It's Gonna Happen

I’m trying to think of the last time where a first place team traded a legit stud like Hader at the deadline.   I can’t come up with any examples.  

If the idea was to not pay him around 15M in his last arbitration year (2023) then why not deal him prior to this season?   Clearly his value would have been higher as there would have been more suitors and it’s obvious the deal this year upset momentum and morale given the abruptness of the move.

If the idea is to not pay guys then I’d say the message is being sent to Woodruff and Burnes that they might be dealt within the next year as well.  I get the economics of baseball are screwed up and teams play games with timing of call ups and service time and arbitration years.  But Woody and Burnes are literally the starting pitcher equivalent to Hader- ie 2 of the 10 best pitchers in the league.

No question the Brewers could get a kings ransom if they chose to go that route in the offseason.  If they traded one of them they’d still have the other one for 2 more years along with Peralta and Lauer and Ashby and Boxberger and Williams next year or beyond.

They are going to have to bundle Burnes or Woody with Yelich just to have a team like the Yankees or Red Sox take that contract off our hands.

Extra innings today.  2-2.

And we go to 11th inning.  3-3 after a 2 out RBI single by Adames.

Marlins fail to score in the 11th.  Renfroe,  Wong and McCutchen will be up.  Tellez or Huria   at 2nd.

On to the 12th. Still 3-3.

Lose 4-3.  Fat lady is real close now.   Unless Astros sweep Phillies it's over.   

This is over. Maybe it was never meant to be, but basically giving up at the trade deadline sealed it. I'm not talking about the Hader trade, I'm talking about not getting any offensive help.

Good knowing you 2022 Brewers this is over

Marlins are pesky.  Brewers had multiple chances yesterday and today yet shit the bed continuously.  Get some fucking bats Stearns.

Yep, not sure it’s gonna happen this year. If we can somehow keep important pitching pieces and get some quality lower cost bats, might have a chance, but Woody and Burnes will likely be too expensive to keep

Thoughts turn to 2023.  I think McCutchen will be gone. He got $8.5 million this year + his $3 million buyout from Philly.  I read where Renfroe is an ARBY 4 so if true they will work something out. 

Wong is due $10 million but has a $2 million buyout. I think he is gone.  Jace was less than $2 million this year and is an UFA.  I think they would want him back for that money.

Narvaez  got $5 million this season but Caratini is ARBY 3 so Omar may be gone but Victor returns.

I think all the starters will be back for the start of the season.  As for the bullpen, as far as I'm concerned trade Williams. He just is not a closer. Taylor Rogers is an UFA so I think he is gone too.   

Williams doesn’t have the mental makeup to be a closer.  I mean, the guy punched a wall and missed the playoffs.  Not the brightest bulb.

Still, in the right situation I think he’s very useful so I expect they keep him one more year.

In theory, most of the staff should return but if Stearns wants to really upgrade the offense he may have to deal a Burnes or Woodruff.

Deal Williams instead.

Brewers runs the last 8 games.

1 (through 7 innings)

3, 3, 1, 2, 5, 2, 1

18 runs in 8 games.

@ammo posted:

Deal Williams instead.

Are they really going to get anything for him?

What would be really nice would be for someone to take the Yelich contract off their hands. It's not going to happen, but one can always dream.

AAron Nola with a perfct game against the Astros thru 6.

@ammo posted:

AAron Nola with a perfct game against the Astros thru 6.

Jokes on them - Brewers are going to ruin their celebration by losing before he can finish his perfect game.   They'll already have clinched before it's over.   

2 singles in the 7th by the Astros and Nola is out of the game.

Brewers score 3 so far in the 9th to tie it up!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BREWERS WIN 6-5.  Score 2 in the 10th to win.  Renfroe with a homer in the 9th and game winning single in the 10th.

Brewers win it in 10 innings to stave off elimination for about 10 minutes as the Phillies are heading to the bottom of the 9th up 3-0.

Fork.

@ammo posted:

BREWERS WIN 6-5.  Score 2 in the 10th to win.  Renfroe with a homer in the 9th and game winning single in the 10th.

So you enjoyed the play Mrs. Lincoln?

Woulda coulda shoulda. They play 162 and they took it down to the final 2 games. Tough way to end for a franchise where making the playoffs is a big success.

They'll have the best record in mlb not to make the playoffs. Huge off-season of uncertainty awaits as they figure out what to do with Burnes, Woodruff and Adames

Wouldn't you know it. Astros beating Phillies 5-0. Crew up 2-0. How?  2 home runs of course. Mitchell and Urias.

@WolfPack posted:

Woulda coulda shoulda. They play 162 and they took it down to the final 2 games. Tough way to end for a franchise where making the playoffs is a big success.

They'll have the best record in mlb not to make the playoffs. Huge off-season of uncertainty awaits as they figure out what to do with Burnes, Woodruff and Adames

They claim they traded Hader (without improving the roster this year) because they want to "get as many bites of the apple" as they can. At some point, you have to go beyond nibbling. Their approach at the deadline just indicated to everyone (including their own players) that they were throwing in the towel for the year. That two-week swoon that happened right after that is the biggest reason they are not playing as a wild card. It was a disaster of a deadline for them. Maybe one day we'll hear what they were really thinking. The Hader trade in isolation didn't make sense, and it's possible it was supposed to be linked to some other moves that didn't end up happening. You make the trade and release Lemet? Why? You turn around get Rosenthal and pay him 5 million for nothing, but you can't keep Lemet around and see what he can do? Rogers is going to walk after this year. So, it's two no-sure-thing prospects for your best trade chip with two post-seasons before he can leave?

The trade for T. Rosenthal was one of the dumbest moves in Brewer history. They gave up a prospect and paid about 5 million dollars for a guy that was unlikely to ever pitch this year.

Matt Bush wasn't a bad get, but he'll be 37 years old next year.

The guess is they'll trade at least one, if not two, of the guys you've mentioned. I'd be very leery about putting a lot of money into Adames.

The best guess is they move either Burnes or Woodruff even though they have two years of control left.

Everybody should just stop saying trading Hader is what cost them a playoff berth.   Just because they went into a slump doesn' t mean it wouldn't have happened anyway if Hader still here. They had a slump in June, lost 8 in a row,  when Hader was still there. He was pitching terrible before the trade and pitched awful after the trade.  The simple reason the Brewers are not in the wildcard is failure to score runs unless a homer was involved.  How many times was there a runner at second with no outs and never got him in?  How many times was there a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs and never got him in?  How many times bases loaded and NO outs and never got a run?  Way too many times to even count.   What happened to the Craig Counsell that used to sacrafice, the CC that used to suicide squeeze, the CC that could get a batter to sac fly?

Burnes and Woodruff ain't going no where.

There are several good young outfielders in AAA that will be brought up. One will take the McCutchen role.  You may see another traded for an infielder to replace Wong, That's about $18 million off the salary right there.  Lots of time to wheel and deal before  spring training.

@MichiganPacker posted:

You make the trade and release Lemet? Why? You turn around get Rosenthal and pay him 5 million for nothing, but you can't keep Lemet around and see what he can do?

This was the biggest head scratcher

Brewers did not pay Rosenthal $5 million.  The actual cost to the Brewers was $296,700.   That was good deal if his hammy got better.   

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/mi...vor-rosenthal-11478/

Burnes and Woodruff aren’t going nowhere?  You want to put money on that?  

Some of us speculated for the last year or so that Hader would be dealt.  Why?  As good as Hader is, there is no way ownership was going to pay him arbitration level pay beyond the 2022 season.  

The failure to me wasn’t trading Hader.  The failure was timing of the move which influenced what (little) they got back in return.  There were rumors after last offseason about dealing him to LA or San Diego when his value was highest.  Yet it’s almost like they panicked and took whatever they could get because they had no other choice and at the worst possible time he goes into a slump.

Absolutely the move impacted chemistry but it’s unreal that they couldn’t get at least one reliable bat in return for him.  

Attanasio is much better owner than that cheap ass Bud Selig ever was, but at some point he needs to pony up and pay some of these guys.   Burnes and Woodruff signed long term give them a 5+ year window of being really good but I doubt they extend both guys.  I’d be shocked if they extended either of them.

If that’s the case, they absolutely need to trade after the season is over to get maximum value value in return and not make the same mistake over again.

@ammo posted:

Brewers did not pay Rosenthal $5 million.  The actual cost to the Brewers was $296,700.   That was good deal if his hammy got better.   

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/mi...vor-rosenthal-11478/

I read that they did here. Obviously, this blogger could be wrong.

https://reviewingthebrew.com/2...d-stearns-ever-made/

@ammo posted:

Everybody should just stop saying trading Hader is what cost them a playoff berth.   Just because they went into a slump doesn' t mean it wouldn't have happened anyway if Hader still here. They had a slump in June, lost 8 in a row,  when Hader was still there. He was pitching terrible before the trade and pitched awful after the trade.  The simple reason the Brewers are not in the wildcard is failure to score runs unless a homer was involved.  How many times was there a runner at second with no outs and never got him in?  How many times was there a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs and never got him in?  How many times bases loaded and NO outs and never got a run?  Way too many times to even count.   What happened to the Craig Counsell that used to sacrafice, the CC that used to suicide squeeze, the CC that could get a batter to sac fly?

Burnes and Woodruff ain't going no where.

There are several good young outfielders in AAA that will be brought up. One will take the McCutchen role.  You may see another traded for an infielder to replace Wong, That's about $18 million off the salary right there.  Lots of time to wheel and deal before  spring training.

I'm not saying the Hader trade by itself cost them a playoff spot. The combination of moves they made at the deadline and the response in the clubhouse played a role. When you have multiple players being interviewed (Williams, Lauer) that indicated they thought the team had given up on the season, it's not surprising they had a slump around that time.

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2...e-brewers-leadership

I actually commented on this site that in many ways it made sense to trade Hader and get some offense back. They had ways to compensate in the bullpen without Hader. As you said above, they didn't have enough consistent offense. The return they got (another slumping reliever and two prospects that weren't even in the top 5 prospects the Padres had - those went to the Nationals in the Soto trade) was puzzling.

In the end, the biggest factor wasn't the Hader trade. It was as simple as what happened with Yelich and Hiura.

In 2019, Keston Hiura's OPS was 938 and Yelich's was 1100. Hiura's WAR for half the season was 1.9. Yelich's that year was 7.0. If you project Hiura's WAR out to a full year, that means it they repeat those seasons, you get about 11 WAR per season.

Now you can't expect Yelich to basically be Mike Trout every year like he was in 2018-19, but you could project a 28-29 year old MVP would at least be an all-star for the next 3-4 years. Hiura was a first-year player, so you wouldn't think he'd regress much (in fact, you'd expect him to get better).

Instead, in 2022 Yelich had an OPS of 740 and a WAR of 2.9. Hiura ranges from being Rob Deer to being almost unplayable at this point. His OPS is 756 and his WAR is 0.7.  

From a WAR of 11.0 to a WAR of just under 4 for those 2. That's the difference between 85 wins and 92 wins even if don't account for the effects it has on the guys hitting ahead of them and behind them (better pitches, runners on base when you are at the plate, etc.).

Those were supposed to be your 3 and 4 hitters for the next 5 years and be perennial all-stars. Instead, we ended up with a 26 million dollar version of Kevin Seitzer and Rob Deer.

Sigh

seitzer and deer were two of my favorites

@"We"-Ka-Bong posted:

Sigh

seitzer and deer were two of my favorites

I liked them too (especially on Easter Sunday in 1987). If they are complementary players for you, it's a good thing. If they are supposed to be your two best hitters, you start to have problems.

I know the Crew was eliminated Monday night, but I’m curious that the MLB app wild card picture still shows them with a magic number of 1 to be eliminated. Probably a typo that didn’t take head to head tiebreakers into consideration. Thought for a minute they might be up for a one game playoff against Philly should Milwaukee win their last game and Philly lose. Back in 2018, were the Brewers and Cubs even with head to head, forcing game 163?

The season was really lost when the Phillies swept them in 3 games back in June all at home.  One of those games was when Hader gave up 2 homers in the 9th. That 8 game losing streak I mentioned above also included losing 3 in a row to Padres at AFF.   In those 6 games they were outscored 38-9!!!  After those 6 games they also lost 2 in a row at Nats, the worst team in MLB,  being out scored 19-11.   You want to point a finger as to why the Crew is not in the playoffs, there it is.  Yep, Hader really helped them in those 8 games.

@Brewcrew posted:

I know the Crew was eliminated Monday night, but I’m curious that the MLB app wild card picture still shows them with a magic number of 1 to be eliminated. Probably a typo that didn’t take head to head tiebreakers into consideration. Thought for a minute they might be up for a one game playoff against Philly should Milwaukee win their last game and Philly lose. Back in 2018, were the Brewers and Cubs even with head to head, forcing game 163?

I believe they have additional tie breakers now to eliminate game 163 but I'm not sure if that's for division, wild card or both?

Burnes gets pulled after 3 innings today and ends the season with 243 strikeouts in 202 innings and 0.965 WHIP. He'll probably go from 6 million this year to making 12-14 million next year. That means we might have seen the last of Burnes as a Brewer today.

MLB has done away with having a game 163. Now its done by head to head matchup record to determine the tie breaker. If that is also a tie then it goes to intradivison record. It keeps going beyond that if necessary until a tie break is determined. The Phillies record against the Crew in the regular season was 4-2 so that was the tie breaker for the #3 wildcard spot.