You like Big Boards and you cannot lie. 
@titmfatied posted:
That's cool. I noticed the Niners over drafted Pearsall and Renardo Green isn't even in the top 100.
Let's see if the Niners are right to draft those guys early.
@Herschel posted:It isn't a "better" or "worse" dichotomy. We've seen a myriad of Gutekunst's mistakes and good calls.
What's very interesting is looking at how closely teams have "followed" the consensus board when they pick. This is data prior to the 2024 draft.
Let's look at Jordan Morgan. It's easy to see why Gutekunst would like him over Graham Barton, for example, while also thinking Barton is a better candidate as a rookie starter but with less tackle upside even though he's a bit higher on consensus boards. The difference isn't enough of an outlier to skew chart position as Morgan was around 35 and Barton around 25.
Hopper, meanwhile was around 175.
Teams that deviated the most seem to have way better records than teams who have closely followed the consensus board. Perhaps, if teams deviated from the big board they would win more games? Even a Super Bowl or 2?🤷♀️
Please be careful how you use statistics. 5 years is a really small sample size. This is a meaningless statistic.
@Goalline posted:Teams that deviated the most seem to have way better records than teams who have closely followed the consensus board.
Except for the Chiefs but they have Mahomes so that covers up a lot of problems.
@Goalline posted:5 years is a really small sample size.
It is & I caught that right away too...but you gotta start somewhere 🤷♂️.
I would like to see this stat from the year 2000
@Boris posted:It is & I caught that right away too...but you gotta start somewhere
No, you don’t. Lots of statistical mistakes and incorrect inferences are made because people decided to “start somewhere “.
Start somewhere by tossing a coin twice, get two heads and draw the conclusion that no matter how much you throw a coin you will always get heards.
It seems self evident that teams that align with the average opinion will end up average.
@Goalline posted:Teams that deviated the most seem to have way better records than teams who have closely followed the consensus board. Perhaps, if teams deviated from the big board they would win more games? Even a Super Bowl or 2?🤷♀️
Please be careful how you use statistics. 5 years is a really small sample size. This is a meaningless statistic.
Not only KC, but Baltimore, Buffalo, the Steelers and even the Eagles deviate less. That's a pretty good list of consistency. San Fran has come from the opposite side and done well, of course, and Dallas got skewed "up" due to an extreme outlier. (It was a DT a few years ago, IIRC)
Five years is a good sample size when you think how long NFL staffs are often in charge. For example, it includes all but Gutekunst's first draft in 2018.
Looking at his drafts is interesting. Where he's struggled most is when he's deviated most from the consensus board, except where "everyone" was wrong on Jackson and Rodgers.
Player - Actual - Consensus - variance
2018:
Jaire Alexander - 18 - 22 (+4)
Josh Jackson - 45 - 16 (-19) (Alex Hornibrook fooled a lot of people)
Oren Burks - 88 - 125 (+37)
J'Mon Moore - 133 - 180 (+47)
2019:
Rashan Gary - 12 - 17 (+5)
Darnell Savage - 21 - 48 (+27)
Elgton Jenkins - 44 - 59 (+15)
2020:
Jordan Love - 26 - 24 (-2)
AJ Dillon - 62 - 115 (+53)
Josiah Deguara - 94 - 176 (+82)
2021:
Eric Stokes - 29 - 56 (+27)
Josh Myers - 62 - 93 (+31)
Amari Rodgers - 85 - 79 (-6) (Lots of misses on Rodgers from the Clemson offense)
Royce Newman - 142 - 239 (+197)
2022:
Quay Walker - 22 - 49 (+27)
Devonte Wyatt - 28 - 24 (-4)
Christian Watson - 34 - 41 (+7)
Sean Rhyan - 92 - 87 (-5)
Romeo Doubs - 132 - 121 (-9)
Zach Tom - 140 - 119 (-21)
2023:
Lukas Van Ness - 13 - 15 (+2)
Luke Musgrave - 42 - 50 (+8)
Jayden Reed - 50 - 89 (+39)
Tucker Kraft - 78 - 67 (-9)
Colby Wooden - 116 - 150 (+34) (Karl Brooks was at #115 consensus)
2024:
Jordan Morgan - 25 - 35 (+10)
Edgerrin Cooper - 45 - 46 (-1)
Javon Bullard - 58 - 59 (+1)
Marshawn Lloyd - 88 - 88 (even)
Tyron Harper - 91 - 172 (+81)
Evan Williams - 111- 223 (+112)
5 years is a good excuse if the consensus board is only 5 years old. If it is older than that 5 years is cherry picking. Very poor sampling.
24 year sample size and the consensus board has you at #5 JF
5 is a good excuse if the consensus board is only 5 years old. It is older than that cherry picking. Very poor sampling.
Goalline
Joined:
Points: 162,791
Member Rank: #5
I agree with you. Shouldn’t there be a few affirmative action points for a brother? I just haven’t been the same since Henry “left”.
The consensus board says you could post 386 times per day for the next 62 years and you may pass Hen
@Iowacheese posted:24 year sample size and the consensus board has you at #5 JF
5 is a good excuse if the consensus board is only 5 years old. It is older than that cherry picking. Very poor sampling.
Goalline
Joined:Points: 162,791Member Rank: #5
So you're saying Goalline is a dream from heaven?
@Iowacheese posted:The consensus board says you could post 386 times per day for the next 62 years and you may pass Hen
Or thumb up every post you come across and get there in 3
@Iowacheese posted:The consensus board says you could post 386 times per day for the next 62 years and you may pass Hen
So, there’s a chance?🤣🤣🤣
@Fandame posted:If the coaches talked to him several times pre-draft they probably liked him but had reservations as well. I wonder what they talked about ?
I saw this blurb in his draft bio. Might warrant a few questions from GB
"Head coach Eli Drinkwitz said there was a noticeable difference in Hopper's
“personal training and lifestyle habits” during his final season."
And here's coach Drinkwitz
@Satori posted:I saw this blurb in his draft bio. Might warrant a few questions from GB
"Head coach Eli Drinkwitz said there was a noticeable difference in Hopper's
“personal training and lifestyle habits” during his final season."And here's coach Drinkwitz
His name certainly fits his style.
Does that mean he got his act together in his last year and should be good going forward? Or does it mean he got his act together in his last year after being a fvckup in previous years and who knows what next year will bring? If that's the case, I hope Gutey and MLF raked him over the coals before deciding to spend a draft spot on him.
It's been a year since Gutey traded Rasul and a pick that resulted in Green Bay drafting Hopper. Just something to remember as Stokes is toasted on a weekly basis
Trading Rasul and planning on Nixon and Stokes stepping up was a big mistake.
@13X posted:Trading Rasul and planning on Nixon and Stokes stepping up was a big mistake.
Trading Rasul for a THIRD round pick when you were 2-5 and looking like it was going to be a non-playoff year made sense (even though they would never admit they were thinking the playoffs were a stretch at that point)
Trading Preston Smith for a SEVENTH round pick when you are 6-3, your three losses have been to teams with a combined 18-5 record, and you are clearly in the playoff hunt doesn't really make sense. To save 4 million dollars this year?
It's either a salary dump in preparation for next year or a salary dump in preparation to bring on someone at the deadline this year.
He wasn't having a great season, but he has way more value to us this year when we are in the hunt than a 7th rounder does next year.
