The return of Rickie Weeks to full strength is key to the Milwaukee Brewers making a run at the playoffs.
I've been looking at the projected records for the teams in the majors. Invariably, publications and online pundits are predicting the Brewers will win between 80 and 83 games, and will finish third or fourth in the division.
I don't believe it. In my humble opinion, I think the Brewers win 85 games minimum, and it's more than likely they win at least 90.
Why?
The Brewer team that finished the season going 36-23 from August 1st on bore a striking resemblance to the team that won the NL Central the year before, and just missed going to the World Series. It is my opinion the talent level on this team is closer to a division winner than a fourth place team. While we have apparently lost Corey Hart for the first few months of the season, we are still in a much better place than we were exactly one year ago.
Look objectively at the uphill climb the Brewers faced coming into the 2012 season. We'd just lost Prince Fielder, one of the most productive bats in the entire National League since coming up in 2005. Prince was third in the 2011 NL MVP vote, and he'd had perhaps his finest all around season as a pro. Ryan Braun's off season was tumultuous to say the least, and he didn't know if he was going to miss a full third of the season because of his positive test until approximately a month before the regular season started. Rickie Weeks, one of the main cogs in our offense, was nowhere near 100% healthy to begin the season, and he struggled mightily. Then, within a week's time, we lost Fielder's replacement, Mat Game, and our starting shortstop, Alex Gonzalez, for the year barely a month into the season. A few weeks later, we lost starting catcher Jonathan Lucroy for 50 games. And starting center fielder Nyjer Morgan, who'd played so well in 2011, was batting under .200 until mid May. Making matters worse, Aramis Ramirez, brought in to help pick up some of the offensive production lost when Prince Fielder went to Detroit, had his usual slow start to the season.
The Brewers had a huge hole to dig out of, and it's a testament to this team's resiliency that they almost made the playoffs as the second wild card.
The 2013 Brewers face a lot of uncertainty in their starting rotation. Zack Greinke is gone, as is Shaun Marcum. That leaves Yovani Gallardo, and several question marks. But if you look at last year's rotation, there were question marks as well. Marcum's injury bug reared it's ugly head once again, and it limited him to 21 starts. And while losing former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke was a blow, the Brewers as a team played better once he was traded. With Greinke, the Brewers were 44-52. Without him, Milwaukee managed to go 39-27 with many of the same guys that will be in the rotation this season all taking up the slack. His leaving did not sound the death knell of the team's season, and I think the players on this year's team will realize there is life after Greinke.
Besides Greinke and Marcum, Randy Wolf was in the rotation, and he pitched quite poorly. Wolf was 3-10 in his starts with the Brew Crew, and the team was 7-17 in his 24 starts. His ERA was 5.69, and his WHIP was an astronomical 1.58. Wolf's negative impact cannot be understated. He's gone now.
Let's look now at the guys that are likely to make the rotation besides Gallardo.
Marco Estrada was very good in his first real extended stretch as a Major League starter. He had a 5-7 record as a starter, but those numbers are misleading. In 129 1/3 innings pitched, he struck out 133 batters, or 9.3 K/9 IP, and his WHIP as a starter was an excellent 1.152. His 5.32 K:BB ratio was spectacular. How good? If he had pitched 32 2/3 more innings at that rate, he would have had the second best ratio in all the Major Leagues. Only Cliff Lee with a ratio of 7.39 was better. And surprisingly, his strikeout to walk ratio is at it's best when he's thrown 76 or more pitches. Then it jumps up to 12.50 (25 strikeouts vs 2 walks in 95 opponent plate appearances). That is a good sign for somebody converting from a reliever to a starter. He exhibits outstanding control when many pitchers would tire.
Michael Fiers is also in the mix for a starting rotation spot, as is Mark Rogers. Fiers was 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA, starting 22 games. He did struggle down the stretch, but I believe some of his struggles were due to the number of innings he'd pitched. In 2010 and 2011, he pitched 125 and 128 innings respectively. In 2012, he'd thrown 55 innings at AAA Nashville, then after coming up to Milwaukee, he threw another 127 2/3 innings. After 12 starts in Milwaukee (which represented 80 innings, or a combined 135 innings pitched for the season), Fiers was 6-4 with a 1.80 ERA. He'd struck out 80 batters in those 80 innings pitched. His WHIP was 1.0125 (65 hits and 16 walks). His next start at Colorado was the beginning of his downturn. He gave up 8 earned runs in 2 innings pitched. From that point forward, Fiers was 3-6 with a 6.99 ERA. His WHIP jumped to 1.70 (80 walks and hits surrendered in 47 2/3 IP). During that final stretch, opponents hit .308 off of Fiers, and had a BAbip of .383. Before that span, opponents were hitting .218 off of him, with a BAbip of .286. Of course, common sense would say that hitters could also have had more success off of Fiers because they'd "figured him out" with additional at bats. That might be some of it, but I believe that the likely explanation is that Fiers was in uncharted territory, and just ran out of gas. His K:BB ratio dropped from 5:1 to under 3:1 at the threshold I described. Hopefully Michael will be ready for an increased workload in 2013.
Mark Rogers, our oft-injured first round pick in 2004, finally got a chance to show what he was capable. In 7 starts, Mark was 3-1 with a 3.92 ERA. He struck out 9.5 per 9 IP, and had a 2.93 K:BB ratio. He won his last three starts (1 against the Cubs and 2 against the Pirates), with a 2.35 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 15 1/3 IP. He will have a chance at a rotation spot in spring training.
Finally, Wily Peralta, Milwaukee's top rated prospect, could be joining Gallardo, Estrada, Fiers and Rogers in the rotation. Peralta started 5 games, going 2-1. He gave up 3 earned runs in 6 innings for his first win against Miami. In his last four starts, Big Wily was 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA. He struck out 19 in 22 innings, his WHIP was 1.045, and he held his opponents to a .219 AVG.
The names are different, and not as big, but I don't think there will be that big a drop off from our composite starting pitching in 2012. I would be surprised if any of our projected starters pitch as poorly as Randy Wolf did last season.
Our bullpen could be what decides if we make the playoffs of not in 2013. It was a strength in 2011, and for the most part, it was a disaster last year. John Axford, one of the top closers in the Majors in 2011, started off strong, had a long rough spot, and then rebounded late in the season. Axford's K/9 IP last year was sensational at 12.1. The problem was the number of batters he let get on base, and subsequently score. His WHIP rose from 1.140 in 2011 to 1.442 in 2012. His K:BB ratio dropped from 3.44 in 2011 to 2.38 in 2012, and his ERA skyrocketed from 1.95 to 4.67. However, from August 28th until his last appearance on October 3rd, he regained his control. During that span, he had a 2.60 ERA, holding opposing hitters to a .145 AVG. His WHIP dropped to 1.098, and he converted 15 of 16 save opportunities. Milwaukee went 17-2 in games that Axford appeared in.
The Brewers also added a few new bullpen pieces that should represent an improvement. Mike Gonzalez and Tom Gorzelanny both join the Brewers after successful 2012 seasons with the Washington Nationals. Also added was Burke Badenhop of the Tampa Rays. Others who could see bullpen work in 2013 are Tyler Thornburg (though eventually he will compete for a roster spot), and Jimmy Nelson.
I do believe our bullpen's performance will drastically improve.
Though there's a lot of uncertainty with our pitching, the Brewer lineup should remain potent, even with Corey Hart's injury. Jean Segura, acquired in the trade for Zack Greinke, is our shortstop of the future. The kid can flat out hit, and should be a fixture atop the lineup soon. Mat Gamel will be given another chance at first base, and hopefully he's able to produce at the Major League level as he has in the minors. If not, we might see Hunter Morris, Milwaukee's 2012 Minor League Player of the year, in the lineup soon.
Though the first base spot is unsettled, the heart of the order is not. Aramis Ramirez had an MVP-caliber season coming over from the Cubs, and was outstanding defensively at third. And Ryan Braun should have been the NL MVP after putting up Triple Crown caliber numbers. Braun set a career high with 41 home runs, stole 30 bases for the second consecutive season, and hit .319 with 112 RBI. Jonathan Lucroy is healthy, and after hitting .320 with 12 HR and 58 RBI in only 96 games, his bat back in the lineup for a full season will be welcome news. With Martin Maldonado, the Brewers have one of the best catching platoons in the Majors. Carlos Gomez's immense promise was finally realized last season, hitting a career high .260 with 19 HR and 37 stolen bases. He also played his usual outstanding defense in center.
But the biggest addition for the Brewers this season will be the return to form of Rickie Weeks. After coming back from a horrific ankle injury at the end of the 2011 season, Rickie struggled, hitting under .200 for much of the season. But over the last 64 games of 2012, Rickie Weeks was Rickie Weeks once again. Weeks scored 46 runs, hit .270 with 11 home runs, and stole 9 bases. Projected over a whole season, Weeks would have scored 117 runs, hit 28 home runs, and stolen 23 bases. Weeks at full strength will greatly help the Brewers overcome the loss of Corey Hart. When healthy, and on his game, Weeks can carry a team. Bold prediction: Rickie Weeks sets a career high with 30 home runs, and leads the National League in runs scored.
There are a lot of questions, and something unforeseen could always pop up to slow the team down. But I think that the Brewers will surprise a lot of people this season. Here's hoping I'm right.
