Watson is essential to our Offense

I was hoping Bo Melton could make a difference today. They had Bo double covered on the ill-advised shot play Love took on 3rd & 1. Still don't understand that play 🤷🏻

Watson is a key receiver in this offense.

@Boris posted:

I was hoping Bo Melton could make a difference today. They had Bo double covered on the ill-advised shot play Love took on 3rd & 1. Still don't understand that play 🤷🏻

Watson is a key receiver in this offense.

He's not a Pro Bowler, but he's their only deep threat. And the combination of his speed and willingness to block is important.

If they lose that much when he's out, that tells me they need either another burner that can catch or they need another WR Love can count on getting open when they really need him.  I'm describing a legit WR1.

I'm a HUGE fan of the person but view him as MVS 2.0 as a player.   Slightly better than MVS as he is more of an athlete and asset in the run game. (Blocking and running)

The way he handled the Doubs situation was textbook.   That guy always has a place on my team as long as he doesn't price himself off of it.

Malik Heath is widely regarded as having the best hands on the team. For a team among league leaders in drops, I can’t figure out why he’s not on the field more.

Highest drop rates in the NFL this season (PFF):

Dontayvion Wicks (19%)
Allen Lazard (19%)
Jayden Reed (15.9%)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (15.8%)#GoPackGo

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 2, 2025

Disappointing year from both Reed and Wicks.

Reed started out hot, looking like he could emerge as the WR1.  Then he disappeared in big games and it looks like Ds have schemed to make that happen.  Wix got more offseason hype than anyone but never really got going.

Last year's fanfare about all the 1-2yr WRs busting out randomly in different games was at least partially due to the "unscouted player" effect.  We didn't see nearly the same type of big games from 5 different guys that we saw last year.  Melton was almost completely MIA.  Opposing teams noticed and adjusted.  Other than Watson and Doubs, who seem to be what they are, the rest of them will be entering the crucial yr 3 of their WR development next season.

It would also be interesting to see what effect Kraft and Musgrave (12 personnel) would have on the WRs and the O in general.

@michiganjoe posted:

Highest drop rates in the NFL this season (PFF):

Dontayvion Wicks (19%)
Allen Lazard (19%)
Jayden Reed (15.9%)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (15.8%)#GoPackGo

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 2, 2025

Disappointing year from both Reed and Wicks.

Funny/interesting all 4 are former Packers.

I was just going to say something about Gute's RAS requirements not including hands.

Reed is Randall Cobb, very good when you have guys on the outside who are threats, not a factor when you don't.

@FLPACKER posted:

Reed is Randall Cobb, very good when you have guys on the outside who are threats, not a factor when you don't.

That's a great comparison, except that Cobb didn't drop passes very often.

He's only in year 2, granted.  But later era Cobb was a go-to for 12 in clutch situations.  He knew how to get open on 3rd down though he also had 17 on the field with him.  Reed isn't there right now and has gone awol in big games.

Wicks was supposed to be the Davante-type release artist and route runner.  I wonder what else is going on with him not seeing the ball as much.  We've all seen the drops but if he's the only one getting separation you'd still think he'd see more targets.

@DH13 posted:

Wicks was supposed to be the Davante-type release artist and route runner.  I wonder what else is going on with him not seeing the ball as much.  We've all seen the drops but if he's the only one getting separation you'd still think he'd see more targets.

Maybe Love doesn’t trust him?

The passing game this year has been inconsistent and does not have an identity.  LaFleur seems to want to feature Jacobs so much that Love can't get in any sort of rhythm early in games.  They went looking for more explosives but the intermediate, especially middle of field, passing game just isn't there.  A lot of screens, short passes and bombs.  I do not understand how Kraft isn't a centerpiece of the passing game.  Brady's commentary about the passing game lacking detail was interesting.  I would like to better understand what he meant by that. 

Deep balls seem impossible to connect without Watson.  His absence may be having that big of an impact.  If it is then they need another guy that is capable of picking up the slack - a separator or another speedster.  Can not let the loss of one guy trash half your game plan when the game plan is supposed to be so "multiple" driven.

@50k Club posted:

The passing game this year has been inconsistent and does not have an identity…. Brady's commentary about the passing game lacking detail was interesting.  I would like to better understand what he meant by that.

Brady’s paid $30m/year to explain it to us!  He can’t- but he’s a pretty face for the women to look at!  Cannot stand him - just rambles with no coherent thought.

The top 10 qualifying QBs in drop percentage:

1. Anthony Richardson: 5.3%
2. Spencer Rattler: 4.9%
3. Joe Burrow: 4.8%
4. Aaron Rodgers: 4.7%
5. Daniel Jones: 4.7%
6. Mason Rudolph: 4.6%
7. Trevor Lawrence: 4.6%
8. Jameis Winston: 4.1%
9. Jordan Love: 4.1%
10. Brock Purdy: 4% pic.twitter.com/1YChTjLPZl

— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) January 2, 2025

I think dropped passes is an overrated stat...

@PA green & gold posted:

Brady’s paid $30m/year to explain it to us!  He can’t- but he’s a pretty face for the women to look at!  Cannot stand him - just rambles with no coherent thought.

My hunch is that he got that from one of the coaches that they have a sit down with leading up to the game. Either MLF, Steno, or Flores, but he didn't really know what they meant by it. Announcers get A LOT of "insights" from these meetings that they pass off as their own.

I said last year that Love can't hit a WR in stride on the long pass attempts, and I still believe this is true today.
Instead of Watson (as an example) being able to catch an arc in front of them, they always have to wait on the ball to arrive or have to work their way back towards Love because it is underthrown.
This creates opportunities for the DBs to contest/defend these passes, and contributes to the drop rate.

Of course, that doesn't explain a WR dropping (or 'muffing') a ball that hits them in the hands, or letting one go right through their hands...

@50k Club posted:

The passing game this year has been inconsistent and does not have an identity.  LaFleur seems to want to feature Jacobs so much that Love can't get in any sort of rhythm early in games.

I think MLF started featuring Jacobs so much partly because he wanted Love to stop throwing dumb balls…..and it seems to be working.  Also, Jacobs is a stud. Also, imo, they should do what they did at the beginning of the Seahawks game and give it to Jacobs every damn play until the defense proves they can stop him.

Rushing is smart football.

@PackLandVA posted:

Funny/interesting all 4 are former Packers.

Damn, I know Reed has dropped some balls but why did we have to cut him?

@Timmy! posted:

This creates opportunities for the DBs to contest/defend these passes, and contributes to the drop rate.

Nope. A contested ball is never a drop.

If a receiver is charged with an NFL drop the QB did his job well. The receiver failed, period.

Is that written down anywhere?  Some rule book item ?

The fact that the number of drops assigned to any receiver over the course of a season tends to be a single digit is about as deep as you need to go here.

If you or I graded drops we would not be nearly as kind.

From ESPN:

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

Basically, we're talking about blatant drops, not the ones where your old man leans over and says anything that grazed the receiver anywhere was a drop in his day.

"Only use this if the receiver is 100 percent at fault and no one else can be blamed for the incompletion," ESPN tells its game charters. "Pass interference that wasn't called/passes thrown just outside the receiver's reach, etc., are NOT drops."

Thanks, pretty clear and informative

This thread about drops has ground my gears over 2016 all over again.
Peak Rodgers. Peak Jordy. Peak Adams. Peak Cobb. Insane reception to target rate. Combined 31 TD’s. These 3 caught everything.
And somehow MM shit dragged the team to a 10-6 record and eventually routed by Atlanta in the title game.
Evidence #1 MM should never head coach a team again and should have been fired 5 minutes after that loss.

@Pikes Peak posted:

Is that written down anywhere?  Some rule book item ?

*

@PackerHawk posted:

Damn, I know Reed has dropped some balls but why did we have to cut him?

Good catch!

I guess I meant former/current Packers.

I'm surprised it slipped by all my fellow smart asses here.

@ChilliJon posted:

This thread about drops has ground my gears over 2016 all over again.
Peak Rodgers. Peak Jordy. Peak Adams. Peak Cobb. Insane reception to target rate. Combined 31 TD’s. These 3 caught everything.
And somehow MM shit dragged the team to a 10-6 record and eventually routed by Atlanta in the title game.
Evidence #1 MM should never head coach a team again and should have been fired 5 minutes after that loss.

Wasn’t the Seattle debacle before that?  He should not have been on the return flight that evening.

@ChilliJon posted:

This thread about drops has ground my gears over 2016 all over again.
Peak Rodgers. Peak Jordy. Peak Adams. Peak Cobb. Insane reception to target rate. Combined 31 TD’s. These 3 caught everything.
And somehow MM shit dragged the team to a 10-6 record and eventually routed by Atlanta in the title game.
Evidence #1 MM should never head coach a team again and should have been fired 5 minutes after that loss.

I may be using 'selective memory', but I remember that season as one where the defense, generally, and the DBs, especially, were riddled with injuries. They literally ran out of players at at least one position, and had street FAs trying to fill in.
It was a foregone conclusion that they would get wiped in the playoffs, and boy, did they....

Now that was a drop by Watson!!

Any word on what the extent of Watson's injury, from the Bears game, is?

Doubtful for training camp.

@mrtundra posted:

Any word on what the extent of Watson's injury, from the Bears game, is?

While it's probable Watson's injury is an ACL, the absolute glass half full on this would be that usually that is leaked by now from Tom Pellisero/Ian Rapport/Adam Schefter. And so far, nothing being reported.

There are also tests for an ACL tear that are done prior to an MRI that are fairly telling if that's the injury. Also that has not been reported yet.

So best possible news is it's an MCL, bruise or some other injury that would mean he would be good to go for TC in 2025.

But just like Jaire, Gute cannot bank on a healthy Watson moving forward. Whether it's this kind of injury, the hamstrings,  or ______, he can't stay healthy when he's counted on the most.

It's a good draft for WR's this year. Gotta find a burner that Love can rely on. And if by some miracle Watson stays healthy in '25, then it's just gravy.

Doesn't have to be a burner.  Could instead be anybody that the D needs to double on a regular basis.  Not sure that type will be available in the 20's of RD1-2.  Could be a FA but when is the last time a big-ish name FA WR was brought to GB?