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So things are going to start getting interesting in seedings for the playoffs.

Alabama seems unbeatable but I have this hunch that Auburn is going to give them a run for their money.  They also need to play Miss St but that game is at home

Washington.  who really knows much about them?  And they have to play a really hot U$C team this week but the game is at home.

Ohio State goes to Maryland and MSU before they play Michigan. 

Michigan's road may be a bit tougher.  They go to Iowa and home to Indiana before O$U.   The Iowa game could be a tough one depending on which Iowa team shows up

Clemson is a team for some reason I just not that excited about.  They are good but how good are they really?  but they should win out against Pitt, Wake and South Carolina

Louisville.  They have Wake, Houston, and Kentucky.   Houston is like Iowa it could be a tough game but it will depend on who shows up.

UW?  I think a lot would have to happen for them to make the playoffs.  They would have to win out, beat Michigan/OSU in the BIG title game and need a ton of help. 

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If they win out, they probably need one other thing to happen to get in. They were at #7 last week and Texas AM lost, so they should bump up to #6. If they win out that means that both OSU and Michigan will have lost, so the only other teams currently ranked above them are Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and Louisville. If all those teams win out, they would be out of the playoff. If Alabama, Clemson, and Washington lose once, they still might stay in front of a two loss Wisconsin team. There easiest route is to win out and have Louisville lose once. Louisville does play at Houston.

I think Bucky wins out in the regular season and then loses to OSU/UM in the Big10 Championship game. I think winning that game is a much bigger hurdle than needing something to happen from the other teams

I agree that game is a much bigger hurdle especially if they play O$U.  Getting that team on a neutral field in a dome is kind of scary and this feels like 2014 all over again.  I don't think they would get whacked 59-0 again but it would be a tough situation to play them.

I have tickets to the Big Ten championship so hopefully it will be more competitive this time.

I disagree- I think the Badgers can win out and get in the playoffs, and it just depends on who they beat in the B1G title game. 

If its an undefeated Michigan team, I think they're in. There's no way to ignore what they've done. Wins over (what would then be) 4 top 10 teams in 6 contests against top 10 teams would garner a lot of support. 

But if its OSU then that's not as good. Then Washington and Louisville are in play. But I think Washington loses before then. To me the real threat is Louisville, but they won't even play in their ACC title game. I think that hurst them in the end with the committee. But there's that chance the allure of the superstar could sway the committee...

Last edited by Music City

Elite defense and mediocre offense.  

CC is a pretty damn good player.  Peavy and 9 fingers are nice players, Ram is the only elite player on offence.  Line and rest of WR crew is pretty pedestrian.  If the defense could play with a lead early on (and the special teams win a few battles like they did on Sat) this team belongs in the playoffs.  If the D has a bad day...

Image result for your gonna have a bad time gif

Need MICH to win last 2 then lose to WI in the title game. IMO, that is what the Badgers need for a shot into the playoffs. Also having Louisville drop another would be great just to be sure. 

My CFP projection after yesterday

1 - Alabama

2- Mich

3 - Ohio St

4 - Louisville

5 - Wisconsin

6 - Washington

7 - Clemson



Wash and Clem were losses at home. Clemson to an unranked Pitt.

Speight reportedly will be out for the remainder of the season with a broken collarbone, although he could potentially return for the team's bowl game, according to MGoBlog.com. Mark Snyder of the Detroit Free Press later confirmed the report.

However, that contradicts what head coach Jim Harbaugh said Monday, when he called Speight a game-time decision for Saturday's game against Indiana, per Snyder.

"It's going to depend on how he feels," Harbaugh said. "Could be a [game-time decision]. We will know based on what the doctors say and how Wilton's feeling."

Harbaugh wouldn't go into specifics on the injury, but Snyder reported that Speight had suffered a left shoulder injury. However, the coach did confirm that backup quarterback John O'Korn and Shane Morris would get the majority of practice reps.    

Well, this could Change some thoughts about playing and beating Michigan.......

Bleacher Report.

 

Fans talk. Players play. 

Everything is automatically contingent on them winning out. But I'm of the mind that the Badgers will not be final 4 even if they win the B1G Championship if they don't get a revenge win. It has to be one of the two- Michigan or OSU. If its Penn State, there is going to be a perception that OSU or Michigan is still better. 

First things first. Let's win the next 2. I can't see them losing to Purdue, but Minnesota is going to be tough.

If Bucky wins 2 the fact that the Michigan QB is out complicates this even more. That makes it more likely that UM will lose to OSU and put Penn State in the Big 10 title game. Best case scenario is that OSU beats UM and then MSU shocks Penn State (which is not impossible, but unlikely). Then Bucky gets OSU and a "revenge" win and both Penn State and MSU will have more or as many losses as UW. However, it's likely it ends up being Penn State and Wisconsin and OSU will end up in the playoff as a 1 loss team that already beat a team that may also be in the playoff (Oklahoma). 

In the end it's going to be 

Alabama

Clemson

Big 10 team - most likely OSU

I wouldn't be surprised if Oklahoma sneaks in also over Washington. 

 

 

If UW wins out and beats Penn St in the title game.

1.Alabama

2. Ohio St

3. Clemson

4. Wisconsin

The Big 10 champ (best conference by far outside of the SEC) that only lost to OSU and MI....each by a TD and one in OT is not going to be kept out of the top 4......even if OSU is still in the #2 spot.

Two Big 10 teams will be in the top 4. Mark it down.

Last edited by FreeSafety
Music City posted:

Fans talk. Players play. 

Everything is automatically contingent on them winning out. But I'm of the mind that the Badgers will not be final 4 even if they win the B1G Championship if they don't get a revenge win. It has to be one of the two- Michigan or OSU. If its Penn State, there is going to be a perception that OSU or Michigan is still better. 

The more I think about it and hear pundit's blathering, the more I think this is the case.

Item 1: Beat Purdue this weekend.

As noted, it's really out of our control.  Obviously nobody was impressed by the huge win over IL.  We need to keep getting huge wins and dominating defensive play even with all the injuries.

Now with Meeechigan loosing their QB, it's going to make this harder for us as far as the polls go.  Fact is, we have to win the B1G.  No way about it and we can't control the rest.

Do Item 1, then beat the goofers, and then all we can do is wait to see who we play and win that game.

Item 1 first.

 

If they don't win the next two games - not to mention the Big Ten championship game- it really doesn't matter.  Take care of your business first. 

Louisville losing was a big deal as was the Washington loss last week. I see the Huskies probably losing one more game either against WSU or in the conference championship game.   Also have to pull for another Clemson loss but that is less likely than Washington losing another game. 

Badgers control it themselves.

If they win out and win the Big Ten they are not going to be shut out of the playoff. Two Big Ten teams will be in.

MI lost to an unranked team and remained at #3?????? That will be corrected in the vote next week. Then if MI loses to OSU.....MI will drop down to around 10 or 11 in the rankings.

I think there is a good chance if they win out they are in.  However, a 1 loss Clemson and 1 loss Washington team in the mix would make things a lot more interesting. I think you still have to hope one of those teams loses another one. 

Then there is a team like Oklahoma that is coming on strong at the end of the year.  If it came down to OU and UW as two loss teams that could be a problem. 

UW isn't sexy and that's always a concern. 

Still fun to even be in a position to talk about it.  Nice distraction from the Packers sucking right now. 

This weeks rankings just came out:

1. Bama

2. O$U

3. Michigan

4.  Clemson

5 Washington

6.  Bucky

7. PSU

8 Oklahoma

9.  Colorado

10. Oklahoma St.

So it kind of shakes out like this I guess.  OSU or Michigan will have 2 losses after their game but will the committee drop down either of them if the game is close?  I kind of wonder if they will? 

Bama has Auburn but it is at Bama so I don't expect an upset

Clemson has a so so South Carolina team

Washington has the apple cup with Wash St.

If Bucky takes care of the Goofers and Wash St beats Washington, and if the committee drops down Michigan or OSU further down than UW, and UW wins the BIG title they could make it.  If you told me UW would have been in the running this late back in August with their schedule I would have laughed at you.

WHEN OSU beats MI.....MI will have a loss to OSU and a loss to unranked Iowa.

WI will have losses to #2 OSU and #3 MI and have beaten Iowa.

You cannot lose to an unranked team and be #3 ahead of WI IMO.

If WI beats PS...Bucky will have ANOTHER Top 10 win.

Washington's reseme isn't even close....if WI beats PS and wins the Big Ten.

FreeSafety posted:

WHEN OSU beats MI.....MI will have a loss to OSU and a loss to unranked Iowa.

WI will have losses to #2 OSU and #3 MI and have beaten Iowa.

You cannot lose to an unranked team and be #3 ahead of WI IMO.

If WI beats PS...Bucky will have ANOTHER Top 10 win.

Washington's reseme isn't even close....if WI beats PS and wins the Big Ten.

**** yeah! 

Preach Free!!

Hell Yeah!  We will now all be able to "preach free" now that the elections are over with.....at last, for the first time in 8 years we will ALL be able to freely say what we want without being denigrated for having a traditional American opinion.

oops.....sorry......is that too political, mods? ....or......is it just below that threshold like other posters who don't get their politics deleted...I'm still trying to find that fine line.

hmmm....being able to give an opinion without being criticized or shouted down is now "stupid" ?

but, I digress....

Goldie:  I feel just the opposite.  If this was a Gary Anderson-led team, then yes, I would be worried.  But I do believe Chryst has this team very focused on one thing:   winning this game.   If anything Illinois and Purdue might have been let downs....but over the past 2 weeks we've seen this team as taking on game at a time.  We are a better TEAM than Minnesota.  Our defense will keep the Goofs in check.  It's just the offense I'm worried about.  IF we can muster enough drives and points from the Offense, I believe it will be a blowout.

Last edited by SanDiegoPackFan
SanDiegoPackFan posted:

hmmm....being able to give an opinion without being criticized or shouted down is now "stupid" ?

but, I digress....

Goldie:  I feel just the opposite.  If this was a Gary Anderson-led team, then yes, I would be worried.  But I do believe Chryst has this team very focused on one thing:   winning this game.   If anything Illinois and Purdue might have been let downs....but over the past 2 weeks we've seen this team as taking on game at a time.  We are a better TEAM than Minnesota.  Our defense will keep the Goofs in check.  It's just the offense I'm worried about.  IF we can muster enough drives and points from the Offense, I believe it will be a blowout.

A blowout??  Now that's what I'm talking about...it's all I've ever wanted with all my teams....a crushing if you will.  Thanks SDPF.    

SanDiegoPackFan posted:

Hell Yeah!  We will now all be able to "preach free" now that the elections are over with.....at last, for the first time in 8 years we will ALL be able to freely say what we want without being denigrated for having a traditional American opinion.

oops.....sorry......is that too political, mods? ....or......is it just below that threshold like other posters who don't get their politics deleted...I'm still trying to find that fine line.

When were you not able to preach what you want?  Who stopped you?  What's this traditional American opinion of which you speak? 

 

Yeah Baby!  I just finished watching the game (TiVO).   Took the kids up to Mount Laguna and Julian today and with the rain and traffic, it took forever to get back home.

Let's beat Penn State first and then let the chips fall where they may.   Beating PSU means at least the Rose Bowl.   I would love to be in the top 4 for the playoffs.    Our Defense and coaching is definitely Championship caliber.   But, I just don't know if the committee believes our offense is a top 4 playoff offense.   Let's win the B1G Championship and then hope.  

Go Bucky!

 

 

Hey, I'm with ya Cave.  I'm just trying to guess what the committee will look at when/if it comes down to Alabama, O$U, Clemson, Washington, Wisconsin, and even Michigan.  That's all.   As was mentioned earlier, Bucky is not as "sexy" to the national media like some other schools (at this time anyway).   Maybe that will change after the B1G Championship.

I think they would realize it'd be hard to ignore the B1G champion.

Let's just go win that and see how the chips fall.

Either way, it's going to be a special bowl season for Bucky.  Nobody expected them to do so well with the coaching changes and everything.  This season has been amazing and I am damn happy to have been able to watch.

The rest upcoming is gravy to me as a fan.

It's a foregone conclusion that they have to win next week in Indy. So that said, if they win they're in. The winner of the B1G title game is in. Period. 

ESPN is touting chaos but I don't think so. Washington is not in, even if they win next weekend in the Pac12 title game. Their schedule doesn't warrant it. They don't have a signature win, and until they beat WSU Friday, they didn't have a win against a ranked opponent. 

Really, OSU is already in. Their win today sealed it. There's no way the committee leaves them out- they're the only team in the country that has a chance to challenge 'Bama. 

That leaves 1 spot- and Clemson gets it if they will the ACC title game. The committee will want the marquee star factor in there. 

 If Clemson loses it probably opens the door for Washington if they beat Colorado. I'm guessing the committee will only want one 2 loss team, which coming from the B1G that's ok as they're the best conference this year. If Colorado beats Washington, then there will have to be 2 two loss teams. Then it gets really messy. 

Im guessing it'll be 'Bama, OSU, B1G champ, and Clemson. 

I think Ohio State is in no matter what.  I hate that team but 4 wins against top 10 teams is nothing to sneeze at. Where it could get interesting if it's Penn State that wins the BT championship game and Clemson and Washington don't lose but Penn State beat Ohio State so I think they are also in and in that scenario Washington is probably out. 

The Wisconsin resume doesn't look as strong now as LSU and Michigan State and Nebraska aren't as good as their rankings were when they played them and unfortunately they aren't "sexy" so even if they win I don't think they are a sure bet to make it in.  I think they deserve it but this is where that loss to Ohio State could come back to haunt them.  

The worst case scenario is UW wins and they end up in a Jan 1 bowl game - such as the Rose Bowl.  That would be a hell of a consolation prize.  

Michigan really had their way with the UW OL and unlike Ohio State the Badgers couldn't run the ball as well.  I actually think UW would have a better chance of beating the Bucks than UM.   Either scenario wouldn't be very likely. 

Penn State is probably the best draw of the three.  However, UW playing and beating a Michigan or Ohio State in the BT championship game would have made UW a lock for the final four. 

Now they need help IMO as Ohio State is in for sure I think? 

I don't see Wisconsin if they win the game as a shoe in without help meaning a loss by Washington

FreeSafety posted:

The Big Ten is the best conference in the country. If the winner of the best conference doesn't get in there is something wrong.

This sounds like it should be true. The problem is that the most obviously best teams are not playing in the Championship game. That does not mean that the winner (especially the Badgers) should not be included should they win, but by losing both of those games, they left the door open. It looks better on paper if the people in the playoff are all zero or one loss teams.

Michigan maybe should be the other two loss team if any in this scenario. I am not sure if the Badgers can beat them, but if they did, they certainly would have been in if that was the scenario that had played out.

Pretty sure Washington beat Stanford and they are ranked 17 this week.  Utah probably should be ranked and that's a quality win.  Colorado is a top 10 team and if they beat them I think it's going to be hard for the committee to keep them out instead of a 2 loss UW team. 

The Iowa win is looking better now (they are ranked this week) but LSU and Nebraska wins don't look nearly as good.  The Michigan State win now is meaningless.   

Beating Penn State would be their best win of the year and I think gives UW the 4 seed if Washington does lose.  If both teams win I think UW has a 50/50 shot as they did not beat Ohio State or Michigan.  Beat either team and we aren't even having this discussion. 

 

 

I do not think so. Washington plays in a down conference and has no signature wins. The Badgers beat LSU, who was the only team to compete with 'Bama. And while the MSU win is no longer a factor, beating Nebraska and Iowa on the road, and taking OSU to overtime and Michigan to the brink is better than anything Washington has done. To then complete it with a win over Penn State to be Conference champion in the toughest conference in football this year clinches it. There will be 2 B1G teams in it.  

The real battle is Clemson and Washington- if Clemson stumbles that is the door Washington could sneak through. 

The Badgers have to beat Penn State no matter what.   I also think Washington has to beat Colorado for them to be safe.  Same thing with Clemson but their path is easier than either Wisconsin or Washington. 

Washington beating a top 10 Colorado team cancels out UW beating a top 10 Penn State team. That's where it could get interesting in the comparisons.   Washington has one loss to a top 15 USC team. The Badgers have two losses to top 10 teams.  The Badgers beat LSU and Iowa and Nebraska - all teams ranked in the 20s.  Washington beat Stanford - a top 20 team- and both Utah and WSU which are comparable to the Iowa and Nebraska wins. 

So the way I see it - it's how the committee values 1 loss (versus 2 losses) and overall strength of schedule.  I also think there could be the "eyeball test" in that Washington overall has looked better and more convincing. 

The only way I see UW is assured of a spot is for Washington to lose and UW to win.  That means both teams have 2 losses and it would be tough to deny the Badgers there.   

Tschmack posted:

The Badgers have to beat Penn State no matter what.   I also think Washington has to beat Colorado for them to be safe.  Same thing with Clemson but their path is easier than either Wisconsin or Washington. 

  

 This makes no sense.  If Washington beats Colorado they have only 1 loss. How does this make Badgers safe except safely in the Rose Bowl? 

phaedrus posted:

I don't get this Wisconsin would lose to Michigan stuff.  If Speight throws 2 int's and fumbles once like he just did...

This is what kind of gets me.  There is now a mentality in things I have been hearing and reading that now apparently they also want a "better game".  So is it the whole body of work or is it who would give a better game?  It seems to shift around constantly if they are talking about a blue blood program. And no one will say it but I guarantee you that they want as many blue bloods in the playoff as they possibly can and will use any excuse in the book to make it happen.

Think about if for a second if you took away the name Michigan would they be ranked as high as they are?  They lose to an unranked Iowa team, lose to OSU (which to me was a playoff game), and wont even play for their conference championship.  

Anyhow enough of my whining...  This how I see it coming out.

Bama even if they would somehow lose to Florida is as much of a lock as you can possibly be

O$U is in I just don't see there being a way they drop from #2 to #5 not going to happen

Clemson could drop a game to Va Tech.  Tech is not great but you just never know and Clemson has been living on the edge.  But I think they win and get the #3 spot

Where it will get nuts is if Washington doesn't win this weekend.  you will have Washington, Michigan, UW/PSU, Colorado, and Oklahoma all with 2 losses.  so who goes in at that point?

I also have to think Michigan is still in the discussion regardless of the BT championship game especially if a Clemson or Washington loses again. 

UM might have 2 losses, but they own head to head comparisons by beating UW and throttling Penn State.  That's 2 top 10 wins not including the Colorado win that looks pretty good right now. 

 

I'm not sure there is truly a path for Bucky to make the playoffs anymore. If they beat PSU and Clemson AND Washington both lose then you're talking about Michigan moving back into the playoffs and I just don't think the committee will put 3 B1G teams in a 4 team playoff...especially when the Pac12 winner (in this scenario Colorado) is also a top 10 team with 2 losses. If Oklahoma (also 2 losses) won convincingly over OK St., becoming the Big 12 champ, then I believe they would also be in the playoff conversation in this scenario. Wisconsin has a legit case being the #6 team, the B1G champ (in this scenario), and  their only losses coming to OSU and UMich, but again I don't think the committee will put 3 B1G teams in there. 

If either Clemson or Washington lose while Bucky wins convincingly, then the committee should move Wisconsin in to the playoff over Michigan. I'm not sure that happens though. 

If Wisconsin wins the B1G, they're in. I don't get what that's so hard to see. 

Washington does not have a signature win. WSU is not a signature win. The only other team they played was USC, and they got beat. If you watched any of the PAC 12, its mediocre at best. It's a very top heavy conference,and none of them stepped forward with quality non-conference games. 

The Wisconsin win over LSU is better than any win Washington has on their schedule.  LSU has 4 losses, all to teams in top 15, and they're the only team to give 'Bama a game.  

Michigan does have a pretty strong case. They have a better case than Washington does. You gotta play good teams, and teams that don't should be punished for it. The top of the B1G has done that. OSU played Oklahoma, Michigan played Colorado, Wisconsin played LSU... the only team that didn't schedule a quality non-conference opponent is Penn State. Their rise to the B1G championship game is really quite flukey. 

Really that's what the conversation should be about- not about if Wisconsin/Penn St. gets bumped by Washington, but if Michigan should bump Clemson/Washington. 

As much as I'd like Bucky to get to the playoff, I think it's unlikely they get in. I think they'll either take Ohio State or the UW/Penn State winner, but not both. I think it's Alabama, Clemson, Washington, Big10 team.

If they are really serious about the conference championship games, then Ohio State should be out, but I think they'll take OSU over Wisconsin or Penn State.

Even if Clemson or Washington lose, I think they'll be a lot of momentum for Oklahoma to go if they beat Oklahoma State. Oklahoma hasn't beaten anyone that good, but many will argue that taking two teams from the Big10 (especially when one has two losses) is something that shouldn't happen with other conference champs out there with the same number of losses.

Computer Strength of schedule rankings as of today.

OSU 4

Alabama 10

Michigan 11

Clemson 21

Wisconsin 25

Penn State 28

Colorado 42

Oklahoma 54

Washington 69

Those bottom three just don't deserve equal rating when in discussion with the top six.

Washington's strength of schedule ranks 69 out of 128 in the country. C'mon man!

FreeSafety posted:

You can't say Oklahoma should get in because they won their conference but WI should be out even though they won the best conference in the country.

I completely agree that they should be in for winning the best conference in the country.  But, we better brace ourselves for not getting in and the committee picking O$U instead.  We are going to see what the committee values more head to head matchup, conference titles, or the "eye test".   They are going to pick O$U because they can use the excuse that they beat UW and have a good resume.  Also, I just cant see a scenario that they drop Ohio St. 3 spots to #5 to leave them out. 

With all that being said lets worry about Indy first and beat PSU.  If they win that game and head to Pasadena that isn't that bad of a consolation prize and none of us thought they would even get that chance.

Hungry5 posted:

Is that the SOS the committee uses? I know there are multiple ways to calculate SOS.

Good point. I don't know so I looked at a few of them.

Colley MatrixSagarin and Congrove

OSU 4, 15, 3     Average 7.33

Alabama 10, 7, 6     Ave 7.66

Wisconsin 25, 20, 4     Ave 16.33

Penn St 28, 39, 15     Ave 27.33

Colorado 42, 23, 17     Ave 27.33

Michigan 11, 33, 41     Ave 28.33

Oklahoma 54, 18, 29     Ave 33.66

Clemson 21, 47, 47     Ave 38.33

Washington 69, 60, 43     Ave 57.33

My point remains: Washington hasn't been tested anywhere near what the other top teams have. And when they were, they lost by two scores at home to a team ranked well below them.

 

Last edited by FreeSafety

I think the committee factors in multiple criteria, but at the end of the day they pick who they believe are the best 4 teams in the country. I agree that the B1G winner SHOULD go, along with the SEC and PAC12 winners as those teams have gone through a gauntlet of inter-conference play AND won a championship outright. The Big 12 needs a championship game to legitimize their champion. 

If you want to compare quality wins:

-Michigan has the best argument with 4 wins vs. Top 25 teams with 3 of those against now Top 10 teams. They have the best claim of 2 loss teams IMO.

-Clemson has the next best argument having 4 wins against Top 25 teams with 1 of them being a Top 15 team. Beating VTech would give them 5 Top 25 wins, that's pretty solid. 

-Penn St. has 2 wins vs. Top 25 teams with 1 of those wins against a Top 10 team. Giving them another win against a Top 10 team, Wisconsin, AND being the B1G champ would make it hard to leave them out. 

-Wisconsin has a good argument with 3 wins vs. Top 25 teams, keep in mind though that those wins are against teams ranked 21, 22, 23...not exactly signature wins. A win over Penn St. would be that signature win they need on a resume.

-Oklahoma has 1 win vs. a Top 15 team, West Virginia, which is moderately good, but not incredible. Beating OK St. would give them another Top 15 win, that's not bad but I'm not sure it's enough to leapfrog the B1G or Pac 12 champ.

-Washington has 1 win vs. Top 25 team, Stanford, who I wouldn't call a signature win either this year. Keep in mind that they have wins over a couple of teams on the periphery of the top 25 like Utah and Washington St. Those wins are as impressive as wins over Iowa and Nebraska, which is to say they a little bit impressive. Colorado would be a signature win. 

-Colorado has 1 win vs. Top 25 team, Stanford. Same boat as Washington. 

Pac 12 champ Washington vs. B1G champ Wisconsin would be a tough choice. Two teams with an equally mediocre amount of quality wins whose only losses are to now Top 10 teams. Ultimately I think record makes the difference, giving Washington the edge, but I can see arguments either way.

Grave Digger posted:

Pac 12 champ Washington vs. B1G champ Wisconsin would be a tough choice. Two teams with an equally mediocre amount of quality wins whose only losses are to now Top 10 teams. Ultimately I think record makes the difference, giving Washington the edge, but I can see arguments either way.

Great post.

But in this last part I think this is where strength of schedule has to come into play. If you are going to use record to give Washington the edge, I cannot agree. Not with their weak SOS and the way WI had to face a gauntlet of quality opponents week after week.

And WI looked and played well in their only two losses.

Holding MI to 14 at the Big House after they had just put up 45 and 49 on two other now top 10 teams and being in the game right up until an amazing 4th quarter interception.

Taking OSU to OT and being one missed tackle on a sack away from winning.

I give those two tough performances even in losses more credit than I do some of the wins that Washington has over very weak opponents.

Grave Digger posted:

 

-Washington has 1 win vs. Top 25 team, Stanford, who I wouldn't call a signature win either this year. Keep in mind that they have wins over a couple of teams on the periphery of the top 25 like Utah and Washington St. Those wins are as impressive as wins over Iowa and Nebraska, which is to say they a little bit impressive. Colorado would be a signature win. 

If you're just looking at numbers next to their team names, sure. But who have these teams played? What are their strength of schedules?

You will see that WSU got beat by E. Washington and doesn't have a single good win on their record- I don't even know how they're ranked. They fattened up on the weak underlings of the conference and lost every game against a team that didn't suck.

Utah has losses to Cal and Oregon (both really bad teams) in addition to losses to Washington and Colorado. The only win they seem to have that is of note is against an OK BYU team. I do not know why they were ever ranked either. They also got fat on their own terrible schedule and conference.

The Pac 12 is just bad this year. Only Washington, Colorado, USC are even decent- that's it. Stanford got exposed like MSU did, but because they play in the Pac 12 they were able to recover to get 8 wins. The middle teams below them are only winning because they scheduled dog crap in the non-conference and they beat up on some horrible conference teams. The quality of play has also been bad- look at the points given up in that conference this year, even by the good teams. Ridiculous.

No, it's a far better argument to make that 3 B1G teams make it than the B1G Champion be left out. I said earlier that Washington might be considered if Clemson loses- the more I think about it, the more sense it makes that Michigan be considered ahead of Washington.

Grave Digger posted:

-Washington has 1 win vs. Top 25 team, Stanford, who I wouldn't call a signature win either this year. Keep in mind that they have wins over a couple of teams on the periphery of the top 25 like Utah and Washington St. Those wins are as impressive as wins over Iowa and Nebraska, which is to say they a little bit impressive. Colorado would be a signature win. 

Colley looks like they give a quality rank to each win or loss. Look at them side by side in the link. The Utah win has a quality rank below Bucky's win vs Minnesota and way below the wins over Iowa and Nebraska.

Wisconsin's loss to OSU is very near the quality rank of Washington's win vs Portland St. 

WI total quality number is 344

Washington is at 361

Lower is better.....OSU is at 275

My point every which way you look to compare Wisconsin and Washington....WI looks to have the better reseme.

 

Last edited by FreeSafety

The B1G is a tougher gauntlet for sure. If things were being decided now I think Wisconsin has a better case than Washington, but if Washington pounds Colorado (a top 10 team) and Wisconsin does not win convincingly, which they haven't always done this year, then I think the committee sides with Washington. B1G doesn't have much representation on the committee besides Alvarez. I'm sure he will make his case, but I'm not sure it will be enough. Ultimately that's what it comes down to, we can compare quality wins and SOS and all the data available, but if the majority of the committee sides with Washington over Wisconsin or Michigan then that is that. If I was filling out the playoffs right now I would go Alabama, OSU, Clemson, Michigan. I think those 4 teams are playing the best football right now. 

In the end whoever is in that 4th spot has to go get slaughtered by Bama, so maybe it is better to be left out and go win the Rose Bowl against Colorado! This might be the best Bama team we have seen under Saban, they're dominant. 

Last edited by Grave Digger

I heard what might be the most logical argument so far on the Big Ten contenders, but it's not necessarily good for Wisconsin. 

If you were to rank the top 4 teams in the Big Ten (forget West v East) right now UW is 3rd.  Even with a win v Penn State I'm not sure they leapfrog Michigan.  Why?  They've already beaten 3 top 10 teams including both UW and Penn State. 

The other factor is Michigan is just a better team and more equipped to handle an Alabama or Clemson or even Ohio State in the playoffs. Plus they have star power.  That matters IMO. 

I am as big of a Wisconsin homer as there is but I can't see the Badgers making it in unless the stars align - which is possible but not likely.  

Still a hell of a season no matter what 

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