Mike Silver: Seahawks will win it all!

I think Seattle will be what they were last year, good, but not quite good enough to win the NFC.

 

One team I will keep an eye on is the Saints.  That team looks pissed and ready to make up for a lost season.

The spread option is the flavor of the week. The problem with it is it really exposes your QB to take some big hits. If your QB has to sit out a couple of games with a concussion or something, the backup probably isn't that type of QB. At least with a more conventional style offense, the chances are your backup probably comes from that style and gives you a chance to win until your starter gets back. I think teams will figure out that the way to stop the spread is to hit the QB every time, on every play. Running backs have short careers for a reason. They get pounded on. I think this will begin to happen to the spread option QB.

How I hope and pray that it will be just that.

It will, but only if the refs start treating QBs like the running backs they are in the spread. If they keep treating them with kid gloves, the option may stick around for a while longer than it deserves. 

The Wildcat was hot and the Dolphins found some success, then Bill Belichick and others studied it and destroyed it. Tim Tebow took his team to the playoffs with a Read Option offense and then it got shut down in the playoffs. Kaepernick adds a new element to the problem, he can pass. Unfortunately, the option has been around for a LONG time and there's a reason it hasn't caught on in the NFL. It can't just be that NFL coaches refuse to change or are scared of change because there have always been rebels and if it was worthwhile then it would have already been tried. Here's your wildcard team who will layout the blueprint for shutting Kaepernick down: St. Louis. Not only did they stifle San Fran last year, they added Kaepernick's college coach and inventor of the Pistol offense, Chris Ault, to their staff. I think he will give them a huge advantage and really expose Kaepernick.

On the other side of the argument is that at no other time in NFL history has the league attempted to "decontact" the game. Very few concussions in the preseason, which tells me that players are more aware of fines & suspensions. QB's even as runners are going to take fewer "head shots" than in the past. I don't think that running your QB 15 times a game will become the norm, but I still think there is a place for it. Running the ball is a numbers game (offense tries to get as many or more blockers than defense has in the play) & the advantage of running the QB is that it gives you one more blocker. I see more danger in these guys running out of the pocket. If you play man-to-man coverage, the QB sees every pass defenders head turned & can pull it down, run & the defenders don't even realize it until he is past the line of scrimmage. If you "spy" him, you take one guy out of coverage, & put a lot of pressure on that defender to contain a great athlete in the open field. I think these guys are more difficult to defend because unlike the "Wildcat", they can run out of the same personnel & formations that is their typical offense, so it is much less predictable than the WC. 

The problem with that is that they won't "decontact" the NFL unless they move to flag football. Can't hit the head? Okay then they're going to hit the legs. We've already seen that this offseason with Dustin Keller, that Safety admitted he went low out of fear that he would get a major fine for going near the head. There are, however, rules about hitting the QB low when he's in the pocket and there are rules about how and when you can hit receivers, so it doesn't make sense to run your QB on purpose anymore (unless you don't care if he gets his knee blowed up). I think Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll are going to figure this out pretty quick and we will see Kaepernick and Seneca Wilson evolve into pocket passers (if you believe in evolution of course). Sure, these guys will run the ball like every mobile QB has done since the NFL was started, but I don't think specific QB draws or option plays will be used with any frequency after this season. 

I don't get the doubters on the Bengals. Very good defense, rush the passer as well as any team, Added some spark on offense with Eifert and Bernard and love him or hate him but Dalton is a winner. 2 seasons in the league and 2 playoff appearances.

 

Don't take this team lightly. They are young, good, big, fast and tough and are going to be dangerous. They can beat anyone.

 

Yes the Bengals have made the playoffs, but don't get too carried away with Dalton. Sure he improved from the season before, but he didn't have that good of the season. He still threw 16 INTs to only 27 TDs. Their OLine gave up 46 sack and while Green-Ellis rushed for over 1,000, he did it with only a 3.9 ypc average. It's not like they're a pass first team either, they're a balanced offense that doesn't seem to be really good in any category. Their offense was in the bottom half of the league in a lot of categories. And yeah they helped themselves with some offensive firepower, but I still don't see them as an elite team. I think they'll make the playoffs again, with another early exit.