Capers Defense

No matter what happens in the playoffs, time to make a change.

Considering how much inexperience (and lack of blue chip players) regularly lines up on that side of the ball, what DC is going to produce a much better defense?  If you look at the top defenses in the league, you will find not only top players but a lack of starting rookies over the course of a season.  I don't know what to make of Capers at this point but he isn't exactly playing with a loaded deck.

*different than not playing with a full deck, as my dad used to refer to me as

Interesting perspective. I never thought about it, but you don't see many or any rookies playing significantly for the Steelers. I saw this quote: 

"Unlike LeBeau, Capers can't wait two or three years for draft picks to blossom because the Packers don't value veterans as much as they do youth" 

I don't think they should go out and splurge on overpriced or washed up vets, but having an experienced guy teach the younger guys could be very valuable. Some here say Raji is getting the shaft because he's not being used correctly, but isn't the same true with Capers? They brought him to GB for his defense, but they don't give him the tools to run his defense properly...they did in 2010 and it was great. I'm not complaining about the youth emphasis in GB, I think it's smart to not overspend on older free agents, but there has to be a mix of quality veterans and quality young guys. How is MD Jennings or Chris Banjo supposed to learn from example when the only example they have is Morgan Burnett? How is Datone Jones supposed to learn the ins and outs of 3-4 End when his examples are CJ Wilson, Ryan Pickett, and BJ Raji? 

Couple comments on Capers.

a - his 5 years in GB is his longest stint as a DC or HC in the NFL

b - using points allowed the idea that his D's are tough early in his tenure and then decline is not entirely accurate.

Capers was PIT DC from '92-'94. That D was 2nd in pts allowed in '92, 8th in '93, and 2nd in '94.

Capers was CAR HC from '95-'98. Those D's ranked 8th, 2nd, 13th, and 27th in pts allowed.

JAX DC from '99-2000... 1st and 16th in pts allowed

HOU HC from 2002-'05... 20th, 27th, 15th, & 32nd in pts allowed

MIA DC in '07... 30th in pts allowed

NEP DC in '08... 9th in pts allowed

GBP from '09 to now... 7th, 2nd, 19th, 11th, & 24th 

That would make the options

a) sign more guys Capers wants. 

b) Capers adjusts

3) Fire capers.

Since it appears "b" isn't an option, the team is limited to the other two.  Perhaps the next guy needs to be a coach capable of adjusting to the players he is given. 

Doesn't change the DOM CAPERS is the best coordinator in football as I always say all the time, but if he can't adjust based on the card he has, he might need to give his seat at the table to someone else. 

Don't recall many complaints about the youth and inexperience of Casey Hayward last season. Capers has to undoubtedly shoulder some of the blame for the poor performance, but injuries and some very poor picks/decisions from TT have also taken a significant toll. 

I thought the article really reveals a question that can't be ignored. Capers said when he came in and took the job that he doesn't necessarily push one system onto his players but looks at the abilities of the team and adjusts accordingly. He supposedly has "dumbed down" his system based on available talent. But he can only do so much of that before basically abandoning his entire defensive philosophy. To me the glaring issue is whether Capers defense is a good match with Thompson's personnel philosophy. Don't agree with putting it all on Capers. Then, as has been asked by others, who do you get?

Not entirely correct

DC in Miami 06  ....5th in points allowed

...so other than his stint at Pitt. his defenses have worsened after his 2nd season. 

This Sunday's game is about as good of a measuring stick that you can ask for.  Understand that Matthews won't suit up and there is going to be inexperience on the field.  However, if you have a coordinator on either side of the ball that can't make adjustments necessary to control one of the top teams in your conference, then what's the point of keeping him around?  The goal is to eventually take over the spot the Niners currently hold which is NFC Champions, right? 

Well, if it can't be done once in three tries within a calendar year, then probably time for something new. 

Heck, Carolina has a pretty good defense and are starting two rookies.  One of them undrafted.

The safety situation is atrocious.  If they took Harrison Smith instead of Perry this defense would look a heck of a lot better right now.  I don't think Capers is going anywhere 

 because TT realizes just how bad it is. 

Perry's injuries have severely limited him.  It's a tough call to figure out where he's at in his development. 

Capers had only 1 season as MIA DC. His 3rd year was an improvement in HOU. The 4th year saw an improvement in GB from the previous season. The article in the OP puts the players in question, not the scheme. The Packers may be lacking talent on D, but we know they are not lacking youth.

It's not just the safeties.  It is the entire part of the defense that defends the middle of the field beginning at just beyond the LoS.  Who defends that?  ILB and S.

Add to that inadequate pressure with the DL and it is MAJOR inadequacy in talent.

I tend to think the issue is a combination of Caper's scheme being especially vulnerable with the specific kind of lack of talent the Packers have.

I would be interested in the thoughts of posters who understand the x's and o's in this respect.  What is the impact of inadequate talent in the middle of the field (starting at just beyond the LoS) given Caper's defensive scheme?

So you bring in a DC because you like the scheme he runs which includes favoring veterans over rookies, but when it comes down to it you force rookies on him consistently. And that is Capers fault how? What the hell kind of adjustments do you make for rookies who only have a basic level of understanding of their position/responsibilities within the scheme? The argument seems to be "Just fukin adjust man, if you can't turn a defense of 27 players with an overall average of 3 years experience into a championship D then you need to be replaced with someone who can!"

He had the savvy veterans he needed in 2010 and his system ran smoothly, but over the next 3 years those veterans all were allowed to walk and replaced by rookies who struggle with the key elements of the scheme. Is he supposed to stand on the field and tell them where to go like Pop Warner football? Adjusting to Capers/LeBeau's system instead of forcing one on him has seemed to work out well for Pittsburgh's D for the last decade.

When healthy, Capers D since 2011 haven't performed well. I know some fans like to point to injuries as excuses, but when he's had a healthy DL (this includes when he had a DL so healthy guys like CJ Wilson and Worthy were healthy inactives) they still woefully underperformed and got gashed in the run for long periods of the season.

In the secondary, while I understand Jennings is certainly not ideal next to Burnett as a whole this safety group has been terrible. They are the only safeties in the NFL to accumulate ZERO interceptions this season. Every other team in the NFL had a safety grab at least 1 INT.

You still see miscommunications in the DB. You see terrible tackling at times. You see a general lethargy on his defenses too often. Virtually no one fears GB's defense and they haven't since 2010. It's a defense that leans on a very potent offense to bail them out of jams.

But to me, most disturbing is there is very little accountability from Capers OR his assistants...

Brad Jones/AJ Hawk can't tackle for sh*t? No problem. Job is secure.

BJ Raji decides to play part-time and half ass it time and again? Not an issue. In fact, we'll even throw money at you to reward it.

MD Jennings shows piss poor tackling and gets replaced by the end of 4 straight games? No worries kid. You'll start again.

Datone Jones is my 1st round pick and barely plays? Yep. Don't get it either but carry on.

Part of this is also TT. I am not giving him a free pass here either. They need and have needed for multiple seasons a serious upgrade at Safety and ILB.

But short of hitting the lottery in the draft and finding the next Nick Collins and Dez Bishop in 2014, change needs to happen and I believe thats new blood and new energy at DC.

Do I think it will happen? Highly doubt it. MM is too loyal. And he won't see past the trees to look at what's going on with the whole forest.

Wasn't Wilson starting as rookie in the Super Bowl and Zombo as an undrafted rookie? 

packerboi:

Part of this is also TT. I am not giving him a free pass here either. They need and have needed for multiple seasons a serious upgrade at Safety and ILB.

First 4 rounds, I hope Packers draft ILB and S unless one of the picks is OL.

Wilson started only 2 games that season and not the SB. Zombo started 8 games that season but was replaced by Walden who started through the playoffs.

This does appear to be a problem, big time.

1st point- top 3rd in the NFL would be fine with me.  Probably not many complaints if top half.  That he cannot get the job done with the players he has is the argument to keep him around?

2nd point- He is a coach, correct?  Shouldn't some coaching be taking place?  Evidence would be young players getting better, the team growing into his scheme, the defense improving.  I'm not getting a sense of that. 

I concede that injuries have come into play, and losing Clay Matthews is akin to losing Rodgers on offense.  But I'm not talking about just this year with Dom, we've seen significant breakdowns as a pattern for this defense. 

Two rookies starting in the SB on a D that had Collins, a younger Tramon, Jenkins, Woodson, Green, Matthews, Bishop is quite different than 2 rookies on the current crop.

It is all about the blue chip players for any defense.  Good players make any defense look good, but there are only so many ways to disguise poor or below-average players.  

In 2010, the Packers had a relatively healthy Matthews and Collins.  Woodson was starting his decline, but he still made big plays when needed.  Tramon Williams stepped up in a big way during the playoffs, as did Shields and Raji.  Pickett was still in top form.  Desmond Bishop took over at MLB and had a positive impact.

Contrast that with the current squad.  Collins, Woodson, and Bishop are long gone.  Age has caught up to Pickett.  Injuries have dampened Matthews and Tramon Williams.  Raji has declined.  The only player who is playing better right now is Shields.  Replacement players have either been too injured (Perry, Worthy, Hayward, Jolly) or have yet to step up (Datone Jones, Morgan Burnett, Davon House).

It's also fair to question whether it's the best move to draft with the intention of making that position shift. Perhaps it would have been wiser to just draft a LB right out of the gate. The bottom line is that TT is in a bit of a slump with drafting defensive players and the results are pretty predictable.

Not being successful with mediocre players is not a reason to keep him, but it's not a reason to fire him either. 

I'm unclear on what you think coaching is intended to do? They prepare the players for the game, but the players have to go out and execute. Short of standing on the field like Pop Warner and guiding them where to go, there's really nothing that the coaches can do when the play starts. It's not the X's and O's that give veterans the advantage, it's the experience and the instincts that develop over multiple seasons. That's not something that just starts to happen to you over 8 games and then BOOP you're experienced. Every rookie has only played 13 teams in the NFL and then next season they will play 8 new teams and they will only play 5 teams that they could apply this seasons experience to. There's a big learning curve for rookies that probably doesn't really click until year 4 or 5 (which is why players hit their prime when they're 27-29). 

So no when literally half your defense (throughout the whole season) is comprised of players with 3 years of experience or less I don't see how any coach could properly execute any scheme. That's too much youth for the opposing team to exploit. 

Coaching or personnel?

It seems to me the defense would look a helluva lot better with MLB's and S's that can play football...  Is Capers a genius again with the right personnel?

Perhaps our beloved TT has dropped the ball at a few positions?  

The popular meme is "adjust the D to fit the players' strengths".  With so many inexperienced players starting or logging significant snaps, how do you know what these kids' strengths are yet?  on top of their on the job learning curve. 

I think the point an earlier post made about the conflict between TT's D&D philosophy (which has included much more draft than develop recently) and Capers' 3-4 necessity of experience is quite sharp.  That 2010 team had a heavy dose of experience on it and more FA signees than it currently has. 

2010: Pickett, Woodson, Green, Peprah

2013: Pickett

I think we'll see TT wade a little deeper into FA this offseason.

I can't give him the pass you are giving him.  His job is to get the millionaires to do better week in week out.  If you are telling me what Dom is doing is simply the best we can expect (again, not just talking about this year, Dom has bombed before) then you have a lower bar than I do.  It sounds like we need a coordinator better prepared to work with younger players.

And find someone better than AJ Hawk.  Amiright!

CMIII

Hawk

Raji

D. Jones

Perry

5 first round picks in the front seven.

5 out of 7.

How many teams have that?

Can't stop the run.

Can't rush the passer.

Yeah.  that hurts.

The middle of our defense sucks ass, especially with the loss of Jolly.

No Jolly, ILB's blow & 1 safety sucks making the other safety very average.

49'ers exploited that in week 1 without Burnett in the game. Even with Burnett I expect to see more of the same.

Green Bay can win but they have to play great on offense & get a couple turnovers on defense. Making Kaerernick uncomfortable should be job #1 for our defense. 49'ers are well coached & have excellent players. The Packer defense needs to play/coach the game of the season to win & that obviously includes Dom.

Just because a player is picked in the first round doesn't mean he is good enough to justify it.

Here is Cliff Cristl making the opposite argument. From 2012:

More than 25 years ago, George Young, one of pro football’s true sages and architect of the New York Giants teams that won Super Bowls under Bill Parcells, gave this brief discourse on the key to building a pro football team.

 

"We're a 20-year-old business and not a 30-year-old business. Twenty-year-olds make better soldiers than 30-year-olds. It's the same thing that the Marine Corps learned a long time ago. The best soldier is between 18 and 26 -- except for quarterback where maturity is important. This is a physical game and a Spartan-like game, and it also has to do with economics. People who are hungrier make better soldiers than people who aren't."

 

This year, on defense at least, the Packers have learned their lesson and are reaping the benefits of youth. Once again Sunday against Detroit, their young defenders allowed them to pull out a tough-fought victory despite another sluggish performance by the offense.

 

Granted, Calvin Johnson caught five passes for a 28.6-yard average and would have done more damage if not for Matthew Stafford’s mystifying tendency this season to miss the strike zone. And, sure, it’s more comforting for coaches to play rookies after being handed a boat-full of high draft picks.

 

But, then again, the Packers challenged Johnson enough that he wasn’t able to win the game by himself, and not all of those youngsters on defense started their NFL careers on second base. Dezman Moses and M.D. Jennings made two of the biggest plays of the game and entered the league as undrafted free agents.

 

Great players are rare. Good young players are there to be found if teams are willing to leave their comfort zones. Young players, while they might make more mental mistakes, can rejuvenate an entire unit and allow it to improve over the course of a season

 

Cristl goes on to give the defense props after a key Lions victory in 2012 and makes the argument that indeed younger players who haven't been to the playoffs or experienced success that vet's have can be hungrier, want it more, and in turn make more plays. 

Capers has had at his disposal since 2011:

CMIII- 1st round

Nick Perry- 1st round

Jerel Worthy-2nd round

Casey Hayward-2nd round

AJ Hawk -1st round

BJ Raji- 1st round

Datone Jones-1st round

Mike Neal -2nd round

That's a lot of high picks. A lot of high talent to work with.

Results just haven't been there.

TT is not a suuuuuuuuuuuuuuper genius????????  

Umpossible.

So apparently Capers needs veterans in order to run his "complex" system.

Here's an obvious question: If that's the requirement to run his system, why on earth is he the coordinator on the one team who's entire GM philosophy is to build via the draft and not veteran free agents? If what Capers says is true, then the Packers may be the worst team in the league to run his system (as long as TT is GM). 

To me, this sounds more like an excuse. I've seen rookies play at a high level in his defense (Hayward), and plenty of other successful defenses do the same (Aldon Smith and Eric Reid in SF standout). I'm confident MM's offensive system is pretty complicated as well. That hasn't kept young guys like Bakhtari or Barclay or Lacy or Boykin contributing immediately.

Also, can we stop the myth that Capers had these great defenses his first few years in GB? I seem to recall Ben Roethlisberger throwing for 500 yards against us. And Kurt Warner absolutely shredding us in that wildcard game. With the exception of 2010, the theme has been the same with Capers defenses -- they can dominate the Brandon Weeden and Joe Webb's of the world, but an elite QB or coordiantor will shred them.

If the point of the story is right Capers is not a bad coach he is the wrong coach for the Packers. The Packers have a draft and develop concept of how to develop a team. The Packers need a coach that can adjust his defense to meet the abilities of the player they have.

hay Rockin' Robin made my point before me, Good mind guy.

Did we draft the right people?

This lists Capers as DC in Miami in 2006:

http://www.pro-football-refere.../coaches/CapeDo0.htm 

but another site lists him as "special assistant" and does not list anyone on the staff as the DC

I think Dom is doing the best we should expect with what we have. I don't think I have a lower bar, I think many fans overvalue the players on their team.

It's an oversimplification to say that because we have 5 first round picks we should have a successful D. NFL defenses are given maybe 1000 snaps in a season on average, there aren't many players that play all 1000 and it's very rare to see a player in the front 7 play all 1000. There are a lot of factors in why that happens, could be scheme or personnel alignments or injuries or it could be the wear and tear of those positions is too much to play 60 snaps a game. So to me the question isn't Why can't we have success with 5 first round picks? the question is Who is coming in when those first rounders have to take a breather or get hurt? because that is who is running the D for half of the season. Clay Matthews only played about 570 snaps this year and Nick Perry only played about 370, mostly due to injury, but who played those other 400 snaps for Clay and those 600 snaps for Perry? Mediocre Mike Neal, mediocre rookie Andy Mulumba, and mediocre rookie Nate Palmer. Ray Horton will have his work cut out for him.

CMIII has had an injury-filled year, with hamstrings and a twice-broken hand.  Not Capers fault.

Hawk has never been a playmaker, even in the old scheme.  He is having his best season, but he has still had sub-par games. 

Raji did well his first couple of years, but has regressed.  Should Capers just bench him?  Who would take his place?

D. Jones was injured most of preseason and has made a minimal impact.  The number of snaps he is playing has decreased over the past month.  Why is that?  Is Capers removing an ineffective player from the field?

Perry has battled injuries his entire time in Green Bay.  When healthy, he has shown flashes of playmaking abilities.  The one thing Capers is at fault for is refusing to play Perry on the right side where he is most comfortable.

Capers also had Justin Harrell.  Is he at fault for him?

Capers certainly has his flaws, but he has shown he can field a competent team when he has competent players.