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@Pakrz posted:

May have missed it earlier... but NFLN said Antoine Winfield injured his ankle in practice Thursday and is now a game time decision.  

https://www.tampabay.com/sport...days-nfc-title-game/

Thanks -- I missed that earlier. They need him way worse than AntBrown.

@R MaN posted:

Green Bay 28 v Tampa Bay 24

The exact score Cynthia Frelund predicted

@tsr86free posted:

If directed at me, I don’t give a fuck. The shit seemed relevant to the game.

It wasn't -- he was talking about the "experts" picking the winner

Last edited by Boris

So many predictions I've seen are 7 points or less and most of those are 4 points or less.

I think it's going to be a little more of a spread. I see something similar to last week but with a different player. MVS drops a TD pass from Rodgers in the 3rd quarter. With the Packers up 24-17 in the 4th, Rodgers hits MVS for the dagger. 31-17 final. Brady throws one right to Tramon as they try to start a comeback with 7 minutes left.

@Music City posted:

The main concern I have is what seems to happen every time a receiver fucks up and drops a big play- Rodgers goes into a funk where he starts forcing passes or throws a few off target. It’s something that even showed up last week after Lazard’s drop.

he kept going back last week. EQ dropped, mvs dropped, lazard dropped.  EQ - key 3rd down, mvs- multiple key conversions, lazard - dagger.  i would agree but he has come around, I think its going to be ok today...

All week it seems like the talking heads are really favoring the Bucs.  Some of it might be related to creating more buzz and interest and drama but one point in general seems really stupid and meaningless- Rodgers is 1-3 in NFCCG.

I mean, in 2 of those games the Packers were clearly overmatched defensively (ATL and SF) and the Packers should have beaten Seattle.  It’s just a lazy take if you ask me.


As good as Brady has been in his career he’s somewhat mortal playing road playoff games away from Gillette Stadium.    Yet no one wants to talk about that.

For all the talk about the QBs in this game, I think it will be the defenses that determine the outcome.   I think both offenses will move the ball and score points.   It’s the team that can force turnovers and limit drives that will put them in a position to win.   Tampa had the upper hand in the first matchup, but I think things will be different today.

My concern- and it’s the only concern- is special teams.   The Packers need to hang in there and not give up big returns or screw up in the kicking or punting game.   It’s not a big ask. Do your fucking jobs.  Make tackles.  Good punts.  Make the FGs and XPs.   I have a lot of faith in Crosby, but not much faith in anything else with the STs.

Still, I just have this feeling today it’s about the Packers and would not surprise me to see them come out and play well and beat Tampa by double digits.  They just seem to have this quiet confidence about them and won’t be denied.  Hope that comes true so they can get another shot at a title.

@Music City posted:

The main concern I have is what seems to happen every time a receiver fucks up and drops a big play- Rodgers goes into a funk where he starts forcing passes or throws a few off target.

Disagree

@Tschmack posted:

My concern- and it’s the only concern- is special teams. 

Bucs ST's are just as shitty as the Packers -- Whoever sucks the least.... wins. The Packers don't punt anymore, they score or go for it on 4th down.

@EC Pack posted:

Maybe whichever ST sucks the least? 

@michiganjoe posted:

AR has more picks than touchdowns in conference championship games and the reality is he hasn't played well. Today is a legacy moment for him to turn it all around with a good performance and win.

AR has 89 picks in 6587 attempts in the regular season where he throws a pick every 74 passes.

In the last decade during the regular season, he's attempted 5549 and thrown 67 picks. That's a pick every 82 passes.

In 4 NFC title games he's thrown 148 passes and thrown 7 picks. That's a pick every 21 passes.

In all other playoff games, he's thrown 5 picks in 549 passes. That's 1 every 110 passes.

He's definitely been worse in NFC Title games than in any other setting other than maybe road games at Tampa Bay (5 picks in 110 attempts - every 22 passes). He's thrown 2 pick sixes at Tampa Bay (every 55 passes) and 1 pick six in the over 7,200 passes the rest of his career.

The weird thing is that I don't ever remember thinking Rodgers' poor play was the reason we lost any of those games.  The explanation of the title game interceptions is that every one of those games so far has been played on the road and three of them have been against dominant defenses (Chicago, Seattle, and SF). In his home playoff games, Rodgers has thrown 15 TDs and 1 interception (his last pass against the Giants after the 2011 season in which the game was already over). On the road, he's thrown 27 TDs and 11 interceptions.

This is Rodgers' performance in home playoff games. Amazingly in 13 years as a starting QB, he's only had 7 home playoff games. The Packers are 5-2 in those games.

154 for 243, 63.0%, 8.0 YPA, 15 TDs, 1 interception.

QB rating: 106.8

No wonder he's talked about how much it means to get a home NFC title game.

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