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@Tschmack posted:

Not going to say I hate this move but I hate this move.  

I would have felt better dealing both 1s for Olave.  Trading both your 2s for a guy that played against no name competition seems like a major reach.  I don’t care how big and fast he is.  There’s probably not one team he ever played against that had an NFL caliber corner defending him. At least Olave played against real teams and defenses

Kurt Warner disagrees. There's tons of talent at small schools. The MAC has had many NFL stars. There could be a million reasons why he didn't go to a bigger school. Grades, late developing, etc.

Penning was drafted in the middle of the 1st out of Northern Iowa. What competition did he face? All I know is Watson showed a lot at the combines and who cares where he went to school. I saw projections of him going to the Packers in the 1st.

Big and fast plays just about anywhere.

@antiworst posted:

Kurt Warner disagrees. There's tons of talent at small schools. The MAC has had many NFL stars. There could be a million reasons why he didn't go to a bigger school. Grades, late developing, etc.

Penning was drafted in the middle of the 1st out of Northern Iowa. What competition did he face? All I know is Watson showed a lot at the combines and who cares where he went to school. I saw projections of him going to the Packers in the 1st.

Big and fast plays just about anywhere.

Randy Moss agrees.

@antiworst posted:

Kurt Warner disagrees. There's tons of talent at small schools.

Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Davante Adams.

Cooper Kupp, Antonio Brown, Adam Theilen, Tyreek Hill.

I forget which Power 5 programs these former Packer & non-Packer WRs attended.

There may be reasons to criticize the Watson pick, but I don't think the fact he played collegiately at NDSU is in the top 5.

@Tschmack posted:

Not going to say I hate this move but I hate this move.  

I would have felt better dealing both 1s for Olave.  Trading both your 2s for a guy that played against no name competition seems like a major reach.  I don’t care how big and fast he is.  There’s probably not one team he ever played against that had an NFL caliber corner defending him. At least Olave played against real teams and defenses.

By the way, MVS was a goddamn 5th round pick.  For the 1,000th time already.  GB gave up 1st round draft collateral for this guy.  Except was taken 34.  He better pan out.

When he got his chance to play vs. better competition at the Senior Bowl he was named the week's best WR

https://draftwire.usatoday.com...te-highlights-notes/

So is every other guy, though. Most guys with questionable hands don't get "better" (relative to peers) in the pros, which is a huge concern. Some guys with good hands struggle for a bit (J'Marr Chase last preseason). Watson improved from a 28% drop rate to 10% at NDSU. 10% is still abysmal.

Think of guys like not only like the Packers shotgun soiree, but Will Fuller, Troy Williamson, Qadry Ismael, Justin Hunter, Kelvin Benjamin were all athletic guys whose hands never got good. The two that come to mind that did were Julio Jones and Demaryious Thomas. Those odds aren't great.

Last edited by Herschel

Hilarious. One, the thing that separates the Senior Bowl Hall of Fame wide receivers from the Super Bowl Hall of Fame wide receivers is almost nobody is in both. At the end of the season, a thing called the play-offs, there is no correlation between WR height and receptions, yards, TDs, and Super Bowl rings.

Watson was an average college receiver, and that means the odds are very good he will be a below average playoff receiver. Because the DBs in the playoffs are elite, and he's likely not elite. They traded up to get likely mediocrity because they got a boner for a 6'4" body. Thinking with your dick seldom works.

@packerboi posted:

The vikings saw 2 more draft.picks in their column,. That's why they did it. Then, they traded #53 to move down.

So we get Jerry Rice and Sterling Sharpe references and voila!  Bring on Randy Moss!!  After all, he played for a small time program in Marshall just like Watson.

There’s just one small problem with that analysis - Moss actually signed with Notre Dame.  Not Brian Kelly ND but Lou Holtz national championship caliber ND.  Then after basically getting kicked out of ND he went to Florida State.  Arguably the second or third most dominant college program at the time.  You know the rest of the story in how he ended up at Marshall but Moss was one of the most sought after HS prospects in the country.

I also won’t mention that Moss ran a 4.2-40.   Which would make Watson look like Allan Lazard in a foot race.

Can he succeed?   Sure he can.  But there’s a reason he lasted as long as he did.  Despite the athletic skills and measurables he isn’t skilled at catching the ball.  How will that translate when good defenders are in your grill challenging the ball?  In the NFL, even back up corners are likely better than any DB he faced in college.

There was absolutely no reason for GB to give up another 2nd for him.  Unless MLF can get creative and use him like Deebo and as a returner and he actually makes an impact.  Time will tell.  

Last edited by Tschmack

He has big hands, so his drops aren't likely physical.  Could be that NDS ran so few passing plays that the mental shift from run blocking to receiving made it tough to get into a pass catching rhythm, leading to a few drops.  And with such a small sample size of catches, a few drops skews the entire drop rate.  He only caught 43 passes last year so dropping 1 pass every 3 games would lead to a 10% drop rate. 

But I am concerned with how raw he is as a WR.  Dude is big and fast but can he adjust to route running in the NFL?  His team only attempted 250 passes all year.  And that was over 15 games, so even if Watson was on the field for all 250 attempts, he only ran about 16 pass routes per game.  So I'm not that concerned with his drop rate in college, but I am concerned with how few routes he ran during games.  I think a better comp for him is actually Demaryius Thomas, in that Thomas was also in a run heavy system and only has 120 catches in his 3 years college career.  His last year, they only threw the ball 170 times in 14 games so like Watson, Thomas only ran about 12 pass routes per game.  It worked out for Thomas in the NFL but Thomas was even more physically gifted than Watson. 

It's going to take some work for Watson to adjust to the NFL.  I was hoping for a WR that was going to be able to step in and contribute right away and that may not happen with Watson.  Or, MLF may get Watson up to speed on 2-3 routes and feeds him the ball to be able to get some production ASAP.  Guess we'll see. 

@Herschel posted:

So is every other guy, though. Most guys with questionable hands don't get "better" (relative to peers) in the pros, which is a huge concern. Some guys with good hands struggle for a bit (J'Marr Chase last preseason). Watson improved from a 28% drop rate to 10% at NDSU. 10% is still abysmal.

Think of guys like not only like the Packers shotgun soiree, but Will Fuller, Troy Williamson, Qadry Ismael, Justin Hunter, Kelvin Benjamin were all athletic guys whose hands never got good. The two that come to mind that did were Julio Jones and Demaryious Thomas. Those odds aren't great.

In another link it was mentioned that his drops were attributed to focus drops. In other words, it was because he was focused on his RAC. So it’s not fumble fingers as much as a focus one. He doesn’t have tiny weak hands. He will be fine once he puts his mind to it. He is a home run WR who can run block.

I like Gute and overall I think he’s done a solid job as GM.  But if we are going to be critical of the Love pick, I think it’s fair to be critical of this move (Watson).

In the end, that’s the beauty of the draft.  Some guys will work out, but reality is most guys will not.  At this point it’s pure speculation.  But I also think we can temper the Sharpe and Moss and Jerry Rice commentary.  

If he ends up being a glorified Corderelle Patterson I’d be fine with that.  God knows they need help in the return game.

Last edited by Tschmack

In another link it was mentioned that his drops were attributed to focus drops. In other words, it was because he was focused on his RAC. So it’s not fumble fingers as much as a focus one. He doesn’t have tiny weak hands. He will be fine once he puts his mind to it. He is a home run WR who can run block.

It's also tough to think his focus will improve when playing in a much more complicated offense against much more complicated coverage by much bigger and faster defensive backs. He may work out, I sure hope he does, and the gamble would be less if he was projected to be the #2 or #3, but for a guy who they'd like to compete for the alpha spot that's a very big gamble.

@michiganjoe posted:

Really think the pick is about potential and upside with Watson. Packers made a similar choice with a player named Rashan Gary and hopefully this one works out as well.

I think the potential part is playing as a legit #1.  That seems to be where most of the work is needed, specifically routes.

But I don't think he's simply a potential pick.  He has plenty to offer to this style of offense right away.  I don't expect him to be some offensive monster but I could definitely see him being a gadget guy/decoy from the get go.

Last edited by Henry

The reality is GB probably needs 2-3 receivers.  Watkins and Cobb are stopgaps and I’m not sure Lazard is in their long term plans.  

I don’t care if Watson is a 1 or 2 or even a 3.  They need multiple guys.  That’s why I’m not a fan of trading two high picks for him.

Seems to me like the WR position is a bit overvalued in that unless you are a top tier talent like Adams or Hill a lot of teams would rather draft guys and pay them on rookie contracts.  

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