Packers 2015 FA's... what would you do?

Players and agents know the cap is going up as well.  Probably means a restructure of 12's contract is coming soon.

I think Cobb is gone (not that I want that), just that Ted won't pay more than he wants too at that position.  Cobb does want to stay though, how much is the question.  Bush wants to stay as well, I could see Ted writing a short contract that works for both parties.  I think Lattimore is just a guy, who might sign a just a guy contract or might walk.  I think Boykin is gone, even if Cobb goes elsewhere.  Everyone else is a crapshoot (all of them are a crapshoot really, that is why Ted is Ted.)

I think Ted wants Cobb to stay more than he wanted Jones and Jennings to.  He was clutch this year on 3rd down and his lining up in the backfield seemed like the only thing that could loosen up a D like BUF and DET.  Add to that that there is no one to really replace him.  Adams could but not next year.  And then we would be without a decent #3.  This offense struggled a bit because #3 was up and down and there really was no #4.  Everybody loves Janis but the kid never even suited up.   TT appreciates the value of a stocked WR corps to his QB and it would take quite a hit in losing Cobb.

If he doesn't sign Cobb, TT should leave with him. Period.

With the exception of Cobb, those I placed as retaining I believe can be done with fairly cap friendly deals. Bulaga might generate enough interest that some team overpays for him, but this is a good RT who has also missed significant amounts of time in his rookie contract. I don't think he's going to warrant a huge deal with his health issues. MM loves Barclay and Kuhn as well. Be very surprised if they leave.

Tramon is going to be a hard decision, but I think Ted opts for youth and less $$ with House.

Packerboi, Bush is going nowhere. Otherwise, I agree. However, Bulaga and Guion are getting paid, and I think we should pay them. Guion was an absolute stud at the end of the year.

You can't do better than Kuhn. He will sign for the vet minimum which makes him really cap friendly. Have to let Tramon go. The end is near for him and we are loaded with your corners.

I think Tramon Williams is being seriously underrated.  He wasn't as good as he was in 2010 but he's still a good CB and in this league, you need those guys.  I'm hoping he'll stay for a 3 year $12m contract.  I know TT likes to go young but you need veterans to win Super Bowls.  

As for the others, Cobb and Bulaga are priorities.  I'd like to see Barclay, Guion, House and T Williams resigned, as well as a flyer on Raji (should be cheap).  

Tramon is still good, but the end is near. Better to let a guy go a year too early than a year too late.

I hate to break this offensive line up. They have been so good. This was the best performing unit against the Seahawks.

Cobb signs a deal, maybe not for top dollar.  He is ony 24, so with Rodgers throwing to him for four years, he has the stats for one last career deal at 29 years old.  Better than a 4 year deal, but with some Christan Ponder type QB throwing to him.

Bulaga stays if TT isn't convinced Barclay isn't 100%.  There isn't another RT on the roster, we saw the disaster this year with Bulaga out (Sherrod), and TT would likely rather spend the few extra million on Bulaga then use a draft pick and hope the guy works out.

Guion stays if he has reasonable numbers.  Tramon stays on incentive laden deal.  Same with Raji.

With 7 draft picks, 2 compensatory picks, and 2 guys from last year stashed on IR (Abberdaris and Thorton) I can see everybody else gone because TT needs room for his draft picks and the couple of free agent rookies.

Raji traveled with the team nearly everywhere and was on the home sidelines all season and apparently even did some film review and gave some coaching style tips to younger players on D. If GB wanted little to do with him, he wouldn't have been this involved so I am pretty sure Raji is back. A one year prove it contract I could easily see happening. 

And let's not forget he was having a terrific camp. Guion shocked me and rumor was they were trying to extend him the last month of the season. He would great in rotation along with Raji

Guion's coming back too unless he decides to price himself out of the market. A. Rodgers went out of his way to say that, as a teammate, he had the presence that Johnny Jolly had in the locker room and on the field, which is high praise.

michiganjoe, if the money's right you're right on point IMO.

Rodgers: "We just have to keep it together and add to it like every year and hold onto guys we've got and we can be a dangerous team."

Rodgers: "We had an offensive line here we hadn't had in 10 years. They stayed healthy and really grew upfront. If we can keep that group together. And keep Randall and Davante making the jump that guys like Jordy Nelson made. It's always great when you can bring in veterans, too. Julius, those guys did a lot for us. Brought energy and hunger. Hopefully we can lock those guys up and bring Kuhn back. And have a better result next year."

Brad Jones returns?  I don't know about that.  Guy's got the midas touch.  Everything he touches turns to mufflers.

One of the annoyances at ILB will return, Jones is younger, faster and a better special teamer.

The biggest difference between AJ Hawk and Doug Pederson is Hawk is actually put in games.

Jones was replaced as dime LB by Barrington.  He's no Bush on special teams. He's done.

 A fast, younger special teams player is a draft pick, or a UFA. 

Why did Raji sign a 1 year deal? Because nobody wanted him at the price he demanded. Who else will want him now after being idle for a year?  Cheap signing.  

Cobb has to be the #1 priority; he has way too much talent, and he has age on his side. He would be good anywhere he goes, but he can be great in Green Bay, and he'll have another chance for a big bite at the apple in 3-4 years.

Bulaga would next highest priority. I can see a modest signing bonus and guarantee, with a low enough per year salary to make it cap-friendly. I don't think anyother team would 'overpay' for him.

Ditto for Raji. Not necessarily a priority, but we should be able to keep him for the same reasons as Bulaga.

I'd keep Guion. He'll be cheap enough, and provides some rotational depth at a position where we need some.

Lattimore is likely done, and I can't see a reason to keep him.

Tramon is a tough call. Here is where a real chance of another team overpaying for him exists. The only way he can re-sign in Green Bay is if it fits into the cap. And would likely be at substantially less salary.

Bush is similar to Kuhn as far as retention. Enough skills to warrant keeping; not enough to justify much more than vet minimum.

House may likely depend on Tramon's situation. He would be more likely to stay if Tramon is not re-signed I would think.

Boykin--see Kuhn, Bush, etc.

Barclay has a bit more value to the team, and they will find a way to keep him.

Just to make it clear, my opinions are based on NOT keeping Hawk AND Jones.

I'm guessing we go out and sign 

SJean Fanor, CB Tay Glover-Wright, LBAdrian Hubbard, C Joe Madsen, RBRajion Neal, LB Joe Thomas, TJeremy Vujnovich, G Josh Walker and WR Myles White. 

Just a guess

Brilliant E-K-B. Simply brilliant.

I originally wanted to keep Tramon Williams and Jarrett Bush, but when adding up the numbers they were the guys that got pushed off when I ran out of room.

Offers:

Randall Cobb = 4 years, 38 million, 8 million signing bonus

2015 = 4 million base + 2 million pro-rate signing bonus

2016 = 6 million base + 2 million pro-rate signing bonus

2017 = 8 million base + 2 million pro-rate signing bonus

2018 = 12 million base + 2 million pro-rate signing bonus

2015 and 2016 base salaries guaranteed, so 18 million guaranteed

first year cap number = 6 million

Bryan Bulaga = 4 years, 27 million, 4 million signing bonus

2015 = 4 million base + 1 million pro-rate signing bonus

2016 = 5 million base + 1 million pro-rate signing bonus

2017 = 6 million base + 1 million pro-rate signing bonus

2018 = 8 million base + 1 million pro-rate signing bonus

2015 and 2016 base salaries guaranteed, so 13 million guaranteed

first year cap number = 5 million

Letroy Guion = 2 years, 6 million, 2 million signing bonus

2015 = 1 million base + 1 million pro-rate signing bonus

2016 = 3 million base + 1 million pro-rate signing bonus

no guarantee past signing bonus

first year cap number = 2 million

Davon House = 2 years, 4 million, 1 million signing bonus

2015 = 1 million base + 0.5 pro-rate signing bonus

2016 = 2 million base + 0.5 pro-rate signing bonus

no guarantee past signing bonus

first year cap number = 1.5 million

Matt Flynn = 1.2 million base in 2015

John Kuhn = 1.2 million base in 2015

I'd tender Barclay with the minimum tender, I'd anticipate that would put his number at about 1.6 million.

If Tolzien is to be a plus-backup he should have been able to pass Flynn on the depth chart this year.  He did not therefore he is gone.  This would be the off-season I'd like to see the Packers use a 3rd or 4th rounder to draft and develop a solid backup and move on from Flynn,  but I don't see that many attractive candidates so Flynn is back yet again.  Raji was a big under-achiever before the injury and I'm ready to move on from him now, if someone else can get him to live up to his potential then good for them.  Lattimore showed some flashes but then got hurt...I'd plan on leaving Matthews at ILB, drafting an ILB high in the draft and add in Barrington...if the draft works out OK then I can live with that group.  I didn't tender Boykin because I'd want Cobb back but if Cobb leaves then I would tender Boykin.  As stated earlier, I'd want Tramon Williams and Jarrett Bush back but I ran out of money.

So right now the estimate is the Packers would be 25.3 million under the cap.  I'd cut A.J. Hawk (3.5 million cap savings) and Brad Jones (3.75 million cap savings) and that puts the new number at 32.55 million.

Cobb = 6

Bulaga = 5

Guion = 2

House = 1.5

Flynn = 1.2

Kuhn = 1.2

Barclay = 1.6

Total = 18.5 million

Last year the Packer rookie's combined cap number was right around 5.4 million.  I would anticipate it would be less this year because they are picking later and (to my knowledge) probably won't be getting a 3rd round compensatory selection.  I'm going to assign a 5 million total to the rookies.  That puts the free agent + rookie spending at 23.5 million.  Subtract that from the estimated 32.55 million of cap space available, leaves me sitting with right around 9 million dollars of space remaining.  So I have some money left to sign a couple lower-level free agents to fill whatever holes might still be left after the draft.

Nice work, PJ, lot to think about there.

Bulaga will get more than 4 years for $27M and $4M SB. Even with his injury history, he's young, coming off a very good season and plays a position of need for a lot of teams.

We gain some cap space by dumping Hawk and Jones.  I forget the details, Hawk might have to stick one more year but I'm positive Jones will cost very little in dead cap space.

The number one priority for the Packers this off season must be to get ride of Capers.

Now for salary cap they are about 17.5 million under the cap. http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers

Cutting Jones gets the Packers another 3.75 million, Peppers last year cost the Packers 3.5 million, his number for the coming year is 12 million.  If cut the Packers will have to carry 5 million in dead money for him  but save 7 million in cap space. The Packers nor anyone else will pay him 12 million, the Packers may pay 6 to 7 million to keep him saving 5 million in cap space. My guess is the Packers will  have about 28 million to play with, they can pretty much sign all there free agents.

Cobb is the guy I am not sure of, they have a number they will pay him but will that be enough for Cobb. Cobb's problem is he is short, he is listed at 5'10", so he less then 5'10' how much less I do not know. But he does not have the size big time NFL receivers have, so I doubt he will get as much as Nelson is getting. I think the Packers will pay Bulaga so the O-Line will be fine.

But again the number 1 priority this off season is for the Packers to fire Capers.

Nice post, PackerJoe!

I think you are allowing for more money than what I thought Bulaga would get, but don't know if it makes enough of a difference to work a deal for Tramon.

My opinion was he would be at an average of $4-5M/year (say 4 years at $20-22M total), and I wouldn't think he would ever see an escalation to $6M or more per year. I do like the way you structured his signing bonus and cap hits, though.

The key to my proposal would be the second year base salary is guaranteed which puts the guaranteed amount at 13 million which, from what I can tell, is a very high number for a right tackle.  The signing bonus is small because of his injury history, it would allow the Packers to easily shed the contract after the 2016 season with a very minimal cap hit.

The best contract comparision on a 2014 deal would be Zach Strief.  This is what he got last off-season:

5 years, 20.5 million, 4.1 million average, 8.4 million guaranteed

2013 was a banner off-season for right tackle contracts:

Anthony Davis = 5 years, 37 million, 7.4 million average, 17 million guaranteed

Andre Smith = 3 years, 18 million, 6 million average, 5 million guaranteed

Phil Loadholt = 4 years, 25 million, 6.25 million average, 7 million guaranteed

If anything, the Bulaga contract would likely be one of the best right tackle contracts in the league and could very easily be considered an overpay:

4 years, 27 million, 6.75 million average, 13 million guarantee

If he could get more than that they good luck to him.  I wouldn't go one penny more.  If he leaves then OT becomes #1 priority in the draft and the available cap space grows to about 14 million.

Mike Daniels' playing time over his first three NFL seasons has earned the Green Bay Packers' defensive lineman a pay raise for 2015.

 

Daniels hit an escalator in his rookie contract that bumped his salary for next season from $660,000 to $1.574 million, according to the NFLPA salary database. He made $570,000 this past season.

 

Left guard Josh Sitton also hit a clause in his contract that bumped his 2015 base salary $250,000 for being voted into the Pro Bowl. He'll now make $5.1 million instead of $4.85 million.

 

Daniels' salary hike stems from the rookie wage scale that was added to the collective bargaining agreement in 2011, which allows players drafted in the third-to-seventh round to earn a proven performance escalator if they meet the guidelines.

 

Daniels, a fourth-round pick in 2012, was eligible because he played at least 35 percent of the defensive snaps in two of his first three seasons. He played roughly 20 percent of snaps as a rookie, but qualified after playing more than 48 percent in 2013 and more than 60 this past season.

 

Daniels was the only Packers' third-year player eligible for the escalator.

Guess this means Packerjoe will have to redo his whole theory as to what the Packers can afford since the cap numbers  will now change.