ball - granted, for minimal yardage.  In the NFCCG vs SF he was targeted 2 times and caught both - one for a 8 yard TD.  It was those two games that probably indicated to MLF he was ready for more work.  

I would sign King and Bahk.  

RB is going to be tough.   Jones deserves to get paid, but I don't want to be the team hamstrung with a huge RB deal that lasts for 6 years.    Maybe franchise him and trade him?   

I like Linsey, but I wouldn't give him a 3rd deal.   I'm guessing we could get similar, not as good, production for 1/2 the cost.   Use that money elsewhere. 

@Ghost of Lambeau posted:

Are you just looking at the regular season?  Last year in the playoff game vs Seattle he was targeted once and caught the ball - granted, for minimal yardage.  In the NFCCG vs SF he was targeted 2 times and caught both - one for a 8 yard TD.  It was those two games that probably indicated to MLF he was ready for more work.  

I haven't seen anything that indicates Sternberger should be getting any playing time

Yeah, Turdburger is at the bottom of the pecking order.    Tonyan is the best receiving TE, Lewis is the best blocking TE,  the Rook seems to have a decent all around game and Jace isn't bringing anything to the table at this point. 

@Ghost of Lambeau posted:

Are you just looking at the regular season?  Last year in the playoff game vs Seattle he was targeted once and caught the ball - granted, for minimal yardage.  In the NFCCG vs SF he was targeted 2 times and caught both - one for a 8 yard TD.  It was those two games that probably indicated to MLF he was ready for more work.  

I was just looking at the regular season. 

The TD in the playoffs was when they were down 34-13 with 7 minutes left in the game. It's a positive but didn't remotely make a difference. 

There's a reason they drafted him in the third round, but he has to be better. Teams are going to try to take away Adams and at least will be threatened deep by MVS and can't leave a LB on Jones in coverage. There are going to be a lot of opportunities for TEs in the middle of the field. Sternberger needs to take advantage. 

@michiganjoe posted:

Word  I heard is the team and Bak are 4 million apart on a new deal....per year.

So, a good guess is they offered the money Lewan got (18 million) and Bakh wants 22.  20 million a year (maybe 5 years for 100 million with 40-50 million guaranteed) is where they'll end up. If you don't come to terms, you franchise tag him without a second thought. The franchise tag will probably be 16-17 million. 

@michiganjoe posted:

Word  I heard is the team and Bak are 4 million apart on a new deal....per year.

If they let Bahktiari get to FA they will lose him. He is foundational for any team and plenty have more money available than the Packers. (however, not the Vikings )

That means they will lose other key players. Such is the nature of salary capped sports. It's there to equalize the talent level on teams.

That's why drafting Dillon was the correct move. A Jones will get paid- by someone else, K King as well.

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

So, a good guess is they offered the money Lewan got (18 million) and Bakh wants 22.  

He apparently wants to be the highest paid LT and Tunsil is at 22 so that's probably a pretty good guess.

And he deserves no less. Sign the boy to the highest OT contract in the league and let’s move on.

Absolutely need to sign Bakhtiari, and I expect they will.

They can probably keep J.Williams for less than Jones, and then they have Dillon, Ervin, and D.Williams. Still a solid group of they decide not to keep Jones.

Sullivan could replace King and then it's a draft pick or Hollman/Jackson improve.

Keep Patrick over Linsley if the price ain't right. 

Watch out for the Bears, NBC guys were saying he's making smarter decisions this year... They could be a playoff team.

This is from Pro Football Focus (see links below). It makes the first two weeks even more impressive. 

They've got virtually nothing yesterday from this year's draft class (some garbage time runs from Dillon and a play from Garvin yesterday in garbage time as well). The first week it was a couple of end-of-game runs from Dillon and DeGuera had a few snaps. Maybe that's the case with most teams given no preseason games, but it's showing they have improved dramatically from within, which is usually a mark of good coaching. 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2...-42-detroit-lions-21

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2...minnesota-vikings-34

Lions Game.  Only three Packers rookies saw action today — second-round running back A.J. Dillon, seventh-round edge defender Jonathan Garvin and undrafted linebacker Krys Barnes. Garvin saw just two snaps while Barnes had 14 and looked decent in his limited playing time.

Vikings Game. There was really only one notable rookie performance for the Green Bay Packers, and it was a bit of a surprising one. UDFA linebacker Krys Barnes played just 16 snaps on the day (eight run-defense and eight in coverage), but he managed to produce three total defensive stops with a tackle for loss against the run.

@YATittle posted:

Watch out for the Bears, NBC guys were saying he's making smarter decisions this year... They could be a playoff team.

Trubisky probably really benefits from having no crowd in terms of his confidence. He's a guy that doesn't take getting booed well. 

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

This is from Pro Football Focus (see links below). It makes the first two weeks even more impressive. 

They've got virtually nothing yesterday from this year's draft class (some garbage time runs from Dillon and a play from Garvin yesterday in garbage time as well). The first week it was a couple of end-of-game runs from Dillon and DeGuera had a few snaps. Maybe that's the case with most teams given no preseason games, but it's showing they have improved dramatically from within, which is usually a mark of good coaching. 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2...-42-detroit-lions-21

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2...minnesota-vikings-34

Lions Game.  Only three Packers rookies saw action today — second-round running back A.J. Dillon, seventh-round edge defender Jonathan Garvin and undrafted linebacker Krys Barnes. Garvin saw just two snaps while Barnes had 14 and looked decent in his limited playing time.

Vikings Game. There was really only one notable rookie performance for the Green Bay Packers, and it was a bit of a surprising one. UDFA linebacker Krys Barnes played just 16 snaps on the day (eight run-defense and eight in coverage), but he managed to produce three total defensive stops with a tackle for loss against the run.

Yeah, I don't think Barnes had any splash plays yesterday but he looks to be handling his assignments well. Crazy that the other two who were drafted can't beat him out...

@MichiganPacker2 posted:

This is from Pro Football Focus (see links below). It makes the first two weeks even more impressive. 

They've got virtually nothing yesterday from this year's draft class (some garbage time runs from Dillon and a play from Garvin yesterday in garbage time as well). The first week it was a couple of end-of-game runs from Dillon and DeGuera had a few snaps. Maybe that's the case with most teams given no preseason games, but it's showing they have improved dramatically from within, which is usually a mark of good coaching. 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2...-42-detroit-lions-21

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2...minnesota-vikings-34

Lions Game.  Only three Packers rookies saw action today — second-round running back A.J. Dillon, seventh-round edge defender Jonathan Garvin and undrafted linebacker Krys Barnes. Garvin saw just two snaps while Barnes had 14 and looked decent in his limited playing time.

Vikings Game. There was really only one notable rookie performance for the Green Bay Packers, and it was a bit of a surprising one. UDFA linebacker Krys Barnes played just 16 snaps on the day (eight run-defense and eight in coverage), but he managed to produce three total defensive stops with a tackle for loss against the run.

Hmmm! It was as if rookies really are best utilized for the future so they can develop.

Aaron Jones might be the best value RB in the NFL. Kamara contract did GB no favors. There’s nothing Jones can’t do. McCaffrey is incredible but he has almost twice the tread miles Jones has since 2017. Jones has a ton of game left. Must find a way to pay him. 

Gary looks like he did a lot of work on Gary this off-season. 

Jenkins is going to cost some $$$. He’s really good.

Sternberger is maddening. He gets himself open on a regular basis. He just can’t catch. Which is really the most important part or getting open. 

@The Heckler posted:

I am honestly stoked for how well the offense has started out.  One of the best things is that this time last year the buffoons in the media was wetting their pants with headlines about how Rodgers and MLF can't get along, AR won't do what he is told, blah blah.   It is awesome to see a truly balanced offense which I think is something you have to do.

The other positive thing to me is that they are 2-0 in the NFCN, have a 2 game lead on the Spermheads, and 2-0 in the NFC.

Have no fear, Florio is still wetting his pants. Jones puts up over 200 total yards, and the burning question to ask him is whether Rodgers is salty about Jordan Love. The yappers are gonna yap. It's up to this squad to simply get better every week. And hopefully at some point in December they can kick into high gear because they understand that getting blasted by SF isn't on their wish list any longer.

Artis,  oh yes good old dbag Florio.  He has always been a tool but he has taken it up a notch recently.  Oh and he is a Spermhead fan (I think) so he is going to try and write things like that.

I of course don't know what is going on in the Packers locker room but I would bet really good money they are on a mission to return the favor to SF.  That is if SF has a team left to put on the field that is capable of being a playoff team.

@artis posted:

Have no fear, Florio is still wetting his pants. Jones puts up over 200 total yards, and the burning question to ask him is whether Rodgers is salty about Jordan Love. The yappers are gonna yap. It's up to this squad to simply get better every week. And hopefully at some point in December they can kick into high gear because they understand that getting blasted by SF isn't on their wish list any longer.

Bold prediction right here right now.

We win this year's Thursday night showdown in San Fran.

Seahawks passed us up.

https://projects.fivethirtyeig...ions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Re-watching the game, did anyone else notice that the Packer “G” in the middle of the field looked round instead of oblong like it’s supposed to look???   I just saw it and it looks off to me..... more round then it’s supposed to.  Anyone else notice that??

I've been tough on Gutekunst's 2018 'after Alexander' draft picks...that group had one of their better games-Scott had a nice punt to setup the defensive TD, Scantling drops balls, but he came back from that wicked hit and made a nice catch.Speed helps-he is open a lot. And Josh Jackson made a play! hooray

 Quintez Cephus  dropped to draft pick 166, most likely due to his off field issues. He is going to be a player and in a more 'here and now'  Packer focused 2020 draft, he would be making plays with the Packers.

@YATittle posted:

Bold prediction right here right now.

We win this year's Thursday night showdown in San Fran.

In a regular season matchup, I'd be perfectly ok with competing even if they ended up with an L. It's December and January that will be the real thing. The '07 NYG took the undefeated Pats to the wire in the regular season, and it was that game that proved they could compete and they got it done in the biggest game. 

SF is a nemesis again, but the conference will have a number of teams to deal with. The Saints are a great litmus test, but we know Seattle will be there as well as SF and any number of teams that will jump up and present problems. Love or hate MM, but he was pretty effective at rounding out his teams so they were playing their best ball late in the year. Hopefully, MLF understands that concept that weekly improvement is the goal. At this point, with a pretty solid group of vets in the locker room, the staff and roster should know there's a long road to travel before Dec/Jan. Each week, win or lose, needs to be a building block to become the team they want to field in crunchtime.

@Goldie posted:

Re-watching the game, did anyone else notice that the Packer “G” in the middle of the field looked round instead of oblong like it’s supposed to look???   I just saw it and it looks off to me..... more round then it’s supposed to.  Anyone else notice that??

It came down with COVID. Lucky to be alive.

Jones is going to a tough decision.  He really only has 1 year of starting so he's not like these other RBs to cash in after their rookie deals only to be busts (ie: Gurley, Freeman, Johnson, Bell, etc).  History also shows us that paying RBs big money is rarely a good idea.  Based on 2019 and how things are going for 2020, he's in line for $15m+ if he makes it through this year healthy.  That's just not smart in today's NFL. 

I'd like to see Gute offer him $10m a year right now maybe over 4 years ($25m guaranteed).  RBs get hurt and he's one misstep away from losing his pay day so should consider it.  While most positions can wait 14 games to cash in, RB is not that position.  $10m is workable, especially if he's sharing the load with Dillon for 2-3 more years.  Could be an incredible backfield.  

@mrtundra posted:

Sternburger does need to fix his drops problem. Tonyan is the better TE, right now!

Deguara probably is too. 

@PackerHawk posted:

Deguara probably is too. 

I’m not impressed with any of them to be quite honest

@CUPackFan posted:

Jones is going to a tough decision.  He really only has 1 year of starting so he's not like these other RBs to cash in after their rookie deals only to be busts (ie: Gurley, Freeman, Johnson, Bell, etc).  History also shows us that paying RBs big money is rarely a good idea.  Based on 2019 and how things are going for 2020, he's in line for $15m+ if he makes it through this year healthy.  That's just not smart in today's NFL. 

I'd like to see Gute offer him $10m a year right now maybe over 4 years ($25m guaranteed).  RBs get hurt and he's one misstep away from losing his pay day so should consider it.  While most positions can wait 14 games to cash in, RB is not that position.  $10m is workable, especially if he's sharing the load with Dillon for 2-3 more years.  Could be an incredible backfield.  

 

I agree on paying big dough for RBs.  That said, Jones is a different kind of RB.  It's not just the utility of catching passes out of the backfield but that he can be a legit threat at WR.  Considering he's sharing the RB load with Williams and Dillon I don't think he's going to get the same miles at RB.  The other consideration is this really is the perfect offense for RBs and particularly a guy like Jones.  He's basically playing two roles, which gives him more value.

@YooperPackfan posted:

I’m not impressed with any of them to be quite honest

I doubt anyone is surprised by this to be quite honest. 

 says that there would be some incentive for Jones to re-sign with Green Bay at (likely) less than market value. 
Reality says his agent will be looking for max $$$ as this may be his only/best opportunity to 'cash in' for a huge payday.

Given his age, history, and performance, I hope the Pack finds a way to re-sign him. Even a 2 or 3 year deal; 4 years or more is OK if it can be front-loaded enough to fit under the salary cap.

@ChilliJon posted:

 

Sternberger is maddening. He gets himself open on a regular basis. He just can’t catch. Which is really the most important part or getting open. 

 

Be patient with the kid. He actually has good hands. Needs to be a little consistent with his technique and his confidence levels will follow.

I still think Jace's biggest problem is strength. He's still getting pushed around out there. Don't know what he did all offseason but he didn't put in enough work to get to the NFL level for strength of a TE. 

Listening to Lemps talking Pack podcast this morning....he gave us a stat.

The Packers had not led the Lions in a game since 3-0 December 2017. A game which the Pack quit & lost 35-11.

Until......

Bob Tonyan caught that TD pass from Rodgers.

All soft 

Ha! That's funny you say that because Peter Bukowski had Bennie Blades from the Lions on his podcast & they talked about how he & Leroy Butler would have a tough time playing the game now. Can't hit anybody & that's all those guys did.

I've always said, Ronnie Lott would be thrown outta the league today because he'd be suspended every weekend

Butler wasn’t known for crushing hits, though. Versatility, sound tackling... but he wasn’t a head hunter.