I also have to think Michigan is still in the discussion regardless of the BT championship game especially if a Clemson or Washington loses again.
UM might have 2 losses, but they own head to head comparisons by beating UW and throttling Penn State. That's 2 top 10 wins not including the Colorado win that looks pretty good right now.
I'm not sure there is truly a path for Bucky to make the playoffs anymore. If they beat PSU and Clemson AND Washington both lose then you're talking about Michigan moving back into the playoffs and I just don't think the committee will put 3 B1G teams in a 4 team playoff...especially when the Pac12 winner (in this scenario Colorado) is also a top 10 team with 2 losses. If Oklahoma (also 2 losses) won convincingly over OK St., becoming the Big 12 champ, then I believe they would also be in the playoff conversation in this scenario. Wisconsin has a legit case being the #6 team, the B1G champ (in this scenario), and their only losses coming to OSU and UMich, but again I don't think the committee will put 3 B1G teams in there.
If either Clemson or Washington lose while Bucky wins convincingly, then the committee should move Wisconsin in to the playoff over Michigan. I'm not sure that happens though.
If 3 B1G teams are deserving, then 3 should be in.
If Wisconsin wins the B1G, they're in. I don't get what that's so hard to see.
Washington does not have a signature win. WSU is not a signature win. The only other team they played was USC, and they got beat. If you watched any of the PAC 12, its mediocre at best. It's a very top heavy conference,and none of them stepped forward with quality non-conference games.
The Wisconsin win over LSU is better than any win Washington has on their schedule. LSU has 4 losses, all to teams in top 15, and they're the only team to give 'Bama a game.
Washington also lost by two scores to a team ranked in the 20s...at home... late in the season.
If you are one of the top 4 teams in the country...you take care of much lower ranked teams on your home field.
Michigan does have a pretty strong case. They have a better case than Washington does. You gotta play good teams, and teams that don't should be punished for it. The top of the B1G has done that. OSU played Oklahoma, Michigan played Colorado, Wisconsin played LSU... the only team that didn't schedule a quality non-conference opponent is Penn State. Their rise to the B1G championship game is really quite flukey.
Really that's what the conversation should be about- not about if Wisconsin/Penn St. gets bumped by Washington, but if Michigan should bump Clemson/Washington.
As much as I'd like Bucky to get to the playoff, I think it's unlikely they get in. I think they'll either take Ohio State or the UW/Penn State winner, but not both. I think it's Alabama, Clemson, Washington, Big10 team.
If they are really serious about the conference championship games, then Ohio State should be out, but I think they'll take OSU over Wisconsin or Penn State.
Even if Clemson or Washington lose, I think they'll be a lot of momentum for Oklahoma to go if they beat Oklahoma State. Oklahoma hasn't beaten anyone that good, but many will argue that taking two teams from the Big10 (especially when one has two losses) is something that shouldn't happen with other conference champs out there with the same number of losses.
You can't say Oklahoma should get in because they won their conference but WI should be out even though they won the best conference in the country.
Computer Strength of schedule rankings as of today.
OSU 4
Alabama 10
Michigan 11
Clemson 21
Wisconsin 25
Penn State 28
Colorado 42
Oklahoma 54
Washington 69
Those bottom three just don't deserve equal rating when in discussion with the top six.
Washington's strength of schedule ranks 69 out of 128 in the country. C'mon man!
Is that the SOS the committee uses? I know there are multiple ways to calculate SOS.
FreeSafety posted:You can't say Oklahoma should get in because they won their conference but WI should be out even though they won the best conference in the country.
I completely agree that they should be in for winning the best conference in the country. But, we better brace ourselves for not getting in and the committee picking O$U instead. We are going to see what the committee values more head to head matchup, conference titles, or the "eye test". They are going to pick O$U because they can use the excuse that they beat UW and have a good resume. Also, I just cant see a scenario that they drop Ohio St. 3 spots to #5 to leave them out.
With all that being said lets worry about Indy first and beat PSU. If they win that game and head to Pasadena that isn't that bad of a consolation prize and none of us thought they would even get that chance.
Hungry5 posted:Is that the SOS the committee uses? I know there are multiple ways to calculate SOS.
Good point. I don't know so I looked at a few of them.
Colley Matrix, Sagarin and Congrove
OSU 4, 15, 3 Average 7.33
Alabama 10, 7, 6 Ave 7.66
Wisconsin 25, 20, 4 Ave 16.33
Penn St 28, 39, 15 Ave 27.33
Colorado 42, 23, 17 Ave 27.33
Michigan 11, 33, 41 Ave 28.33
Oklahoma 54, 18, 29 Ave 33.66
Clemson 21, 47, 47 Ave 38.33
Washington 69, 60, 43 Ave 57.33
My point remains: Washington hasn't been tested anywhere near what the other top teams have. And when they were, they lost by two scores at home to a team ranked well below them.
Thanks for pulling those FS. Beating Penn St in the B1G title game should carry a lot of weight it seems.
It trumps anything on Washington's resume... by a lot.
I think the committee factors in multiple criteria, but at the end of the day they pick who they believe are the best 4 teams in the country. I agree that the B1G winner SHOULD go, along with the SEC and PAC12 winners as those teams have gone through a gauntlet of inter-conference play AND won a championship outright. The Big 12 needs a championship game to legitimize their champion.
If you want to compare quality wins:
-Michigan has the best argument with 4 wins vs. Top 25 teams with 3 of those against now Top 10 teams. They have the best claim of 2 loss teams IMO.
-Clemson has the next best argument having 4 wins against Top 25 teams with 1 of them being a Top 15 team. Beating VTech would give them 5 Top 25 wins, that's pretty solid.
-Penn St. has 2 wins vs. Top 25 teams with 1 of those wins against a Top 10 team. Giving them another win against a Top 10 team, Wisconsin, AND being the B1G champ would make it hard to leave them out.
-Wisconsin has a good argument with 3 wins vs. Top 25 teams, keep in mind though that those wins are against teams ranked 21, 22, 23...not exactly signature wins. A win over Penn St. would be that signature win they need on a resume.
-Oklahoma has 1 win vs. a Top 15 team, West Virginia, which is moderately good, but not incredible. Beating OK St. would give them another Top 15 win, that's not bad but I'm not sure it's enough to leapfrog the B1G or Pac 12 champ.
-Washington has 1 win vs. Top 25 team, Stanford, who I wouldn't call a signature win either this year. Keep in mind that they have wins over a couple of teams on the periphery of the top 25 like Utah and Washington St. Those wins are as impressive as wins over Iowa and Nebraska, which is to say they a little bit impressive. Colorado would be a signature win.
-Colorado has 1 win vs. Top 25 team, Stanford. Same boat as Washington.
Pac 12 champ Washington vs. B1G champ Wisconsin would be a tough choice. Two teams with an equally mediocre amount of quality wins whose only losses are to now Top 10 teams. Ultimately I think record makes the difference, giving Washington the edge, but I can see arguments either way.
Grave Digger posted:Pac 12 champ Washington vs. B1G champ Wisconsin would be a tough choice. Two teams with an equally mediocre amount of quality wins whose only losses are to now Top 10 teams. Ultimately I think record makes the difference, giving Washington the edge, but I can see arguments either way.
Great post.
But in this last part I think this is where strength of schedule has to come into play. If you are going to use record to give Washington the edge, I cannot agree. Not with their weak SOS and the way WI had to face a gauntlet of quality opponents week after week.
And WI looked and played well in their only two losses.
Holding MI to 14 at the Big House after they had just put up 45 and 49 on two other now top 10 teams and being in the game right up until an amazing 4th quarter interception.
Taking OSU to OT and being one missed tackle on a sack away from winning.
I give those two tough performances even in losses more credit than I do some of the wins that Washington has over very weak opponents.
Grave Digger posted:
-Washington has 1 win vs. Top 25 team, Stanford, who I wouldn't call a signature win either this year. Keep in mind that they have wins over a couple of teams on the periphery of the top 25 like Utah and Washington St. Those wins are as impressive as wins over Iowa and Nebraska, which is to say they a little bit impressive. Colorado would be a signature win.
If you're just looking at numbers next to their team names, sure. But who have these teams played? What are their strength of schedules?
You will see that WSU got beat by E. Washington and doesn't have a single good win on their record- I don't even know how they're ranked. They fattened up on the weak underlings of the conference and lost every game against a team that didn't suck.
Utah has losses to Cal and Oregon (both really bad teams) in addition to losses to Washington and Colorado. The only win they seem to have that is of note is against an OK BYU team. I do not know why they were ever ranked either. They also got fat on their own terrible schedule and conference.
The Pac 12 is just bad this year. Only Washington, Colorado, USC are even decent- that's it. Stanford got exposed like MSU did, but because they play in the Pac 12 they were able to recover to get 8 wins. The middle teams below them are only winning because they scheduled dog crap in the non-conference and they beat up on some horrible conference teams. The quality of play has also been bad- look at the points given up in that conference this year, even by the good teams. Ridiculous.
No, it's a far better argument to make that 3 B1G teams make it than the B1G Champion be left out. I said earlier that Washington might be considered if Clemson loses- the more I think about it, the more sense it makes that Michigan be considered ahead of Washington.
Grave Digger posted:-Washington has 1 win vs. Top 25 team, Stanford, who I wouldn't call a signature win either this year. Keep in mind that they have wins over a couple of teams on the periphery of the top 25 like Utah and Washington St. Those wins are as impressive as wins over Iowa and Nebraska, which is to say they a little bit impressive. Colorado would be a signature win.
Colley looks like they give a quality rank to each win or loss. Look at them side by side in the link. The Utah win has a quality rank below Bucky's win vs Minnesota and way below the wins over Iowa and Nebraska.
Wisconsin's loss to OSU is very near the quality rank of Washington's win vs Portland St.
WI total quality number is 344
Washington is at 361
Lower is better.....OSU is at 275
My point every which way you look to compare Wisconsin and Washington....WI looks to have the better reseme.
The B1G is a tougher gauntlet for sure. If things were being decided now I think Wisconsin has a better case than Washington, but if Washington pounds Colorado (a top 10 team) and Wisconsin does not win convincingly, which they haven't always done this year, then I think the committee sides with Washington. B1G doesn't have much representation on the committee besides Alvarez. I'm sure he will make his case, but I'm not sure it will be enough. Ultimately that's what it comes down to, we can compare quality wins and SOS and all the data available, but if the majority of the committee sides with Washington over Wisconsin or Michigan then that is that. If I was filling out the playoffs right now I would go Alabama, OSU, Clemson, Michigan. I think those 4 teams are playing the best football right now.
In the end whoever is in that 4th spot has to go get slaughtered by Bama, so maybe it is better to be left out and go win the Rose Bowl against Colorado! This might be the best Bama team we have seen under Saban, they're dominant.
I heard what might be the most logical argument so far on the Big Ten contenders, but it's not necessarily good for Wisconsin.
If you were to rank the top 4 teams in the Big Ten (forget West v East) right now UW is 3rd. Even with a win v Penn State I'm not sure they leapfrog Michigan. Why? They've already beaten 3 top 10 teams including both UW and Penn State.
The other factor is Michigan is just a better team and more equipped to handle an Alabama or Clemson or even Ohio State in the playoffs. Plus they have star power. That matters IMO.
I am as big of a Wisconsin homer as there is but I can't see the Badgers making it in unless the stars align - which is possible but not likely.
Still a hell of a season no matter what
