Be careful what you wish for.
Coaches that develop All-Pro quarterbacks, win divisional titles regularly and have a Super Bowl win under their credentials don't go on trees.
Adams can't beat Bethel in 3 straight plays. He should be able to win one of these.
3 straight plays of 1on1, WR vs DB action with Adams and Bethel... Quick smoke pass/tackle, fade incomplete, slant tackle... Bethel wins
â Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) December 27, 2015
I think the easiest fix is to find a veteran WR who can still beat CBs (as if those grow on trees). James Jones is a savvy vet, but he's not capable of beating a young, talented CB with anything but a back shoulder catch. Arizona doing brilliant stuff with Larry Fitz who isn't the same athlete he was in the past. He's still got enough in the tank and has the veteran savvy to school young CBs though. GB lacks that. We have the opposite. We have talented young guys with speed but ZERO savvy and an old vet who ONLY has savvy. Cobb is the only one with both qualities. Rodgers is used to seeing Cobb, Nelson, Jones, Quarless all use their experience to find open spots in the D...Adams, Abby, Dick Rodgers, and Janis seem to only be capable of running the exact routes they're told.
If Anquan Boldin or Malcolm Floyd have anything left in the tank I would look at them in the offseason. In hindsight, Wes Welker may have been a good signing this season if he wasn't one hit away from dying. There's a guy who knows how to get open.
MichiganPacker posted:I think the offensive meltdown comes down to 3 things...
Good post (along with many others in this thread).
I would add one other thing, that being Lacy. In his first two seasons he was the bell cow that the offense could always turn to. This season it hasn't happened obviously and a lot of of that is on him (and the coaches for letting it ride). Putting on that extra weight, getting nicked (in part because of his conditioning, IMO) and then out in la-la land for a bit. Throw in Clements and Rodgers reluctance to ride him at critical junctures for good measure.
The OL has made its views clear repeatedly that Eddie needs his touches, Sitton and Lang especially. These are the two guys on the offense above all others that I'd be listening to. This is what juices up the OL and heaven knows the passing game could benefit from 1) Less reliance on passing and 2) Things opening up due to a run emphasis.
If McCarthy doesn't come out with Lacy and Kuhn in a run-heavy game next Sunday, and for that matter the rest of the season, we can kiss any hopes for success sayonara.
With Lacy I think the other big part of it is opportunity for him. He's not always given running plays that are conducive to his style of running. All the lateral runs and runs out of shotgun are just waste opportunities for him. He's a downhill runner who works best out of the I, Ace, or the Pistol. It's like they give him these run plays out of shotgun, which fail, and then they give up. Let him do what he does: get a head start, plow in to the line at 250 lbs, and push the defense. They try to get him going laterally and he just does not have the agility to make that work.
Also I think it's becoming clear that Rodgers is checking to a pass more often than we think. I'd love to know how many times this season he has checked out of the run in short yardage to call his own number and then fail. I think it would probably surprise us.
I still maintain this team misses Montgomery. Guy was targeted 18 times in his small sample of work and caught 15 of them. By far the best ratio of any of the young guys. Janis has been targeted 11 times for 2 receptions this year. Monty is very hard to jam at the line. He's a strong muthereffer.
Before GB goes and drafts a WR in round 1 I'd like to see Jordy, Cobb, Montgomery, and Adams together in 2016.
I'd much rather see TT finally get a real ILB in the draft. Then an OT, then a TE, then a another OL.
OL, MLB, OL, CB, TE, RB, DL
Which means it will be
CB, DE, DL, OL, WR, QB, DE.
ChilliJon posted:I still maintain this team misses Montgomery. Guy was targeted 18 times in his small sample of work and caught 15 of them. By far the best ratio of any of the young guys. Janis has been targeted 11 times for 2 receptions this year. Monty is very hard to jam at the line. He's a strong muthereffer.
I could not agree more with Montgomery. I know he's a rookie, but the dude was able to make plays. A part of the reason the offense has struggled so much is that he's been gone since the bye week.
On local radio it was asked name a player this season who's playing out of their head/above expectations. Honestly, I can't think of anyone.
Randall/Rollins are having bright moments in their rookie years but they are rookies and you can see mistakes here n there. Aside from that, I cannot name one player where I'm like "OMG, he's having a hell of a year".
That should tell us where the state of this team is.
MichiganPacker posted:I think the offensive meltdown comes down to 3 things. Any one happening alone would have damaged the offense. The three happening simultaneously have crippled it. However, the WR problems are the main issue.
No, they aren't the worst group of WR's in the NFL.
It really comes down to one thing--offensive scheme. The Packer's scheme under McCarthy has always been predicated on each WR winning an individual match up--and that has more or less worked for the past 6-7 years. Our #1 could beat their #1, if not our # 2 their #2, etc.
Occasionally there are games where it didn't work (Buffalo last season, KC when our undefeated streak was stopped, etc). But never was there a multi-game collapse. With Jordy out, our #2 can't beat their #1, our #3 can't beat their #2 etc.
There are teams with equally limited WR corps--New England, for example. But, they make up for it with schemes---bunches, motion, etc. Unfortunately for the Packers, by the time Nelson's injury happened, it was too late--already past mini camp and well into training camp-- to switch to a different scheme ala New England to get guys open. You just can't re-do an offense in the midst of a season--there isn't enough time to rep the timing needed.. So---that's why we get MM and other coaches saying guys have to win their matchups--because when the season began no alternative was available.
With this experience in mind, I would bet the Packers offense next year will look a lot different when it comes to route running combos.
I personally do not fault TT for this year at all. The guy with a few exceptions has put together a pretty solid and young roster. The problem to me has been health. I still say Rodgers is banged up and they team isn't reporting that, the OL has been playing with players so banged up it creates issues with continuity when players are in and out of the lineup all the time. Barrington gets hurt, Starks has missed some time, and I also think Lacy has been playing more hurt than we know about.
Now I am not saying that TT is completely clear of blame and I do put some of the issues on him. The first thing he needs to do is get depth on the OL (which is easier said than done), get a TE that is something of a threat (I think I could cover Richard Rodgers he is that slow), and I think they need bigger and faster WR's that can create separation. Again, easier said than done but I think they need to address that position in the draft.
As for Free agency, we talk about that a lot around here and I think we really need to get used to the idea that TT is NOT going to go out and buy a team in free agency.
Next year's WR corps is dependent on a lot of luck in regards to Nelson/Montgomery. Can Nelson ever come back and be his old self? Can Montgomery get healthy and continue to build on the impressive things he showed this year (very good leaping ability, acceleration, and power for a WR)?
Those guys could return the WR corps back to 2014 level, but Nelson in particular is no spring chicken, and we may never see the Nelson of last year again. He was voted one of the best overall players in the NFL, and there are times we can see how badly he is missed.
packerboi posted:On local radio it was asked name a player this season who's playing out of their head/above expectations. Honestly, I can't think of anyone.
Randall/Rollins are having bright moments in their rookie years but they are rookies and you can see mistakes here n there. Aside from that, I cannot name one player where I'm like "OMG, he's having a hell of a year".
That should tell us where the state of this team is.
Mike Daniels should have been selected to the Pro Bowl.
Jeff Janis the 'gunner' seems to have found his niche in the NFL.
Crosby has been really good.
Clay has been excellent at MLB, unfortunately that weakens the pass rush.
packerboi posted:On local radio it was asked name a player this season who's playing out of their head/above expectations. Honestly, I can't think of anyone.
Randall/Rollins are having bright moments in their rookie years but they are rookies and you can see mistakes here n there. Aside from that, I cannot name one player where I'm like "OMG, he's having a hell of a year".
That should tell us where the state of this team is.
I just had that conversation with a co-worker.
A whole lot of people playing worse than historical averages: 12, 27, 18, 44, OL, 52 from "career" averages.
Can't think of anyone else who has elevated. You've got gobs of players having "down" years and not one having an "above" year. Maybe Daniels, that's it.
Orlando Wolf posted:Be careful what you wish for.
Coaches that develop All-Pro quarterbacks, win divisional titles regularly and have a Super Bowl win under their credentials don't go on trees.
Nor do GM's that provide enough talent to be in the mix to win a Super Bowl (that is, by making the playoffs) 7 years in a row grow on trees.
Consider that every five years about 80% of the roster are players who weren't on the team five years before. The Packers, for example, started the season with only 13 active players on the roster who were on the Super Bowl team on Feb 26, 2011. (Rodgers, Sitton, Bulaga, Lang, James Jones, Starks, Kuhn ,Crosby, Masthay, Goode,, Shields, Matthews, Raji,). Picking at the end of every round, and with a draft/develop mantra, its a credit to the organization that we remain competitive.
See the past flavors of the year--49'ers, Falcons, Giants, Ravens, Steelers--to see how hard it is to make a consistent winning team. This year has been frustrating, especially given the expectations based on last year. It could be a lot worse.
The Heckler posted:....As for Free agency, we talk about that a lot around here and I think we really need to get used to the idea that TT is NOT going to go out and buy a team in free agency.
No offense Heckler, but this is the same line used over and over about TT and the taboos of free agency. He doesn't have to buy a team in free agency. It doesn't have to be an "all or nothing" equation. I don't think anyone expects him to "buy a team" nor do they need to go that route. But adding a piece or two each off season can really pay off without breaking the bank and getting into cap hell.
Last year, in a rare move, TT signed Julius Peppers to improve the pass rush. This move allowed Clay to move to ILB (at times) which made the defense and the team better. They didn't break the bank in order to get Peppers. He signed a two year deal for a modest amount of money. The signing certainly won't have long-term cap implications. But it was a really good move, and the Packers were in line to make the SB. Has Peppers paid off this year? Not so much. He looks old, slow, and not very impactful. But his contract is up after this year.
If TT doesn't use free agency to improve the team (NOT build a team), that's his decision. But it doesn't mean it's not a flaw. Just as many posters have questioned the abilities of the players, the coaches, the head coach....maybe the GM is not infallible in his approach either.
chickenboy posted:Well just to clarify, they were either an onside kick, a blown fake field goal or a hail mary wounded duck two-point conversion away.
or a key 3rd down drop late in the game by a TE.
PackLandVA posted:Last year, in a rare move, TT signed Julius Peppers to improve the pass rush. This move allowed Clay to move to ILB (at times) which made the defense and the team better.
They didn't break the bank in order to get Peppers. He signed a two year deal for a modest amount of money.
Has Peppers paid off this year? Not so much. He looks old, slow, and not very impactful. But his contract is up after this year.
They moved Clay out of desperation after the bye last year, not because the Peppers move allowed it.
Peppers contract wasn't "modest"---he is the third highest paid player on the team at $12 million. As for this year, Peppers leads the team in sacks (9.5) and two forced fumbles. Next closest in sacks is Clay with 5.5.
Slowmo
I'm not suggesting that Clay was moved when Peppers was signed. But having an edge rusher allowed Clay to be moved later in the season. No Peppers last year, and there's no way the Packers move Clay after the bye.
As far as Peppers stats, he played well in the first 6 games, like most of the team. And the Packers were 6-0. In eight of the next 9 games, he registered 1.5 sacks. To me, he's looked slower this season, like his age is catching up to him despite his numbers.
Regardless, both prove my point. He was a (street) FA that was signed to a relatively team friendly deal and he's had an impact. But his cap number won't hinder the team moving forward if his play is considered down.
NE is always the go-to for comparisons and they are 1 injured Gronk away from being in the same position GB is in. Granted, they would probably not look as confused on O as GB has this year but their record would be worse than 10-5. The line in the NFL can be so thin. PIT is another D&D team that seems to stay near the top but LOST the SB 5 years ago and may not make the playoffs this year. They look good for next year though...can't say that about our guys.
Pass rush has been up and down, more down, this year. Peppers ageing and Clay playing more snaps inside. Look at the clip of Peppers' pick 6 vs. MIN last year. I can't imagine him doing that this year. He finally hit the wall or stopped taking his "vitamins".
slowmo posted:PackLandVA posted:Last year, in a rare move, TT signed Julius Peppers to improve the pass rush. This move allowed Clay to move to ILB (at times) which made the defense and the team better.
They didn't break the bank in order to get Peppers. He signed a two year deal for a modest amount of money.
Has Peppers paid off this year? Not so much. He looks old, slow, and not very impactful. But his contract is up after this year.
They moved Clay out of desperation after the bye last year, not because the Peppers move allowed it.
Peppers contract wasn't "modest"---he is the third highest paid player on the team at $12 million. As for this year, Peppers leads the team in sacks (9.5) and two forced fumbles. Next closest in sacks is Clay with 5.5.
I think the Peppers move has worked as one would have hoped. Peppers is a soon-to-be 36 year old Hall of Fame player. 10 years ago he was what JJ Watt is now. At this stage, he's a guy who needs to play limited snaps and make an impact when he's in. As slomo said, he's got 9.5 sacks.
He was dominant in the Oakland game with 2.5 sacks. Two of those sacks ended drives on 3rd down in the fourth quarter of a 10 point game. The other effectively stalled a drive in the first half.
The Hail Mary win doesn't happen without the forced fumble by Peppers that got them back into the game.
That's one win that without him on the field likely doesn't happen, and a second that he might have been the most important player on the defense for that game.
Peppers has been the least of our problems. He's filled his role as well as could be expected. He'd look even better if he could play in some games when we had the lead in the 4th quarter and he could pin his ears back and rush the passer.
Slowmo - Peppers' contract IS modest in the fact that it is a 2-year deal with no signing bonus that gets dragged beyond his GB playing days.
Peppers has the second highest-cap hit among NFL among linebackers in 2015. Only behind Clay Matthews. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/ran.../cap-hit/linebacker/
Whatever you think of the Peppers signing, and I think it was a good one, I can not imagine calling his contract "modest."
Good discussion thus far. Honestly, I think this off season is going to be very telling. Thompson has a lot to think about here.
1. Is this a roster being exposed as an All World QB that covers up all the glaring issues across the board? I think there's something to this to be honest. I mean, sure it's easy to say that when your QB doesn't play well you struggle, but we have hit a point here where I'm honestly looking at the O and I don't see anyone that scares me if I'm a DC. Cobb is a ghost and overmatched as a 1. Adams is a nice 3 or 4. TEs are slow and are no threat to beat you down the middle. OL is patchwork. Lacy has regressed. The loss of Jordy made all exacerbated the issues here, but I think the rest of the roster is not nearly what we thought it was. I think TT has to look at this roster with a critical eye this off season.
2. Is this coaching staff maximizing the talent here? I know it's heresy and I'll likely get flamed here, but I think MM is a very good offensive playcaller. Other than that I can't say I see anything that screams above average. His assistants have been uninspired since the initial hiring of Capers, he sticks with underperforming guys forever, and GD pointed out, this year especially the bizarre roles are coming out. MM is playcaller, Bennett is OC, Clements is doing something, Van Pelt is doing something? Are all these guys on the same page? Are the players hearing the same things from each? Get an OC and let him run the offense.
packerboi has been bringing up the Bill Walsh quote a lot. I am in the space right now that it's gotten to the point where MM and his staff are being tuned out, and sound like Peanuts parents. Everything about this team screams "Stale". Offense/Defense, it's same stuff, different day. I think it's time for new thinking.
3. TT needs to look at himself here as well. Is he overvaluing the roster he has? Is he so locked into Draft/Develop that he is limiting opportunities to improve the roster? I don't think anyone wants us to turn into the off season FA champions here, but it is fair to say that teams are finding players in FA that are solid improvements and we have shied away from that. Just as MM says "we do what we do" and I gets us stale, I think TT does what he does and I think it gets him locked into a way of doing things.
Finally - we're 10-5. We'll make the playoffs again. I realize how lucky we have been as fans, so I'm not out with torches and pitchforks here. We could be Cleveland, I get it. But, I will not apologize for the opinion that when you have the best player in the game, the goal should be to win it all, and it seems clear we are significantly further from that goal. I don't want TT to leave or change drastically. I want AR here until he retires. I think MM is basically just a guy, and he hasn't instilled anything this year to disprove my belief.
The best player in the game doesn't throw interceptions in the endzone in a 10-0 game.
CAPackFan95 posted:
I will not apologize for the opinion that when you have the best player in the game, the goal should be to win it all, and it seems clear we are significantly further from that goal. I don't want TT to leave or change drastically. I want AR here until he retires. I think MM is basically just a guy, and he hasn't instilled anything this year to disprove my belief.
Agree with this last part, though I'm not 100% with you on the McCarthy comment. Injuries have significantly hampered the offense this season, and not just losing Nelson.
Thought Peppers had a two-year deal, not three. But the contract is modest (IMO) in that the signing bonus was minimal over three years. There's a big difference between "cap hit" and "dead money".
Peppers cap hit for each each pays him well. But dead money for insufficient play was relatively insignificant beyond the first year, IMO. The Packers have remained well under the salary cap, so his cap salary doesn't really matter. It doesn't appear to have prevented them from signing any other FAs (just TT's reluctance). If he's not with the team next year, and I suspect he won't be, $2.5 million in dead money doesn't wreck the team salary.
Where this whole thing could potentially get messy is if AR decides he doesn't want MM around anymore. It's not like MM has a lot of say in the matter if push comes to shove. I think MM is smart enough to know that.
If AR decides MM is part of the solution he has to be fully on board and behind his coach. If he decides he's on board as long as MM listens to his ideas about OC's and assistants then this has the potential to go Cleveland Cavaliers in a big damn hurry.
AR isn't going anywhere. So this has the potential to be a crazy off season.
I think some are overreacting as to how to judge the talent on this team. It's easy to dismiss this team as low on talent based on how they have dealt with the best teams on their schedule, but I don't think it's as simple as that. Positions on O or D are symbiotic with all the other positions and it's easy for a domino effect to happen when players are out of the game. We have a lot of really talented players, Pro Bowl players, but an offense is not necessarily the sum of its parts. Its all about how those parts function as one unit.
The receivers aren't able to challenge the coverage like they want because players are miscast due to injury, so the QB has to hold it longer, which forces the OL to block longer which leads to penalties, sacks, or turnovers or all of the above. The D is covering and is getting to the QB out of their base packages so there's no open gaps for the run game. The OL is beat up so they aren't as effective blocking longer or opening holes, so in turn the QB and RBs are struggling. Everything relies on everything to function properly. GB may only be missing 1 starter (Jordy), but that injury has miscast players in roles they can't be successful in AND players are beat up and worn out and are struggling to stay afloat. It's a talented O that is in the worst possible situation right now. Throw in inconsistency from the coaching staff and it's no surprise they are ineffective.
There has been a lot of denial about the Packers offense. The most glaring problem is that, without Jordy Nelson, there is not a single home-run, explosive player on offense.
At RB, Lacy is a plodder. Starks is faster but not a burner and not a pass catching threat. Crockett, who knows? Kuhn & Ripkowski, only the Packers value the FB position enough to keep 2 such slow players.
At TE, Quarless has never been fast and his now 2 knee injuries have slowed him down further. As for Rodgers, it is amazing how slow he is as just a 2nd year guy. He looks like Jason Witten in year 14.
Finally, regarding the WRs, Cardinals coach Bruce Arians came out and told it like it is about the Pack's receivers: "There's not much speed, and we matched up extremely well." https://twitter.com/michael_cohen13
Rodgers ain't going anywhere. He'll be a Packer for life. TT will not go through another situation like TOG.
And I think this is not a question of talent either. Although there are clearly some players below their expectation levels and I anticipate them not being on this team next season.
It appears there is a rift between Rodgers and MM. Could that cause all the uncharacteristic dropped passes, missed blocks, uninspired execution, fumbles, curfew violations, arrests, etc? Doubtful.
I think there is a deeper issue and it has to do with coaching. All season long MM has gone overboard about this team being "right where we want to be". I can never recall MM being so overly optimistic in the face of such dysfunctionalities that we have witnessed over the last two months. It's almost as if he is attempting to deflect deeper scrutiny. Only last night did he finally seem to acknowledge this team has problems.
Several weeks Bob McGinn had an interesting article about the internal state of the Packers and while he made no solid allegations, he inferred that some of the Packers coaches may be harboring some resentment about not being able to entertain other employment opportunities. Then there is the play-calling mess that has certainly offended some players and coaches.
I think it is very possible that MM is losing grip on this team. How else do you explain the so-many uncharacteristic errors and poor play that we have seen this year. In seasons past MM vowed to fix the troubles and he got them fixed. Not so this season. Same predictable schemes and same offenders not performing.
Ten years to stay at one NFL HC job is a long time. And I while I don't wish it true, I think we have to question all possibilities. The loss vs Seattle was a gut-twister and heart-breaker. Could it be after that "give-away win" the leaders on this team have lost their faith in MM? Despite the quirky errors in the last four minutes. That game was lost on coaching choices.
I am not saying MM should be fired either. But something is tragically wrong with this team and from what I see it stems from issues from above play on the field. I don't want to see a repeat of this season in 2016.
ChilliJon posted:Where this whole thing could potentially get messy is if AR decides he doesn't want MM around anymore. It's not like MM has a lot of say in the matter if push comes to shove. I think MM is smart enough to know that.
If AR decides MM is part of the solution he has to be fully on board and behind his coach. If he decides he's on board as long as MM listens to his ideas about OC's and assistants then this has the potential to go Cleveland Cavaliers in a big damn hurry.
AR isn't going anywhere. So this has the potential to be a crazy off season.
In what universe does Ted back his QB in a power play against his HC?
I could see Ted very reluctantly letting Mike go based on Mike's performance if it came to that. I can't see Ted firing Mike because Aaron is tired of Mike.
Grave Digger posted:I think some are overreacting
Could have stopped right there. And said ALL instead of SOME. 
Happy New Year all.
GBFanForLife posted:The best player in the game doesn't throw interceptions in the endzone in a 10-0 game.
Tom Brady had a bad interception yesterday. It happens.
Rodgers make a poor throw to Jones for the interception, but I think it may because he's pressing to try to make something happen. At that point, he should have thrown the ball out of the end zone and taken the 3 points. But then some fans would get on him for not giving his guys a chance to make a play. It's clear that the only guy he trusts to make a play in a contested situation is Jones.
Does anyone really think that that play was the difference between winning and losing yesterday? He tried to make a play on 3rd down in a game they knew they were going to have to score a lot of points and underthrew the ball by about 3 yards (while being chased by Calais Campbell who had just rag dolled Barclay and drawn an holding penalty).
Another way to think about this is whether replacing Aaron Rodgers with any other QB would fix this offense. Tom Brady would get killed behind this line with this scheme and he'd be throwing to Richard Rodgers instead of Gronkowski. Russell Wilson and Cam Newton would have a decent chance to do adequately if only because they'd take off running more. Roethlisberger might hold up to getting blasted more. Other than that, does anyone seriously think that Carson Palmer, Bridgewater, Kirk Cousins, Fitzpatrick, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Case Keenum, or Peyton Manning/Osweiler would be better? That's the entire list of QBs still alive for the post-season that this point?
On the other hand, replacing Adams with an All-Pro level WR or RichRod with an elite TE would likely make an enormous difference.
So MM is just a guy now after all the games he's won here, taking a team to the NFCC game in his 2nd year, taking a heavily injury decimated team to a SB win? This year was clearly not his best but I don't see how a guy with those accomplishments would suddenly forget how to coach.
He hasn't. He's still one of the best coaches in the league.
Grave Digger posted:He hasn't. He's still one of the best coaches in the league.
Yup, and he has a big coaching job to do. In a business in which 'what have you done for me lately' applies he needs to coach his ass off starting now. Whether it be X's and O's, judging personnel or massaging the tender emotions/egos of millionaires. Plenty of coaching to be done. In a sense he is coaching for his job, as it should be.
GBP1 posted:
The loss vs Seattle was a gut-twister and heart-breaker. Could it be after that "give-away win" the leaders on this team have lost their faith in MM? Despite the quirky errors in the last four minutes. That game was lost on coaching choices.
The team lost faith in MM---which is why they started 6-0. Not to dwell on the NFC championship---but taking a knee on an interception which could have been returned a long way, and trying to catch an onsides kick instead of "doing your job" had a lot to do with it.