Originally Posted by Iowacheese:
I didn't like pregnant Eddie
If you did, you'd have been the only one.
Hopefully Lacy proves to be a difference maker and gets his opportunities throughout the game. MM has talked about committing to the run in the past, yet we always find reason to throw the ball all over the field. When you have 12, mind you, that's not a bad thing. My only complaint is the seemingly endless 3rd and short bombs down the field.
You must have hated Jordy Nelson's touchdown in the superbowl on 3rd and 1. And Nelson's game clincher against TB in 2011. And numerous others. We only hate it when it doesn't work.
No, we hate it when it's used so often that other teams expect it.
I'm just glad it's not the 1970's & 80's any more. Otherwise Lacy would be another in a long line of over-hyped promising RBs that is 4-6 games away from a career ending injury.
Or just flat out sucked.
After Brockington and Lane.
Part of the 3rd and short bombs have to be on Rodgers. Nearly every play called I believe has a run or pass option. With Lacy (from what we've seen and are led to believe), Rodgers should be more confident in taking the run option.
Originally Posted by YATittle:
No, we hate it when it's used so often that other teams expect it.
This.
Third and short bombs are supposed to catch the defence off guard. And, they work well when done on a limited basis and the team has had success running on short yardage 3rd downs. Unfortunately for the Pack they have not recently been all that successfull runing on short yardage 3rd downs. Lacey and improved OL blocking on 3rd and short can rectify that. Once we start getting grinding out 1st down runs, then the occasional bomb will work more often.
I just hope they at least threaten run from 3rd and 3 or less. Seems like 90% of the time they went 4 WR and shotgun on 3rd and 3 the last couple years.
and what was the success rate on 3 and 3 passes?
I have no problem with balance, and hope Lacy becomes a true running threat, but it is not like the offense has been a problem in need of fixing the last few years.
Don't have a problem if the long pass is there on third and short, but AR has made more than a few poor decisions and forced the ball when it clearly wasn't. It's almost as if he's just hoping for the PI call. Hopefully Lacy will give both he and MM more faith in the running game in short yardage situations.
"and what was the success rate on 3 and 3 passes?"
Don't know, but if you could provide a link I would love to look. Either way, I imagine a run "threat" in the situation would only improve the rate.
I'm a little concerned you* felt comfortable complaining about a situation without much of a clue as to the outcomes with the current design.
in 2012, Green Bay was 9thin the league in 3rd down completion percentage at 42.3%. NE was tops at 48.7%. Not sure if NE went 4 wide in 3rd and 3 or not.
Is keeping the ball in AR's hands a good idea on third down? Well, doing so resulted in a first down or touchdown 43.17% of the time (only slightly better than running did, interestingly enough). Peyton was tops at 49.07 percent. Aaron had 22 more opportunities.
Now, this is all simply 3rd down, not necessarily 3rd and short. I will have to look at that when I have more time. I do feel having a stronger running threat obviously makes running on third and short more appealing, similarly not having a guy like Greg Jennings makes passing a little less desirable. I do know there was a lot of angst last year about Mike's play calling on third down, when in fact, the Pack were pretty good at converting third downs all season.
*you being not just you, but there are lots of fans who complain about things because it doesn't "feel" right, not because it doesn't work.
Nice work Bong
The main reason they do it is that its one of the few down and distances where the defense doesn't have two deep safeties. On 3rd and short, teams often bring one safety closer to the box- which leaves Jordy and Jones one-on-one outside
MM and AR will take that match-up every time. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't
But if the defense has an extra player at the LOS, is that really the best time to call a running play ? Most of the time GB is running vs two deep safeties and their success is mixed. Adding another defensive run-stuffer isn't likely to improve their success rate
Now Lacy may change that because even if they hit him, he often spins or pile drives forward for the yards. Really looking forward to lining up and getting yards on the ground at least a few times this year
I know it frustrates fans, but MM and AR aren't stupid. When they see a single high safety, they know the odds are in their favor to pass vs run. And so they do
I fail to see the complaint in this sentence..
"I just hope they at least threaten run from 3rd and 3 or less. Seems like 90% of the time they went 4 WR and shotgun on 3rd and 3 the last couple years."
I stand by this..
"Either way, I imagine a run "threat" in the situation would only improve the rate. "
It's a complaint.
agree that having another weapon on offence is a good thing. Last year, if the odds of success running and passing are the same, why not chose the option that typically nets more yards more often. Perhaps Lacy can change that a little bit and make the run a more viable option.
Eddie Lacy is really good.
I think he had his best game this season vs. the Vikings and he did it without getting much help from the guys up front. He forced 8 missed tackles and gained 62 of his 110 rushing yards after contact.
And what's even better is the production he had in the passing game. He caught all 6 passes that were thrown his way and picked up 54 yards after the catch. He was also great in pass pro, yielding no pressures on 10 pass blocking snaps. I think the main knock on Lacy coming out of the draft was his lack of experience in the passing game but he's clearly capable to excelling in that area as well.
Every time he takes a hand off I sit up in my seat. He's such an exciting runner.
I'll always remember him lowering the boom on that Vike the same as I remember Hendo pancaking Ray Lewis.
Agree, really fun to watch. Once again TT struck gold. Really sad that he's become the Packers version of Adrian Peterson, a horse without a wagon.
PFF has him ranked as their 4th overall RB. He's also 5th in the NFL (among RBs) in yards after contact with 478...that's more than half of his total yards. BEAST. He's also 4th among RBs in the NFL in blocking.
Great pick all the way around.
But don't give him the ball 3 straight times in OT when you have it 1st and goal at the 7.
McCarthy is so damn frustrating with his we do what we do Pittsburgh macho bullsh!t or whatever.
Sad thing to me is that it has a shelf life. Should be a fun 5 years.
He should have put Tolzien in at the 7 yard line to run his QB scramble touchdown play
Originally Posted by Music City:
Sad thing to me is that it has a shelf life. Should be a fun 5 years.
There is definitely now an AR + Eddie Lacy + Jordy Nelson + Clay Matthews Superbowl window that is open. We just need some better luck with the injuries and some more solid defensive play to take advantage of it.
So far he has 806 yards on 197 carries (4.1 avg.) with six touchdowns.
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I stand by my prediction above. A couple big games as we head down the stretch and he's there.
I think you should add Randall Cobb and Sam Shields to that list.
His production trickles down as well.. We have had a healthy Starks almost all year thanks to Eddie carrying the load. When given snaps he has looked just as good IMO.
Gravedigger,
I agree with your "beast" characterization. Lacy reminds me an awful lot of Marshawn Lynch.
Originally Posted by Blair Kiel:
How many truly great running backs needed great O-lines?
Not saying he's great, but if he's exceptional, he'll make his own holes.
He has made his own holes. He's freakin good! A keeper!
For those who wanted Steven Jackson, he comes in at exactly last place (79th out of 79) on this list of RB's by "win probability added":
http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?year=2013&pos=RB&season=all
Lacy is obviously doing a lot better than Jackson.
Originally Posted by FreeSafety:
Originally Posted by Music City:
Sad thing to me is that it has a shelf life. Should be a fun 5 years.
There is definitely now an AR + Eddie Lacy + Jordy Nelson + Clay Matthews Superbowl window that is open. We just need some better luck with the injuries and some more solid defensive play to take advantage of it.
Add Cobb in there and you've nailed it.
Wonder if they cut the # of carries for Lacy this week with the short rest. He's on pace for over 300 in his rookie season. And that's after missing essentially two games. 
Was watching some highlights from the Redskin game earlier this year and it hit me how easy it is to forget how good Cobb is and how badly he's missed. Not just from a productivity standpoint but what a defense has to commit to account for him.
The "how the eff do you stop that" factor if Cobb and Finley are healthy with what Lacy has become is off the charts in week 12 if Rodgers, Bulaga and Barclay are healthy.
Ted Thompson is an effing genius.
Too bad he's not a witch doctor too! (is witch doctor politically correct?)
Thompson is excellent at finding productive starters and assembling a talented top couple of layers of talent for a team that few GMs can.
His weakness however, is finding street free agents and fourth-string practice squad players that are somehow going to magically turn into Ed Reed and Joe Montana the moment they put on Green and Gold.