Biggest Off-Season Decision

What's the risk in franchising him? There will be several teams interested in his services. Allow Flynn to negotiate a long-term deal with one of them and then come to terms on compensation in a trade.

I have to believe TT has already had discussions with the likes of Miami and Seattle already.

Matt Flynn to Miami makes a lot of sense.

There's absolutely no risk involved in franchising Flynn because TT won't do it unless a deal's already been worked out. No way does he take a chance on paying that kind of money for a backup QB.

quote:

There's absolutely no risk involved in franchising Flynn

You're looking at what is seen versus what it unseen. If they franchise Flynn, they can't franchise anybody else who might need it (Finley or Wells are possible choices)

If Flynn is going to work out a long term deal with another team ahead of time why wouldn't they both just wait until he is a FA? If they can come to an agreement, why should they both lose money by cutting the Packers in on the deal?

Flynn: "I want a 5 year deal for $5M per year"

Other team: "We can do that. But if you tell TT we have a deal, he is going to franchise you and it is gonna cost us some draft picks. If you don't tell TT and get yourself into FA we will give you 5 years at $6M per year and we get to keep a couple of high round draft choices to help build a better team around you."

Flynn: "Hmmm, more money and a better team around me or less money and going to a team crippled by the loss of important draft picks? What should I do?"

quote:

If Flynn is going to work out a long term deal with another team ahead of time why wouldn't they both just wait until he is a FA?

If I understand correctly, he can't talk with other teams without the Packers' permission until he's a free agent.

So if a team wants him, they can hope the Packers tag him and give him the chance to talk to that team, or wait for free agency and hope that nobody else can snag him earlier in free agency.

If TT is not going to tag him until a deal is done, then teams will need the opportunity to make their offers to Flynn before he is tagged, which is when my sample conversation above would take place.

until Flynn is a free agent, he's no part of any conversation. There would have to be a deal worked out with Team A and the Pack, so Ted could franchise Flynn, trade him, and the deal could be worked out with Team A. At that point Flynn could negotiate either a 1 year or multi year deal.

Team A has to really want Flynn more than a potential draft pick and feel having Flynn go to free agency is to risky.

All the above conditions is why I don't think Flynn will be tagged, and if Ted can work something out, the return won't be as high as Packer fans think the whole process will pay out. If Ted is asking to much, Team A can say "screw it," we'll take our chances. Team A really needs to covet Flynn and think they won't get him in free agency for this move to work.

It's a given that GB would grant Flynn permission to talk contract with other teams. No team is trading for a tagged Flynn w/o having a long term deal worked out.

I'd agree that GB tagging Flynn would have to mean that a tag & trade has already been arranged. Without a deal in place, tagging Flynn would be nuts.

IMO, the biggest offseason decision is Scott Wells. He is 31 (at 31 Jenkins was maybe considered too old), off of his first Pro Bowl and is the anchor of a line with not a lot of depth. He may get a big offer. Does TT overpay?

quote:

Originally posted by FreeSafety:
If TT is not going to tag him until a deal is done, then teams will need the opportunity to make their offers to Flynn before he is tagged, which is when my sample conversation above would take place.

But Free, what if there is a team B tells Flynn, "Well give you $6.5 Million to sign with us." And if there are also teams C & D it could get worse. That is why team A will make a deal to assure they get Flynn. JMHO.

quote:

Originally posted by El-Ka-Bong:
until Flynn is a free agent, he's no part of any conversation. There would have to be a deal worked out with Team A and the Pack, so Ted could franchise Flynn, trade him, and the deal could be worked out with Team A. At that point Flynn could negotiate either a 1 year or multi year deal.

If Flynn is tagged and traded without any say in the deal he would be under contract with the new team at the terms of the franchise price right? One year for the average of the top 5 QBs, $14M or something like that. He could refuse to renegotiate and force the new team to pay him that number or cut him at which point he would be a FA.

quote:

Originally posted by ammo:

quote:

Originally posted by FreeSafety:
If TT is not going to tag him until a deal is done, then teams will need the opportunity to make their offers to Flynn before he is tagged, which is when my sample conversation above would take place.

But Free, what if there is a team B tells Flynn, "Well give you $6.5 Million to sign with us." And if there are also teams C & D it could get worse. That is why team A will make a deal to assure they get Flynn. JMHO.

Flynn would be a fool to not listen to all available offers. He doesn't have to agree to anything lower than the average salary of the top 5 NFL QBs or the best offer he could get in FA.

A team would have to knock his socks off with an offer for him to agree to be tagged and then renegotiate a deal without hearing any other offers.

quote:

Originally posted by FreeSafety:


If Flynn is tagged and traded without any say in the deal he would be under contract with the new team at the terms of the franchise price right? One year for the average of the top 5 QBs, $14M or something like that. He could refuse to renegotiate and force the new team to pay him that number or cut him at which point he would be a FA.

He could still refuse to sign the tag and hold out. It would be his only leverage for a long term deal. That, and no team would trade for him unless they were open to extending the contract beyond year one. Still, it would certainly cost Flynn more than if he made the open market.

Like I said, I think any team that really wants Flynn will save the picks and hope to impress him with a free agent contract.

I see no reason why TT can't facilitate a deal similar to the Cassel and Kolb deals. There are teams out there that will covet Flynn and two of them have close connections with the Packers (Miami and Seattle). Miami makes the most sense because Flynn is well-versed in their new offensive system. That, coupled with their owner publicly stating that getting a franchise quarterback is priority #1 in the off season, leads me to believe that we can get some compensation from Miami in a tag/trade deal.

For you negative nellies out there, this exact same situation happened with Cassell and the Patriots. Why is the Cassell situation so much different than the Flynn situation? While I don't think we'll pull a first rounder, a second rounder from the Dolphins is very plausible.

And the Dolphins can't b*tch that much b/c a second rounder for a starting QB is nothing (hell, they've already used second round picks for Culpepper, Feeley and Henne). Assuming that Tannehill is going in the first, a second for Flynn is a bargain.

quote:

Originally posted by Fond Du Arrigo:
Dumb question about how Franchise Tags work

EDIT: Nevermind, I remember how it works now. I'm a dum dum.

Truer words have never been spoken.

I still think Wells or Finley play a major role in what to do with Flynn. I'm sure TT has a game plan for Finley and if all else fails we know we can win without him and have talent at the TE position. I don't believe we have that comfort zone at the center position. Haven't heard much about negotiations with Wells.

The reason the Cassel and Kolb deals worked is because there were stupid GMs that were willing to give up way too much for those players. And those players decided not to pursue the FA route.

Smart GMs and smart players don't make such deals.

If I am a GM and I really want Flynn, I'd do as EKB says above. Perhaps overpay him in FA but keep my picks.

you guys are probably right, pulling off deals for first round picks and franchise tags are probably a piece of cake

Not saying it'll be easy, but it's not unreasonable to think TT can get something for Flynn. I'd actually be more surprised if Flynn left for nothing than if TT got a second rounder for him.

And yes, it does depend on Finley and Wells. TT is one of the best in the league though, so I have faith he'll get something done with both of them.

I think you guys are making this too complicated trying to figure out who might do what.

The only way this works is if GB, Flynn & the other team all agree to things "behind the scenes". GB & team will agree on compensation, Flynn & team will agree on a new contract.

Failing those agreements, it's too risky to tag Flynn so he walks away as a FA & GB gets compensation per the secret formula.

quote:

Originally posted by FreeSafety:
The reason the Cassel and Kolb deals worked is because there were stupid GMs that were willing to give up way too much for those players. And those players decided not to pursue the FA route.

Smart GMs and smart players don't make such deals.

If I am a GM and I really want Flynn, I'd do as EKB says above. Perhaps overpay him in FA but keep my picks.

There is no way GB tags Flynn and ends up stuck with him. One of these teams that's willing to heavily pursue Flynn in FA will absolutely be interested... and will facilitate a trade. I can't think of one time a team franchised a player like this and ended up stuck. If one exists, please enlighten me.

Andrew Brandt's take on it, from a couple weeks ago:

"The possible use of the Tag on Matt Flynn is certainly an intriguing theory but an unlikely one.

The quarterback Tag number is projected at $14 million. Applying that number to Flynn transfers enormous leverage to the player. Were I Flynn's agent and were he to receive the Tag, I would have him immediately sign the tender guaranteeing him $14 million – $6 million more than Aaron Rodgers is scheduled to make. Even if the Tag amount is just a placeholder for a trade and new contract, the leverage swings hard to Flynn for a strong contract either with the Packers or an acquiring team.

Also, as mentioned above, the Packers would like the leverage of a potential Tag – and reasonable number – for Finley.

Finally, the NFLPA has expressed that the spirit of the Tag -- if not spelled out in writing -- should be to sign, not trade the player (the Matt Cassel “tag and trade” by the Patriots was differentiated by Tom Brady’s rehabilitation from a season-ending injury). Although proof and enforcement may be difficult, the Packers are not a team to test the outer limits of the rules when it comes to the league or union."

Link

The tag and trade will only happen if Thompson already has a deal in place with whoever wants Flynn. Thompson isn't stupid, he's not going to tag Flynn and hope someone will trade for him, if we tag Flynn it means he's already gone.

I still stay Wells is getting the tag. Tag Wells, sign him to a 3 year deal, draft his replacement...there's a good chance we will get a chance at Konz, but if we don't then I think Mike Brewster (Ohio St.) will be a solid Center in the NFL and could be had in round 2.

Jesus GD, if TT doesn't land an OLB in the first round (Assuming FA comes up with nobody) I might just have a seizure.

Speaking of FA, I know it's not TT's MO to dive too deep into it, but I have a feeling this year might be a bit different. I've listened to players such as Woodson talk about needing to upgrade personnel. I just read something about MM talking about the exact same thing. Yea, that could mean the draft and maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part, but I think TT reaches out and picks up a player or two that offers an immediate upgrade on defense.

Yeah....we could use a total overhaul...because we ended the season 15-2 coming off a superbowl W

The offense is so much more than fine...
What to do with Driver? (no lose situation)
What to do with Flynn (I don't think there's any choice there...he is a FA)
What to do with Wells and Finley? (I think they will both be kept)

The defense needs to be improved
Pray that Collins can come back
Get pass rush help from somewhere
Shore up the secondary.

I really think the biggest improvement that can be made on defense is to get the players hungry once again. I don't know this...there is no way I could...but maybe Raji, Shields, Hawk, Bishop..even T Williams rested on their laurels a little bit too much last season. I sure hope the way the defense played hurts their pride and gets them to step it up a notch. Like I said, I could be totally wrong...but maybe the same players, just different attitudes, are part of what this team needs.

I think the defense needs a little bit more than an attitude adjustment JAPF. Gotta have a safety opposite Burnett. If Collins can come back, great... draft a young player there to develop behind them.

Adding an OLB that can play is absolutely paramount to this defense. Hell, add two. The likes of Jones, Walden and Zombo lack talent more than anything. Upgrade.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Iowacheese:
Yeah....we could use a total overhaul...because we ended the season 15-2 coming off a superbowl W[/QUOTE


And with one of the worst defenses in NFL history and the biggest home choke job in packer history. The offense is great. We need some new player on defense though.

quote:

Originally posted by Pakrz:

quote:

Originally posted by FreeSafety:
The reason the Cassel and Kolb deals worked is because there were stupid GMs that were willing to give up way too much for those players. And those players decided not to pursue the FA route.

Smart GMs and smart players don't make such deals.

If I am a GM and I really want Flynn, I'd do as EKB says above. Perhaps overpay him in FA but keep my picks.

There is no way GB tags Flynn and ends up stuck with him. One of these teams that's willing to heavily pursue Flynn in FA will absolutely be interested... and will facilitate a trade. I can't think of one time a team franchised a player like this and ended up stuck. If one exists, please enlighten me.

Flynn has to agree to it all.

Brandt is right on.

Once TT tags Flynn. Matt Flynn holds all the cards.

Matt Flynn does not have to agree to a contract lower than $14M from anybody once he is tagged. It doesn't matter what kind of deal TT has with another team.

If Flynn feels he can work out the best possible deal for himself and go to a team he wants to go to without going into FA, why not just wait and make the deal once he becomes a FA? He can make the same deal and his new team would not be missing a key draft pick or two.

What is Matt Flynn's motivation to possibly take less money and certainly cause his new team to give up draft picks that they don't need to?

Because Kevin the-icon Kolb got $20M guaranteed, so there's no reason for Flynn to expect less that 14 or 15M. Especially when a 'FA' contract runs for a minimum of 2-3 years, even if he's a disaster wherever he goes. The leverage is Ted saying 'We'll ship you to JAX or somewhere horrible where you'll fail unless you agree to this and your contract that's much bigger than the franchise tag.'

I don't know if it's going to work out that way or not, and neither does anyone else. IMHO unless they somehow sign Finley and Wells before the tag has to be applied, Flynn walks for a comp pick anyway. They'll use the franchise tag on at least one of them first if they have to.

quote:

Originally posted by JJSD:
Flynn walks for a comp pick anyway.

That's the thing, even if he walks we could get a solid comp. pick in 2013, so it's not a total loss if we don't tag and trade him. Best case scenario we get a 3rd round comp. pick for him, worst case he gets a solid contract and gets hurt and we get a 5th based on his contract alone.

Worst case scenario for the whole Finley/Flynn dichotomy is that each would grab a 4th based on this whole mystery formula. Would you rather have a 4th rounder for losing Flynn or losing Finley? If you lose both you perhaps get a 2 in 2012 and a 4 in 2013. Is that worth it? Keep in mind you get to keep Finley and lose Flynn for a 4th and simultaneously save about $10M in cash. I'm gonna take Finley and a 4 for Flynn and a cap savings of $10M about 101 times out of 100 if those were the choices.

If they sign Finley and Wells before the tag deadline, I'll be ready to see Ted do some finagling with Flynn. Otherwise, he's a comp pick. We may as well get used to these issues with the way this roster is built. Lotsa guys are going to come up for renewal in the next few years, and Ted isn't going to extend too many of them.

One thing everybody forgets is that, unless the new rules have changed, is TT could rescind the tag if he doesn't get the right offer, in most cases if it Flynn's agent or another team didn't play ball after the 1st week most of the money is gone and Flynn would be looking at scraps. I think just as in the Corey Williams era a deal will be worked out long before any Packer fans go over a cliff.

However, I do not disagree with the premise that should Wells and Finley stick to their guns then Flynn would be able to walk and be happy with the 3rd in 2013!
pack88

quote:

The tag and trade will only happen if Thompson already has a deal in place with whoever wants Flynn.

What purpose does a tag have if a trade is in place?

So sweet and innocent.