Bye week - take a breath and look forward

I think Detroit has a little less suck with the new leadership.  I would speculate that this will be a pretty tight fight and that final home game could carry a lot of weight.  

 

Edit:  not sure if you wanted my real expectations or my lowered expectations...

I agree. I don't think Detroit is going anywhere this year. What sucks is they've been pulling out these games the last few weeks without most of their weapons on offense.

Since we are essentially 2 games back, I'm hoping it comes down to the last week.   I can't envision a scenario where we have it locked up

 

If Det loses two more, lets say @ ARI and @ NEP, they would be 11-4 coming into that game.  
They should be getting healthy soon so expecting more than that is unlikely.  That means we can only afford 1 loss to be 11-4 as well. 

 

Now, if we come in at 10-5 and them at 11-4 and then won, the tie breaker would probably go the 3rd level as we would split head to head and probably each have 1 division loss.  The 3rd tie breaker is common games.  Right now we are tied as they lost to CAR but beat NOLA.   If we both lose to NEP, it would go to conference record, where they have the edge as one of there losses is to BUF.

Long story short, I feel like we can only afford one more loss, and it can't be a division loss.  

 

Not the same?

Oh yeah, the wild card is no lock either...

 

The Eagles only have 2 losses while San Fran and Sea are at 3.   Sea own the head to head with us so that Eagles game could end up being what gets us in or keeps us out.   

 

Hopefully the Cards and Niners can each put a loss on SEA. 

I don't see much difference between the two schedules.  We play PHI, they play ARZ.  Draw.  I've said before that that last game could be for the div and maybe even for a playoff birth.  Everyone being smug about them collapsing again should realize they would have to collapse against CHI twice, TB and MIN.  I don't see that happening.

GBP get PHI and NEP at home while DET goes to NEP and ARI. I wouldn't call that a wash.

I'd feel a lot better if they didn't have a 1.5 game lead.

Week	DET	GBP
9	6-2	5-3
10	MIA (W)	CHI (W)
11	at ARI (L)	PHI (L)
12	at NEP (L)	at MIN (W)
13	CHI (W)	NEP (L)
14	TAM (W)	ATL (W)
15	MIN (W)	at BUF (W)
16	at CHI (L)	at TAM (W)
17	at GBP (L)	DET (W)

 

Green Bay 11-5

Detroit 10-6

 

If GB gets healthy, I could see them winning out in the regular season. 

Chicago will give DET a game, if it's in CHI or DET, who knows, but both of those games aren't just gimmes.  

 

I think we beat the Pats at home, on the road, might be different.  AZ is tough, and have to be in the mix for the WC.  So, right now, you have DAL/PHI, SF/AZ/SEA, DET/GB all in the mix for the WC.  No NFC South team should be in the mix.  I think the NFC West will go down to the wire.  AZ has beaten the Niners, has one more left with them, but has yet to play SEA or STL.  

I think the schedules are pretty close to a wash. Don't see Detroit collapsing like in the past. The new leadership will do a better job of holding things together -- provided Suh or Stafford don't go off the deep end. On the other hand, I see our D in big trouble against both Philly and NE. That could leave us on the outside looking in for the division, and in trouble for a wild card. And face it, even if we do get in, who are we going to stop? We would need our D especially to play way above their heads to win some games. 

"And face it, even if we do get in, who are we going to stop?"

 

I hear ya and I agree.  What gives me hope is that the NFC seems weak compared to last year.   Dallas has Romo, so even if they are that good, the chances that he chokes are always high.   Sea and San Fran seem down this year and Foles isn't half the player he was last year. 

 

It's not like last year when you knew the NFCC was going to be SEA and San Fran. 

Looks like Nick Fairley will be out for Detroit for a while if not the whole season. I don't wish injury on anyone, but that seems like karma doing it's thing with that guy...all the times he's purposely tried to injure other players. 

 

• GB doesn't often follow a loss with a loss when Aaron Rodgers is at QB and Chicago is a mess so I think that looks like a win. WIN
• GB will have the same trouble with Jeremy Maclin that they had with Brandon Cooks BUT Nick Foles has been an INT machine this year and it's at home so I think GB has a good chance in that one. WIN
• Minnesota is Minnesota, Adrian Peterson was the only Packer killer on that team. WIN
• New England is a tough team with Gronk in there, that will be a shootout. At home favors GB somewhat, but who knows what team will show up for either team. LOSS
• Atlanta will have an interim coach by then, they're a mess. WIN
• Against Buffalo in Buffalo will be a tough game. They are a surprising team, could be a toss up for me.LOSS
• Tampa is a mess, they're competing for the 1st overall pick. WIN
• This game depends on where Detroit is at. If they're fighting for the division or a wildcard spot then this will be tough. It's hard to bet on Detroit winning in GB though. WIN

11-5 seems realistic to me. 12-4 is the best case scenario, 9-7 is the worst case scenario. As for Detroit:

 

• Depends on which Miami team shows up. Cameron Wake could cause a major disruption with that offense, Detroit has been pulling out tough games though. WIN
• Arizona is red hot right now, can't see them losing at home. LOSS
• Can't see Detroit being able to handle Tom Brady at home. LOSS
• At home I give the edge to Detroit, but without Nick Fairley I think Cutler has more time. WIN
• Tampa is a mess. WIN
• Same for Minny. WIN
• I give the edge to Chicago, but this is a hard team to read. LOSS
• They struggle in GB, can't see them stealing the division in GB. LOSS

Detroit finishes 10-6, and gets a wildcard. 

If we blow out the Bears in Week 10, they will pack it up and quit on the season completely.   Again, we get to face a team that's backed into a corner.  Yippee. 

My fantasy team can't fathom Gronk playing out the rest of the season

My can damn it ... He needs to stay away from the hairy clams and he'll be alright

GD:

• I give the edge to Chicago, but this is a hard team to read. LOSS.

Why?

So for GB, CHI is a mess and an easy win but for DET, CHI is hard to read and a win for CHI? 

 

I honestly don't believe making the playoffs makes any difference if we can't beat good teams when we get there. 

At some point the luck will run out for Detroit.   The ATL game was ridiculous.   Losing one of their star defensive players won't help matters either. 

The Loins might be 6-2 but that is an 8 or 9 win team IMO.

Right now I'd have to give the overall advantage to Detroit simply because they're more balanced. Hard to go with the Packers until they're able to field a defense that can even be consistently just mediocre.

**** Detroit. You watched that game Sunday am, right??? They're as balanced as Matt Prater at an open bar. 

They also were missing their best player and multiple tight ends......just sayin

I'm sure is there a flaw in my scheduled out come but here is how I see it playing out for the NFC - only 1 team from the NFC south will be in:

GBP 11-5

Det 10-6

PHl - 12-4

Dal - 11-5

Sea - 10-6

Az - 13-3

49ers - 10-6

 And the Packers were missing a starting safety, a starting corner, a starting RG after the first series and their best player got injured during the 2nd half.

Accurate.. Also accurate, they won, we lost. 

None of those NFC teams scare me.   SF can't stop the pass.   Seattle can't score.   Detroit has been as lucky as they have been good.  Philly has won a bunch of close games and they don't play D.  Arizona is the 2013 Carolina Panthers and they aren't going anywhere.   New Orleans can't beat anyone on the road.

It's all about matchups and who is hot at the time.   I would not like having to travel to Seattle or New Orleans but as bad as GB has looked it's anyone's NFC come January.

It also seems playing at home would be fairly vital to playoff hopes. That doesn't bode as well for Green Bay.

It certainly is about matchups, and right now the Packer defense against any of the top-tier offenses isn't a particularly good one. I was foolish enough to actually believe that the unit was making positive progress but the game against the Saints told the true story.

No quote captures the true essence of the 2014 season better than this Jon Gruden masterpiece. 

 

"ANYTHING can happen on ANY given Sunday... ESPECIALLY on Monday night"

yeah, I guess with goodell's NFL that phrase should be changed to:  on any given day

if we were to get the Eagles, Panthers,  Cowboys or Cardinals in the playoffs that would be ideal.

Or the Saints/Lions at Lambeau

 

The other potential matchups make me cringe

 

If the Hawks and Niners miss the playoffs, that would be awesome. theyre just a bad matchup no matter the record. Eagles, Saints or Lions on the road are too much for Capers 

to handle. Demarco Murray isnt someone I really want to see either

 

Murray may not last the year the way they are riding him.

I'm not worried about any team. If this team can get everyone healthy, every other team should be scared.

I think this team could overcome injuries 

On the offense, I agree but with Shields and Burnett out, that appears to be too much for the defense.

Injuries happen, every coach/team/GM knows that.  Other than AR (who really is next level in this whole equation), I have high expectations for the team to make adjustments regardless of (other than AR) who or how many get hurt.  

I don't look to place any blame nor do I have expectations. Should they be able to make adjustments? Sure, they are paid a lot of money to play a game. They weren't able to do the job against the Saints. All they can do is move on to the next game and make sure they don't make the same mistakes.