Mike McCarthy-how much longer will he get?

lambeausouthMember

The ultimate goal of the Green Bay Packers each year is to win the Super Bowl. No Packer fan will disagree with this statement. The Packers are not the Detroit Lions, or the Arizona Cardinals. We have won before, and the expectations from Packer fans and shareholders alike is that we will win again. That being said, our head coach is Mike McCarthy, and this is his fifth season running the Packers. If we win the last two games, we're in the playoffs, so this discussion will come with an asterisk...for now.

It was said in another thread that I was wrong to use Vince Lombardi as the litmus test for coaching success in Green Bay. Actually, I'd compared Lombardi and Holmgren against McCarthy to this point in their coaching careers, but it's a valid point. So, I started thinking. Of all the coaches that have won the Super Bowl, how long did it take them to get there? At what point in their tenure did they achieve this ultimate success??

I opened the list of Super Bowl Champions, and went back 30 years, basically the period of time I have been watching the NFL. Maybe this means something, maybe not, but it should make for some interesting discussion, and give us all a little to think about. With only one exception, every Super Bowl winning coach in the last 30 years have taken the Lombardi trophy home by their fifth season in charge. The one exception? Bill Cowher, who won the World Championship in his 14th season as head coach. The Steelers were, however, AFC Champions by his 4th season, losing the Super Bowl to Dallas.

Let's look at the Super Bowl Champs since 1980. I'll provide the team name, the head coach, and how many seasons that head coach had been running the team when they first won it all.

2009 New Orleans Saints (Sean Peyton, won in 4th season)
2008 Pittsburgh Steelers (Mike Tomlin, won in 2nd season)
2007 New York Giants (Tom Coughlin, won in 4th season)
2006 Indianapolis Colts (Tony Dungy, won in 5th season)
2005 Pittsburgh Steelers (Bill Cowher, won in 14th season)
2004 New England Patriots (Bill Belichick, won in 2nd season)
2003 New England Patriots (Bill Belichick, won in 2nd season)
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Jon Gruden, won in 1st season)
2001 New England Patriots (Bill Belichick, won in 2nd season)
2000 Baltimore Ravens (Brian Billick, won in 2nd season)
1999 St. Louis Rams (Dick Vermeil, won in 3rd season)
1998 Denver Broncos (Mike Shanahan, won in 3rd season)
1997 Denver Broncos (Mike Shanahan, won in 3rd season)
1996 Green Bay Packers (Mike Holmgren, won in 5th season)
1995 Dallas Cowboys (Barry Switzer, won in 2nd season)
1994 San Francisco 49ers (George Seifert, won in 1st season)
1993 Dallas Cowboys (Jimmy Johnson, won in 4th season)
1992 Dallas Cowboys (Jimmy Johnson, won in 4th season)
1991 Washington Redskins (Joe Gibbs, won in 2nd season)
1990 New York Giants (Bill Parcells, win in 4th season)
1989 San Francisco 49ers (George Seifert, won in 1st season)
1988 San Francisco 49ers (Bill Walsh, won in 3rd season)
1987 Washington Redskins (Joe Gibbs, won in 2nd season)
1986 New York Giants (Bill Parcells, won in 4th season)
1985 Chicago Bears (Mike Ditka, won in 4th season)
1984 San Francisco 49ers (Bill Walsh, won in 3rd season)
1983 Oakland Raiders (Tom Flores, won in 2nd season)
1982 Washington Redskins (Joe Gibbs, won in 2nd season)
1981 San Francisco 49ers (Bill Walsh, won in 3rd season)
1980 Oakland Raiders (Tom Flores, won in 2nd season)

Now, there are certain anomalies that are obvious. Super Bowls won by Barry Switzer, Mike Tomlin and George Seifert were due in large part to the teams that Jimmy Johnson, Bill Cowher and Bill Walsh had built. Of that threesome, only Seifert won another Super Bowl.

So, the point of this discussion. Mike McCarthy has been head coach five seasons, and unless he wins the Super Bowl this season, he would fail to live up to the timeline of previous Super Bowl winning coaches of the last three decades (again, with Cowher as the exception). This is, I believe, an interesting analysis of just how the team is or is not progressing under his leadership. Now, is it possible that if given additional seasons, McCarthy could still win it all? Of course. But right now, in his fifth season, he has a lone playoff game win (with this year's playoffs left to be played). Should he fail to win a playoff game this season, are Ted Thompson and the fans of the Packers realistically going to provide him additional time to achieve his goals? Or is it time to consider alternate coaching candidates.

This is food for thought, nothing more. Super Bowl champions are built over time via the draft, trades, etc. Is McCarthy on the right track? Are the Packers showing the necessary progress under his leadership that you feel will lead to a Super Bowl victory?

12/20/1010:47 AM

Original Post

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GoallineLarge Antenna

2 days tops.

12/20/1011:03 AM

BorisPerson Man Camera Dildo Shop - NFLFU®

Yes.

12/20/1011:04 AM

chickenboyTic Toc

Maybe say thanks to M3 and bring in Gruden to take over his sloppy seconds, clean up their act and win the bowl.

12/20/1011:05 AM

TDMember

Gruden? He was such an offensive genius in Tampa, no?

12/20/1011:08 AM

lambeausouthMember

quote:
Originally posted by Boris:
Yes.

How many more years are you willing to give McCarthy to win it all? If you were the GM, is there a timeline you have in mind, Boris?

12/20/1011:08 AM

pablopackerfanMember

I think ya gotta give him 14 like Cowher.

12/20/1011:11 AM

johnnie grayMember

if they do not make the playoffs this year, i will have seen enough.

for whatever reason, mccarthy cannot seem to win close games. 6 losses this year, all by 4 points or less, and two in overtime.

like bart starr said, the true measure of performance is what you do when it's all on the line. mccarthy has not been able to get his players to perform in the clutch.

he's a decent coach, but not a championship coach.

12/20/1011:12 AM

TDMember

quote:
if they do not make the playoffs this year, i will have seen enough.

Really?

Starting halfback out.
Pro Bowl TE out.
Half the defense hurt.
In every game.

I am not a MM homer, but for Pete's sake come up with a better argument than what you did.

Sure the 6 losses by 20 points hurt but Sherman's teams got run over by 20 and 30 points not too mention the biggest choke, screwup in the 2000 millenium at Philly.

12/20/1011:15 AM

lambeausouthMember

Yes, Sherman had brain farts. All coaches this side of Lombardi do. And Sherman was dismissed after 6 years because of a 4-12 season where Favre threw 29 picks, and our #1 running back was Samkon Gado. Sherman had gone 44-20 the 4 seasons prior.

If given a healthy team next year, do you think McCarthy takes Green Bay to the Super Bowl? That's the question that needs to be asked. We have Super Bowl talent, is our head coach up to the task?

12/20/1011:20 AM

packerboiI lick rainbows

quote:
Originally posted by lambeausouth:
How many more years are you willing to give McCarthy to win it all? If you were the GM, is there a timeline you have in mind, Boris?

Show me how many SB winning HC's had an injury list like this the year they won it:

Barnett, Nick - LB
Bell, Josh - CB
Burnett, Morgan - S
Chillar, Brandon - LB
Finley, Jermichael - TE
Grant, Ryan - RB
Harrell, Justin - DE
Havner, Spencer - TE
Jones, Brad - LB
Martin, Derrick - S
Neal, Mike - DE
Poppinga, Brady - LB
Smith, Anthony - S
Tauscher, Mark - T

Now add your blue chip QB missing 2 games (he plays against the Lions, we win) and you're blue chip All-Pro OLB missing 2 other games.

I don't know what is the difficulty that fans can't grasp this. Some of you are acting as if this is just like any other year when it comes to injuries.

Nearly 1/3rd of your roster is either on IR or has missed key starts.

That is not like any other year. That is so far beyond "injury riddled" there is simply no term that gives it justice when it comes to how many players have gotten hurt this season.

Let's stop bringing up stats from 30 years ago and pretend like their relevant in 2010 and how Super Bowls were won. It's a completely different game today and what won it in 1980 or even worse when Lombardi existed is totally irrelevant.

A slew of injuries that is simply unpresedented. And yet this team is 8-6 and controls their own playoff destiny.

Enjoy the ride the next 2 games. MM isn't going anywhere.

12/20/1011:20 AM

IL_Pack_FanMember

I get the point you're trying to make, but you've managed to ignore prior head coaching gigs Gruden, Dungy and Belicheck held for 3, 4 and 5 years respectively.

Throwing out a handful of joke franchises, there reasonably 24 teams competing for the trophy every year. It is not an easy task and requires a perfect combination of talent, coaching, health and a few breaks.

I can't say for certain that MM is the man to bring a title back to Green Bay. I have seen his flaws as clearly as others, and don't know if these are areas he can or will correct. But you certainly don't can a coach based on some arbitrary time table. Gutting a coaching staff takes time to recover from, so you only make that change if you feel your coach will never get it done, not because he won't get it done in your made up time frame.

12/20/1011:22 AM

CUPackFanMember

While MM has his shortcomings, I don't see any coach out there that is better. Cowher won 1 Super Bowl in 15 years for what you would also call a proud franchise that deserves more Super Bowl wins. In reading you post, that would be unacceptable. Gruden was fired by the Bucs and even though he did win a Super Bowl, it was with Dungy's team (similar to how Switzer won with JJ's team). Also, I've heard Gruden is very happy with where he is. Not sure he even wants to come back into coaching.

Firing MM now would remind me of another coach firing incident: Nebraska firing Solich. Solich clearly wasn't going to get Nebraska to the nation championship, so the team fired him after a 9-3 season. Nebraska was then turned down by there top 2-3 interview candidates because, IMO, no coach wants a job where 9-3 is considered a firable offense. They settled on Bill Callahan and rest is history. Same thing happened in San Diego with Schottenheimer, and they settled on hiring Norv Turner.

It's not as simple as firing a coach and hiring a new guy. The new guy often looks at how the old coach was treated. If the Packers make the playoffs and TT fires MM, what well-respected coach takes this job, knowing that just making the playoffs can get you fired?

Also, we forget the good things MM has done. He's put the right pieces in place on defense and let them do their thing. He's developed a pro bowl QB and seems to have done a great job with Flynn. He's developed a hell of a WR/TE group (when healthy). Without MM, I doubt Rodgers, Jennings and Finley become who they are today.

12/20/1011:28 AM

artisMember

quote:
Originally posted by TD:
quote:
if they do not make the playoffs this year, i will have seen enough.

Really?

Starting halfback out.
Pro Bowl TE out.
Half the defense hurt.
In every game.

I am not a MM homer, but for Pete's sake come up with a better argument than what you did.

Sure the 6 losses by 20 points hurt but Sherman's teams got run over by 20 and 30 points not too mention the biggest choke, screwup in the 2000 millenium at Philly.

They came out in week 1 and pretty much buried the Eagles on the road. Vick made the impressive comeback, but by that point Grant had been hurt, and I'm not sure who else(?). But in the first 3 qtrs of that game the offense pretty much put on a clinic, and the D was aggressive and getting after people. This is what I expected of them coming into the season, and this is how I believe it would have played out for the most part had they had any semblance of health on the roster this season.

McCarthy does need to be held accountable on certain fronts, but at the same time, if you look at the obstacles they had to overcome, self inflicted and otherwise, this team has shown a ton of sack in 14 games. IMO that alone gives TT and MM some breathing room. Also, I believe any HC who loses so many vital parts to the 53 he had in place for opening week deserves the opportunity to get as many of those 53 healthy as possible- otherwise in reality he wasn't playing with the deck he and the GM assembled.

This team in my estimation has the mentality it needs to make a big run. Whether they have enough healthy bodies this year is a huge question mark, but if we figure Finley, Grant and others being in the mix next year- I think MM gets next year to watch it all come together, or fall on his ass. Either way I like this team, and I like the way the give everything given the adversity they face. Like it or not, some of that does come from their head coach.

12/20/1011:29 AM

lambeausouthMember

But aren't many of us already calling for at least a few of his coaches to be fired? Slocum, Campen...others?? Do we really expect that next year, these guys won't return? McCarthy is ultimately accountable for his staff, and in at least two areas, they are failing miserably.

How do we compel McCarthy to make these changes. Do we find somebody else to call plays?

12/20/1011:29 AM

Scott44Member

He deserves atleast a year where there isnt so many injuries. Now would be very unfair to him to fire him at this point. Lets remember he was one TOGs interception away from getting to the superbowl. Giv ethe man a legitimte shot at this thing. he atleast deserves ht.

12/20/1011:31 AM

TDMember

Mike Holmgren's record in "close" games meaning 4 point wins/losses or less - 10-12.

While it's a difference, Holmgren's teams weren't exactly "finishers" at the end either.

12/20/1011:31 AM

johnnie grayMember

are you really saying that the loss of derick martin, anthony smith, brad jones and spencer havner have cost this teams wins?

other than grant and finley, the injuries have not siginificantly impacted the team's ability to perform.

in fact, as several posters have noted on this board, the defense has played better since barnett was lost.

most of the other guys were role players who were easily replaced. in fact, neal may have been the biggest loss after grant and finley.

injuries cannot explain the inexplicable losses to washington, miami, the bears and detroit. the packers are significantly better than all four of those teams, injuries or not.

12/20/1011:35 AM

Tequila_MonsterMember

Jeff Fischer?

12/20/1011:35 AM

packerboiI lick rainbows

quote:
Originally posted by lambeausouth:
But aren't many of us already calling for at least a few of his coaches to be fired? Slocum, Campen...others??

Firing assts wasn't the point of your thread.

Now you're changing the argument. The title of your thread is Mike McCarthy how much longer does he get?

The assts are a different topic and for the record MM has shown he can and will fire assts (see Bob Sanders) and will replace them with competant ones (see Dom Capers).

Changing HC's is a MASSIVE change. It has huge ramifications and means a crap ton of asst coaches go with him. Damn good ones like Edgar Bennet, Kevin Greene, Robinson, Tom Clements, and maybe even Capers.

Because I'll tell you this. If MM was to be fired after this M*A*S*H Unit of a season AND makes the playoffs doing it, another NFL team will be salivating at picking him up in heartbeat. Mmmmmmm....the Vikings come to mind.

And where do you think all of his asst's will go? Ding ding ding. That's right. Right out the f-ing door with him.

12/20/1011:37 AM

TDMember

quote:
the injuries have not siginificantly impacted the team's ability to perform.

Brad Jones is a SIGNIFICANT loss. He would've been covering the TE's and was superb last year. So are you going to ignore that? Or Cullen Jenkins playing with one arm and now out? What about Matthews?

12/20/1011:38 AM

pablopackerfanMember

quote:
the injuries have not siginificantly impacted the team's ability to perform.

If that's true, it would have to be because of coaching.

12/20/1011:41 AM

Scott44Member

Im saying the loss of Ryan Grant and Jeramichael Finley is killer on offense. Brad jones and Cullen Jenkins being out of defense hurts. Its hard to finish with guys you have to bring in from the street.

12/20/1011:41 AM

IL_Pack_FanMember

quote:
Originally posted by johnnie gray:
injuries cannot explain the inexplicable losses to washington, miami, the bears and detroit. the packers are significantly better than all four of those teams, injuries or not.

Actually, WAS was lost when CM3 went out in the 4th and MIA was lost without him active. Detroit was really a head scratcher, but I don't think anyone on this board doesn't think Rodgers would have scored at least 7 points in the second half.

In spite of some really crippling injuries, the team is 8-2 in games where Rodgers and Matthews, the best players on offense and defense, play 4 quarters. The two losses were road games against playoff teams with massive ST bed ****tings each.

12/20/1011:42 AM

packerboiI lick rainbows

quote:
Originally posted by johnnie gray:
other than grant and finley, the injuries have not siginificantly impacted the team's ability to perform.

You have got to be kidding.

Clay Matthews plays the 2nd half the Redskins game and in a game where he was causing McNabb to run for his life, we win that overtime with him.

Following week, Matthews is again out against Miami and we can't generate a pass rush to save our lives. Another overtime game. We'll win that one as well with Matthews in all probability.

Rodgers is out the 2nd half of the Lions game. He plays that 2nd half and in a game decided by 4 points, it's another win.

Last night? If Rodgers coordinates that final drive, Ill promise you no brain farts occur on the final 21 seconds. Plus he more then likely doesnt throw the pick 6 Flynn did.

That's MORE THEN likely 4 wins. The team goes from 8-6 to 12-2.

That Grant and Finley were the only injuries that mattered is one of the dumbest things I've seen posted.

12/20/1011:43 AM

johnnie grayMember

zombo has played better that brad jones did last year.

jenkins has missed some time, but not the whole season. evey team in the league has injuries. it is part of the game. you either overcome it and win, or you wallow in self pity. even with all the injuries, this team is still more talented that four of the six teams they lost to. no excuse.

12/20/1011:43 AM

lambeausouthMember

quote:
Originally posted by packerboi:
quote:
Originally posted by lambeausouth:
But aren't many of us already calling for at least a few of his coaches to be fired? Slocum, Campen...others??

Firing assts wasn't the point of your thread.

Now you're changing the argument. The title of your thread is Mike McCarthy how much longer does he get?

The assts are a different topic and for the record MM has shown he can and will fire assts (see Bob Sanders) and will replace them with competant ones (see Dom Capers).

Changing HC's is a MASSIVE change. It has huge ramifications and means a crap ton of asst coaches go with him. Damn good ones like Edgar Bennet, Kevin Greene, Robinson, Tom Clements, and maybe even Capers.

Because I'll tell you this. If MM was to be fired after this M*A*S*H Unit of a season AND makes the playoffs doing it, another NFL team will be salivating at picking him up in heartbeat. Mmmmmmm....the Vikings come to mind.

And where do you think all of his asst's will go? Ding ding ding. That's right. Right out the f-ing door with him.

You're right, the original question was how long does McCarthy get. After reading the posts from many who support giving him more time, I'm inquiring about how we correct some of the glaring weaknesses in his staff.

12/20/1011:45 AM

pablopackerfanMember

quote:
The ultimate goal of the Green Bay Packers each year is to win the Super Bowl.

I don't buy it. I'm almost positive it's to piss off half the posters on this board. Period.

12/20/1011:45 AM

johnnie grayMember

[[/QUOTE]

Clay Matthews plays the 2nd half the Redskins game and in a game where he was causing McNabb to run for his life, we win that overtime with him.

Following week, Matthews is again out against Miami and we can't generate a pass rush to save our lives. Another overtime game. We'll win that one as well with Matthews in all probability.

[/QUOTE]

one guy missing five quarters is the sole cause of two losses to inferior teams? please.

12/20/1011:46 AM

TdogProspective Member

I have some problems with MM, most notably his 2 minute time management. They practice it all the time but they sure don't seem to get their money's worth. And his play calling and/or scheme some times...

But now is not the time. I'll give him another year easy. He has kept these guys playing as a team through the worst triage I've ever seen for a football team.

12/20/1011:46 AM

pablopackerfanMember

quote:
I'm inquiring about how we correct some of the glaring weaknesses in his staff.

It'll look like an accident.

12/20/1011:47 AM

packerboiI lick rainbows

quote:
Originally posted by johnnie gray:
jenkins has missed some time, but not the whole season. evey team in the league has injuries.

Every team in the league does not sustain a 1/3rd of their roster going on IR plus their blue chip players missing key games.

Honestly quit while you're behind. Because no one who has an understanding of this game is played today and how vital team health is would believe what your posting.

This is nothing like "any injury" year an NFL team has sustained and yet controls their playoff destiny.

12/20/1011:48 AM

artisMember

quote:
Originally posted by johnnie gray:
are you really saying that the loss of derick martin, anthony smith, brad jones and spencer havner have cost this teams wins?

other than grant and finley, the injuries have not siginificantly impacted the team's ability to perform.

most of the other guys were role players who were easily replaced. in fact, neal may have been the biggest loss after grant and finley.

injuries cannot explain the inexplicable losses to washington, miami, the bears and detroit. the packers are significantly better than all four of those teams, injuries or not.

Depth on this team was decimated week by week, on offense, defense and special teams. When you talk about an offense getting into a rhythm, the same goes for the other units as well. If we didn't see a significant dropoff in certain areas, I'd have to attribute some of that to coaching and personnel having a good idea of what they were doing. I also don't agree with players being easily replaced. The fact is any time a guy goes down it may affect more than one unit on the team, which hampers not only performance but affects time spent on the field ie Pickett, Jenkins, Raji getting gassed due to lack of bodies, or guys like Bishop who were important on special teams but now have to step into the starting role on defense.

Those losses aren't that inexplicable- there were definite plays you could point to in nearly every loss that had a great effect on the outcome. Some of it was coaching, some of it performance. Not giving McCarthy a clean slate on those losses, and not excusing the performance, but I think it needs to be stated that tweaking the roster each and every week is not a thing you expect to have to do, nor does it make for any type of rhythm a team needs to get on a roll during the course of a season.

12/20/1011:49 AM

TDMember

quote:
Originally posted by johnnie gray:
zombo has played better that brad jones did last year.

Not even close. Brad Jones is 5 x's better than Zombo is coverage. He also failed on a huge tackle vs Atlanta.

5 quarters of Matthews?

He missed the whole second half vs the Skins and OT plus the Phin game.

quote:
jenkins has missed some time, but not the whole season.

Jenkins was hurt the eagle game then played with a cast for what 8 weeks? He then detroyed the Niners alone. Make up the fantasy all you want.

quote:
one guy missing five quarters is the sole cause of two losses to inferior teams? please.

Just like the inferior Browns clobbering the Pats? And that inferior Phins team has 6 road wins. Come back from HeadintheArse land.

12/20/1011:49 AM

lambeausouthMember

Well, Packerboi and I do agree on that. Even if it's not a starter that's going out, its a team's depth that suffers, and that's huge. Because it means the front line players are being forced to play more than they would normally. And that makes the top line guys less effective. It all trickles down.

Look at the Colts. They were fighting for their playoff lives this weekend, a team that's won at least 12 games like 8 years in a row. Manning is still there, but the players around him, offensive line, receiver and running back, have been a revolving door. Their record isn't what it would be with all those guys healthy, either.

12/20/1011:50 AM

johnnie grayMember

to say 1/3 of the roster is on ir is gross exaggeration, to say the least. more than half the guys on ir are fringe players, and a few more were marginal starters.

12/20/1011:52 AM

TdogProspective Member

I'll even argue that the loss of Derrick Martin was quite big. He had become a STs demon this year.

12/20/1011:52 AM

lambeausouthMember

Well, the discussion is off and running.

12/20/1011:55 AM

MaynardPathetic, an embarrassment to true Packer fans

I was "done" with MM last night, but after sleeping, I don't know that canning him is the answer. I am just mystified how a QB guru cannot have his backup adequately prepared with plays for the situation that occured on the final drive. The offense was standing around like they had no idea what to do. I can't put that all on Flynn, given it was his first start. MM has to be better than that in that situation--put his backup QB in position to win. You need to have a few plays called in case you don't get the firstdown and be lined up ready to go, not waiting on the refs.

That, and the pathetic chuck it long play-calling. Just move the damn chains!

He needs someone else to handle the offensive play-calling duties so he can just focus on the team as a whole.

12/20/1011:57 AM

TDMember

quote:
Originally posted by johnnie gray:
to say 1/3 of the roster is on ir is gross exaggeration, to say the least. more than half the guys on ir are fringe players, and a few more were marginal starters.

Grant - Starting RB
Finley - Starting TE
Tauscher - Starting RT

Nick Barnett - Starting ILB
Brad Jones - Starting ROLB
Morgan Burnett - Starting SS
Cullen Jenkins - Starting DE
Mike Neal - First backup DE
Justin Harrell - Backup DE
Zombo - backup to Jones

Guys missing games -
Matthews - 1 1/2 games
Rodgers - 1 1/2 games
Donald Lee - a couple games +
Ryan Pickett - redskins Plus
Colledge - out last week
Plus different other injuries

Yep, johnnie you got er done. The best part is calling them marginal but somehow MM should win with those replacing "marginal" starters. Way to make your argument stand as strong as the MetroDome.

12/20/1011:59 AM

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