Bucks vs. Heat Game 4 - Giannis questionable

The Bucks have to win one more game before this series would get interesting. But, I'd like to see this in the next game. 

1. No 3s early in the shot clock from anyone other than Korver of Middleton. Move the ball and make the Heat move around on defense. That's when those drives from Hill or DDV open up. Force them to switch and rotate. 

2. Bledsoe should not shoot from 3 at all. He was 6 for 7 inside the arc and 0 for 6 from deep. He's stronger than Herro, Nunn, Dragic, and Robinson and his long wing span means he can take them inside and force help. Get to the paint or drive and kick. No more 3s. 

3. No more Connauhgton. -35 in 51 minutes for the series

4. If Giannis is back, unless it's a fast break, initiate the offense through Middleton or via a Bledsoe drive. 

From your keyboard to the teams ears,

Didn't see this coming.

That game 2 loss is looming pretty large right about now 

It should be 2-2 but 3-1 instead and will take a miracle to steal this on

As crazy and weird as this season has been  who knows?  It’s one and done from here on out

@H5 posted:

Didn't see this coming.

An honest observation from a guy who’s shtick will always be to stir the pot. 

For years Bayless dogged LeBron so mildly surprised he’s taking swipe at Giannis but I don’t have a problem with it.  In this case I agree with him.  

Maybe the pressure is off now and they can just play?  They looked a lot more loose and comfortable especially after 34 went out.  

If these guys play their A game they can hang with Miami even without Giannis.  

Play hard and smart and let the chips fall where they may

They lost focus, then tried to “try” their way out of it. It’s b probably too late, but this lesson is a valuable one for young Giannis. Like when you’re having trouble on the tee box, and you start tinkering with your swing on the 7th hole. By the time you get to the back nine, your swing is so fucked up you can’t hit anything straight. That’s Giannis at the line, and anywhere away from the rim right now. 

Giannis defaults to “plow into the paint” forcing bad shots or plays as soon as he loses confidence in his shot. That fragility is an issue. It’s an issue that everyone in that organization needs to understand. Somewhere over the pandemic the guy that put a crown on his head while playing Lebron in Milwaukee lost his edge- maybe it was that game in LA when the Lakers beat the Bucks. Maybe that was the turning point. He got it jammed right in his face and that might have shaken him. He has seemed fragile ever since.

@Music City posted:

They lost focus, then tried to “try” their way out of it. It’s b probably too late, but this lesson is a valuable one for young Giannis. Like when you’re having trouble on the tee box, and you start tinkering with your swing on the 7th hole. By the time you get to the back nine, your swing is so fucked up you can’t hit anything straight. That’s Giannis at the line, and anywhere away from the rim right now. 

Giannis defaults to “plow into the paint” forcing bad shots or plays as soon as he loses confidence in his shot. That fragility is an issue. It’s an issue that everyone in that organization needs to understand. Somewhere over the pandemic the guy that put a crown on his head while playing Lebron in Milwaukee lost his edge- maybe it was that game in LA when the Lakers beat the Bucks. Maybe that was the turning point. He got it jammed right in his face and that might have shaken him. He has seemed fragile ever since.

Good post. The golf analogy is a good one, because I think Giannis (and Bledsoe) are overthinking whenever they shoot. When Middleton shoots (whether off a catch and shoot or after an isolation), he's confident he's making the right decision. When Giannis or Bledsoe shoot, they are thinking "should I really be doing this?"

I think a lot of it is thinking too much instead of reacting and trusting all the work you've put in. In the playoffs, there was one possession where he shot a corner 3 off a catch and shoot situation where he just shot it. The shot was pure. Most of his other 3s happen when the defense sags off him by 6 feet and he dribbles 3-4 times. You can almost see a thought bubble above his head saying "I should shoot this because I'm open, so I have to make sure I have my feet perfect, keep my hand behind the ball, etc. It's your golf analogy. He is thinking so much he's tied up in knots and there is nothing smooth about it. When he doesn't think too much, he looks like a completely different shooter. 

At the start of Game 4, he got into what my high school English teacher called "Risky Business" mode. It referred to the quote from the early 80s Tom Cruise movie which was "sometimes you just gotta say, what the f*%$." The 11 minutes he played in Game 4 was the first time in a while that he looked like he was just playing basketball instead of having the weight of an entire franchise and city on his shoulders.  He was smooth and not worried about making mistakes. 

Bledsoe is the same way. When he thinks too much (lining up a 3 pointer after a bunch of dribbles), he tightens up and looks like Ian Baker-Finch when he got the yips in golf. When Bledsoe drives and reacts, he's a completely different player. 

Getting them in the right mindset is what coaches need to do. 

I think it's too late in this series, but if they do bring this team back next year, maybe they'll learn a lesson. They need to run some offensive sets that get Giannis in a position to take a shot he's comfortable with and Giannis needs to be confident in that shot. It seemed like he was doing that before COVID19 hit. it was that postup on the block and then turning into the fadeaway jumper from 10-12 feet on the baseline. That was unblockable and he seemed confident in it. In Game 3, Bud set up the first offensive possession to get Giannis that shot. He almost airballed it from 10 feet. 

@Music City posted:

An honest observation from a guy who’s shtick will always be to stir the pot. 

The thing that irritates me is that there are never any consequences for making idiotic predictions. You don't have to be a good analyst, just get clicks. Here's some classics from Bayless. These are all his tweets. 

https://twitter.com/i/events/8...583410880512?lang=en

2009-Sorry, don't love Harden or this pick. Sam Presti trying to prove he's young genius. Average shooter, not explosive athl., poor NCAAs.

2009-VYoung better than MVick bec. 6-5 and looks to pass 1st. Runs only when has to. Just makes plays. Wins. Funky motion works. Will win a SBowl

2011-I love Tom Brady but RIGHT NOW in last 2 minutes have to take Tebow. By far NFL's highest late QBR. Does it over and over. Teammates BELIEVE

2011-I'm sorry, but Von Miller is OVERRATED. I didn't love him at A&M - disappeared in too many big games. And HE'S Denver's real MVP? Huh?

2012-If Matt Flynn starts, might pick Seattle to steal NFC W. If it's RWilson, no way. Bright, mature young man. But he's a 5-10 5/8ths rookie.

2013-One day Robert Griffin III will be a better QB than Aaron Rodgers, again No. 1 on Jaws' list. RG3: No. 13!? Love you, Ron, but ...

2014- Derek Fisher will prove to be a much better NBA head coach than Steve Kerr.

2014 - Johnny Football will one day be bigger in Cleveland than his buddy LeBron ever was.

2014-There is no way Mike Evans is better than Johnny Manziel. In fact, to a degree, Evans was a PRODUCT of Manziel.

Jonathan Tjarks with a pretty scathing article on Budenholzer:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/...mpo-mike-budenholzer

Its one thing to MMQB, but there’s some pretty difficult realities in this analysis. Especially the switching part- completely illogical. 

Brutal

The more damning thing about Budenholzer is the playoff performance in close games.  if you look at the playoff games starting with Game 3 of the Raptors series last year (excluding the Magic series this year because that might have been the weakest playoff team of all time), the Bucks had lost 7 games in a row. With the exception of Game 4 of the Raptors series, the Bucks had a 4th quarter or overtime lead in the other 6 games and gone 0 for 6. They also blew double-digit 2nd half leads in 3 of the 6 games. 

Game 3 Raptors. Double OT. Bucks led 105-103 with 4 minutes left in double OT.

Game 5 Raptors. Bucks led by 12 at one point in the 3rd quarter and by 3 at the start of the 4th. 

Game 6 Raptors. Bucks led by 15 at one point in the 3rd quarter and by 3 to start the 4th. 

Game 1 Heat. Bucks led by 6 in the 3rd, and went ahead with 6 minutes left in the 4th. 

Game 2 Heat. Game tied with 4 seconds left. We all know what happened.

Game 3 Heat. Bucks lead by 14 at one point in the third. Still up double digits with under 10 minutes left. 

6 out of 7 playoff games against good teams and all have the same pattern. The offense falls apart in the 4th. I'd like to see some analysis from an expert on whether Bud tried anything different in those games. It just seemed like he gave the ball to Giannis, who held the ball at the top of the key trying to figure out what to do, and then drove as the shot clock ran down.

In Game 4 on Sunday, Bud just gave Middleton the ball, but maybe because Giannis was not on the floor Middleton had a little bit better spacing to make some moves (at least in OT). If you are playing Giannis and Bledsoe at the same time as the shot clock runs down, you can sag off both the of them, which makes it harder for Middleton to get a good shot in iso or for one the good outside shooters (Hill or Lopez) to get clean looks. 

That’s an interesting observation about 4Q performances but also player substitutions.   I’ve railed on Bledsoe for 3 years now why he shouldn’t be in there late in games because he seems to make impulsive decisions, can’t hit a jump shot,  and he’s really not a good FT shooter.   Well, you pair him up with Giannis at the same time (in those situations) and maybe we shouldn’t be surprised at the outcomes.  

In the regular season it’s not as big of a deal because chances are the Bucks are leading double digits anyway and the style of play and pace of the game is different.   Middleton and Hill are the guys you want in late in the game because they can get their shot and if fouled are both good FT shooters.  Same thing with Lopez. 

Which gets me back to Giannis.  I used to really blow off the FT issue but you couple that with his reluctance and inability to take and hit shots late in games it’s becoming a real problem.   Yes, he’s still an elite player (both ends of the court).  But he’s not infallible.  And at the end of these playoff games honestly I’m not sure you want him in there.  

Which leads me to the next point.  Maybe it’s time to consider dealing Giannis?   I know it seems counterintuitive, but if this is the best we’ve seen from the Bucks (with him) is it worth investing 250MM to guess if his jumpshot and FTs will improve?   His athleticism certainly won’t get better over time. 

One trade package I saw was Giannis to Miami for Herro, Bam, and Kendrick Nunn and Iguodala to make the dollars work.  Not sure if picks were involved, but you would get arguably one of the best 3 point shooters in game back (Herro) and a legit stud defender and rebounder in Bam.   Nunn is more of a project for sure, but has the ability to be a very good all around offensive player.  What stands out is his ability to catch and shoot, and he reminds me a bit of Bledsoe in terms of his ability to get to the basket off the dribble.  Iguodala is more filler, but he’s still a saavy vet that has a lot of playoff experience and can still play some solid D. 

You add another legitimate 3 point threat (Herro) to go along with Middleton and Lopez and Bam becomes the weak side defensive presence to replace Giannis and a young guard in Nunn you can develop who knows?   

@Tschmack posted:

That’s an interesting observation about 4Q performances but also player substitutions.   I’ve railed on Bledsoe for 3 years now why he shouldn’t be in there late in games because he seems to make impulsive decisions, can’t hit a jump shot,  and he’s really not a good FT shooter.   Well, you pair him up with Giannis at the same time (in those situations) and maybe we shouldn’t be surprised at the outcomes.  

In the regular season it’s not as big of a deal because chances are the Bucks are leading double digits anyway and the style of play and pace of the game is different.   Middleton and Hill are the guys you want in late in the game because they can get their shot and if fouled are both good FT shooters.  Same thing with Lopez. 

Which gets me back to Giannis.  I used to really blow off the FT issue but you couple that with his reluctance and inability to take and hit shots late in games it’s becoming a real problem.   Yes, he’s still an elite player (both ends of the court).  But he’s not infallible.  And at the end of these playoff games honestly I’m not sure you want him in there.  

Which leads me to the next point.  Maybe it’s time to consider dealing Giannis?   I know it seems counterintuitive, but if this is the best we’ve seen from the Bucks (with him) is it worth investing 250MM to guess if his jumpshot and FTs will improve?   His athleticism certainly won’t get better over time. 

One trade package I saw was Giannis to Miami for Herro, Bam, and Kendrick Nunn and Iguodala to make the dollars work.  Not sure if picks were involved, but you would get arguably one of the best 3 point shooters in game back (Herro) and a legit stud defender and rebounder in Bam.   Nunn is more of a project for sure, but has the ability to be a very good all around offensive player.  What stands out is his ability to catch and shoot, and he reminds me a bit of Bledsoe in terms of his ability to get to the basket off the dribble.  Iguodala is more filler, but he’s still a saavy vet that has a lot of playoff experience and can still play some solid D. 

You add another legitimate 3 point threat (Herro) to go along with Middleton and Lopez and Bam becomes the weak side defensive presence to replace Giannis and a young guard in Nunn you can develop who knows?   

By the way, you can actually bet on this if you want. 

The Miami trade with the pieces you mentioned has been rumored for a while.  The Raptors are in the discussion with a swap for Siakam and other pieces. The NBA media has been trying to drum up a Warriors trade for years (Wiggins, the #2 pick, and Draymond Green). The Warriors trade would be an awful one which is why they don't even show up here. . 

The best place for Giannis long term is still Milwaukee. They will build around him for the next 5-6 years and you'll always have a punchers chance in the playoffs in the East.  Sure, there will be pressure to win a title, but nothing compared to going somewhere else with another "superstar."  He'll find out what Kevin Durant did. It will be your fault if the new team doesn't win a title, but it will be the resident superstar that gets the credit if you win. Even if you (Durant) are the main reason you win. 

Someone floated a Zion Williamson for Giannis trade as well which is why they are on the betting list. 

https://pelicandebrief.com/202...pels-zion-giannis/2/

The Sixers are there because a Giannis for Ben Simmons (or Embiid) works almost straight up, and Simmons is signed for several more years.  Simmons would be intriguing in the Bucks offense. He'd probably look very similar to Giannis in terms of stats on offense. 

@Tschmack posted:

 

Which gets me back to Giannis.  I used to really blow off the FT issue but you couple that with his reluctance and inability to take and hit shots late in games it’s becoming a real problem.   Yes, he’s still an elite player (both ends of the court).  But he’s not infallible.  And at the end of these playoff games honestly I’m not sure you want him in there.  

Which leads me to the next point.  Maybe it’s time to consider dealing Giannis?   I know it seems counterintuitive, but if this is the best we’ve seen from the Bucks (with him) is it worth investing 250MM to guess if his jumpshot and FTs will improve?   His athleticism certainly won’t get better over time. 

 

I've said in other threads that right now Giannis is just a more athletic version of Draymond Green. Green (at least in his prime) was an All-NBA level defender, a guy the Warriors could initiate the offense through a lot of the time, and a very good rebounder.  But Green was the 4th or 5th option in 4th quarter half-court offense in crunch time. Giannis is better at almost everything than Green, but Green was an enforcer type as well. 

The other way to look at it is what would Giannis look like if a team didn't structure their entire offense around him? If you don't run everything through him is he still an MVP candidate/HOF level/top 20 player all-time, or is he an outstanding HOF-level complementary piece (James Worthy, Rodman with the ability to finish at the rim).  

Miami could be the best destination for AD... he’s a FA after this year. 

@Music City posted:

Miami could be the best destination for AD... he’s a FA after this year. 

The Greek to LA?