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I think this warrants it's own thread. This is behind a paywall, so I will post snips from the Athletic:

The Packers, who fell to 3-5, start six first-round picks on defense: Walker (2022), defensive tackle Kenny Clark (2016), edge rusher Rashan Gary (2019), cornerback Jaire Alexander (2018), cornerback Eric Stokes (2021) and safety Darnell Savage Jr. (2019). They also have a 2021 first-team All-Pro inside linebacker in De’Vondre Campbell, a 2021 Pro Bowl alternate cornerback in Rasul Douglas, an edge rusher they’ve given two big-money contracts to in Preston Smith, a solid safety in Adrian Amos and a couple defensive linemen who can hold their own.

So in essence, Green Bay’s defense shouldn’t be this bad. But it is.

Did they limit the league’s No. 2 scoring offense to just three points in the second half on Sunday night? Yes, but they surrendered 24 points in the first half and benefitted, in the form of two interceptions, from what seemed like Bills quarterback Josh Allen hurling the pigskin around with little care since his team held a comfortable lead late in the game. After the Packers forced a three-and-out on the Bills’ opening drive, Buffalo scored on five consecutive possessions. The Bills averaged 5.7 yards per rush on 27 carries Sunday, and the Packers now rank 25th in the NFL in yards per rush allowed (4.89). Perhaps one of these years the Packers will field a respectable run defense.

Through eight games, the Packers rank 16th in points allowed per game (21.63), tied for 13th in defensive EPA (expected points added) per play, tied for 26th in takeaways (seven) and tied for 18th in defensive penalties (19).

On paper, defensive coordinator Joe Barry should have a top-five unit. Instead, his defense has vastly underachieved through what was supposed to be the easier half of its schedule, facing the Bears, Buccaneers without key wideouts and offensive linemen, Patriots, Giants, Jets and Commanders. The Packers’ offense and special teams haven’t been good, but those aren’t world-breaking revelations for units that lost the best best wide receiver in football and ranked last in the NFL last season in DVOA, respectively.

But this defense being this leaky? With the individual talent it has? That has been the biggest surprise of the season.

Snip-

The defensive deficiencies are the fault of an entire organization.

First, there’s general manager Brian Gutekunst. For starters, he drafted Savage in the first round three years ago and even exercised his fifth-year option for next season (his salary is guaranteed at about $7.9 million for 2023). Yet Savage has never amounted to the game-changing playmaker Green Bay needs on the back end. His poor tackle attempt of Allen on a 20-yard scramble on third-and-14 in the first quarter stood out, but it wasn’t his last missed tackle Sunday night, adding to a collection of missed tackles this season for someone who’s supposed to be a thumper.

Gutekunst drafted Stokes in the first round last year, and he has been downright bad in coverage this year after a promising rookie season. On Sunday night, the Packers even benched Stokes temporarily in favor of first-year Packer and slot corner Keisean Nixon.

Why?

“Just to change it up,” head coach Matt LaFleur said. “That’s why.”

Gutekunst, along with executive vice president Russ Ball, doled out sizable new contracts to Campbell and Douglas this offseason after their breakout 2021 campaigns. So far, both those deals look bad, each player looking more like a one-hit wonder than a consistent force.

Then there’s Barry, previously the coordinator of poor defenses in Washington and Detroit (when the Lions went 0-16), who got a pass when he arrived in Green Bay because of how devoid of talent those units were at past stops. But this defense doesn’t fit that description. The team’s soft coverage has been questionable, and it’s mind-blowing that Alexander is getting paid $21 million per year as the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history to cover players who aren’t the opponent’s top wide receiver. Any time a unit with so much individual talent and potential falls this short of expectations, all eyes turn to the coach coordinating it all.

Then there’s LaFleur, the head coach who hand-picked Barry since he came from the trendy Vic Fangio/Brandon Staley defensive tree designed to keep everything in front of the safeties and prevent big plays. Not only do the Packers struggle to stop the run — they have allowed the fifth-most runs of 12 yards or more (24) — but entering Week 8, they had allowed a league-high 60.9 completion percentage on passes of at least 15 air yards. That was before Allen averaged 16.8 yards per completion Sunday night.

Then there are the players — Savage, Stokes, Douglas, Campbell, Alexander against the Commanders, Gary against the run, etc. — who haven’t delivered. They often disappear for extended stretches during games, with the first half against the Vikings, second half against the Giants and first half against the Bills being the three most notable instances.

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Savage is a mess and that does fall on Gute, not Barry. But the rest? This is a defense way too talented to be this bad. It's hardly a reach to think what a Todd Bowles or a Sean McDermett or a ____ could do with this defense vs Barry.

I am not a fan of changing coordinators like you do underwear but assuming this trend continues, and there is no reason to believe it will not, you would have to assume MLF will have yet another new DC in 2023.

As for Gute, while I do not think his seat is hot per say, with the results he's gotten from Savage, a sophomore slump in Stokes, a 1st round pick in Wyatt who can't even get on the field and Watson who can't stay on the field....

Yes, there is significant reason for concern.     

Worst part about Savage isn't the drafting (it's the nature of the beast) but it's the inexplicable picking up of the fifth year option. He showed some good things his second year and really nothing since.

The article rattles off all of the first rounders and FA's on Defense. One D lineman Clark. Has Kenny's number been called all year? The only time I noticed him all year was his penalty that voided a sack. Slaton made a couple of plays. I think Lowry fell on a guy once. Team was supposed to have one of it's best lines in years and hasn't done shit!

@michiganjoe posted:

Worst part about Savage isn't the drafting (it's the nature of the beast) but it's the inexplicable picking up of the fifth year option. He showed some good things his second year and really nothing since.

Word.

For a very brief moment, you wondered if placing him near the line of scrimmage and using him as a Jamal Adams bruiser/sack safety might be a better option. The Packers almost never went there and he's pure garbage in space and Wayne Larivee said this morning "insiders" say he has no instinct for the ball.

It took 5 years to figure that out? It's been painfully obvious for years.   

@Packiderm posted:

The article rattles off all of the first rounders and FA's on Defense. One D lineman Clark. Has Kenny's number been called all year? The only time I noticed him all year was his penalty that voided a sack. Slaton made a couple of plays. I think Lowry fell on a guy once. Team was supposed to have one of it's best lines in years and hasn't done shit!

Joe Barry had a terrible track record before coming here. He had one good half season last year in some measure because of turnovers (mainly R. Douglas). To paraphrase Maya Angelou, when someone has shown you who they are, believe them.

Gutey got by for several years because almost all the elite talent that got the Packers 39 wins the last three years was here when he took over in 2018 - Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, D. Bakhtiari, D. Adams, Kenny Clark. They invested one of their first round picks this year in a 24 year old DL that isn't good enough to get snaps. It would be one thing if D. Wyatt was some 20 year old phenom that just needed some time to grow into his obvious physical gifts.

The 2020 and 2021 draft classes may eventually rank up there with the 2015 and 2017 as being some of the worst Packer draft classes ever.

2021: Stokes, Myers, Amari, Newman, Slaton, Jean-Charles, Van Lanen, McDuffie, K. Hill
2020: Love, Dillon, DeGuara, Martin, Runyan, Hansen, Stepaniak, Scott, Garvin
18 draft picks resulting in 3 marginal starters right now - Stokes, Myers, and Runyan. These are guys that should be making the leap to stars or at least good starters. Right now, it looks like mostly washouts.
2019 netted Gary and Jenkins, but Savage is the only other starter.

I've watched every Barry presser since he got here and just don't see him as a leader / motivator. By acknowledging reporters by their first name as soon as he got here, to referring to every player by their nickname, to constantly praising players ....I know I am a little bit old school, but the guy just doesn't seem like a genuine straight-shooter to me.... seems like he has some "snake oil salesman" in him.

@Packiderm posted:

The article rattles off all of the first rounders and FA's on Defense. One D lineman Clark. Has Kenny's number been called all year? The only time I noticed him all year was his penalty that voided a sack. Slaton made a couple of plays. I think Lowry fell on a guy once. Team was supposed to have one of it's best lines in years and hasn't done shit!

Well actually two 1st rounders on the defensive line, but I can understand why Packer fans have already forgotten about 2022 1st round pick Devonte "Ghost" Wyatt.

Joe Barry had a terrible track record before coming here. He had one good half season last year in some measure because of turnovers (mainly R. Douglas). To paraphrase Maya Angelou, when someone has shown you who they are, believe them.

Gutey got by for several years because almost all the elite talent that got the Packers 39 wins the last three years was here when he took over in 2018 - Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, D. Bakhtiari, D. Adams, Kenny Clark. They invested one of their first round picks this year in a 24 year old DL that isn't good enough to get snaps. It would be one thing if D. Wyatt was some 20 year old phenom that just needed some time to grow into his obvious physical gifts.

The 2020 and 2021 draft classes may eventually rank up there with the 2015 and 2017 as being some of the worst Packer draft classes ever.

2021: Stokes, Myers, Amari, Newman, Slaton, Jean-Charles, Van Lanen, McDuffie, K. Hill
2020: Love, Dillon, DeGuara, Martin, Runyan, Hansen, Stepaniak, Scott, Garvin
18 draft picks resulting in 3 marginal starters right now - Stokes, Myers, and Runyan. These are guys that should be making the leap to stars or at least good starters. Right now, it looks like mostly washouts.
2019 netted Gary and Jenkins, but Savage is the only other starter.

Never thought I'd see a Maya Angelou quote in this Forum, but it fits since this team seems like a bunch of free spirit, new age pacifists.

That Special Teams, with dudes like Rudy Ford, aren't improving should also be a concern. And that's an area of the team with a very good coach.

So is that a MLF issue? Is it still lack of ST's talent so then it goes back to Gute?

I'll say this. At least so far, Crosby and the punter look good. KR/PR, penalties like the one that wiped what would have been a really nice return are still huge problems.

@packerboi posted:

I am not a fan of changing coordinators like you do underwear but assuming this trend continues, and there is no reason to believe it will not, you would have to assume MLF will have yet another new DC in 2023.



I tend to think of a GMs job is to get the best talent he can given the salary cap and turn it over to the  coaching staff to get them coached up.  So for me I think the continued crapping the bed on defense has to fall on the coordinator.  The GM can give him all the talent in the world but if they can't/won't tackle and get gashed by the running game that is scheme blame and simple  to me and Barry should be firmly upon the hot seat.  I do agree that changing DCs all the time is not a great idea but this current DC just isn't cutting it. 

I am not in the camp of Gute should be on the hot seat just yet but if this team continues its downwards trend this year and in to next then it may be time to look at things.

It’s both. There’s another article in The Athletic today looking at the offense.https://theathletic.com/3738786/2022/10/31/packers-chiefs-nfl-trade-deadline/

Barry is shit on a shingle, but Fredokunst is a fucking disaster. Basically, the Chiefs had a plan for when they traded Hill. The Packers didn’t. The Chiefs not only had Kielce, but they went and got JJSS and MVS while already having Hardman, as well. The WR touches get spread a lot more, but Kelce’s still an elite mismatch baller and they can all get separation.

LaFleur’s desire to be a Running team may also be an issue. Rodgers is still throwing well, but they don’t build and scheme around what they have on either side of the ball, instead they seem to randomly select guys, kind of like Thompson did, but now they have an aging Rodgers, a shit o-line and garbage at receiver and Rodgers can’t cover this much stink at this point.

Dissention in the ranks?

According to sources close to members of the Packers' defense, players have grown frustrated with the defensive scheme and playcalling. One source said there has been "a declining confidence in the defensive scheme and what's being called, and it's led to overall frustration with the defense." Another source confirmed that sentiment.

LaFleur has no plans to shake up Packers defensive staff (espn.com)

Not a good look when the players aren't buying into the DC or the scheme.   

I think it's two opposite problems.

On offense, it's talent. How many guys has Gutey made good value on in terms of offensive draft picks since he took over? I would say 2, maybe 3. That would be Jenkins (2nd round), Doubs (4th), and Dillon (2nd-but maybe drafted a little early).

Look at these other picks since Gutey took over the draft in 2018. Out of these 10 guys, only Myers is contributing as a starter - and he hasn't exactly looked like a 2nd round center). When you consider they used other good value picks to trade up for Love, Amari, and C. Watson it looks even worse. If you count that, they've used 13 picks in the last 5 drafts to get these 10 guys.

1st rounders (Love)

2nd Rounders (C. Watson, J. Myers)

3rd rounders (DeGuara, Rhyan, Sternberger, Amari)

4th rounders (Newman, Tom, J'Mon Moore)

On defense, as others have said, there should be more than enough talent. The passive zone scheme doesn't fit the man skills of their DBs. They hardly ever blitz and just do what they do.

MLF walked into a situation with a HOF QB who had tuned out the previous coach and looked good because of it. It's hard to judge his schemes this year because the front office has screwed up so badly in the draft. And the fact that they thought that Sammy Watkins was the answer to anything should say a lot.

@SteveLuke posted:

Is it Barry or is it Gute?

Why not both?

Another worthy Huber article: "The #Packers are 16th in points allowed. Is it Joe Barry? The personnel? Both? A look, with the help of a couple scouts, on what's gone wrong."

A couple of snippets:

"The run defense is horrendous, with five games of 150-plus rushing yards allowed. Only four teams have forced fewer turnovers. During the Bills’ run of five consecutive scores on Sunday night, it was so easy that they ran only two plays on third down.

“The defense is bad,” said one high-ranking team executive. “Gutey hasn’t drafted well. (Eric) Stokes has regressed to what he likely is and (Darnell) Savage has played bad since Year 1. Kenny (Clark) is the only real dude on the front.”

Frustration is building. A source told ESPN.com that there is “a declining confidence” in Barry’s scheme."

- With the 22nd pick, Gutekunst could have drafted the Butkus Award-winning linebacker Devin Lloyd but chose Walker. Lloyd, who was the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Month for September, has 68 tackles, two interceptions and six passes defensed for Jacksonville. Walker has 56 tackles, two passes defensed and two forced fumbles.

“I’ll never understand that one,” said one scout who recently watched the Packers

- With the 28th pick, Gutekunst chose Wyatt, who has played merely 57 snaps.

“A first-round pick on a guy who you knew was going to be the fifth lineman?” wondered the scout.

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/lafleur-sticking-with-barry-to-run-overrated-defense

Methinks Bill might not be on Murph's (or Ammo's) Christmas card list this year.

Last edited by SteveLuke
@ammo posted:

Hindsight is always 20-20.   That is about like Hubers.... and your IQ, 20.

An NFL scout asserting, in October of 2022, that "Gutey hasn't drafted well" is making a contemporaneous, declarative statement.

Labeling such an indictment of the current Packer GM's drafting acumen in Bill Huber's latest article as "Hindisght" is a logical non sequitur.

That said, referring to uncomfortable (for his devoted fans) truths pertaining to Gutey's drafting record as nothing more than hindsight is certainly what those who are unwilling or unable to accept reality are wont to do.

Indeed, many Packer fans initially refused to accept that Ted Thompson had fallen off a cliff despite a disastrous drafting record at the end of his tenure. Only later when the news finally came out about how Ted was medically diminished during his final few years as GM did that portion of the fan base admit that the HaHa Clinton-Dix, Damarious Randall, Quentin Rollins, Jason Spriggs, Josh Jones, Kevin King (over TJ Watt) round 1-2 picks were awful.

As the 2022 Packers continue to flounder with a weak defense filled with 1st round Gutey picks, a group of pass catchers only Gutey seems to believe is adequate, and a Special Teams unit best known for a returner who Gutey traded up in the 3rd round to take so he could then lead the NFL in fumbled punts, I fully expect even the generally compliant Wisconsin press to start producing more such HINDSIGHT articles .

Last edited by SteveLuke

And after year 1 how many said Rashan Gary was a another Packer 1st round bust??   Many many scouts, pundits and posters on this board.  Even you.  Now he looks like a premier outside pass rusher.   You gotta give guys time to develope.  I know you have the patience of a  kindergartener but I prefer to see if Wyatt will develope before saying he is a bust. I suggest you and Huber do the same.

Last edited by ammo
@SteveLuke posted:

An NFL scout asserting, in October of 2022, that "Gutey hasn't drafted well" is making a contemporaneous, declarative statement.

Labeling such an indictment of the current Packer GM's drafting acumen in Bill Huber's latest article as "Hindisght" is a logical non sequitur.

That said, referring to uncomfortable (for his devoted fans) truths pertaining to Gutey's drafting record as nothing more than hindsight is certainly what those who are unwilling or unable to accept reality are wont to do.

Indeed, many Packer fans initially refused to accept that Ted Thompson had fallen off a cliff despite a disastrous drafting record at the end of his tenure. Only later when the news finally came out about how Ted was medically diminished during his final few years as GM did that portion of the fan base admit that the HaHa Clinton-Dix, Damarious Randall, Quentin Rollins, Jason Spriggs, Josh Jones, Kevin King (over TJ Watt) round 1-2 picks were awful.

As the 2022 Packers continue to flounder with a weak defense filled with 1st round Gutey picks, a group of pass catchers only Gutey seems to believe is adequate, and a Special Teams unit best known for a returner who Gutey traded up in the 3rd round to take so he could then lead the NFL in fumbled punts, I fully expect even the generally compliant Wisconsin press to start producing more such HINDSIGHT articles .

Despite how their attitudes (being crotchety old guys) bugged many of us sometimes, I never knew how much I'd miss McGinn and Christl until recently.

@ammo posted:

And after year 1 how many said Rashan Gary was a another Packer 1st round bust??   Many many scouts, pundits and posters on this board.  Now he looks like a premier outside pass rusher.   You gotta give guys time to develope.  I know you have the patience of a  kindergartener but I prefer to see if Wyatt will develope before saying he is a bust. I suggest you and Huber do the same.

I agree to some extend, but Wyatt isn't some Kenny Clark situation. Clark wasn't even able to legally drink before he started playing in the NFL in 2016.

Wyatt will be 25 years old in March. He might get better but his ceiling is probably not as high. One of the positives for him was that he was physically more mature than most draftees and more NFL ready on Day 1.

Wyatt is only about 2.5 years younger than Kenny Clark.

Last edited by MichiganPacker
@ammo posted:

Well, the SEC is good but it ain't the NFL. His age shouldn't make much difference, it is NFL experience that is more important.  Wyatt doesn't have that yet.

Yup, need to plug him in, get some experience while getting evaluated.  

See what he’s got.

it is interesting to revisit gutey's picks.  before this year, really the only question (and its a big one) is picking 10.  otherwise, my only beef with gutey is that he sometimes wants to be (but I will concede, we have no idea his criteria for making picks) the smartest guy in the room.  If there is a pick that we all see from all sources (again, means nothing) as being a slam dunk (means nothing) - he will choose the ted thompson approach and pick a dude who NOBODY heard of, to almost 'buck' the trend and come at it with 'I'll show these guys' approach...I get it, height, weight, ras, blah blah, sometimes the best answer is the one right in front of you...

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