Mora 2020 Playoff Thread

Why would a Seattle game be revenge?

I'm starting to think a shitty weather HFA might benefit the defense by the smallest fraction, keeping RBs from running wild.  The offense may be blistering in a dome but even if it comes down a notch it due to weather should be good enough.

Lets talk tie breakers. 

Currently we are competing with NOLA, SEA, and LA Rams for the 1 seed.   

If we win out, we hold the head to head tie breaker vs NOLA and will get the bye.

If we lose to the Titans, we would need a Saints loss to the Chiefs to beat them out.  That would then bring SEA and LA into the conversation as they are both 4 loss teams. 

SEA and LA still have to play each other so one of them will be a 5 loss team.  Of the two, who are we rooting for in terms of tie breakers?   We would want to see the Rams lose because they currently only have 2 conference loses, the same as the Packers.   

If the Rams beat Sea and we lose to Titans, then the tie breaker would be common opponents, min of 4.   Assuming we beat the Bears in week 17, we would hold this tie breaker with a 4-1 record vs there 3-2. (They got swept by 49s but beat the bucs)

@Henry posted:

I'm starting to think a shitty weather HFA might benefit the defense by the smallest fraction keeping RBs from running wild.  The offense may be blistering in a dome but even if it comes down a notch it should be good enough.

I also think our kryptonite is speedy LB's.  So if you get Tampa on a slick surface, that will help overcome that speed that shut down our ground game. 

@PackerHawk posted:

Why would a Seattle game be revenge?

is there enough beatdowns of the Hags to make you feel better about gut wrenching losses to them, esp in the NFCCG?

Well congrats.  We've done it again. Do we never tire of self flagellation?

@BrainDed posted:

Lets talk tie breakers.

Currently we are competing with NOLA, SEA, and LA Rams for the 1 seed.   

If we win out, we hold the head to head tie breaker vs NOLA and will get the bye.

If we lose to the Titans, we would need a Saints loss to the Chiefs to beat them out.  That would then bring SEA and LA into the conversation as they are both 4 loss teams.

SEA and LA still have to play each other so one of them will be a 5 loss team.  Of the two, who are we rooting for in terms of tie breakers?   We would want to see the Rams lose because they currently only have 2 conference loses, the same as the Packers.   

If the Rams beat Sea and we lose to Titans, then the tie breaker would be common opponents, min of 4.   Assuming we beat the Bears in week 17, we would hold this tie breaker with a 4-1 record vs there 3-2. (They got swept by 49s but beat the bucs)

solid analysis. So GB-Tenn, NO-KC and SEA-LAR are the key games down the stretch assuming no big upsets.

The Packers to the other NFC teams after we win home field:

@PackerHawk posted:

Why would a Seattle game be revenge?

From now until the end of time the Seattle game will be about revenge because of our inability to get over a game that happened 6 years ago.

@BrainDed posted:

I also think our kryptonite is speedy LB's.  So if you get Tampa on a slick surface, that will help overcome that speed that shut down our ground game.

I personally think Tampa was just a coaching fuck up.

I don’t want to see Minnesota again and I don’t want to see Tampa. Those defenses could be a problem. I’m of mixed emotions on LAR, but I certainly don’t want to see Aaron Donald ever. I think we can defeat Goff, but that defense scares me. I’m okay with playing SEA or NO, even at their places. We match up well with both teams and I think the crowds being gone has reduced their edge a little bit. Same could be true for GB though, BUT I think the weather makes a difference. If weather stifles passing attack, I like GB’s running game vs NO or SEA absolutely. Aside from DK, our WRs are more physical at the POA and block better.

@WolfPack posted:

is there enough beatdowns of the Hags to make you feel better about gut wrenching losses to them, esp in the NFCCG?

More than 3/4 of both of those rosters are gone. Time to turn the page on that ancient shit. 

@PackerHawk posted:

More than 3/4 of both of those rosters are gone. Time to turn the page on that ancient shit.

NEVER

There wasn't a tiny part of you that watched Detroit's onside kick yesterday, noticed the new activated TE up front as a blocker, saw the ball head his way, and have a mild panic attack?

With the new rules for onside kicks, they are barely worth watching now. What was actually kind of interesting is the two biggest games of the day for Packer fans had an onside kick happening at virtually the same time and they were very similar looking plays. Both came too close to being recovered, too.

Speaking of ancient shit irrelevant to the 2020 Packers, we have had two 4th and 26 plays this year on defense. Both ended up being stops. It's all in the past...

If we beat the Panthers and the Chiefs beat the Saints, that potentially gives us a two game lead in the Top seed race, meaning beating the Titans at home despite Derrick Henry would lock up the bye.

https://projects.fivethirtyeig...020-nfl-predictions/

Our chance at the bye went up to 59%

Regarding the playoffs, the most important thing is to stay healthy.  

@BlairKiel posted:

I really want to get the bi

eh, to each his own

@YATittle posted:

If we beat the Panthers and the Chiefs beat the Saints, that potentially gives us a two game lead in the Top seed race, meaning beating the Titans at home despite Derrick Henry would lock up the bye.

We would still be a 3 loss team and either the Rams or Seattle would probably be a 4 loss team.   So while it would take the Saints out of the equation for us, a loss to Chi in Week 17 would be our 3rd conference loss.   The Rams have 2 Conference losses so if they win out and we lose to Chi, they get the bye.

If we lose to the Titans, and the Rams win out, we are both 4 loss teams  with two conference losses.   Common opponents would be next tie breaker and a win vs Chi would give us the edge.

Long story short, if we are going to lose again, the best game to lose would be vs the Titans.  As long as the Chiefs beat the Saints, we get the bye with a 12-4 mark.  Head to head vs saints, Conference rec vs Hawks and  common opponents vs Rams.

In other words, this Panther game is bigger than the Titans game.   Everyone is going to be hyped about that game because of our records, but this weeks game means a hell of a lot more to us and the Chi game will be equally important.

https://packerswire.usatoday.c...da51cbb61b721acb21b7

Go KC!!!

According to that NY Times simulator....

If the Packers blow 1 of their 2 NFC games (Panthers or Bears) beat Titans & end in a 3-way tie with Saints / Rams or Hawks at 12-4, it looks like the Saints hang onto the top seed. (Hawks / Rams play each other)

Now you know why I was so pissed the Packers lost to the Vikings.

https://www.nytimes.com/intera...7=loss&event=bye

Assuming the Saints lose to KC (Saints can certainly win) -- It's imperative the Packers win both their NFC games. The NFC Games are most important for Green Bay. Kinda weird but eff all these scenarios. Win out & leave no doubt!

Think this guy can contribute?

Patrick Taylor practices

Running back Patrick Taylor participated in his first practice Thursday after spending the season on the reserve/non-football injury list. Taylor played four years at Memphis, where he sustained a foot injury and missed the second half of his senior season.

The Packers signed Taylor as an undrafted free agent after the 2020 NFL draft. The team placed him on NFI at the start of training camp as he continued to recover from his injury.

“He’s extremely intelligent,” LaFleur said. “The notes he takes in meetings, the questions he asks and you can ask him questions about receiver routes and he’s able to answer them. He’s as detailed as a guy I’ve been around. Basically outside of that quarterback room, it’s been super impressive to be around him and to watch him learn and grow and now it’s going to be fun to get him back on the field.

“I have to go back and watch it, but I thought the energy was great and we’ll try to keep progressing him through. He’s a guy we’re definitely excited about and when you get guys that are so invested in what they’re trying to do that gives them a chance to reach their full potential. And he’s a guy I’m really high on.”

Now that Taylor has started to practice, the Packers have 21 days before they must make a roster decision on him.

Can remember where, but a few days ago I read that if GB beats Carolina and Chicago, they get the #1 seed regardless of the Titan game outcome as long as New Orleans loses against 1 more.

Didn't Boris say that?

If he did, I missed it.  

Don't you have posts to like?

@Pakrz posted:

If he did, I missed it.  

Don't you have posts to like?

It's right above yours....

@Pakrz posted:

Can remember where, but a few days ago I read that if GB beats Carolina and Chicago, they get the #1 seed regardless of the Titan game outcome as long as New Orleans loses against 1 more.

That’s correct.  

That would make us, NOLA and either Rams OR Hawks (play each other so one must have at least 5 losses) 4 loss teams.

We would hold Tie breakers over any of them in this scenario.

NOLA - head to head

Hawks - Conf win %

Rams - Common Opponent win % (they got swept by 49ers)

So we can clinch the 1 seed and the bye with a win over Tennessee and a Rams victory over Seattle

For me personally, I’d like things to play out so that Seahawks/Bucs play each other in the 1st round.  Getting either Brady or Wilson eliminated before the Pack even has to play a game would be ideal.

I agree the teams I am most concerned about are those with veteran QBs and in a one and done matchup I’d like to avoid Brady and Brees and Wilson if possible.  

The Bucs and Seahawks in R1 would be nice.  Only one can advance.  

The AFC is bananas.  Imagine you are Cleveland with the season you are having and you get to play Tennessee in R1?  Yikes.   Same with Buffalo.  You get rewarded by having to play a tough Indy team in your first playoff game.  

Not worried about any team in the NFC. If Packers play their game, they're going to the Super Bowl. That's where it gets difficult. AFC is tough but I can't see KC getting beat. However....that's why they play the games.

Rex Ryan says......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGEsbZBfdFc

I'd be interested in seeing if Vrabel comes up with anything different this time vs KC.  Titans split with IND, played PIT tough early but lost to CIN.  PIT looking like they may be too beat up again but TEN could have the best shot at KC.  BUF could beat them with some luck.  When is the last time we saw a repeat SB champ? NEP somewhere?

https://projects.fivethirtyeig...ions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

wE GOT A 79% CHANCE OF FIRST ROUND BYE

If I could plan it, id love a SB matchup with Indy.

Rams are hard to figure out, so up and down. A WAshington then LA route would be the most favorable path

@WolfPack posted:

If I could plan it, id love a SB matchup with Indy.

Rams are hard to figure out, so up and down. A WAshington then LA route would be the most favorable path

I actually think Washington might be a bad matchup for GB.  Their defense is legit, they tackle really well,  and Chase Young has energized their d-line....and a strong d-line that can generate pressure has given Rodgers and hard time this year.  I would not be concerned about their offense, but the Pack's defense can easily play down to the level of its opponent.

@YATittle posted:

https://projects.fivethirtyeig...ions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

A 62% probability of beating the Titans and a 65% probability of beating the Bears. Seems to me that gap should be a bit bigger than they have it.

Of the probable playoff teams, the Rams, Saints, Bucs, and WFT have defenses that can dominate and take over a game. They all have warts in their defensive backfields, but all have strong DLs/front 7s.
The Saints and Bucs have the veteran QBs that would make them the most dangerous matchups.
The Rams would be included in this group because of their defense, but Goff just isn't strong/consistent enough.
AZ and Murray could present big problems for the Packers defense, but there's no way their defense could defend the Pack's offense.
WFT is weak offensively and couldn't score enough to beat the Packers.

JMHOs, others may vary.