We're not that far removed. Where did this offense go?
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Passing
2014
Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | TD% | Int | Lng | Y/A | Y/C | Y/G | Rate | Sk% |
341 | 520 | 65.6 | 4381 | 38 | 7.3 | 5 | 80 | 8.4 | 12.8 | 273.8 | 112.2 | 5.1 |
2016
Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | TD% | Int | Lng | Y/A | Y/C | Y/G | Rate | Sk% |
233 | 369 | 63.1 | 2410 | 22 | 6.0 | 7 | 58 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 267.8 | 93.9 | 5.6 |
Not a huge dropoff, TD% is lower and Yards/Attempt is lower. INTs are up, telling me he's forcing the ball more or someone else is fukking up. There have been a couple tipped passes that have been picked which aren'this fault.
Rushing
2014
Player | Att | Yds | TD | Lng | Y/A | Y/G | Fmb |
246 | 1139 | 9 | 44 | 4.6 | 71.2 | 3 | |
85 | 333 | 2 | 41 | 3.9 | 20.8 | 1 | |
43 | 269 | 2 | 19 | 6.3 | 16.8 | 12 |
2016
Player | Att | Yds | TD | Lng | Y/A | Y/G | Fmb |
71 | 360 | 0 | 31 | 5.1 | 72.0 | 0 | |
37 | 226 | 3 | 23 | 6.1 | 25.1 | 6 | |
31 | 75 | 0 | 11 | 2.4 | 15.0 | 1 | |
24 | 128 | 0 | 30 | 5.3 | 16.0 | 2 |
Not having Lacy is obviously the huge difference here. He was running well before the injury, got his fumbles down. Starks has been dreadful, we are lucky Monty has been in play because RB has otherwise been a disaster since Lacy went down. It's telling that Lacy hasn't played in 4 weeks and he's still the leading rusher. Also I didn't realize how much ARod fumbles!
Receiving
2014
Player | Pos | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Lng | R/G | Y/G | Ctch% | Fmb |
WR | 151 | 98 | 1519 | 15.5 | 13 | 80 | 6.1 | 94.9 | 64.9% | 0 | |
WR | 127 | 91 | 1287 | 14.1 | 12 | 70 | 5.7 | 80.4 | 71.7% | 4 | |
WR | 66 | 38 | 446 | 11.7 | 3 | 45 | 2.4 | 27.9 | 57.6% | 0 | |
RB | 55 | 42 | 427 | 10.2 | 4 | 67 | 2.6 | 26.7 | 76.4% | 3 | |
TE | 46 | 29 | 323 | 11.1 | 3 | 34 | 1.8 | 20.2 | 63.0% | 0 | |
TE | 30 | 20 | 225 | 11.3 | 2 | 43 | 1.3 | 14.1 | 66.7% | 0 | |
RB | 29 | 18 | 140 | 7.8 | 0 | 28 | 1.1 | 8.8 | 62.1% | 1 |
2016
Player | Pos | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Lng | R/G | Y/G | Ctch% | Fmb |
WR | 91 | 50 | 635 | 12.7 | 8 | 58 | 5.6 | 70.6 | 54.9% | 1 | |
WR | 74 | 50 | 621 | 12.4 | 6 | 46 | 5.6 | 69.0 | 67.6% | 2 | |
WR | 65 | 45 | 433 | 9.6 | 3 | 33 | 5.6 | 54.1 | 69.2% | 0 | |
WR | 30 | 25 | 213 | 8.5 | 0 | 18 | 3.1 | 26.6 | 83.3% | 2 | |
TE | 34 | 19 | 175 | 9.2 | 1 | 22 | 2.1 | 19.4 | 55.9% | 0 |
Right away we are seeing a YUGE dropoff in yards/catch and long plays. We had 4 players with longs of over 50 yards in 2014, this year only 1. Getting nothing from the TE position, which is obvious.
What's the difference overall between 2014 and 2016? Less explosive offense, more turnovers, more points allowed by the D.
Health and balance. McCarthy is real good when he has all his tools. Might be because of his we do what we do mentality/stubbornness, or it might be he can't be or isn't as innovative as he needs to be.
2 years ago they didn't have a real threat at TE, but they were fairly loaded at WR and Lacy was near the top of his game, so that balanced things.
Getting Cook back will help, but only if they can also get something from Starks and Michael.
The defense is really struggling, and a potent offense with some early leads would help.
I expect none of this to happen though.
I've been harping for the past two years on the fact that, after turnovers, average yards gained per pass attempt is the stat that correlates highest to the outcome of any football game. The problem is how do you improve in this stat category? MM & staff have not found a way to do it yet.
I think score is really the stat that correlates highest to the outcome of any football game.
But seriously I think 20/25 is the magic combination for success. You know you truly have a good D when you're allowing fewer than 20 ppg. Yards, ratings, TOP, none of it means anything if you're allowing more than 20 ppg. Truly successful offenses easily score more than 25 points, but if you're scoring fewer than 25 then you know something is amiss.
Right now GB is scoring 24.8 and allowing 26. Neither phase is working.
Had a pretty explosive downfield passing game two years ago that's absent now.
Now replaced with "A nationwide search has been issued for the Packers offense".
I washed my lucky jersey after the 2014 season. I am so sorry.
Grave Digger posted:I think score is really the stat that correlates highest to the outcome of any football game.
But seriously I think 20/25 is the magic combination for success. You know you truly have a good D when you're allowing fewer than 20 ppg. Yards, ratings, TOP, none of it means anything if you're allowing more than 20 ppg. Truly successful offenses easily score more than 25 points, but if you're scoring fewer than 25 then you know something is amiss.
Right now GB is scoring 24.8 and allowing 26. Neither phase is working.
I know, pts. are the only thing that really matter, however I find it pretty amazing that if a team wins those two stats; 1) Which team won the turn over battle 2) Which team had a higher "average yards per pass attempt", they win the game over 90% of the time. We can talk about all the other stuff but if; 1) Our defense was forcing more turnovers 2) Our offense was making more big plays in the passing game, we would not be in the situation we are in. I think last year we were 7-0 when this happened. This year we've only won both stats twice, Bears & Lions games.
Grave Digger posted:I think score is really the stat that correlates highest to the outcome of any football game.
Well, then we just need to score more
I think you're right, but they truly go hand in hand and you really don't need to look deeper than points per game. Turnovers/yard per attempt really go hand in hand with PPG. If you're taking the ball away a lot then you're probably not allowing many points and if you're not giving it away and you're moving the ball well then it's likely that you're scoring points. You can drill down on some deep stats, but PPG is a good surface level indicator of how things are going.
El-Ka-Bong posted:Grave Digger posted:I think score is really the stat that correlates highest to the outcome of any football game.
Well, then we just need to score more
2 years ago ? ..... X4 posters were kvetching, pissing and moaning about the Packers offense (even though it was the best in the league)
https://packers.timesfour.com/t...print-for-beating-gb
Lather rinse repeat.
Mensas ? No.
Menses ? Absolutely
Carry on...
El-Ka-Bong posted:Grave Digger posted:I think score is really the stat that correlates highest to the outcome of any football game.
Well, then we just need to score more
No, they need to keep the other team from scoring more.
The Houston Texans are 6-3 and in first place but have a -27 point differential.
They're the exception, not the rule. They're eeking out wins over mediocre teams and getting pummeled by good teams aside from a 7 point win vs. Kansas City.
Yeah, they're definitely an aberration, I just thought it was pretty funny how bizarre that was.
El-Ka-Bong posted:
The thing about gifs is you get to plagiarize someone's face.
Satori posted:2 years ago ? ..... X4 posters were kvetching, pissing and moaning about the Packers offense (even though it was the best in the league)
https://packers.timesfour.com/t...print-for-beating-gb
Lather rinse repeat.
Mensas ? No.
Menses ? Absolutely
Carry on...
Excuse me. It's manses.
McCarthy has been talking about running the football since the day he got here. He gets a guy like Lacy and doesn't use him when it makes the most sense. Now they are without Lacy and while Michael could be a great story, does anyone believe McCarthy will call more run plays? Especially in the 2nd half of games when they need to dictate the flow?
Hungry5 posted:McCarthy has been talking about running the football since the day he got here. He gets a guy like Lacy and doesn't use him when it makes the most sense. Now they are without Lacy and while Michael could be a great story, does anyone believe McCarthy will call more run plays? Especially in the 2nd half of games when they need to dictate the flow?
Lacy was drafted in 2013
In 2013, 2014 and 2015, the Packers were the number 12 team in the entire league in rushing attempts per game. You can look it up
https://www.teamrankings.com/n...game?date=2015-02-01
They were also in the top half of the league in rushing play percentage, meaning that despite the presence of a HOF QB changing plays at the LOS, the Packers were committed to running the ball, coming in as a top 10 team in 2014.
I was referring to situational RTFB.
From the blueprint thread you linked, which was specific to the BUF game, where they lost.
4th qtr, down 19 - 10
Lacy for 6; Lacy for 21 (off holding brings it back)
Then... Pass; Pass; Pass; Pass; Pass; AR scramble (pass play); Pass
FG
The song remains the same:
The Packers attempt more runs than the NFL average
The Packers running percentage is higher than the NFL average
I'm certain we can find any number of specific examples where we would have done things differently, but we don't have all the info needed to make that decision.
In the Beefalo game you cited, the Packers ran the ball 24 times for 158 yards and a TD, but at that point they were down 19-10 with less than 5 minutes remaining and needed to score twice, quickly.
We all like the Constitution, especially the parts we like
We all like the Supreme Court, especially when they agree with us
We all like statistics, especially when they prove our point
If only we had a time machine. Where's the Delorean?
Dean Lowry has a DeLorean
He calls it his DeLowrean
Satori posted:The song remains the same
Physical Graffiti was better.
GBFanForLife posted:If only we had a time machine. Where's the Delorean?
Will a hot tub do?
(No Mark Chmura jokes, please.)
I don't get the reference. Must be a Fedya thing.
They definitely are missing Lacy. Hoping they have success with Starks and Michael.
You win this round Satan! 
GBFanForLife posted:I don't get the reference. Must be a Fedya thing.
The Hot Tub Time Machine reference, or the Mark Chmura in a hot tub with teens at a post-prom party reference?
Or are you just offended that I posted?