Packers Q&A with Football Outsiders (Acme Packing Co)

Football Outsiders, now there's a meat n' taters site.

"Adams, in particular, has been a complete disaster, a very bad rookie who was then much worse as a sophomore, one of the worst starting players at any position on any team in the league."

Yeah, really looking forward to him "turning it around".   

"a very bad rookie". Very bad? I'm going to disagree with that.

I think that's an exaggeration as well. He was a rookie, he had ups and downs like a rookie. It's Football Outsiders though, they make up their own stats by which they judge players with. 

Adams doesn't deserve to be slurped any more than Janis does. They both sucked last year.

And yes "sucked" is the best word for it. Overall, both of them failed when they had their chance.

And yes Adams was probably injured. If anyone wants to point that out "one last time," please just don't.  It is understood he was injured. That doesn't mean he should have anything less to prove. Him and Janis both.

Competition at WR is exactly where it needs to be right now.  

The bricks should help.

Pistol GB posted:

And yes Adams was probably injured. If anyone wants to point that out "one last time," please just don't.  It is understood he was injured. That doesn't mean he should have anything less to prove. Him and Janis both.

 

Everyone has to prove they belong every year, but that's not the point with Adams. For many, Adams shouldn't have sucked last year regardless of injury. Rodgers said it best, (paraphrasing) Adams was dealing with an injury most of the year, that's not an excuse, just reality.

Adams was probably banged up in some way last year

Yeah right past the doctors. Only people he faked out all year.

Let's debate it. Slurp, slurp, slurp. 

APC: Datone Jones’ move from defensive end to outside linebacker is one of the big moves for the Packers this offseason; he played a little bit of both last season, so is there evidence to think that he will be more successful standing up than on the line?

That's a really hard question to answer statistically. There just aren't that many prominent players who move from end to linebacker, and when they do, it's usually from a 4-3 end to 3-4 outside linebacker, so there's not that much difference between the two roles. The strangest part is, the Packers are pretty deep at outside linebacker, from Clay Matthews to Julius Peppers to Nick Perry, all of them former first-rounders like Jones. This seems more like an act of desperation, a last-ditch effort to recoup some of the value they've invested in Jones, than a sudden stroke of roster manipulation genius.

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This is another fine example of not really knowing your subject matter in depth, so you just throw some clichés at the wall. Awesome.

F.O. has 32 teams to cover and 60 players each, they can’t possibly know everything about every one of the nearly 2000 players that cycle through the league each year. They know stats and provide a valuable service, but stats don’t know schit about draft & develop or the human confrontation that defines this game. Baseball is stats, football is not... So be it.

They actually don’t have to look any further than the Packers own team for the example of Mike Neal to see how a 3-4 DE can be successfully converted to a 3-4 OLB. So easy a caveman could do it…

Mike Neal came into the league as a 2^nd rounder, and like most rookies wasn’t a finished product, physically speaking. As an avid weightlifter, it was easy enough for Neal to pump himself up to 300 lbs and try to play on the DL. But the injuries came early and often and eventually both the player and the team realized his body/ joints just couldn’t hold up at that weight.

So he dropped pounds, maintained his physique and turned into a decent OLB; setting the edge, rushing the passer and showing prowess vs guards in the Dime package. It was a successful transition and he delivered pressure/ sacks from both the OLB and DL spots as a valuable member of the front 7 rotation. He was one of the Packers who crushed Brady to end the Lambeau battle with the Patriots in November 2014.

It’s interesting to note that the number of games Neal played went like this:

As a 300 lb dude, he played 2, 7,and 11 games; out injured for all the rest.

Once he dropped down, he played 16, 16, 16. That’s a winning transition. And since DL are harder to find than LBs, the Packers tried him at the more difficult position first

Datone Jones came into the league… also an unfinished product and GB tried him as a 3-4 DL too. In the case of Jones, he had 2 main issues –

1) he actually couldn’t keep the weight on ( Neal could, but had too many injuries)

2) Jones didn’t thrive inside banging vs double teams - something he had to do as one of the 2 DL in the Nickel formation that GB used 70% of the time.

So, like Neal, GB asked him to drop a few pounds and become an Elephant end. It’s different than the weak side OLB that Matthews plays, and instead focuses more on setting the edge in the run game – something that Jones is ideally built for. He’s a liability in pass coverage, but Capers only uses his OLBs in occasional zone drops and short area coverage, so it’s not a big deal in this system.

Jones has way more wiggle than Neal and he can still move inside in Dime where he won’t face many combo blocks in the run game. He can pin his ears back and rush the passer. It’s not a move out of desperation as suggested by FO, instead it’s all part of draft & develop.

With Peppers winding down his career, GB needs a replacement and Jones will try to fill some of that role

Over and over and over we see the draft and develop teams working with a player to find his niche among the elite men who play this game. There is no such thing as a square peg/round hole when you’re talking about 20-22 year olds still developing their bodies, their techniques and their NFL skill set. The draft is a game of projection and you literally have no idea how each individual will respond to NFL nutrition, weight training and one- on- one battles against professional behemoths.

Did you know who or what you were going to be when you were 22  years old ? HaHa !

Rodgers was a cocky Tedford, Matthews a juicer, Tramon and Shields were UDFAs that nobody wanted, Daniels was a 4-3 guy and too short to succeed, Eddie had injured feet, HaHa was too slow, Hyde was a tweener, Jolly an unwanted 6^th rounder, Woodson a malcontent with bad knees.

Yada Yada Yada….

The Packers have the patience and the coaches to pull it off and not all teams can make the same claim. The Packers also benefit from not having an impatient owner or needing to sell tickets to impatient fans. They have been immensely successful not only in developing their stars, but just as importantly in developing the role players that fill out the roster in the salary-cap era

I predict that Datone Jones is going to have a very good season as part of an incredibly deep and talented OLB crew. The most important position in the Capers 3-4 is stocked with a wide variety of skill sets and Datone will be a valuable part of that rotation.

They didn’t move him because he sucks, they moved him to get him more snaps and to take advantage of his talents; that’s what good teams do.

It’s not desperation, it’s part of the commitment to development.

The idea that these young men come into the league as ready-made DL or OLBs is absurd. That’s why the Packers are open to changes as warranted. So you try a few things, you adapt to their skills/ physique/talents, minimize their weaknesses and you try your best to get IT out of them. You take the raw materials and turn them into productive members of your Championship-caliber team as both the players' talents and the teams’ needs evolve over time.

Mahatma Lombardi said it best:

I am not concerned with being consistent in what I say

I am concerned with being consistent with the Truth as its revealed to me

And the Truth is, Football Outsiders doesn’t know jack diddly squat about why Datone Jones has a new position for 2016

Go Packers 

big if true.

The beauty of the Packers is that they don't go into their drafts (usually) with the mindset that they HAVE to fill needs or pull x amount of starters out of the draft.  

It's BPA, and then coach and develop them up - along with providing constant competition to the incumbents- that makes this formula successful. 

Bottom line they don't NEED Jones to come in right away and be dominant from day one.  I think that's key to why most of their players remain in the league for as long as they do.  It's a lot just for guys just to get acclimated to the speed and grind of the league, and if they can nurture these guys (rather than throwing them to the wolves) they stand a better chance of sticking and contributing. 

Look no further than what TT has done with the DB and WR groups.  He's always reloading the OL and DL as well.  

Makes me wonder if Adams was hurt last year

I agree with you Satori. It's not about desperation or recouping value, it's about finding the right spot for Jones. Players should generally get 3-4 years at a position before you can truly decide if they are working out or not, that's why contracts for rookies are generally 4-5 years. Jones wasn't developing at 34 End, he showed flashes, but that wasn't a natural fit for him. So rather than keep him there, call him a bust and let him walk they are trying to find his natural position. And if he works out then he can be re-signed for big money or allowed to walk and get money elsewhere netting a nice compensatory pick (not ideal though). Not sure where the desperation factors in there? 

Hungry5 posted:

. For many, Adams shouldn't have sucked last year regardless of injury. 

He shouldn't have sucked as bad as he did would be a better description.  He let the injury get into his head and he wasn't just "hobbled" he was ****ing horrible.  His ankle didn't make him drop passes that hit him right in the hands.  I personally think he has a permanent case of the yips and that's a lot harder to cure.  I don't think Rodgers and this offense is going to be any more forgiving of that than Janis the Dumb being Janis the Dumb.

And while we're at it I'm glad FO called out Cobb and the rest of the receiving corp.  They sucked.  Seriously, how bad was it to follow up with that season after the Seattle debacle?  The whole thing gives me pause.

Football Outsiders pulls opinion base on a different perspective of the stats and you can tell they know the game vs. 50 Irish Drunks.   9 times out of 10 they nail the gist of the argument even if there are flawed tenants.

I agree, how players react to & rehab injuries is huge & an aspect that we have little insight to. As the season progresses most players are playing with some type of injury, player's mental toughness to play through, as Lombardi called them "the little hurts", is critical. Adams did not appear to be physically 100% last season. However, our training staff is typically one of the most conservative when it comes to injuries, so they must have determined that whatever the injury, playing with it posed no permanent harm. Adams may be one of those guys who just can not battle through physical discomfort. This is a huge season for him. 

Jones has been disappointing that's for sure. But he's flashed enough to make you hope he has it in him to be a good player. The move could be really good for him. He shows real strength as a pass rusher but looked weak holding the edge against the run on Friday night. Still waiting on Datone.....

Henry posted:

Hungry5 posted:

. For many, Adams shouldn't have sucked last year regardless of injury. 

He shouldn't have sucked as bad as he did would be a better description.  He let the injury get into his head and he wasn't just "hobbled" he was ****ing horrible.  His ankle didn't make him drop passes that hit him right in the hands.  

Disagree. Dealing with an injury can and does impede concentration. Was that the case with Adams? Only he and the others inside 1265 really know.

If he has a permanent case of the yips as you suppose, than we'll find out soon enough because all indications are that he is 100% healthy now.

And just like Janis I hope this guy tears it up.  IMO, he just looks soft.

Hungry5 posted:

Disagree. Dealing with an injury can and does impede concentration. Was that the case with Adams? Only he and the others inside 1265 really know.

 

Exactly, but almost every player has some type of injury at some point in the season. How a player deals with minor injuries is as important as not getting a major one, since minor injuries are inevitable. How individuals deal with it is another variable that separates players in this league. 

BTW, let's not use Mike Neal for any comparison unless we know Datone is on par with his steroid use.

With that said, I think Jones will be more productive.  The Wizarding of the Wizard always seems to be 2 steps behind player development then gets switched up leaving guys like Jones in limbo.  The whole idea of being able to flow down the line while you play your best NT out of position is just sheer genius.  

FO > 50 drunk Irish stat nerds who don't know football.

Good to see you back your Evilness.

Does Football Outsiders also rank Softness? I haven't seen them adopt Belly Fire yet despite my constant messaging on LinkedIn that they should. When we talk about softness, is it more of a tangible quality like soft midsection or soft skin or is it something that is perceived via their aura or by peering into their soul? What about hardness, no one is pointing out which players are the hardest! Clay seems pretty hard and Datone seems to be getting hard. 

Stop with that weak ****.  If  Adam's injury so limited his concentration on the field that the corollary should've been him in a iron lung that's on you.  This guy just screams up and down journeyman right now.

Would the Whizinator affect the hardness measure? 

Asking for a friend. 

Is it soft **** or weak ****, there's a difference and it correlates directly to health. 

Adams is entering year 3, entering year 3 Greg Jennings only caught 53% of his targets after struggling with some injuries (Adams averaged 55% over his two years by comparison). In year 3 Jennings had the most receptions and yards of his career and improved his % of catches to targets by 4%. Not saying Adams is poised for a career year, but don't write off players after only two years. 

Players who had lousy sophmore 2nd years:

Gerg Jennings

Jordy Nelson (demoted to 4th WR)

James Jones

Nowhere in the article is the numerous failings of MM and the coaching staff mentioned. A complete failure to adequately adjust to the loss of Jordy and MM's handling of the LT position due to Bak's injury was abysmal.

Between the injury and the poor coaching I'm inclined to give Adams a bit of a pass on his poor year. He starts with a clean slate this year and it's time for him to perform. 

I get hard if the wind blows.

Just sayin......

So now wind speed also needs to be factored into the equation.  Football is hard. 

Grave Digger posted:

Is it soft **** or weak ****, there's a difference and it correlates directly to health. 

Adams is entering year 3, entering year 3 Greg Jennings only caught 53% of his targets after struggling with some injuries (Adams averaged 55% over his two years by comparison). In year 3 Jennings had the most receptions and yards of his career and improved his % of catches to targets by 4%. Not saying Adams is poised for a career year, but don't write off players after only two years. 

I'm talking about your weak ****.  

Hell, I'll even give you another excuse.  The coaching SUCKED last year.  Now you have Adams showing nothing in TC after an ATROCIOUS year.  Not a down year, not a bad year, a HORRIBLE, ATROCIOUS, HE SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF HIMSELF kind of year and you don't think reasonable doubt is in order?  

Ankles Adams, your Robert Ferguson is ready.

Saw this on a t-shirt once.

I assume this was hyperbole? "Now you have Adams showing nothing in TC" 

# 3 WRs are often journeymen, see Jones, James et al

In the case of Adams, I believe Henry is wrong and I'll lay out some of the reasond why I think that.

IMO, a good way to make the evaluation from the outside, is to ask yourself this question: What is it that I don't know ?

Instead of relying on speculation, innuendo and projections, we can look and see how other Packer WRs have produced with injuries. Cobb had the most drops of any WR in 25 years of Packer history, mostly because he had a torn AC joint and partially because he was pressing mentally. He said as much himself

http://archive.jsonline.com/sp...526z1-366333791.html

Here we have an example of a Packers WR with both a physical injury and a mental challenge. Cobb is also paid as a top tier guy, yet nobody is calling for him to be cut, none of the fans are ripping on him and we don't have anybody suggesting he has the yips.

Another example is Jordy Nelson in the Super Bowl. Jordy had some killer drops that may have derailed a couple of drives. He also had a killer drop in the end zone in the 4th quarter that would have sealed the game. Instead GB had to settle for a FG and then play defense for another Steelers drive.

We later found out that Jordy had a burst bursa sac in his knee and couldn't push off. That's why he dropped the end zone pass that hit him in the hands, a play he makes 9 times out of 10. And the pressure of the SB perhaps had him mentally pressing too, causing him to drop another pass that hit him square in the hands.  Driver talked about how he implored Jordy to just relax and make the same plays he always did.

Yet, nobody assails Jordy for his drops or suggests he has the yips or that he sucked in any way shape or form. Nelson has certainly proven it over a longer period of time, but Jordy struggled in years 1-3, including some untimely fumbles. We can do the same exercise with James Jones and his killer drops, although I don't know if he had any underlying injury. These guys are the elite of the elite facing the elite of the elite. Even operating at 100% its a huge challenge

Adams-ripping is merely an example of the biases we all have in how we treat different people differently. Adams proved himself in several important games in 2014, both the Pats game in November and the playoff game vs Dallas as well as the fake spike catch with time running out at Miami

He will be fine in 2016.

We can also note how the HC and QB1 reacted to Adams performance in 2015.  They knew about the undisclosed MCL in addition to the ankle injury. They knew that Adams was operating on bad wheels and facing # 1 DBs and they were OK with it because they knew things we aren't privy to.

They knew he was half-assing it on some routes and they were OK with it because they had more info than we do. Rodgers is uber-anal about preparation and effort - often refusing to throw to guys who aren't putting in the work or being in the right spot. Yet he continued to throw to Davante and continued to support him, including his comment calling Davante "Mr. January" after his performance vs Washington in the playoffs. If Rodgers is cool with Adams, then so am I.

I'd like to think I don't really give a rats ass whether or not Henry and the other detractors change their tune on Adams, but I'm not certain. I merely pointed it out as an example of what happens when we make immutable conclusions based on limited info and then bolster those conclusions with the vagaries of our own biases. Got six minutes ? Enjoy it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kGymW5Qcug

The biggest thing we don't know about Adams is how he needs to be reached/coached, by that thinking. Is he a guy  who folds under duress/pressure? Or is he a guy who you motivate by ripping in to him and challenging "his manhood"? IOW, Are they possitive because of what they see, or are they positive because they know what a negative reaction will do? 

In college....then, Yes.  We need to know how a player can be "reached" or "coached-up" effectively.

However, in the pro's....the paycheck SHOULD be only thing needed to motivate them.   The alternative for many is to wait on tables at the nearest Applebee's.

Herschel posted:

Would the Whizinator affect the hardness measure? 

Asking for a friend. 

I bet you are.

SanDiegoPackFan posted:

In college....then, Yes.  We need to know how a player can be "reached" or "coached-up" effectively.

However, in the pro's....the paycheck SHOULD be only thing needed to motivate them.   The alternative for many is to wait on tables at the nearest Applebee's.

 

I disagree. Coaches are there to get the best out of players, by whatever means necessary. "One-size fits all" is generally a pretty lousy coaching philosophy and all these guys are human beings. I think the vast majority want to excel but how does a coach best tap in to those abilities is the question.  It's not necessarily about motivation, maybe leaning more towards inspiration.

We've all seen/heard about the Mackey Sassers of the sports world  but trying to alleviate or avoid those situations is an important aspect of coaching. 

It is simple. **** or get off the pot.

I like to read on the pot.  Dad doesn't call it a library for no reason.