Series 3: Raptors vs. Bucks (ECF)

Yeah, always pretty emotional in the games threads. It's the same way in my living room during a game !!! Not sure where the word fanatic comes from .....No wonder my wife hates watching with me

Bledsoe's play was maddening. He just doesn't seem to have situational awareness. Raptors are not in the ECF because of their offense, he is playing right into their defensive strategy by jacking up 3 pointers when his 3pt% is dismal. He is best when he penetrates. He should have sat in OT.

Middelton did play solid defense, but he was just awful on offense. Missing open shots/layups, lazy passes that we've seen before, and even looked somewhat selfish at times. 

Giannis was great on defense and the glass, but had a forgettable night on offense. For the amount he touches the ball, to have only 12 points but 8 turnovers and poop his pants at the freethrow line looked to be one of his worst games this year. I don't understand the lack of adjustment. Get him on the baseline and create some easier looks. 

11/48 from the field
2/15 from the 3 pt arc
8/17 from the FT line
16 turnovers

That was our Big 3 last night. Woof 

The Crusher posted:

I think they will have to let Middleton walk if he is offered over 25 million.  I would much rather push the money to Brogdon and Lopez.  This is the time to step up and these guys need to shoot better.  All these guys benefit from the attention to Giannis but the Bucks need to make sure that they have reliable shooters surrounding him.  Bledsoe was extended but his poor shooting scares me.  I don't think he's clutch.  I would like Bud to consider starting Hill or Brogdon.

 

 

If they make the Finals, there is no way they let Middleton walk. If they lose this series, it probably comes into the discussion.

He's had a lousy shooting stretch the last 3 games - 4 for 15 from 3 - but he is being guarded primarily by Kawhi Leonard and is really making Kawhi work on offense to get his points. Despite being under 30% from 3 the last 3 games, he's still at 43% in the playoffs from deep. 

Where Middleton really gets into trouble is when he has to create offense against double teams in the half court. When he gets isolated on as shorter guy and can back him down methodically and shoot the turnaround, he's great. When he can step into 3s in transition or catch and shoot from 3, he's excellent. He's actually a poor man's version of Klay Thompson (who also struggles when he has to create his own offense when facing guys up and dribbling in the half court). The turnovers occur in situations like last night when he has to face up a guy like Kawhi Leonard and make something happen. He often gets picked clean when crossing over (which is why he tends to back guys in). If Giannis is still in the game in double OT, he initiates those possessions with a full shot clock and time to set up drives. Giannis was terrible at that last night, but you still go to him for that instead of Middleton in crunch time. 

The key is to not put him in situations that accentuate that weakness. The problem is that you still can't isolate Giannis at the end of games or at the end of the shot clock with less than 5 seconds to get a shot off and expect it to work well. Giannis can't consistently hit the 15 footer to win a game and when he drives it's often the second pass off the Giannis action that gets the open shot (Giannis gets a lot of hockey assists).  Middleton can hit that 15 footer in isolation.

The problem Bud has right now is that normally their best guy other than Giannis to initiate an offensive set to get penetration and get the defense scrambling is Bledsoe and he's been G league level on offense. That leaves Middleton to do this and it causes problems for the offense because he ends up dribbling away half the shot clock to try to set his guy up. He's not a quick twitch guy - he's methodical. 

Middleton is going to get paid by someone big money this summer. If the Bucks lose him, I don't think they have a way to replace him. You'd be looking at Danny Green and Trevor Ariza, who are both poor man's versions of Middleton. 

Giannis' first free throw was at the 8:52 mark of the 4th goddamn Quarter... No wonder he was thrown off. Dude would go to the hole, get fouled 3 or 4 times, no call. Same happened to Middleton, Lopez, Brogdon and Bledsoe... At some point, the refs need to call the game according to the rules of the game. Marc Gasol shouldn't get to commit 20 fouls. ****er had 3 in the Q2. 

Whatever. Bucks are going to be pissed, and will light it up on the Raptors in game 4. Everybody except Connaughton and Lopez shot like shit. Bucks very easily should have had this game. Middleton, Brogdon, Ersan, Mirotic and Bledsoe have to look in the mirror. WTF? C'mon guys! Could have and should have been a very easy win. Make your shots. Make your FTs.

Folks need to accept Bledsoe and Middleton for what they are: streaky shooters with high level defense who can score versus some matchups, and struggle versus others. It’s not a surprise that Middleton is struggling- Toronto has been a bad matchup for him even back to Derozen. And with the way playoff officiating is, Bledsoe has had a tougher time getting into the paint without getting the ball poked or him getting bodied. By game 4 against Boston both guys figured things out, but this matchup is different than Boston, and their playoff experience is higher overall, so they’re tougher and not as willing to give up. That’s what yesterday was about. 

But we know what’s coming- Giannis having a bad game is almost guaranteed to mean he’s going to annihilate Toronto next game. He’s that level of player. 

We saw the effect of Boston winning game one and all the critics came out of the woodwork and all that did was piss them off.  To a lesser extent, the same thing is happening now and I expect the Bucks will channel that negative energy and play much better tomorrow night.  

While Toronto did win a game you have to believe in their own minds they are not sure they can win this series.  I mean, Kyle Lowry sure didn’t seem hyped up after the game when asked about it.  They know they played well and Milwaukee did not and they barely won. 

If the Raptors bear down and get the W then it’s on but that still gives Milwaukee 2 of the last 3 at home.  I just do not see Toronto beating them 3 of the next 4 games.   This team has been so consistently good all year (including the playoffs) that anything other than a solid effort Tuesday night would be a new experience. 

I also wonder the effect on Kahwi logging all those minutes while seemingly injured.  Milwaukee needs to come out strong in Game 4 and make the Raptors catch them much like game 2.  If that happens they may not have the energy or will to finish strong. 

Well said.

The Crusher posted:

I think they will have to let Middleton walk if he is offered over 25 million.  I would much rather push the money to Brogdon and Lopez.  This is the time to step up and these guys need to shoot better.  All these guys benefit from the attention to Giannis but the Bucks need to make sure that they have reliable shooters surrounding him.  Bledsoe was extended but his poor shooting scares me.  I don't think he's clutch.  I would like Bud to consider starting Hill or Brogdon.

 

 

I concur.

Kawhi Leonard was sidelined for a year with some thigh issue... what leg was it? Was it his left? He couldn’t push off that leg last night at all- and the Bucks didn’t exploit it... not enough anyway. Brogdon took him to the hole a few times but they needed to punish him. 

It’s entirely possible they could resign Brogdon, Lopez, and Mirotic for what it would cost to resign just Middleton.  Let’s not forget they still have Connaugton and Sterling Brown and DJ Wilson in the fold. 

Not sure George Hill and his 18MM salary would return as that is why they drafted DiVencenzo and Brogdon could also rotate in at the PG spot. 

Maybe you go after a JJ Redick to help with outside shooting?  

Music City posted:

Kawhi Leonard was sidelined for a year with some thigh issue... what leg was it? Was it his left? He couldn’t push off that leg last night at all- and the Bucks didn’t exploit it... not enough anyway. Brogdon took him to the hole a few times but they needed to punish him. 

They couldn't take advantage of Kawhi as much as they would have liked because  he was guarding Giannis and, even with Kawhi on him, they were sending doubles. Giannis almost never got him one on one inside 10 feet. When Kawhi was on Brogdon, they let him try to handle him in single coverage and Brogdon blew by him. 

I think Kawhi's major injury last year was the same thing Anthony Davis had last year - which was Lakersitis. Kawhi blatantly quit on the Spurs last year - dropped all communication with one of the classiest organizations in sports. I don't get the love for him from all the NBA types after he pulled that last year. I love the Fiserv Forum "Future Clipper" chants in Game 2. 

Tschmack posted:

It’s entirely possible they could resign Brogdon, Lopez, and Mirotic for what it would cost to resign just Middleton.  Let’s not forget they still have Connaugton and Sterling Brown and DJ Wilson in the fold. 

Not sure George Hill and his 18MM salary would return as that is why they drafted DiVencenzo and Brogdon could also rotate in at the PG spot. 

Maybe you go after a JJ Redick to help with outside shooting?  

Brogdon is probably going to get a monster offer in restricted free agency himself. He's at least going to get 15 million a year if not more. Lopez will get at least 12-15 on a short term deal. Lopez and Brogdon are making a COMBINED 4.8 million this year. They may be looking at 30 million just to keep them next year. Mirotic is already making 12 million and may get a similar number next year. 

Tough to say what the market will bear this offseason.  Some guys will end up making a bunch of money. Brogdon probably the most of the three given his age and overall level of play.  

Lopez could get something in the 10MM range but it will be shorter term.  Teams have shown a willingness to pay more for less years unless you are a max type guy. 

So the rumors I had heard a couple of months ago was that there was 1 Bucks starter that did not want to come back.  I don't know which guy that would be.  The funny thing was, I figured it was Bledsoe, but then he signed the deal to eliminate him from the list of those who might not want to come back.  

My top candidate for a guy not wanting to come back would be Lopez since he's been in New York or L.A. before and maybe is used to that type of bigger metro area lifestyle.  That said, whichever guy didn't want to come back, maybe this run the Bucks have been on will change their minds about coming back.  

I want them all back, but Middleton is probably the least likely with Lopez 2nd least.  The guy I probably want back more than anyone is Lopez.  When he's combined with Giannis, they make it a nightmare for anyone trying to score in the paint.  Those 2 guys rotating with Ilyasova have helped completely transform the Bucks defense.  

It’s a process and a progression

The Bucks have 3 young promising guys in DJ, Sterling Brown, and DD.  We forget about them because they haven’t really played much down the stretch but they certainly have talent. 

Hill is not coming back at 18MM next year. Lopez won’t come back at 3MM like he’s making this year.  Middleton basically turned down the 13MM player option so he’s due a significant increase.  And then there’s Brogdon who you could argue is their 3rd best player.  As a RFA it’s possible he could bail although the Bucks could match any offer. 

A lot of questions to be answered but right now I want them to win the East and give Golden State a run for their money. 

 Two short years ago the Bucks were paying Greg Monroe $17M,  John Henson $12.5M, Matthew Dellavedova $10M,  Mirza Teletovic $10.5M, Miles Plumlee $12.5M, Spencer Hawes $6M.....and "still"contributing to Larry Sanders pot fund. 

Giannis was the bright spot. 

Jason Kidd was coach, Jabari Parker was blowing out ACL's, John Hammond had bailed and the Bucks are ridiculed or hiring some kid named Jim Horst. 

 Point of all that is,  we go from that hot mess to where we are now .....a top coach and loaded roster in just two years. I am confident Horst will make the right moves to maintain a fluid roster. Gotta believe Brogdon is part of the long range plan. 

Focus on Game 4 boys. Let's cheer the Bucks in to the Finals then worry about next season in July or later.

Now that GSW has swept Portland - Bucks have to win this in 5 to have a shot. They need the rest.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucks blow them out.

phaedrus posted:

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucks blow them out.

It depends on what the adjustment to Leonard guarding Giannis is. The statistics all back up how effective that was (and in fairness to Giannis they were still doubling even when Leonard was on him). If that strategy continues to work, the Bucks are in for a dogfight and a long series. If they counter that with something that works well, the series is probably over in 5. 

Packdog posted:

 Two short years ago the Bucks were paying Greg Monroe $17M,  John Henson $12.5M, Matthew Dellavedova $10M,  Mirza Teletovic $10.5M, Miles Plumlee $12.5M, Spencer Hawes $6M.....and "still"contributing to Larry Sanders pot fund. 

Giannis was the bright spot. 

Jason Kidd was coach, Jabari Parker was blowing out ACL's, John Hammond had bailed and the Bucks are ridiculed or hiring some kid named Jim Horst. 

 Point of all that is,  we go from that hot mess to where we are now .....a top coach and loaded roster in just two years. I am confident Horst will make the right moves to maintain a fluid roster. Gotta believe Brogdon is part of the long range plan. 

 

Great post to put things in perspective. 

A couple points. First, Jabari Parker blowing out his ACLs was in retrospect one of the best things that happened to the franchise. Jabari seemed like a good person for the community and was happy to be in Milwaukee, but even with good knees his aversion to playing defense was never going to let him be a top player on a NBA title contender. If he'd have stayed healthy, the Bucks might have felt forced to pay close to a max contract for a guy that would average 25 (but give up 30 points on the defensive end). They'd be like the Wolves with Andrew Wiggins. 

Jabari can still salvage a decent career with a change in attitude. His role should be a Mirotic-like one where he is a bench guy that comes in and provides instant offense and at least tries to get in the way on defense. Terrence Ross comes to mind as the comparable. 

Second, the Larry Sanders pot fund still counted 2 million dollars against the cap this year. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/milwaukee-bucks/cap/

Out of left field question for you guys who follow the NBA more closely than I do---what are the chances of Gianniss staying in Milwaukee on his next contract?

I'll hang-up and listen.

I won't consider myself a huge expert but was a full season ticket holder this year so have a pretty good feel for the team.  Giannis is so completely different from some other superstars that I think the Bucks have a legitimate chance to keep him.  I think he likes the current situation he's in so the Bucks will have a fair shot at keeping him.

That said, who knows, maybe the lure of some other bigger market will eventually make him decide to move on, but I think he's got to like the situation he's in right now.  New likable coach, new arena, seems to like Milwaukee just fine, I think he's in play to stay with the Bucks for awhile if things don't just completely fall apart around him.  

Blair Kiel posted:

Out of left field question for you guys who follow the NBA more closely than I do---what are the chances of Gianniss staying in Milwaukee on his next contract?

I'll hang-up and listen.

I've read a lot about it and I think the chances are pretty high. The difference with Giannis is that until 6 years ago he was dirt poor living in Athens. He didn't grow up with people giving him money under the table on the AAU circuit. He refused to work out with LeBron James last summer because he didn't want to do that with the competition. He turned down a role in Space Jam 2 because he didn't want it to interfere with his workout schedule. 

The other thing is that he's almost certain to be able to sign a super-max contract extension next year with the Bucks. He has to meet certain qualifications (the easiest is if he's named the MVP this year, but there are other ways to qualify that he will almost certainly meet). If he does, he can sign a 5 year/250 million dollar contract with the Bucks. The most he sign with someone else for is 4 years/160 million. 

With all that, I'll only breathe easy as a Bucks fan when he actually signs the contract. You can only imagine the behind-the-scenes tampering that is going on right now. There is speculation that the Mavericks drafted his brother and gave him a couple of NBA appearances this year as part of their strategy to lure Giannis there. The Lakers supposedly wanted Jason Kidd on staff because of his personal relationship with Giannis. 

I don't think all the information in this link is 100% accurate (I don't think his girlfriend is originally from Milwaukee) but it captures a lot of the current thinking.

https://dairylandexpress.com/2...ounmpo-will-re-sign/

MichiganPacker2 posted:

phaedrus posted:

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucks blow them out.

It depends on what the adjustment to Leonard guarding Giannis is. The statistics all back up how effective that was (and in fairness to Giannis they were still doubling even when Leonard was on him). If that strategy continues to work, the Bucks are in for a dogfight and a long series. If they counter that with something that works well, the series is probably over in 5. 

Here's hoping that Giannis has a lot to do with it, as well as some scheming changes if appropriate.  I am thinking the Boston series where Game 1 Giannis had difficulty and after that he came out smoking.

Smoking hot. I agree. This should be fun.

Message being sent right now...

Giannis is not going to be denied. 

Look the **** out !!! 

Defense just Swiss cheese right now... 

The Bucks defense better start playing ball or this goes back to Milwaukee 2-2. Barnies are getting WAAAAY too many open shots. You cannot play that passively in a playoff game- you’re giving them everything they want, and letting them feel like they have a chance. 

Refs already asserting themselves 

Toronto getting a lot of love right now FU officials don’t bail them out 

Music City posted:

The Bucks defense better start playing ball or this goes back to Milwaukee 2-2. Barnies are getting WAAAAY too many open shots. You cannot play that passively in a playoff game- you’re giving them everything they want, and letting them feel like they have a chance. 

Several glaring defensive errors - like going way underneath the screen on one of the Powell 3s. 

Middleton and Bledsoe still can't get untracked. 

Giannis can not get calls right now. That's part of the problem on offense. 

Toronto getting too many offensive rebounds 

Fouls just piling up for the Bucks the fix is in 

Game is getting away from them in this stretch. Just terrible defense on that one. Mirotic with the matador. Now down 8. 

Mirotic is disappointing me. 

They better get their shit together or they’re going to lose this game...

Didn’t think Raps could play this well. 

What is that, 10 fouls to 4 now?  **** this.  

Right now, it looks like this series is going to be tied going back to Milwaukee, unless the Bucks up the intensity quickly. The Bucks look shaken and Leonard and Siakam have done NOTHING on offense so far. 

Lowry, Powell, and Ibaka are badly outplaying their counterparts on the Bucks. 

Tschmack posted:

What is that, 10 fouls to 4 now?  **** this.  

7 to 4. Other than Giannis not getting a couple of calls on drives, this is not due to the officials. This is a failure to keep them off the offensive glass and get hustle plays.