Round 2 No. 34 (From the Vikings) WR Christian Watson ND State

@Herschel posted:

It's also tough to think his focus will improve when playing in a much more complicated offense against much more complicated coverage by much bigger and faster defensive backs. He may work out, I sure hope he does, and the gamble would be less if he was projected to be the #2 or #3, but for a guy who they'd like to compete for the alpha spot that's a very big gamble.

Pretty sure MLF and #12 have no thoughts of a rookie WR being #1, no matter who the rookie is / was.  

Thats the fans wishful thinking.

I guess that's why I'm not overly concerned one way or another.  To me this is a make up for the Love debacle and neither are going to greatly impact the immediate goal of winning a Super Bowl while Rodgers is still here.

We're talking about a guy who is going to be performing with the next QB whoever that is.  If Watson can supply some gadget type play, I'm good.

I'm just giddy as fuck over the D picks.

@BrainDed posted:

Pretty sure MLF and #12 have no thoughts of a rookie WR being #1, no matter who the rookie is / was.  

Thats the fans wishful thinking.

AR said on McAfee the only instant #1 receiver he saw in this draft was Williams, who is likely to be on PUP to start the year anyway.  IE, there are no Jamar Chase's or Justin Jefferson's in this draft.

While it remains to be seen, I think Watson will be fine. MVS did not have stellar hands either and yet many wanted to resign him. If anything, we got a cheaper version of MVS who can stretch the field and act as a decoy at the start of the year and then grow into something better. Plus, the NDSU QB is not exactly Rodgers. If anything, I expect Watson to drop a few at the start as he adjusts to the speed and placement of Rodgers' throws vs whoever that guy was.

Adams was a 2 pick. GB didn’t give up a thing. He was just there. The crowd thinking GB should have given up round 1 capital to move up to get a possible Adams replacement and then bitching about giving up round 2 capital for Watson is  forcing the misconception Adams was a top 10 1st round selection.

@Fandame posted:

MVS did does not have stellar hands either

@Tschmackoby posted:

But I also think we can temper the Sharpe and Moss and Jerry Rice commentary.  

The commentary (mine at least) was a response to the bad hands / small school criticism.

This guy thinks Watson is a beast...

That.  Is.  Dope.

Guy is a freak talent.

@ChilliJon posted:

Guy is a freak talent.

I think some of the complaints are legitimate but I also think they are very correctable considering his freakiness.

I truly believe he can have impact right away as a gadget guy.  You want to open up downfield for other WRs?  Have him lurking around the backfield.  With his ability and willingness to block he can fit in nicely with Mayo's scheme right off the bat.

I'm not expecting him to be a huge factor in the passing game right away but I could see Rodgers literally telling the kid "go deep".

He’s legitimate 2nd round talent. He’s as good as Rodgers wants to ask of him. Throw it or hand it off. Everyone’s got a timer.

Love the pick.  When the Pack lines up in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) with either Jones/Dillon at RB, Big Dog at TE, and Lazard, Watkins, and Watson at WR - that is going to be a lot of DBs getting their asses bullied all over the field - talk about grinding the play clock.  Then slip Watson for a deep chuck - forgettaboutit.

Didn't big dog retire?

I don't think so...his contract for 2022 is only $1.2M.

EDIT: Cap hit is $4.5M, can save $800K by cutting him (or him retiring).  IMO, he is worth $800K to keep around.

It’s kind of hilarious watching Watson when he gets a free lane to run, just how much faster he was than his less than stellar competition.

It reminded me of watching Usain Bolt as a sprinter where his long strides were so strong and fast, he would make the other great sprinters of the world look ordinary.

I think he’s comparable to MVS in speed but looks like he’s maybe got a bit more smoothness to his game.  

I could see this guy being a fantastic player in a couple years if he can get stronger and learn to beat the better more physical CBs.  For this year, I think his primary job will be “Jet Sweep”, plus a 3rd/4th WR who can threaten deep if he’s not properly bumped/slowed in the 5 yard bump zone.  He’ll be thrown into the fire quickly if guys like Sammy Watkins or Randall Cobb are out a few games via injury like has happened to both in recent seasons.

Even if everyone stays healthy, he’ll need to be in there at times to provide a deep threat some other WRs on the team might not provide.

Numerous reports from Senior Bowl practices indicated that Watson was dominating the week of practice. This was verified by him being named outstanding WR of the week. Although a step up in competition, I wondered about the quality of CBs he was facing that week. I found the roster and looked up the 6 CBs he faced. Three of them were drafted in the 4th round, two in the 6th round, and one in the 7th.

part of the calculus here is the stupid run on wr's...that plays into this steep price some.  there will be incredible scrutiny on this kid from the media...not to mention fans, I like it, I am sure the pre-draft interviews would find out about their mental ability to deal and not go ryan leaf...

crazy as it sounds, are they are setting the team up to take the big plays out of ar's hands and make him a manager rather than the win it all guy...interesting approach - if that is the plan- with arguably the best in gb history...

I cannot wait for when the Packers play the Vikings, this next season. When Watson torches viking DBs, we will have Minnesota to thank for trading to a division rival, allowing us to get Watson, with what was their pick. BTW, Did you know that Gute tried moving to pick #32, in the first round, to get Watson? Minnesota had pick 32 but wouldn't trade to the Packers because they did not want the Packers to get the 5th year option, on their WR. Pretty petty of them, IMO.

It’s not a cheaper version of MVS, and I’m not talking economics.  MVS was a 5th rounder.  Watson is basically a late 1st rounder based on what they gave up to select him.  So I sure as fuck hope he’s better than MVS.  Ironically, everyone’s favorite whipping boy (MVS) had the biggest game against TB in the playoffs and I firmly believe his absence against SF was a factor.  To that extent, if Watson can make teams honor his downfield speed that’s a plus.  

I like what they did overall in the draft but of all the choices Watson is the one I’m most concerned about.  Hopefully MLF can figure out ways to use him and he proves me wrong.

The one thing he seems to have over MVS is explosiveness ... 8 inches higher vertical and 12 inch longer broad jump. Seems, on tape at least, to get to top speed quicker.

Packer fans need to temper the expectations of Watson early in his career. He has all the tools and seems to have a good head on his shoulders from interviews I’ve seen. I love the pick.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmDRs1LbrlU

@Tschmack posted:

It’s not a cheaper version of MVS, and I’m not talking economics.  MVS was a 5th rounder.  Watson is basically a late 1st rounder based on what they gave up to select him.  So I sure as fuck hope he’s better than MVS.  Ironically, everyone’s favorite whipping boy (MVS) had the biggest game against TB in the playoffs and I firmly believe his absence against SF was a factor.  To that extent, if Watson can make teams honor his downfield speed that’s a plus.  

I like what they did overall in the draft but of all the choices Watson is the one I’m most concerned about.  Hopefully MLF can figure out ways to use him and he proves me wrong.

If Rodgers was being accurate on McAfee's show, he said the Packers had 6 wide receivers with first round grades. They all went between picks 8 and 18. I liked the Packers two first rounders, but the way the draft fell, how the elite WR contracts skyrocketed, and how poorly the front office handled the WR position this off-season probably left Gutey no choice but to give up the two late second rounders and get Watson. The escalating WR contracts for veterans caught people off guard. I think teams have decided you can either have an elite QB making 40-50 million and try to get by with aging vet WRs or guys on rookie contracts, or you can have a mid-tier vet QB (D. Carr, Tanneyhill) or QB on a rookie deal and a superstar WR. Prior to those Adams, T. Hill, Hopkins, AJ Brown, etc. contracts I don't think those 6 guys go that high in the first round.

If Gutey stays put at 53 and 59, the Packers get either Alec Pierce or Skyy Moore. If Alec Pierce ends up a better NFL WR than Watson, they made a poor decision.

As iffy as WR might be, I'm more concerned about TE. They must see something in DeGuara that most of us don't.

Could have possibly had McBride at 53 but then would not have gotten Moore, Watson, or Pierce.

I mean he blocks too and well- I am excited to see how they use him and how they bring him along - kind of is a freak

MLF in his presser said that it was rare to see such an elite athlete that was such a willing blocker.

@Pakrz posted:

Packer fans need to temper the expectations of Watson early in his career. He has all the tools and seems to have a good head on his shoulders from interviews I’ve seen. I love the pick.

I love this pick too.  I certainly expect a bit of an adjustment period as he goes up against CBs who are much more experienced and talented than what he saw in college.  He still can help the Pack a lot as he learns, but I don’t necessarily expect him to be a guy that has a 1000 yard season right off the bat.

Just as an example, it wasn’t until Davante Adams got to his 5th year that he broke 1000 yards receiving for a season.  He did get close in his 3rd year though.

@FLPACKER posted:

Could have possibly had McBride at 53 but then would not have gotten Moore, Watson, or Pierce.

Could have had Pierce at 53, plus Drake Jackson, Nick Bonitto or DeAngelo Malone (and edge who can actually run), or Jelani Woods or Greg Dulcich (super athletic TE), Abraham Lucas or Nicholas Petit-Frere (a tackle who can legitimately compete right away, saving a pick for later for depth/special teams) or Bryan Cook or JT Woods (so they're not a Savage or Amos ding away from Henry fucking Black getting starter snaps).

Just so I'm sure, you didn't like the Packers draft, correct?

I woke up this morning and I still love the pick of Watson. Btw I don't know if it's been posted here or not but his jersey number is going to be #9. I think thats pretty cool also! 

@EC Pack posted:

Just so I'm sure, you didn't like the Packers draft, correct?

I hate the opportunity cost of and I don't like Watson.

Enagbare can't run so he's not a great depth piece as a pass rusher, but he's stout and likely will have a role.

Doubs would be fine if not for Watson being such a wild card.

Wyatt and Walker? Aces! Rhyan and Tom? Great. Rasheed? Definitely worth a shot with the way things played out. Carpenter, Ford and Toure? Special Teams needs help. Well done.

Not a shot Herschel, but you are basing your opinion on what?  Mock drafts?  Data compiled by journalists or "experts?"  Viewing a few YouTube clips?

There's a select few human beings that are paid to evaluate NFL talent (Scouts, GMs, coaches, etc.). At some point we should probably defer to them, no?

Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only.

@Pakrz posted:

Not a shot Herschel, but you are basing your opinion on what?  Mock drafts?  Data compiled by journalists or "experts?"  Viewing a few YouTube clips?

There's a select few human beings that are paid to evaluate NFL talent (Scouts, GMs, coaches, etc.). At some point we should probably defer to them, no?

Everything I can see/hear. It's a fun exercise in the crappy, dreary late winter. It's a challenge/game too see how my thoughts line up with theirs. It's also interesting to note their trends.

Don't get me wrong, it takes ridiculous athletes to play in the NFL, but taking guys who have issues catching the ball seems very counter-productive to me, and history shows not many guys overcome mediocre hands in the pros. GMs have ridiculous egos, which is required to be good, quite frankly, but it sure seems they also do some  Wile E. Coyote "see, I am a genius, you never would have thought of __________" stuff some times, Gutekunst included.

Who didn't see they've needed to fix their Special Teams for years yet they stayed the course and it cost them. Or that crappy ILBs were a liability in the playoffs. TT was guilty of that, as well. We have one good receiver? Let's not take one in an incredibly deep draft two years in a row and be left holding the bag when the one good one we have leaves.

His track record with receivers is not good, and yes, I think Watson is another Moore/MVS/ESB gamble, albeit maybe a little better one. Reports are that Watson skipped or showed up late to meetings, etc. but I have no access to their vetting info and interviews so I have to go on much more limited info and trust him/them on the background part.

To the physical, however, we can all see he's a ridiculous athlete with size and speed for the position, but it's also not hard to see he doesn't have very natural hands and he looks like me trying to catch a fly ball without my glasses when he goes deep some times. And let's face it, he's needed badly in an offense where the QB routinely makes insane throws to spots around the receiver who's otherwise covered. Jennings, Jordy, Adams, Jones were all different types of players but all had that hand-eye tracking ability and better hands coming in, and even a couple of them struggled at times, especially Jones and Adams in his banged up sophomore season.

@fightphoe93 posted:

I love this pick too.  I certainly expect a bit of an adjustment period as he goes up against CBs who are much more experienced and talented than what he saw in college.

Jaire, Douglas and Stokes will get him acclimated real quick.  It's one benefit of having an outstanding CB group.  Most weeks he won't be facing opponents as good as the players he practices with.

There is a lot more information available in this day and age.  The thing that baffles me (not really) is this reliance on stats and stats alone.  Is it any wonder about all the new bullshit being peddled across multiple sports media platforms?

Stats are fine when they actually cover the entirety of what is being assessed.  I like the older sites that have a sensible platform like Football Outsiders.  A lot of this other shit like ESPN QBR and whatever goofy crap PFF churns out is nothing but clickbait to me.  People just refuse to believe the frickin' eyeball/common sense test even though it's right in front of them.  Or observe the whole of the situation that in the moment may look bad but with more examination makes sense. 

Let's use Watson/Herschel's take vs. MVS/My take.  He sees legit reasons in Watson's play/competition/general history that causes concern and uses basic stats to note those issues.  I felt the same way about MVS.

Does that mean the incredible athleticism and measurables are being denied?  No, both guys would be stellar talents if but for one thing, the questions around catching the fucking ball.

I'm not going to make an judgement on Watson as a straight up WR because I think the questions that Herschel has can't really be answered until we see how he responds at the NFL level.  It's not unreasonable at all to see how he adjusts in the pros.  For me, his versatility was more than enough to think he was a solid pick and can be a contributor in some fashion right away.  If he didn't have that versatility I would be pissed too because he absolutely is a raw guy that needs developing as a WR and that does shit for the closing Super Bowl window.

As far as MVS, the things that hold him back just aren't very correctable.  The lack of ball awareness and the ability to control his speed and make plays on the ball is a tough fix.  He fast, he'll have some big plays but everything has to be perfect.

Yep, MVS was a 5th rounder and Watson is a high second rounder.  That's a draft capital issue.  The eyeball test just seems to be ignored in pretty large fashion to go full homer regardless of draft status.

We're all older now.  We love the Packers but I think we've all seen and experienced together some complete shit over the years so some bitching is pretty natural.  We aren't 20 year olds with blind rah rah mentality.  We love the Packers, we want the best for our team but we're all a bit seasoned as well and can more readily see bullshit now.  It's not like we're not going to show up and watch the game just like every other Sunday.  Yes, we have high expectations because the Packers are an elite football organization.

@Herschel posted:

Enagbare can't run so he's not a great depth piece as a pass rusher, but he's stout and likely will have a role.

Love the post Hank and honestly that’s one of the best perspectives on this whole goddamn thing.

It’s just a really weird time right now with the NFL.  It’s almost like the NFL is embracing some of MLB philosophy and not tanking insomuch as you weigh draft picks much more heavily than free agents or soon to be free agents.

We all know the QB position is the end all be all in pro football.  The Packers have an elite QB, but he costs a shit ton of money. So there’s a real premium on cheaper labor to make it all work.

I hope Watson turns out.  I really do.  But 4.38 speed at North Dakota Stare means nothing to me.  Nor do the measurables. He’s faced or played against no one.  

Perhaps he doesn’t go Trey Lance or Carson Wentz and he’s able to elevate and rise up and play well.  I’m just not as confident.  He hasn’t had to work hard for anything.  He’s playing against air at NDSU.  That means something to me.  The NFL is full of guys- backups or even talented role players that are hungry and big and strong and fast.  Guys that would love to knock his dick in the dirt.

To me, what will make or break this pick is how creative MLF is in getting him touches.