"Capers needs to be much better" in 2012

I brought that very same point up here before the 2011 season. And while people like to say "they can't get any worse than 32nd" on D, they actually can. They can perform to a level that lets opposing teams actually win more games than they did last year. Hypothetically.

I have as much hope and guarded optimism about the improvemets the new guys and healed guys will bring as anyone this season. But the most disturbing trend from last year and in preseason so far this year (whatever that's worth) is the middle of the field looking like a hole in the scheme. The blitz gets picked up and some TE or slot WR picks up a 12yd first down on third and 5. The Packers face a lot of teams this year who have good TE's or other ways to exploit a soft middle. The D gut needs to get pressure on the Q or that will continue.

it's also fair to say that the talent just isn't there. They've surrounded Rodgers with everything a QB could dream of, but on the defensive side the front seven is average at best.

Looking back the one player they should have re-signed was Cullen Jenkins. In hindsight the health risk is worth it when you're talking about getting after the quarterback. If I was an Eagle fan I wouldn't mind seeing a guy that fired up in a preseason game. Sometimes anger just shows how much you care. Sometimes you need a crazy guy or two on that side.

To be honest, I think there's a bunch of pressure on a bunch of defensive rookies right now and they're just not ready. After reading about everything in camp, there's doesn't seem to be a "watch out for this guy" either. They're going to learn and improve, but even by the time the playoffs roll around they're still going to have a lot of lessons to learn and not a lot of consistency.

Well...we'll soon be finding out the answer to this and many other related questions about the "D".

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Sometimes you need a crazy guy or two on that side.

GB seems to have gotten that with drafting Worthy, Manning and signing Hargrove and Muir. But I do see where in the pre-season not a lot so far has suggested that. Then again it's just been 2 games and rookies in this position rarely are explosive in their 1st season. Perry could be but he's also learning a new position in a new defense. I just wonder how patient some Packer fans will be.

Capers obviously knows how to get the ball back to the offense. He's mastered using the DB's to create ALOT of turnovers and even someone like Peprah who was a pretty average safety managed 7 INT's in the last 2 years under Capers. GB led in takeaways in 2011 and it wasn't even close.

But tackling and getting to the QB were dramatic drop off's from previous years. So is that a pattern/regression? Or is it because TT and MM relied too much on guys like Frank Zombo, Jarius Wynn, Mike Neal, Brad Jones, Howard Green and Walden?

I have a hard time with these oft-repeated theories in that there is really no comparison between teams across one year let alone 3 years or even an entire career.

Just like the meme about the Packers having "the worst defense ever", this is just more of the same IMO - cherry picking stats to try and make a point or find a pattern.

Teams do well; then their players often leave for greener pastures, QBs change, HCs change, guys get old. There's a million reasons why defenses go up and down each year, not the least of which is the opponents they play - which changes from year to year.

If somebody can run a study and control for all other variables, then I'll give this a lot more credence.

Schemes alone don't win on defense, players do. Was Tramon's injury and drop-off the result of Capers being figured out ?
Poor tackling isn't related to half-time adjustments as far as I know

How about All-Pro Nick Collins ? Was his injury the result of Capers not being well prepared ? Sam Shields allergies to contact ? The loss of Jenkins and on and on. BJ Raji played too many snaps, not because Capers got outcoached, but because Dom didn't have any better options

Capers didn't get stupid as Rodney noted, he just didn't have the horses to do what he wanted - and he said as much in talking about getting LBs off the field in nickle and dime and replacing them with DBs who can cover better.

That's probably why we saw so much 2-4-5 last year- he simply didn't have a viable 3rd DL to bring in on passing downs.

TT restocked the personnel and now its Capers job to make it work. Surely there is some truth to the idea that teams "figure" him out, but I'm guessing its a whole lot less than all the other factors we talk about around here daily

We'll see soon enough...Give the man the tools he needs and GB will be back to a solid, well-coordinated defense in 2012.

mark it down

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Originally posted by packerboi:
... But eventually, teams (especially those within his division OR teams who've faced him in regular season then playoffs) figure him out and he becomes predictable...

This is the biggest problem I have with this argument; we've been pretty stout vs the NFCN over the last 2-3 years. Now a lot of this could be due to the other teams being fairly weak overall offensively, but my guess is we're 'built' to compete against these teams.

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Originally posted by Satori:
Was Tramon's injury and drop-off the result of Capers being figured out ?
Poor tackling isn't related to half-time adjustments as far as I know
How about All-Pro Nick Collins ? Was his injury the result of Capers not being well prepared ?
Sam Shields allergies to contact ?
The loss of Jenkins and on and on.
BJ Raji played too many snaps,

You forgot about Morgan Burnett playing with a cast on his hand.
The drop off in play after Eric Walden's off field problems.
Peprah & Bush blowing assignments
And the failure of the back ups to set up. That list is long and goes beyond Peprah & Bush.
The defense played the year with both hands tied behind it's back from a personnel perspective. It was no wonder they drafted all the guys on defense they did.

...and even though the defense "sucked so bad" last year, their record was 15-1

No, you guys aren't spoiled.

The defense will improve this year. I just hope our offense can keep putting the ball in the endzone.

What if??? (gasp) opposing defenses catch up to our offense? Ever give that some thought?

I just don't see any defense catching up with this offense anytime soon. Too many weapons.

The best way to slow this offense down is to bring pressure with 4 guys (Giants and 49'ers come to mind) or hope that a case of the drops shows up. I'm still concerned about LT. Newhouse get's a great test in week 1 against Aldon Smith.

If Benson can average 60-70 yards/game then the only thing that can stop this offense is this offense. Unfortunaltely we've seen them pull that off recently.

As far as the defense goes, I think it's actualy going to work in our favor that GB will get Neal back in week 5 and Hargrove after week 8 for the stretch run. I think Worthy and Daniels are going to hit the wall around week 10 and fresh legs will help. Neal has looked better. Getting House back soon (and then have him stay healthy) is important. It wouldn't surprise me to see Woodson end up with double digit interceptions in 2012 either once he settles into the "new" role.

@Satori.

Good post...

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Originally posted by Satori:
That's probably why we saw so much 2-4-5 last year- he simply didn't have a viable 3rd DL to bring in on passing downs.

Flooding the back end of the defense in a passing league results in fewer sacks and more picks, I'd say he played to their strengths.

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Originally posted by packerboi:
Capers obviously knows how to get the ball back to the offense. He's mastered using the DB's to create ALOT of turnovers

Given that opposing offenses were throwing so much to keep up with our offense all the passing yards given up were skewed. By the same token there were also a bunch more opportunities to take the ball away (like the 99 Rams who had 29 interceptions).

Against Brees and Manning (twice)last year they managed a total of two interceptions in three games. To me it's more important how they perform against those two guys because to get to the Superbowl chances are they're going to have to go through one of them in the playoffs. They get another crack at both this year and I think those two games more than any others will be an indicator of whether the defense is of championship caliber.

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Originally posted by packerboi:
I too recall a couple articles where Capers defenses were analyzed and some thought a pattern develops with his D's. Namely, he starts off very fast and confuses many HC's and coordinators. But eventually, teams (especially those within his division OR teams who've faced him in regular season then playoffs) figure him out and he becomes predictable.

At least in GB to me anyway, it's been more of a personnel issue then it has Capers suddenly sucking overnight. But I admit I didn't follow him closely in his years in was in the AFC.

It didn't happen in Pittsburgh (2nd in points in '92, 8th in '93, 2nd in '94); it happened in Carolina because A: He's not a good head coach B: He lost Bill Polian C: They were built to win in the short term with big spending in free agency, causing huge salary cap problems after their impressive first two seasons; lastly, Miami is just a junk franchise that hasn't done anything right in a decade. While I'm hoping that the Packers can get back to being a top 10 defense, my realistic prediction is that they will be right in the middle of the league in both points and yards allowed. Putting Woodson at safety will stabilize the back end, and CB will be fine if House and Williams are healthy. The determining factor in whether or not they're a top 10 defense will be riding on how far the new (or newly healthy) DL and OLB can take the pass rush.

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Originally posted by Coach:
@Satori.

Redundant.

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Originally posted by Hungry5:
Flooding the back end of the defense in a passing league results in fewer sacks and more picks, I'd say he played to their strengths.

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Capers blitzed five or more on 42.2% of drop-backs, an increase from 33% a year ago and 27% in '09. It was the highest five-man rate since the Journal Sentinel began tracking rush numbers in 1998. source

They blitzed a ton and couldn't get there.

The Good News

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2011 Pressure Plays, Defense
footballoutsiders.com
Just below Buffalo is Green Bay in dead last, which might seem surprising until you remember -- it's been a while -- that the Packers defense also ranked dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate. What separated them from the Bills, however, was that the Packers better maximized their efficiency on the relatively rare pass plays in which they did get pressure. Perhaps that's one factor that explains how the 24th-ranked pass defense can go 15-1 in this day and age. continue

Playing the AFC South this year will help. We get to face 3 rookie QB's from that division. Then again, Newton had almost 500 yards, i think, against us.

Luck
Locker
Gabbert

I expect at least 5 Woodson INT's from those 3 games.

I think the AFC West last year was just as bad.

Plus this year we face Manning, Brees, Schaub, Staffordx2 and Cutlerx2, who I think is going to look a lot better in the new offense.

I wouldn't count on Schaub. That China doll makes Turd Ferguson look like Brent Faver.

We play them in October so I would assume Monk is still playing.

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Originally posted by Pakrz:

quote:

Originally posted by Coach:
@Satori.

Redundant.

Agree, that too

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Originally posted by titmfatied:

To be honest, I think there's a bunch of pressure on a bunch of defensive rookies right now and they're just not ready.

And here is the JSOnline's Ty Dunne with an article on that very topic.

Congrats Titmfatied, you've got an even bigger fan base than just X4...


"Is there too much pressure on the rookies?"

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/167094115.html

Very interesting article. I don't want to disappoint our resident NC State fan, but much like Ty Dunne I wasn't impressed with Terrell Manning when I saw him. Loved him in college, great instincts, but he looked completely lost in the couple practices I caught. He's a talented player which is why it will be a tough decision to put him on the PS because surely another team will want to develop him, but it's a crowded field at ILB. Unlike previous years, we have an excess of talent at ILB with Smith, Francois, and Lattimore competing with Manning for those final two spots. We might keep 3 back-ups considering Francois and Lattimore's ST prowess, but Manning is clearly the odd man out IMO.

MM made some comment recently about how if the team gets back to winninig a championship, it won't be because of the rookies having an impact. It will be because 2nd and 3rd year guys step up and make that jump.

Almost like family except when Capers defense isnt sceery

It's one week. You can't

But where is this "nasty" we heard about in TC?

They were outplayed by a more physical team. The Giants also lost to the Packers in the season last year, so this game was not the end of the world.

Hopefully, we'll get them again and show how much we have improved by then...

It is week one. But if the Packers defense is playing as poorly as they did today by week 16 then I think Capers needs to be replaced.

Any news on House's availability for Thursday? He did practice every day last week, even though they were all listed as "limited participation". Jarrett Bush has no business as a starting DB in the NFL, and it makes me extremely sad to think that he was allowed to be one today. The rookies and 2nd year players will screw up, but there's at least a chance they will improve as they take their lumps. That possibility is absolutely nil with Bush back there.

He's practicing. In the harness. But rumor is as the shoulder heals that harness should get less and less restrictive. As I said in another post, I'd sooner see Casey Hayward then Bush at this point. At least that kid has upside.

I completely agree. Bush has hit his ceiling. I'd rather take rookie errors with some upside with House or Heyward than with Bush. Burnett better watch is backside too because I might want to see McMillian after seeing Burnett playing like he still has a club on his hand.

I think the Packers experience with William last year maybe a factor. They should of sat Williams until his shoulder heal a bit last year. The Packers may have decided to let House heal and have him for an end of the season run.

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Originally posted by Pack-Man:
Jarrett Bush has no business as a starting DB in the NFL, and it makes me extremely sad to think that he was allowed to be one today. The rookies and 2nd year players will screw up, but there's at least a chance they will improve as they take their lumps. That possibility is absolutely nil with Bush back there.

Three words: accountability, availabilty, and dip***t.

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Originally posted by packerboi:
It's one week. You can't

But where is this "nasty" we heard about in TC?

Um, Hargrove and Muir were cut. They are the ones that brought "nasty" and "juice."

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Originally posted by turnip blood:
I think the Packers experience with William last year maybe a factor. They should of sat Williams until his shoulder heal a bit last year. The Packers may have decided to let House heal and have him for an end of the season run.

He hasn't played a game since early August. If he can't play against the Bears (or at least the game after), he probably isn't going to be able to heal enough to be effective this season. No matter what, he's going to have to wear that harness all season long to prevent his shoulder from popping out again.

Bush can't do it.

He's targeted on whatever receiver he's covering.

Who can blame the opposite QB?

I can't remember EVER seeing Alex Smith look so good.

Every QB is going to look like a Hall of Famer vs. Jarrett Bush.

It's ****ing ridiculous he is a starting CB. However, Bush isn't the reason they lost. That was a team loss & MM has a lot to do with it.

The biggest reason was their inability to stop the run, everything the 49ers were able to do was built on top of their success on the ground. In spite of all the malarky we hear now about this being a "passing league", you're going to get your ass handed to you 99% of the time when the other team puts up 186 yards on the ground while only gaining 45. If the 49ers had been held to something closer to 100 yards on the ground, the complexion of the game would have been radically different. When a team can gash a defense for an easy five yards on every rush, guys start to second guess their assignments and start taking fewer chances rushing upfield and penetrating, which just makes things even worse.

That was a bit surprising to me as well. I looked at the stat line and while Alex Smith played pretty well I didn't know the D allowed nearly 200 yards on the ground. That's pathetic.

If you allow a good defensive team like SF the ability to control the clock and play ball control with their OL and TE and RBs it'll be a long day which it was. The disappointing thing is that they did this basically with just Gore and Brandon Jacobs didn't even play.

I think the defense will get better if they can get their DB position settled. the O coordinator did a nice job of targeting Bush and then Hawk and DJ Smith in coverage and their receivers made plays. It's going to happen. What shouldn't happen is when you see it happening and you don't make adjustments fast enough. Bush should have been pulled earlier in the game and they needed to bring in more DBs when SF was running their 3 WR, single back sets.

quote:

Originally posted by Pack-Man:
The biggest reason was their inability to stop the run, everything the 49ers were able to do was built on top of their success on the ground. In spite of all the malarky we hear now about this being a "passing league", you're going to get your ass handed to you 99% of the time when the other team puts up 186 yards on the ground while only gaining 45. If the 49ers had been held to something closer to 100 yards on the ground, the complexion of the game would have been radically different. When a team can gash a defense for an easy five yards on every rush, guys start to second guess their assignments and start taking fewer chances rushing upfield and penetrating, which just makes things even worse.

This is it. If we can't stop the run better than this, it is gonna be a loooong season.