Crystal Ball - Best Case

I would not count on Cobb being our Edelman, he like Bulaga cannot stay on the field.  I would keep him at a team friendly price but I am not sure he can be relied on.

What position will this Super Child play?   All?  

Obviously QB, but he would likely be the kicker and punter as well. 

Can't get rid of Bulaga until he gets successfully replaced. Even him playing 8 games next year will be helpful

Pettine has to be the HC. If he can get a bunch of misplaced scrubs to fight like hell to hold water then you can't run the risk of letting him be shown the door. He's earned the right and respect to find an offensive mind as OC and hand pick his DC. 

Rodgers said he wanted the organization to be "All In". That's about as all in as you can get and put's the ball in Rodgers lap. 

If Pettine declines and just wants to coach the defense then hire Vic Fangio and weaken the toughest hurdle in the division as long as he agrees to keep Pettine. 

Somehow GB has to keep Pettine. It's obvious he loves what he's doing and what he's doing is worth keeping. 

I like a lot of your plan but a few things:

-Please God no on McD.  He was a complete disaster in Denver.  Only positives of McD's tenure was drafting Demarious Thomas and sucking so bad it gave them the second pick in the 2011 draft (getting Von Miller).  Literally everything else in those two years was a disaster.  And not only did he perform poorly on the field, he had his own little spygate incident that lead to his firing mid season.  And remember he also left the Rams early one season as OC to go back and coach in NE and Rams pretty just let him go.  Plus he blew off Indy to go back to NE last year.  He's just not a professional who has failed everywhere he has been when he hasn't had Brady and Bellichick (just like every other NE assistant in the last 20 years).  

-Dead money: Your proposal results in $21m in dead cap in 2019 (half that if post June cuts but goes to 2020).  Could happen but I don't see Gute incurring that kind of dead cap money.  I think Perry goes b/c he's useless.  I think Graham stays as his ineffectiveness is more on MM than Graham.  Crosby stays after renegotiating.  Bulaga is a tough one.  He's as unreliable as any player I've seen but he's a good OT in a league devoid of OT talent and Packers have no replacement.  His cap hit is $8m and dead money is only $1.6m.  Tough call.  

-Cobb and CMIII do not come back.  Someone will pay them like we saw with Jordy.  But like with Jordy, they won't be worth it.  

Saw today that Bulaga had a 92% success rate in pass pro, higher than even Bakh who had a 90% success rate. Only Andrew Whitworth had a higher success rate than both. 

I think Graham stays as his ineffectiveness is more on MM than Graham. 

?????? He is garbage. The guy has lost any speed he ever had and falls down after every catch. He is no where near what he was.

I would not rule out the chance Bill Belichick jumps to GB either. I think Bill has had enough of Robert Kraft. 

Brainwashed Boris posted:

Can't get rid of Bulaga until he gets successfully replaced. Even him playing 8 games next year will be helpful

A part time Bulaga is better than a full time Spriggs. Mason stays unless somebody beats him out in Camp. Cobb gets a smaller deal. We bring in a lot of FAs and sort things out in camp.

ChilliJon posted:

I would not rule out the chance Bill Belichick jumps to GB either. I think Bill has had enough of Robert Kraft. 

That would mean a lot of messy keyboards and monitors.

In GB, BB would never get the control he wants —needs—to have. And I’m not convinced it would be an immediate success if BB came to GB. As much as MM’s success was due to Rodgers, BB owes Brady. Yes, BB has changed better with the times, but there’s also a reason he keeps welcoming back McDaniel. The three-headed beast in NE just works well together. Split them and I’m not sure they are as successful.

* And yes, I know the year Brady went down they had Cassel and still won, but they also did not exactly play a murderer’s row that year despite going 11-5—and not making the playoffs—a first with that record. Miami finished 11-5 and won the division, Pitt was 12-4 and won the SB, but NE also played Buff 2x (7-9), NYJ 2x (9-7), KC (2-14), SF (7-9), SD (8-8), Den (8-8), StL (2-14), IN (12-4), Seattle (4-12), Oakland (5-11), ARI (9-7). NE split with Miami and Jets, and beat Buff twice.

ChilliJon posted:

Pettine has to be the HC. If he can get a bunch of misplaced scrubs to fight like hell to hold water then you can't run the risk of letting him be shown the door. He's earned the right and respect to find an offensive mind as OC and hand pick his DC. 

Rodgers said he wanted the organization to be "All In". That's about as all in as you can get and put's the ball in Rodgers lap. 

If Pettine declines and just wants to coach the defense then hire Vic Fangio and weaken the toughest hurdle in the division as long as he agrees to keep Pettine. 

Somehow GB has to keep Pettine. It's obvious he loves what he's doing and what he's doing is worth keeping. 

I would be more than pleased with Pettine as HC if he would do it.  I think bringing in college guys to work as OCs becomes more workable.  Yeah, it isn't a HC position but you're working with Rodgers and it's still a visible position.  

I've soured on the whole McDaniels type guy.  With this front office structure nothing good can come of it.  Pettine is there, and excellent innovative DC.  I'd like to see who he brings in as assistant coaches.  That's a lot of contact with guys from the Ravens and Jets and Rexy guys who you can't deny make for some good defense.  

It also rules out meatheads like Fitzgerald.

Murphy just ****s this whole process.

Fandame posted:

In GB, BB would never get the control he wants —needs—to have. And I’m not convinced it would be an immediate success if BB came to GB. As much as MM’s success was due to Rodgers, BB owes Brady. Yes, BB has changed better with the times, but there’s also a reason he keeps welcoming back McDaniel. The three-headed beast in NE just works well together. Split them and I’m not sure they are as successful.

* And yes, I know the year Brady went down they had Cassel and still won, but they also did not exactly play a murderer’s row that year despite going 11-5—and not making the playoffs—a first with that record. Miami finished 11-5 and won the division, Pitt was 12-4 and won the SB, but NE also played Buff 2x (7-9), NYJ 2x (9-7), KC (2-14), SF (7-9), SD (8-8), Den (8-8), StL (2-14), IN (12-4), Seattle (4-12), Oakland (5-11), ARI (9-7). NE split with Miami and Jets, and beat Buff twice.

Yep.  People need to look at Belichek assistants with more than a wary eye because they are not the reason the Patriots succeed.  Maybe they can work with Belichek but they aren't shit on their own.  Honestly, I'm really in favor of the McVince style of hiring.  Go find a guy that's working with shit in the first place and getting some results.  

This rules out the Lincoln Riley's of the coaching world.

Henry, does that imply that we get a coach from the Ivy League or the military schools? They don’t have much to work with and, if I remember right, even Lombardi taught at a MC.

BBs assistants have often went to crappy teams so there is that. Assistants often grow and learn when they go from job to job. For example Pettine is better now than he was because of him learning from his experence. The ability to learn and adjust would be key in choosing a new HC. 

ChilliJon posted:

I would not rule out the chance Bill Belichick jumps to GB either. I think Bill has had enough of Robert Kraft. 

I think Kraft would be hard to work for. BB would be a definite step up from what we had in GB.

Henry posted:

ChilliJon posted:

Pettine has to be the HC. If he can get a bunch of misplaced scrubs to fight like hell to hold water then you can't run the risk of letting him be shown the door. He's earned the right and respect to find an offensive mind as OC and hand pick his DC. 

Rodgers said he wanted the organization to be "All In". That's about as all in as you can get and put's the ball in Rodgers lap. 

If Pettine declines and just wants to coach the defense then hire Vic Fangio and weaken the toughest hurdle in the division as long as he agrees to keep Pettine. 

Somehow GB has to keep Pettine. It's obvious he loves what he's doing and what he's doing is worth keeping. 

I would be more than pleased with Pettine as HC if he would do it.  I think bringing in college guys to work as OCs becomes more workable.  Yeah, it isn't a HC position but you're working with Rodgers and it's still a visible position.  

I've soured on the whole McDaniels type guy.  With this front office structure nothing good can come of it.  Pettine is there, and excellent innovative DC.  I'd like to see who he brings in as assistant coaches.  That's a lot of contact with guys from the Ravens and Jets and Rexy guys who you can't deny make for some good defense.  

It also rules out meatheads like Fitzgerald.

Murphy just ****s this whole process.

Has Pettine even expressed an interest in being HC? I want Pettine to stay in GB as he has put together a good defense with the players he had to work with. I'd like him to remain at DC and get him some players he wants.

Brainwashed Boris posted:

Can't get rid of Bulaga until he gets successfully replaced. Even him playing 8 games next year will be helpful

I agree you can't pull the trigger on letting him go just yet.

I am not sure if Perry can be cut the dead money hit is something like 10 or 12M. I am definately is favor of it I just don't know if they can just yet.

I would keep Crosby.  Sure he had a couple of bad games but he is still pretty darn good.  With as many of the NFL games that are so close you need a kicker who has experience and can get it done.

I would resign Breeland 

Resign Cobb if he can be signed at a decent salary

In the draft I think they will go OL and edge rusher heavy this year and I think we can expect a WR pick in the 2nd or 3rd round.

As for coach?  I don't think they will go in to the College ranks and I think they will hire a guy who has NFL experience.  As we have discussed on other threads I don't think the Packers have the luxury of hiring a college guy who will need an adjustment period to the NFL.  That and a lot of college offenses have been figured out by NFL defensive coordinators.  Look no further than that Oregon coach who went to Philly.  Great at first but DCs figured it out quickly and he faded away.

If doing more with less is the criteria for HC then Pettine should be considered. But then who is OC? Not Philbin for sure. And I would hate to see a drop in performance from a new DC that is not a Pettine clone.

I wouldn't worry about keeping Crosby. Field goals do not correlate to wins. The Jets, 49ers and Giants are 3-4-5 in made FGs and are among the top 8 in %. Winning teams score touchdowns. The top 7 in TDs are all in the playoffs.

$4.85 million is too much for that position, especially when he's not exceptional in any way.

ChilliJon posted:

I would not rule out the chance Bill Belichick jumps to GB either. I think Bill has had enough of Robert Kraft. 

Now I'd do that in a hot shit second but not good news for Gerglekrantz.

mrtundra posted:

Has Pettine even expressed an interest in being HC? I want Pettine to stay in GB as he has put together a good defense with the players he had to work with. I'd like him to remain at DC and get him some players he wants.

No, in an interview he said he didn't want to be HC again after the Cleveland mess but one hopes he'd be interested considering the location.

Henry posted:

Yep.  People need to look at Belichek assistants with more than a wary eye because they are not the reason the Patriots succeed.  Maybe they can work with Belichek but they aren't shit on their own. 

Whole lot of suck....

Eight of Belichick's assistant coaches have become NFL head coaches:

Romeo Crennel, Cleveland Browns (2005–2008), Kansas City Chiefs (2011–2012)
Al Groh, New York Jets (2000)
Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos (2009–2010)
Eric Mangini, New York Jets (2006–2008), Cleveland Browns (2009–2010)
Nick Saban, Miami Dolphins (2005–2006)
Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions (2009–2013)
Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans (2014–present)
Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions (2018–present)
Seven assistant coaches have become NCAA Division I head coaches:

Kirk Ferentz, Iowa (1999–present)
Al Groh, Wake Forest (1981–1986), Virginia (2001–2009)
Pat Hill, Fresno State (1997–2011)
Bill O'Brien, Penn State (2012–2014)
Nick Saban, Michigan State (1995–1999), LSU (2000–2004), Alabama (2007–present)
Charlie Weis, Notre Dame (2005–2009), Kansas (2011–2014)
Pete Mangurian, Columbia (2012–2014)

Saban is obviously highly successful (not in the NFL though), Ferentz has been successful, and Bill O'Brien has been moderately successful with a positive looking future. You could argue Pat Hill had some good years at Fresno. Beyond that it's a rough group. His assistants are a combined 171-240 as NFL HC's. 

I would take Pettine's early comment about not being a HC  again with a grain of salt. Likely just a reaction. Some comments from a Ryan Wood article just prior to the first Bears game including a quote from Rex Ryan, who was pretty close to Pettine and Dick Beck one his best friends:

"Life now isn’t what Pettine expected when the Browns hired him in 2014. Yet his satisfaction is clear. In his introductory news conference nine months ago, Pettine said he didn’t anticipate being a head coach again, something neither Beck nor Ryan believe.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt,” says Ryan, who's now an ESPN analyst. “When you win, that’s what happens. Everybody is smart as (expletive) when you win, and he’s going to be one of those. They’re going to win, and win big.

“He’s ready, man. He can’t wait. Sometimes, I think when you’re out of it, you can’t wait to get back in and light them up like a Christmas tree. I think that’s what he’s going to do.”

I could see Pettine as HC and Jim Leonard as a DC. Just need to find an outstanding OC. 

Inside Mike Pettine's Sabbatical

I don't think you could blame Pettine for saying that coming off the HC of Browns experience.  That would make anyone not want to be a HC again.  

But, now he is in a legit organization that is dedicated to winning maybe that could sway him to change his mind.  Would I like to see him get the job oh hell yes I do.  I would love the idea of a defensively minded HC who would be no nonsense approach to things and doesn't care if anyone's feelings are hurt.

Problem is if Murphy would even consider Pettine.  Even if it isn't Pettine, I'd like to see that kind of arrangement.  

Pettine's comments could have also been made to stop any "were you hired to replace McCarthy?" questions from the media at the time they were made.

I think a Pettine HC, Leonhard DC, Kingsbury OC, and Tracy Smith ST would be a good group. 

I'd be giddy.

Cobb just cannot stay on the field.   To me, his ability to stay on the field is so bad, that it would be a waste of a roster spot to keep him.  I really like him as a person, but we need to move on with the new.  

Petine is hired as head coach then turns around and hires Joe Philbin as OC. 

Hope not, regarding Philbin. 

Has GB ever had a defensive minded HC besides Phil Bengston ?

Ray Rhodes?

Ray Rhodes was a domino minded head coach. 

Actually Lombardi knew he had to have a great defense to win and so mostly his 1st moves were to shore up the D.  Traded for Henry Jordan, Willie Davis, and Emlen Tunnell,  drafted Adderly, signed Willie Wood as a FA. This was all in his 1st 2 years. So even he is known for his stamp on the offense, he was also very defensive minded. 

Racist

Is Mike Pettine the new Fritz Shurmer? In that I mean a guy who is a DC through and through, had the HC gig, wasn’t his thing? Of course, Fritz kinda invented some D, wrote a book that required reading in the football world, but maybe he’s a fine disciple... 

PackerPatrick posted:

Henry, does that imply that we get a coach from the Ivy League or the military schools? They don’t have much to work with and, if I remember right, even Lombardi taught at a MC.

BBs assistants have often went to crappy teams so there is that. Assistants often grow and learn when they go from job to job. For example Pettine is better now than he was because of him learning from his experence. The ability to learn and adjust would be key in choosing a new HC. 

Basically, look around and see who's making manageable chicken salad.  Nobody is going to look all world great on a bad team but you can see the guys getting the most out of their situation (Pettine).  McVince did good things with Aaron Brooks and Rich Gannon.  Chicken salad.  Find a chicken salad OC. 

I don't like the college coach HC thing.  OC, fine.  HC, no.

Floridarob posted:

Petine is hired as head coach then turns around and hires Joe Philbin as OC. 

Why would you think that?  He has no connection to McVince or Philbin outside of being "hired" by McVince for this year.

The thought that McDaniels was a disaster in Denver happened 9 years ago.

That's a lot of growing up that can happen in a decade. Discounting McD is a mistake.