Florida: Hurricane Milton

Beast.

Have a good friend in Tampa, she just evacuated today…..she had said Helene only dropped a ton of rain, but her home was ok……Milton???  She’s leavening now.  What do ya do??  I am just sick over all the devastation of Helene, and now another one.  I can only send so much money and I know it helps a little, but damn, I’m just sick for all who’s been affected.    🙏🏻  

160 MPH - 175 MPH. This one is no joke. I'm sincerely concerned for everyone down there.

I have family that winters down that way. My daughters MIL is in FT Myers who happens to be there now (her husband is still in WI bow hunting), messaged her to see if she evacuated, but have not heard anything back yet. One of my sisters winters in Sarasota, but her and her husband are still in WI. Another brother winters near Destin but his area appears safe. Anyway, I hope my daughters MIL stays safe and gets out of there, if she hasn't already. And that both her and my sisters properties come through OK.

This Milton appears to be one motherfucking storm. Compounding matters is debris still left on the curbs from the storm surge from Helene on FL's west coast. All that crap is going to be flying deadly projectiles and clogging everything up.

Remind me again why I should not ever retire to FL.

My oldest daughter lives near the airport in Fort Meyers.  This will be their 2nd hurricane since moving there.  The 1st was Ian, they had only been there about 2 months when that hit and were farther inland then. Had a little damage, but nothing major.  They were without power for 6 days.  They have moved from there to where they are now.   They don't seem too worried. 

From nhc.noaa.com

Projected peak surge

I hope people got out.

Luckily (hopefully) it’s likely to lose some steam before landfall. Even a Cat 3 is bad, especially with the associated issues, but Milton shot to a Cat 5 in an extremely short period of time and may hit the Yucatán coast at that strength.

Have a close friend who lives 2 blocks from the bay in St Petersburg. He’s moving to higher ground about 1 mile further inland but that doesn’t make me feel a whole lot better. I wish he would have just bailed out of the state but I get that Floridians think differently on this topic

Went from TD to cat 5 in 24 hours. No surprise when the waters are at record temperature.  This one might not be the last of the season.  Meanwhile another hurricane (there are currently a record 3 active in the atlantic) is on a path to hit Paris as a TD, potentially reaching Germany.

This is in no way normal. Normal is gone and it ain't a comin' back.

It is currently the 4th strongest hurricane ever recorded.

To put it into perspective for those in the midwest, the core of this hurricane is like a 70 mile wide EF2 tornado, with the center 5 miles being an EF4 tornado.

Unspeakable power. And nothing anyone Can do about it. Terrifying.

It hit upwards to 180 MPH but has "slowed" back down to 165 MPH

https://abcnews.go.com/US/live...mp;entryId=114582727

What’s happened this past month makes me wonder if people will begin a mass migration out of Florida forever.  I know many property insurance companies are beginning to increase their rates sky high or pull out of Florida entirely.  I know the State itself is providing insurance but I’m sure a year like this will bring that pool of funds to its’ knees.

Maybe people will just hope this year is a fluke.  But I think as long as the Gulf waters keep getting warmer every year, these dangerous storms are going to keep wreaking havoc every year there.

@DurangoDoug posted:

Remind me again why I should not ever retire to FL.

I am definitely not a Florida person and I am ok with visiting sometimes but I prefer to stay north.

Anyhow, If there are any X4 Florida residents, and you need to get out our door is always open for you.

Praying for all the people affected by this intense hurricane. I also wonder if a mass migration, out of Florida, is coming. Many insurance companies have already left the State, as others here have stated. Insurance rates there now, have to be through the roof, if you can get insurance, at all. Is it worth living there if there is a chance of you losing everything and then find that your insurance company has denied your claim, or offers to only pay you what you paid into your policy? No place is safe from bad weather, anymore. Look at Asheville, North Carolina. It is 2137 feet above sea level, hundreds of miles from the ocean, and was devastated by Hurricane Helene. How many people, in Asheville, had flood insurance protection in their policies?

I need to lighten the mood, if not just for the sake of sanity. Our CBS meteorologist down here in Tampa, Amanda Pappas. Makes the hourly updates somewhat more bearable....

Those are a category DD.

My brother is on Siesta Key. They've been down there a few years and dodged a few storms. Probably not this one.

The differences between a CAT 1, CAT 2, CAT 3, CAT 4, & CAT 5 hurricane

If you are in the path of #HurricanMilton stay safe! ❤️🙏 pic.twitter.com/gEWqurkTYI

— RetirementUnity.com 👍 (@RetirementUnity) October 7, 2024

Great simulation.

i don't normally get too nervous about these things but this one has me on edge. I have done all I can to prep. I am 30 miles inland in South Lakeland. Right now the track has the eye going between S Lakeland and Bartow, exactly where I live. The eye is only 3 miles wide but those winds are going to pack a punch. I have a beautiful oak tree in my front yard that I know won't make it. If it goes I hope it falls toward the road and not the house. My kids live within 10 miles of me to the South so they are going to get hit just as much if it continues this path.

I think the North Carolina devastation all made us take a 2nd look at how we handle these things. They are hundreds of miles in and they were devasted. We are 30 miles inland. My son used to live in and area known as old St Pete. His old house flooded from Helene two weeks ago because the storm surge was 6 ft above sea level. The storm surge for this one is supposed to reach 12 feet. There may not be anything left in St Pete or other places in Pinellas County if this continues.

This is the 1st time I ever considered leaving. But there is no place to go. People in N Florida and Georgia are still recovering from Helene and hotels are all booked. Plus there is no gas. This is scary for sure.

I-75 is packed and people are stranded from either traffic not moving or no gas.

Best bet right now is get inland and high. Hunker down to make it through. Stay safe!!

Can you go south to Miami? Sit at a rest area off the freeway. You've got bathrooms and running water. Get out!

@Floridarob posted:

I think the North Carolina devastation all made us take a 2nd look at how we handle these things. They are hundreds of miles in and they were devasted.

To be fair tho the NC situation is quite a bit different.  All that rain they got had to run down the mountains there and into the rivers that couldn't handle it and overflowed.  And we tend to build towns and roads in valleys along rivers.

But certainly one should never truly think they are safe.  Mother nature doesn't care.

A neighbor told me this morning she has a friend in NC that had a home on the side of the mountain. The rain from Helene did not just take down the house but also had the whole lot slide down the mountain. They have no place to rebuild. I cannot get my head around that. You don't insure the land.

@Floridarob posted:

i don't normally get too nervous about these things but this one has me on edge. I have done all I can to prep. I am 30 miles inland in South Lakeland. Right now the track has the eye going between S Lakeland and Bartow, exactly where I live.

Yeah the current forecast does not look good, even being inland that far:

There are towns where the topography has been completely altered by the floods in WNC, including some of the paths of rivers.

@Floridarob posted:

i don't normally get too nervous about these things but this one has me on edge. I have done all I can to prep. I am 30 miles inland in South Lakeland. Right now the track has the eye going between S Lakeland and Bartow, exactly where I live. The eye is only 3 miles wide but those winds are going to pack a punch. I have a beautiful oak tree in my front yard that I know won't make it. If it goes I hope it falls toward the road and not the house. My kids live within 10 miles of me to the South so they are going to get hit just as much if it continues this path.

I think the North Carolina devastation all made us take a 2nd look at how we handle these things. They are hundreds of miles in and they were devasted. We are 30 miles inland. My son used to live in and area known as old St Pete. His old house flooded from Helene two weeks ago because the storm surge was 6 ft above sea level. The storm surge for this one is supposed to reach 12 feet. There may not be anything left in St Pete or other places in Pinellas County if this continues.

This is the 1st time I ever considered leaving. But there is no place to go. People in N Florida and Georgia are still recovering from Helene and hotels are all booked. Plus there is no gas. This is scary for sure.

Same here,

We are all prepared as much as we can be here in Osceola County. Next few days are going to be stressful to say the least. Stay safe, hopefully we get out of it ok and have a beer afterwards!

@vitaflo posted:

Yeah the current forecast does not look good, even being inland that far:

Purple Color surrounds me. More reason to hate the Vikings...

I live in The Villages, Fl.. By the time Milton gets here we will only have 25-35 mph hour winds. I live in one of the safest places in Florida to be in Florida. Sending prayers to the people that live on the Gulf Coast of Florida. .

@Floridarob posted:

i don't normally get too nervous about these things but this one has me on edge. I have done all I can to prep. I am 30 miles inland in South Lakeland. Right now the track has the eye going between S Lakeland and Bartow, exactly where I live. The eye is only 3 miles wide but those winds are going to pack a punch. I have a beautiful oak tree in my front yard that I know won't make it. If it goes I hope it falls toward the road and not the house. My kids live within 10 miles of me to the South so they are going to get hit just as much if it continues this path.

I think the North Carolina devastation all made us take a 2nd look at how we handle these things. They are hundreds of miles in and they were devasted. We are 30 miles inland. My son used to live in and area known as old St Pete. His old house flooded from Helene two weeks ago because the storm surge was 6 ft above sea level. The storm surge for this one is supposed to reach 12 feet. There may not be anything left in St Pete or other places in Pinellas County if this continues.

This is the 1st time I ever considered leaving. But there is no place to go. People in N Florida and Georgia are still recovering from Helene and hotels are all booked. Plus there is no gas. This is scary for sure.

My friend lives in Lakeland, on 98nright behind the Aldi's. She is staying.

The issue with insurance in FL and everywhere that is facing increasing natural disasters (wildfires, floods, drought), is sooner than later the insurance industry will crater due to losses from a series of major events, or by cutting 10,000's of policies.  They've already done that is some places.  Then all those homes values drop out because they're uninsurable, people walk away from mortgages and you're pushing toward another economic event similar to 2008.  It could happen literally overnight or more slowly over a decade but that is where things are trending. 

This hurricane season was forecast to be especially active because of the preceding el Nino and the overheated waters of the gulf.  It got a late start but we're really just now in the peak.  Next year may be quieter because we're entering la Nina and the gulf may not be as hot.  But I'd be hard reconsidering relocating to most parts of FL.  I know folks are resilient and they want to rebuild their homes and communities but if these types of storms stay on this frequency over the last 5 years, it's going to stop making sense.  That's not even considering sea level rise along the coast.  It sucks.  I feel for all our friends down there.

@ShebPackFan posted:

My friend lives in Lakeland, on 98nright behind the Aldi's. She is staying.

That is about 10 miles north of me. There is a mobile home park behind there. If she is there, i pray she is safe or in a shelter. . My brother in law lives in one of those and when I asked him if he is boarded up, he told me he lives in a mobile home. Boarding up won't help. Going to scary for all of us.

@ShebPackFan posted:

I live in The Villages, Fl.. By the time Milton gets here we will only have 25-35 mph hour winds. I live in one of the safest places in Florida to be in Florida. Sending prayers to the people that live on the Gulf Coast of Florida. .

I have heard stories about that place. What color is your loofah? LOL

One of the problems in FL and along the East Coast is that we've replaced small homes and beach shacks with multi-million dollar mansions and condos. Florida's natural topography has been shaped by and can handle hurricanes and flooding. Same with barrier islands. We love beach culture so people have flocked to the coasts in the last hundred years. But the expectation must be that you're taking a chance when you build in these places. Have hurricanes gotten stronger and more frequent? Possibly. But nobody cared 200 years ago.

I never understood the attraction people have with Florida. I lived there for several years in the panhandle and have visited pretty much every region other than the Tampa area. Every time it’s the same thing… hot, humid, nasty critters, hurricane season, etc. Hard pass.

I just spent a week in The Villages on a golf trip. Decent golf courses and the whole golf cart thing down there as a primary mode of transportation is super cool… but that fucking heat/humidity is brutal. Also saw a few loofahs hanging off some golf carts. 😂

@NedFlanders posted:

One of the problems in FL and along the East Coast is that we've replaced small homes and beach shacks with multi-million dollar mansions and condos. Florida's natural topography has been shaped by and can handle hurricanes and flooding. Same with barrier islands. We love beach culture so people have flocked to the coasts in the last hundred years. But the expectation must be that you're taking a chance when you build in these places. Have hurricanes gotten stronger and more frequent? Possibly. But nobody cared 200 years ago.

A big problem is the destruction and/or removal of all the natural wetlands that used to ring the coast.  They acted as natural sponges to storm surge.  It's true along much of the gulf coast wherever there is beaches and $$$$.  Wetlands wouldn't save everything from storms this big and strong but they would certainly help.  It's one of the reasons people "didn't care 200 years ago". 

These things are no longer 1/100yr or once in a lifetime.  When is the last time western north carolina saw a TD and catastrophic flooding?  Paris and western germany are in the path of what will downgrade from a major hurricane to a TD.  When is the last time that happened?  There is a much longer list.  Warmer waters = more fuel for storms.

Last major hurricane with a direct hit to the Tampa area was over 100 years ago when the population was substantially smaller. With the millions now living in that area the destruction and loss of life could be unimaginable.

Update: my daughters MIL in FT Myers decided not to evacuate, she even has family with her vacationing this week. They live in a high rise condo that survived the direct hit from Ian (except for some expensive window replacements) a couple years ago. I hope they make it out of this OK.

One of the reasons my sister moved from Key West to Sarasota was the supposed safety from direct hurricane hits there, due to over 100 years of any direct hits. They even have very reasonable house insurance because of little damage over the years in Sarasota. While they are still up in WI now very worried about their property and if it suffers major damage from Milton.

How I feel about Florida: cut it loose!

On the other side of the Gulf, my sister lives a mile inland from the Texas coast and 10 miles south of the eye of Hurricane Harvey when it hit. She said, "It's never as bad as they say it's going to be" and decided to ride it out -- and that was the last time she said she'd ever do that. She said it was a whole lot scarier than she anticipated. If another comes her way, she says she's leaving until it's all over.