And both at home. Sweet!
@Cheezers posted:These 2 games will determine the seeding.
If the Bucks take care of business in their other games, maybe not.
The Celtics are at 23 losses and the Sixers are at 22. Thus, the Bucks magic number for the one seed is 11 (go 10-1 to end). To secure the 2 seed it's 10. Since the Sixers and Celtics play each other one more time, at least one of those numbers is guaranteed to decrease just based on that game.
The caveat to this is the Bucks just got steamrolled by the Pacers at home, but of the 11 games left, the Bucks would be big favorites in 3.
Spurs at Home, at Detroit, at Indy
They'd be moderate favorites in another 3
at Utah, at Washington, Bulls at home.
If they take care of business in those 6 games, they'd be no worse than 57-25. Their other games are home games against Philly, Memphis, and Boston; and road games against Denver and Toronto.
The Celtics would have to go 8-2 to catch them if the Bucks just win the 6 games they'd be heavily favored. The Celtics have to play at Sacramento, at Philly, and at Milwaukee yet.
The Sixers would have to go 9-3. Philly plays at Golden State, at Milwaukee, at Phoenix, at Denver, home vs. the Celtics. home vs. the Mavs.
Those two games you noted would obviously count double in terms of decreasing the magic number to clinch seeds, but the Bucks are still in good shape if they take care of things when they should.
Of all the teams at Toronto may be one of their more difficult games. The Raptors seem to scheme for and play Giannis relatively well. They are also right on the fringe of playoffs in the East.
What’s challenging is you don’t know the seeding or motivation of teams like Memphis and Dallas or Denver I think Boston and Philly will be gunning for the top seed no matter what.
I think MP summed it up best. Just take care of your own business. If Milwaukee does that they should be in decent shape to get the 1 seed.
For a team to beat the Bucks (a healthy Bucks team) in a 7-game series, they have to have a guy that can at least slow down Giannis. That's why even otherwise good teams like Sacramento or Phoenix struggle. You either have to build a wall and hope that guys miss wide open 3s like Bledsoe did in the playoffs in 2019 and 2020 (or Allen and everyone else in 2022 without Middleton) or Giannis is going to hang 45 on you. You need a guy with the strength and length to make it tough on him.
They have 7 Eastern conference matchups as the one or two seed in round 1. This could be Chicago, Brooklyn, Atlanta, Pacers, Wizards, Miami, or Toronto.
Chicago, Brooklyn, Atlanta, or Washington are basically helpless.
The other three have guys that can match up enough to bother him - Anunoby (Toronto), Turner (Indy), or Adebayo (Heat). They could make it interesting in Round 1.
The Knicks could be a second round matchup and they have no one to guard him.
The Cavs are another second round matchup possibility and they are really well built to stop him with multiple big guys. Boston, of course, has Robert Williams, Horford, and Grant Williams.
Philly is actually the least likely to stop him of the top seeds, unless they put Embiid on him for big minutes. That would be a fascinating matchup over a 7 game series. Embiid is a great player, but he hasn't shown the toughness that Giannis has throughout his career.
If they make it out of the East, the Clippers could do it, but it would require Kawhi to guard him and if Leonard did that for 7 games, they'd have to increase his load management for the next 2 years. Memphis is also really well suited to stop him as well.
And the Sixers lose tonight at home to Chicago in double OT
@PackerRick posted:Harden with 5 points in 46 minutes.
I watched the OT periods. I wouldn't be surprised if Harden is hurt. He landed weird earlier in the game on his leg.
I normally don't like seeing guys get hurt. Harden is one of the exceptions.
He's a regular in Vegas and I can assure you he's not a nice guy as far as celebrities go.
It’s always possible they could prove us wrong but that’s why I don’t worry much about the Sixers. Harden is not clutch at all in the playoffs and Embiid has a shaky history of staying healthy. Plus, they are a pretty average defensive team. That’s a lot of what ifs. The Bucks and Celtics don’t have as many question marks.
@PackerRick posted:He's a regular in Vegas and I can assure you he's not a nice guy as far as celebrities go.
Harden was legendary in Houston for the amount of money he'd drop at strip clubs there. His hangout there lifted his jersey to the rafters when he left town. He dropped over a million dollars there one night.
https://www.si.com/nba/rockets...;pid=usatsi_17579329
I'm sure m NBA guys hang out at the clubs, but Harden is a whole other level and I'm surprised his body has held up as long as it has. He's an old 33 (34 in August).
@Tschmack posted:It’s always possible they could prove us wrong but that’s why I don’t worry much about the Sixers. Harden is not clutch at all in the playoffs and Embiid has a shaky history of staying healthy. Plus, they are a pretty average defensive team. That’s a lot of what ifs. The Bucks and Celtics don’t have as many question marks.
I think that's why getting the 1 seed is more important this year than ever. It's not the home court advantage as much as it is avoiding that 2-3 matchup in the second round. It's not like Cleveland would be a cakewalk, but you want the Sixers or Celtics as late in the playoffs as you can get.
That potential 2-3 seed matchup in the East could be a war of attrition. The Celtics depth allows them to come out of it a little better for the next series. The Sixers are basically Embiid and Harden and, as you say, neither guy has a history of taking care of their body enough to optimize staying healthy. They'd be very dangerous in a 2nd round series after an easy Round 1 series, but they'd be much easier to deal with coming off a 6-7 game series with the Celtics.
If the Sixers have to play a team like Miami in round 1, that won’t be a cakewalk for them. In fact, that series could easily go 6 or 7.
I agree though you’d want to face a Philly team or Boston in the ECF after facing each other because it would be a drag out, no holds barred slugfest.
Harden and Embiid have a track record of being banged up and we also need to keep in mind Al Horford isn’t getting any younger. If it’s a Celtics matchup v Milwaukee then Horford will have to play quite a bit because Robert Williams isn’t as playable against the Bucks because he can’t shoot. Boston will feature a heavy dose of Grant Williams and Al Horford and maybe Mike Muscala given all of those guys will force Milwaukee to defend them.
@Tschmack posted:If the Sixers have to play a team like Miami in round 1, that won’t be a cakewalk for them. In fact, that series could easily go 6 or 7.
I agree though you’d want to face a Philly team or Boston in the ECF after facing each other because it would be a drag out, no holds barred slugfest.
Harden and Embiid have a track record of being banged up and we also need to keep in mind Al Horford isn’t getting any younger. If it’s a Celtics matchup v Milwaukee then Horford will have to play quite a bit because Robert Williams isn’t as playable against the Bucks because he can’t shoot. Boston will feature a heavy dose of Grant Williams and Al Horford and maybe Mike Muscala given all of those guys will force Milwaukee to defend them.
The problem the Celtics have is that if they play Robert Williams big minutes to guard Giannis, it keeps Lopez on the floor since he has someone to guard on the defensive end that allows him to play in drop defense (you have honor Horford at the 3 point line). That's a big negative for Boston if you they can't play Lopez off the floor again.
If everyone is healthy on both teams, the big advantage Milwaukee has this year is they don't have to play Grayson Allen, George Hill, or Jevon Carter. I love watching Carter play, but I don't trust his jump shot and taking pull up 3s 1 on 4 is OK in regular season games in the first half is fine, but is not something you want to see in crunch time of a playoff game. Carter is basically an Eric Bledsoe clone which is great when you paying someone the vet minimum instead of 18 million a year and he's your 10th guy instead of your 3rd option on offense. He's also too short to defend Brown and Tatum. He's going to get more minutes against Philly (Harden) or a Finals matchup (Chris Paul, Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, etc.).
This year the Bucks have Giannis, Middleton, Holiday, Matthews, and Crowder as potential defenders against Tatum and Brown. All of them are big enough and strong enough to make those two work. Connaughton and Portis even have a fighting chance against them.
Last year it was Giannis, Holiday, and Matthews. Allen was hunted in that series. Carter was too short. Hill was also a target.
Even with that, the Celtics needed 2 career-best performances from role players to win 2 of those games.
Jayson Tatum going for 46 points (Game 6) is something that's going to happen. He's a HOF-level player.
As solid a player as Al Horford is, a game where he goes 11 for 14 from the floor, 5 for 7 from three, and goes for 30 and 8 is not something that's likely to happen again, especially at his age. That's what was the difference in Game 4.
Finally, Grant Williams hitting 6 of his first 10 three point shots in Game 7 to basically put the game out of reach at the end of three quarters is also a black swan event.
In game 7 last year, Hill and Allen played 22 minutes each and Pat C played 32 minutes. Combined, that’s like 2 guys worth of starting minutes amongst them. That can’t happen.
Fast forward to this year, swap out Middleton for Pat Cs minutes and Crowder for George Hill’s minutes and then go 11 minutes for Pat C and Allen and I like their chances.