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"In the red zone, their offensive success rate is third in the league, just ahead of the high-powered Ravens."

Packers suck at everything. Worst 11-3 team in the 💯 year history of the NFL.

Winning Ugly baby. It sure is fine with me! Fun!!

But the ideal scenario is still available: the Packers have a conceivable path to the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.

Here’s the most plausible scenario:

– The Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16 and Detroit Lions in Week 17
– The Los Angeles Rams beat the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16
– The 49ers beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17

Another possible way: the Packers win out, the Arizona Cardinals beat the Seahawks in Week 16 and the Seahawks beat the 49ers in Week 17.

In either scenario, the Packers finish 13-3 and secure the No. 1 seed over the 12-4 NFC West champion. And even if the New Orleans Saints also finish 13-3, the Packers would have the conference record tiebreaker.

The No. 1 seed would guarantee a home playoff game at Lambeau Field in the NFC Divisional Round. And, if the Packers won, the NFC Championship Game would be played in Green Bay.

“It’s important to us to get as many games as we can in our own stadium,” coach Matt LaFleur said Monday, via the team’s official site.

LaFleur’s team is 7-1 at home this season.

The Packers will have to beat the odds. According to the New York Times playoff predictor, the Packers will enter Week 16 with a nine percent chance of securing the No. 1 seed.

DH13 posted:

Anyone want to do the math if GB/MIN ends in a tie and then beats DET?

If GB/MIN ends in a tie, Packers win the division on the head-to-head tiebreaker, regardless of what happens in week 17.

That's right.

Packers = 1 - 0 - 1 

Vikings = 0 - 1 - 1

A tie in Minnesota is the same thing as a win for the Pack as relates to the NFC North division crown.

The line has jumped from Pack +4.5 to Pack +5.5 or even +6 

Lotsa money on the Vikings. 

Biggest underdog Pack has been all season. 

They froze the MoneyLine betting on Tuesday for some reason. Couldn't bet it until Wednesday.

Last edited by Boris
Boris posted:

 

 

The line has jumped from Pack +4.5 to Pack +5.5 or even +6 

Lotsa money on the Vikings. 

Biggest underdog Pack has been all season. 

They froze the MoneyLine betting on Tuesday for some reason. Couldn't bet it until Wednesday.

I know.   I was going to put some coin on the moneyline but it's all the way up to -240.     That's horrible value so I might have to bit the bullet and put a little on the Pack at +200. 

The freeze might have been due to info on Cook. 

This week I got some good lines early:

Chiefs -5 vs Bears
Saints -1.5 vs Titans
Texans -2.5 vs Bucs

Don't like being all favorites but those are the bets I likes so it is what it is. 

Last edited by BrainDed

Packers +5.5 is an unreal bet!

Is everyone betting the Vikings because the Pack got blown out in SF after the bye??

Vikings might win but I don't believe they will blowout the Packers. 

I absolutely love the Packers to cover +5.5. I was wrong about the SF game but I feel even better about this game. 

YATittle posted:

There’s an amazing symmetry at work here.

Beat the Bears—clinch playoff spot.

Beat the Vikes—clinch the division.

Beat the Lions—clinch a bye.

take a moment to savor that.

I'm liking your post no matter how much I like your post.

I'm seeing a trend at the end of this season.
Teams that started out with dominant defenses over the first half of season no longer are. They're still good enough to keep games close enough to win, but are giving up many more points/game and rush yds/game. If the opponent can generate any kind of offense, however, they can easily lose. Especially giving up late-game scores.

That may be an advantage for the Packers. Other playoff teams are regressing, but our scoring defense has been solid the entire year. 


Can the high-seeded, win-ugly Packers really contend for the Super Bowl?

To win playoff games, the Packers will need something from Rodgers that they haven't gotten or even asked for: a performance that matches some of his singular playoff games, from the 2010 divisional playoff against the Atlanta Falcons to the 2016 divisional game against the Dallas Cowboys. That'll get us all talking about the Packers again, not for aesthetic reasons but for competitive ones, instead of noting that Rodgers now ranks 21st in the NFL in QBR (52.2).

Agree with Seifert- the Packers are going to need better QB play than they've gotten in the playoffs.

I'm sure the wheels are in motion.  I don't expect an Atlanta type of ass whippin' simply because the Packers have a defense but I think it goes without saying Rodgers and receivers need to step up.

I've been on Rodgers all year, mostly because I KNOW he can play a lot better than he has and it's been disappointing to watch him play below his talent level.  

I think it's all mental with him... I also think he's thisclose to elevating his game to the level we expect out of him.  

GB needs to take a look at the receiving corp in the off season for sure.  Adams and Lazard are keepers.  I'm not in love with any of the other guys at all.  A stud TE would vastly improve the offense as well.  Hopefully that guy is already on the roster (Sternberger).  

Any play that has 2 WRs on the field should have Adams and Lazard. Allison has played better as of late, especially his blocking in the run game. For TE, more Tonyan And Jace please. They can break tackles... unlike Graham.

Last edited by H5
Hungry5 posted:

Any play that has 2 WRs on the field should have Adams and Lazard. Allison has played better as of late, especially his blocking in the run game. For TE, more Tonyan And Jace please. They can break tackles... unlike Graham.

That was the plan last week except for plays where one or the other needed a rest.     Allison has been demoted to 3rd WR and if the trend continues Kumerow will pass him up this week.  

This is based off snap counts. 

https://subscribers.footballgu...s/teampage-gnb-6.php

Last edited by BrainDed
Pakrz posted:

I've been on Rodgers all year, mostly because I KNOW he can play a lot better than he has.

Agree. He hasn't been his usual 👽 accuracy self. He's been human & that's below the standard he has previously set.

Pakrz posted:

A stud TE would vastly improve the offense as well.  Hopefully that guy is already on the roster (Sternberger).  

He is on the roster & I'm guessing they made him inactive to keep Jace off tape. Must have unscouted looks in the playoffs if you're going to win.

Also wondering if we'll see Ryan Grant in the playoffs. 

And I wonder if we will see some hurry up offense in the playoffs.  In the past that was when AR12 was at his best, not letting the defense sub in. I can't recall as hurry up that as not part of a 2 minute drill this season. 

Jace isn't getting snaps because he  is the worst blocking TE on the squad and we have become a ball control offense.  Yes, worse than Graham who has actually improved a lot this year in that area.  

Pakrz posted:

I've been on Rodgers all year, mostly because I KNOW he can play a lot better than he has and it's been disappointing to watch him play below his talent level.  

I think it's all mental with him... I also think he's thisclose to elevating his game to the level we expect out of him.  

GB needs to take a look at the receiving corp in the off season for sure.  Adams and Lazard are keepers.  I'm not in love with any of the other guys at all.  A stud TE would vastly improve the offense as well.  Hopefully that guy is already on the roster (Sternberger).  

Agree that Rodgers can play better.  But, as this analysis today from the JSO points out, the WR play is also an issue (outside of Adams):

"Yes, Rodgers was a little behind his target on a few short throws in the first half, and he even threw an interception. But it’s hard to get on him for the pick considering it was only his third in 15 games. He also was victim of some bad plays by receivers that kept points off the board.

For instance, on a third down early in the game Allen Lazard had one-on-one coverage on a deep route, but instead of drifting away from cornerback Mackenzie Alexander, who had inside leverage on him, Lazard continued straight down the field. Rodgers threw a good pass to the outside, but Lazard was five yards away from the ball when it hit the ground because he didn’t bend the route outside. If that had been Davante Adams, it would have been a 42-yard touchdown. Instead, it was a punt."

https://www.jsonline.com/story...position/2744150001/

 

BrainDed posted:

Jace isn't getting snaps because he  is the worst blocking TE on the squad and we have become a ball control offense.  Yes, worse than Graham who has actually improved a lot this year in that area.  

Yeah, strength is an issue with Jace right now. He's getting pushed around. He's a big WR and we already have Lazard. 

It should be Lewis and Tonyan with Graham rotating in. 

Boris posted:

Plenty of teams can say this.

Pakrz posted:

I've been on Rodgers all year, mostly because I KNOW he can play a lot better than he has and it's been disappointing to watch him play below his talent level.  

I think it's all mental with him... I also think he's thisclose to elevating his game to the level we expect out of him.  

GB needs to take a look at the receiving corp in the off season for sure.  Adams and Lazard are keepers.  I'm not in love with any of the other guys at all.  A stud TE would vastly improve the offense as well.  Hopefully that guy is already on the roster (Sternberger).  

Rodgers still holds onto the ball too long before getting rid of it.  When he does get rid of it, he throws it to Davante 90% of the time. Aren't there other receivers open somewhere? You cannot tell me they are all being covered. After about the 4th pass to Davante, I know he is being covered.

Read that story that said Lazard had friends with him to watch the draft at a Buffalo Wild Wings and then he wasn’t even selected. Like Arod he’s been a man on a mission since then to overcome Draft Day Humiliation 

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