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1. 2015 - Signed Greg Monroe as a free agent
2. 2017 - Trade Monroe and a first round pick for Eric Bledsoe

3. 2020 - Trade Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, and 6 first round picks or pick swaps for Jrue Holiday and Sam Merrill

4. 2021 - Win a title

5. 2021 - Trade Sam Merrill for Grayson Allen

6. 2023 - Trade Holiday, Allen, and 3 first round picks or pick swaps for Lillard

There were some other picks mixed in with getting George Hill in a large trade that dumped Delladova and Henson, but in the end......

The Bucks basically gave up 10 first round picks or pick swaps for 3 years of Jrue Holiday and an NBA title and whatever else they get from Lillard. It's already worth it, and if Giannis now stays here the rest of his career it's a grand slam whether they win another title or not.

Last edited by MichiganPacker

The Bucks basically gave up 10 first round picks or pick swaps for 3 years of Jrue Holiday and an NBA title and whatever else they get from Lillard. It's already worth it, and if Giannis now stays here the rest of his career it's a grand slam whether they win another title or not.

That paragraph says it all.....right there

Huge grand slam.

Now, figure out how to get Jrue back and smoke the association in 2023-24 😁

@Tschmack posted:

It’s utterly ridiculous to suggest that Holiday will have the same impact as Dame.  As much as I like Holiday, his play has faded and Dame is arguably the best and most dangerous shooter/scorer not named Steph Curry.  

Holiday obviously got completely dominated by Jimmy Butler in the playoffs last year. I love Jrue, but Butler stole his manhood. I mean, he was telling Jrue he owned him down 6 with 2 minutes left in games and then backed it up. The year before, Jayson Tatum went off in some games and Jrue couldn't make a difference there. If you are playing Steph Curry, Chris Paul, James Harden, Devin Booker, or (ironically) Damian Lillard in a playoff series, there might be no better defensive guard in history to defend them than Jrue. But he was dominated by Butler and Tatum the last two years in the playoffs.

Lillard has zero chance of holding up against the Butler/Tatum/Doncic types of guys in the playoffs, but Holiday couldn't slow them down enough either and, in his career as a Buck, Jrue shot 39.6% from the field and 30.4% from three and 69.2% from the line in the playoffs. I think it's safe to say that Lillard will shoot better than that.

The other aspect of this that I have heard almost nothing about is what this means for Middleton. Many on this board complain about Middleton, but he is one of the best clutch shooters in recent NBA playoff history. That's not hyperbole, it's a fact. During the 2021 title run he had games of 40 (in the Finals), 38, 38, 35, 32, and 32. When no one else could make a shot against Miami in this year's playoffs, he was going for two games of 33 and shooting over 40% from three in the series. It seems every shot Middleton has taken during these playoff runs has been a contested, difficult shot in the halfcourt after having to bump and grind to get space to shoot. When your #1 option can't shoot outside of 5 feet, the #3 option is shooting under 30% from three (Bledsoe or Holiday), and the other wing are withering under the playoff pressure and can't hit shots (Grayson Allen in 2022, Miritic in 2020), Middleton was out there isolating against elite defenders, taking 2 or 3 dribbles and bumping chests with the defender to get a sliver of space, and then elevating with tight contests to take these shots. He's now going to get more wide open opportunities than he's ever seen in his career and he's not going to have to use up enormous amounts of energy to get off shots unlike the Bud game plan for when Giannis was controlled. That plan was to get the ball to Middleton and hope he bailed you out of having no real offensive set.

Last edited by MichiganPacker

Defensively, I’m not sure how you defend the Bucks in a half court set of Middleton, Giannis and Dame are on the floor at the same time.

In years past, it was usually Giannis as primary ball handler and that takes him out of favorable matchups as you can sag and force him to shoot.  Now?  Giannis can play closer to the rim and and someone is going to be open.  You can’t double any of those guys if Dame is initiating the offense given his range you can’t leave him alone at top of the key.

Dame is also awesome at pick and roll and he and Giannis could be devastating in that regard.

The last piece and MP2 nailed it is Middleton will also become a lot more effective on both sides of the ball because of all the attention that will go toward Dame and Giannis.   In theory, he should get a lot more and easier looks because Dame stretches your defense much like Steph Curry.  And he’s likely going to draw your best wing defender which means Middleton should have opportunities.  

Last edited by Tschmack
@Tschmack posted:

Defensively, I’m not sure how you defend the Bucks in a half court set of Middleton, Giannis and Dame are on the floor at the same time.



Just stay healthy FFS! 😎

Reporting now coming out that the Bucks did not consult Giannis before the trade.

https://basketball.realgm.com/...Damian-Lillard-Trade

I call bullshit. Giannis at a bare minimum knew this was at least a possibility.

Absolutely 0% chance Giannis found out about the trade from Adrian Woj of ESPN

This part here.....

"Milwaukee also didn't approach Antetokounmpo on whether he would commit long-term if they traded for Lillard."

That part I believe.

Last edited by Boris
@Boris posted:

Just stay healthy FFS! 😎

I call bullshit. Giannis at a bare minimum knew this was at least a possibility.

Absolutely 0% chance Giannis found out about the trade from Adrian Woj of ESPN

This part here.....

"Milwaukee also didn't approach Antetokounmpo on whether he would commit long-term if they traded for Lillard."

That part I believe.

I agree that if nothing else, Giannis going off and giving interviews about how will only stay if they can remain competitive and that's not a Buck for life pushed them to do this. If Giannis had come out and said, I love Jrue and Khris and I want to win with them going forward (riding or dying with them) and said he was committed to Milwaukee no matter what, Jrue is still here.

Holiday had openly contemplated early retirement recently and because of the way the cap rules work, if he did retire in 1-2 years, the Bucks would have been completely screwed because they have no way to replace that salary in their payroll. They were almost forced to move him for some asset that would have value in 2-3 years. At the very least something you can use to keep some extra salary cap space on the books. It doesn't get much better than Lillard.

The other thing about Holiday is that he's been terrible on offense in the post-season the last 3 years (outside of a 3 minute period from 5 to 2 minutes left in  Game 7 in regulation against the Nets where he went 3 for 4 from the field, 2 for 3 from three, and 1 for 2 from the line). He was 2 for 19 the rest of that game. He ended up 5 for 23 in an elimination game. He was awful.

Holiday's offensive production is not going to improve now that he's 33. He's slowly morphing into a PJ Tucker type. You don't really want him handling the ball in close games (he's had some bad turnovers) and you don't want to run offense through him. He has enormous value because of his defense, but you can't afford to pay the PJ Tucker types max contracts.

ESPN reporting Holiday being traded to the Celtics.  That’s a good move for Boston.

Once again Miami comes up short. Sorry Jimmy Butler.

The Bucks and Celtics are now clearly the two best teams in the East.  

Holy crap - Boston gave up a 2024 1st rounder acquired from Golden State, an unprotected 2029 1st rounder, Brogdon, and Robert Williams III for Holiday.  That’s a lot for a possible 1 year rental.

Portland basically got 3 1st rounders and two solid big men in Ayton and RWIII for Dame.  Have to believe Brogdon is a throw in but even as a backup that’s not bad.  

Hypothetically, what could the Bucks get for Giannis in his prime?   I’d say at least 5 #1s and several established players.  

Last edited by Tschmack
@Tschmack posted:

ESPN reporting Holiday being traded to the Celtics.  That’s a good move for Boston.

Once again Miami comes up short. Sorry Jimmy Butler.

The Bucks and Celtics are now clearly the two best teams in the East.  

Holy crap - Boston gave up a 2024 1st rounder acquired from Golden State, an unprotected 2029 1st rounder, Brogdon, and Robert Williams III for Holiday.  That’s a lot for a possible 1 year rental.

Portland basically got 3 1st rounders and two solid big men in Ayton and RWIII for Dame.  Have to believe Brogdon is a throw in but even as a backup that’s not bad.  

Hypothetically, what could the Bucks get for Giannis in his prime?   I’d say at least 5 #1s and several established players.  

Absolutely hate to see Jrue go there for personal rooting reasons. I wanted him to end up anywhere except Boston or Miami.

Several things.

1. The Celtics traded Robert Williams, Grant Williams, Marcus Smart, and Malcolm Brogdon for Jrue Holiday and Porzingis. I'm not sure that makes them better. On paper, it makes them a lot worse on the defensive end, even given Jrue's elite defense. Al Horford is 37 years old. Who exactly is going to guard Embiid or Giannis? Porzingis can't guard anyone outside of the lane. Robert Williams was a DPOY candidate and Smart won it one year. Grant Williams was a very good 3 and D guy. It would make a lot of sense for them to move Jaylen Brown for pieces that fit better. Tatum, Brown, Holiday, and Derek White are a lot of redundancy.

2. Miami let Strus and Vincent walk for nothing. Pat Riley finally got outmaneuvered (at least so far). They are stuck with three contracts at around 75 million a year no one wants in any trade (Herro, Lowry (38 in March) and Duncan Robinson)).

3. James Harden is going to have to blow up the Sixers to get out. And he just might do that. Maybe he'll realize no one wants his lazy ass anymore? The Clippers sure don't. This could cause Embiid to ask out. The nightmare scenario for everyone else would be Embiid for Jaylen Brown and a bunch of pieces from the Celtics.

4. Some media types already floating the idea that Giannis may still want out if things don't work out in Milwaukee this year. Give me an F'in break. Lillard is under contact for at least 3 more year and is the same age as Holiday and at least a year younger than Harden, Curry, Durant, and Butler.

5. I really like what Portland did. If Scoot Henderson ends up being a top 10 player, they could be good really, really soon. Henderson, S. Sharpe, Simons, Robert Williams, Ayton, Brogdon, Jerami Grant, and Thybulle might be a 5 or 6 seed right now in the West.

Last edited by MichiganPacker

I agree on Portland.  That has the makings of a pretty good team and they reworked their roster in one offseason and acquired some trade capital for the future.  

As for Milwaukee, the Giannis not re-upping seems like crazy talk,  but if that nuclear scenario would occur they could literally get two or three times back in return what Portland got for Dame.  And they still have Dame who they could flip for a couple of players or picks.  The Bucks are in a great spot IMO.

Boston has made some interesting moves but I do wonder about losing guys like Smart and Grant Williams.  Heart and soul of that team.  Getting Jrue Holiday helps but they also gave up arguably their best rim protector and rebounder in the process.   I hate Porzingis - the guy is a tease and has done nothing in the NBA and he’s soft as tissue paper.  Boston is also betting big on Derrick White and that’s a lot of what ifs.  Not to mention how much longer can they roll out a 150 year old Al Horford?

The three teams to watch now are Miami, Philadelphia, and Dallas.   They each have a star but aren’t going anywhere.  Would Dallas trade a Luka or Philly trade an Embiid or Miami trade Butler?   I think it’s completely possible given what other teams have gotten back for star players.

The only way that trade makes any sense for Boston is if they extend Holiday.  Given his age I’m not sure that’s a good idea.  His play on both ends of the court really fell off this past year.  While he’s still an above average starter, I don’t think he’s a difference maker anymore.  

It also does make you wonder if the other shoe may drop with Jaylen Brown.   Contract or not, he doesn’t fit well with Tatum and even less so if they plan to feature Derrick White more in the offense.  The problem is if you deal him that team goes from being OK to above average defensively to well below average.  Basically they become the Eastern Conference version of the Dallas Mavericks.

Boston could probably get a decent return for Jaylen Brown, but I doubt teams are going to want to give up young up and coming players for a max guy that is really good but not great at anything.

To me, that’s the thing with these trade proposals.   You have to be acquiring someone that’s elite in at least a key aspect of their game - like Holiday was 3 years ago defensively and what Dame is now offensively.  Embiid is a guy like Giannis that’s great on both ends of the court so if Philly was ever going to make a bold move now would be the time to do it.  

Last edited by Tschmack

When Holiday was on the Bucks, the national media treated him as an afterthought. Now he goes to Boston, and some are pumping him up as maybe more important than Lillard.

I love Jrue and he'll be good this upcoming year, but I wouldn't want to be the one extending him into his late 30s. I would hate to be paying him 40 million a year when he's 35 and 36 years old. He's going to be a PJ Tucker type pretty soon. A valuable player, but a lot of money to play to a very limited offensive player.

Jrue in "pressure" close out games as a Buck (either lose and go home, or Game 6 or Game 7s).

Game 6 Hawks, 2021, 11 for 23 from the floor, 4 for 12 from three

Game 6 Nets, 2021. 8 for 21 from the floor, 1 for 10 from three.

Game 7 Nets, 2021. 5 for 23 from the floor, 2 for 9 from three

Game 6 Suns, 2021. 4 for 19 from the floor, 2 for 7 from three

Game 6 Celtics, 2022. 7 for 17 from the floor, 3 for 10 from three

Game 7 Celtics 2022. 9 for 21 from the floor, 0 for 6 from three

Game 5 Heat 2023. 4 for 11 from the floor, 2 for 6 from three

14 for 60 from three in those 7 pressure situations. That's Eric Bledsoe level.

Last edited by MichiganPacker

Holiday was excellent defensively in the 2021 playoffs against the Hawks and Suns.  Tucker was the star defensively against Durant in the Nets series that year.

The last two years he’s been abused by Tatum and Brown and Butler.   Offensively,  he’s barely shooting 30% from 3 in the last two playoff years.  

Dame Time has a career 37% from 3 in the postseason and his last 3 playoff years he’s over 40%.

The Bucks were going to be a contender this year, but the whole regular season was going to be a bit boring. They were going to run it back with the same exact group and it was going to be a long and somewhat meaningless regular season. Anywhere from the 1st to the 6th seed wouldn't really matter. Now they are must watch TV.

In the end, whether it's Eric Bledsoe, Jrue Holiday, or Damian Lillard the most important factor in the playoffs will still be Giannis. And specifically, how Giannis shoots from the FT line.

In 2019 when the Raptors eliminated them, Giannis was 17 for 36 from the FT line in the 4 losses. Bledsoe was terrible, but if Giannis hits 70% from the line, the Bucks probably go on and win that title.

In 2020, Giannis got hurt in Game 4, but in the first three games they lost he was 20 for 37 from the line.

2021, we all remember the 17 for 19 in the close out game from the line. If Giannis shoots something like 10 for 19 in that game, the Suns may have won that series. But before that, one of the reasons they barely squeaked by the Nets without Irving was that Giannis was 29 for 60 from the line in that series.

In 2022, Giannis was really good from the line in the Celtics series. If Middleton is healthy, the Bucks probably win the title.

In 2023, Giannis was 14 for 31. If he shoots 70%, the Bucks probably beat the Heat.

I love Giannis, but all of his "the Bucks have to keep going all out to win a title or I'll leave stuff" is getting old. Just STFU with all the "they have to try to keep me happy" subplot stuff and make your FTs. I'm not expecting him to ever be able to shoot from the 3 point line or hit a mid-range jumper like Middleton, but how about stopping being a head case and hit your FTs? He has arguably cost them 2 titles because he can't hit FTs in pressure situations. I'm sure he works hard at it and no one wants to succeed more than he does. But, it won't matter if Dame goes for 40 in a Game 7 against the Celtics or Nuggets, if Giannis goes 8 for 20 from the line.

It’s truly as simple as believing you’re going to make the free throw as opposed to hoping you’re going to make the free throw. I stayed at my daughter and son-in-laws apartment complex in Evanston IL last month where they have a beautiful indoor basketball court. I have probably shot a basketball 5 times in 30 years. I went down and shot solo for about 20 minutes and then held a solo free throw contest. I hit 7 of 10. Sign me!

@Blair Kiel posted:

It’s truly as simple as believing you’re going to make the free throw as opposed to hoping you’re going to make the free throw. I stayed at my daughter and son-in-laws apartment complex in Evanston IL last month where they have a beautiful indoor basketball court. I have probably shot a basketball 5 times in 30 years. I went down and shot solo for about 20 minutes and then held a solo free throw contest. I hit 7 of 10. Sign me!

It's the same for me. I was a 91% FT shooter in high school. I once hit 93 in a row in practice. I could go out and warm up for 10 minutes right now and hit 70 of 100 without having shot in a year.

Giannis is obviously not the only superstar that has struggled from the line. Chamberlain was infamous for it. Bill Russell was 56% for his career. Shaq was laughable at times. Those are 3 of the top 10 players of all time. Dwight Howard (someone who should be a Hall of a Famer) is at 57%. What has bothered me is this clear narrative that the Bucks have to keep selling out to give him the best shot to win a title, when their best shot is to have him shoot 75% from the line. He never talks about that in these interviews. What he should say is that the Bucks have done a great job acquiring great players and great teammates and that he needs to be better to take advantage of it.

@Blair Kiel posted:

You’re Rick Barry?

No. I shot overhand. But when you grow up on a dairy farm in central Wisconsin in the days with 3 TV channels, you spend a lot of time in a hay mow shooting with Jim Irwin or Eddie Doucette on in the background after chores. On average, I used to shoot at least 100 FTs a night. My problem was that the floor in the hay mow was only about 12 feet wide. Kind of limited shots from the side.

What people tend to forget about Eric Bledsoe and Jrue Holiday is despite both guys being terrible from the 3pt line in the postseason - 25% for Bledsoe and 33% for Holiday - they also didn’t hit a good percentage of FTs.  Bledsoe was only a 70% guy in the playoffs from the charity stripe.  Holiday was better, but not last year (69%).

Damian Lillard is a career 89% FT guy in the playoffs and the last few years (playoffs) he was low 90s%.  In many of these close games it’s a big deal as he’s the primary ball handler.  If you foul him (like Middleton) it’s pretty much automatic.   Yet another reason why Dame is such a big addition.  In crunch time he will be initiating the offense and not Giannis so defensively that puts way more pressure in how you execute.  Dame forces maximum floor spacing because of his range which should create easier and better opportunities for guys to get open and hit less contested shots.  You can’t pack the paint unless you want to leave a Middleton or Lopez or Dame wide ass open for a 3.  And if you play them straight up, almost no one can handle Giannis 1 on 1 down low.  

Last edited by Tschmack
@Tschmack posted:

What people tend to forget about Eric Bledsoe and Jrue Holiday is despite both guys being terrible from the 3pt line in the postseason - 25% for Bledsoe and 33% for Holiday - they also didn’t hit a good percentage of FTs.  Bledsoe was only a 70% guy in the playoffs from the charity stripe.  Holiday was better, but not last year (69%).



Eric Bledsoe and Jrue were very similar players. Elite on-ball defenders who generated a lot of their offense by physically overpowering smaller guards and getting to the rim in regular season games. Jrue is just a little better at everything than Bledsoe was (36% vs. 33% 3 point shooting; 46% vs. 45% FG shooting; 18 ppg vs. 16 ppg in their Bucks careers). They were both horrendous on offense in the playoffs because the benches shorten and the crappy 2nd team guards they could back into the paint and get to the rim against don't get playoff minutes (or those teams don't make the playoffs). In their Bucks playoff careers Jrue was 39.6 from the field and 30.4 from the 3 point line. Bledsoe was actually much better inside the arc but even worse from behind it in the playoffs (44.5% and 25.4%).

The reason Holiday is still coveted by every contender in the league and Bledsoe is playing in China is that when he started missing shots in the playoffs, Bledsoe basically curled up in a fetal position and was helpless. When Jrue was trending towards one of the worst playoff high-volume shooting games in history (John Starks level bad) he hit 3 of the biggest shots in Bucks history.

In Game 7 against the Nets, Holiday started the game 2-6 from the field when he hit a FG with 3:51 left in the first quarter. In the next 35 minutes of game time, he missed 11 shots in a row. Then, he hit 3 for 4 shots in a 2 minute span to save the Bucks' season (he did miss a FT down the stretch). Bledsoe would have been lucky to hit the rim in that situation, but Holiday kept shooting when he was open.

That’s why the Boston move is curious.  They almost had to trade for Holiday just to keep up with Milwaukee but Marcus Smart was a much better 3pt shooter than Jrue and he’s 3 years younger.  I get it that you only have one basketball to go around but Smart made some big shots for them and was more reliable than Holiday.  Now, I think Holiday is a better passer and defender but his play really dropped off the last two postseasons for Milwaukee.  

What should concern Boston now is at least with Grant Williams and Robert Williams and Marcus Smart they could pester Giannis defensively.   Porzingis is a horrible defender and how much longer can Al Horford play at a relatively high level?   Derrick White is a capable defender but he’s no Marcus Smart.  

First article speculating that the Bucks may already regret the Lillard trade since Holiday ended up in Boston.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/...trade-boston-celtics

The same media guys who spent years talking up Marcus Smart as a better player than Holiday (and a DPOY winner) are now saying Holiday is a huge step up.

Ultimately, Boston has two big issues. The biggest problem is that Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum don't really like each other. Brown has been vocal about the fact that Tatum has been trying to recruit guys that would require Brown to be traded away (Durant). That, and the fact they are relying heavily on 37 year old Al Horford and a guy who three teams in the last 4 years (Knicks, Mavs, and the Wizards) wanted to dump instead of pay (Porzingis) for interior defense. Their third big guy is Luke Kornet.



Just look at the lineups in terms of rankings each rosters best players. The Bucks are 10-11 guys deep with competent NBA players (only about 8 are playable in the playoffs). The Celtics have 6 guys.

1. Giannis/Tatum

2. Lillard/Brown

3. Middleton/Holiday

4. B. Lopez/Porzingis

5. Portis/Horford

6. Connaughton/White

7. Crowder/Pritchard

8-11. Payne/Beasley/Beauchamp/R. Lopez vs. Hauser/Kornet/G league guys

I'd say the Bucks are not pleased with Jrue ending up in Boston.  I actually wondered if they'd add a clause into the trade that they were prohibited to trade Jrue to the Celtics or Heat.  Unsure if that's even possible in the NBA, but didn't the Packers include something similar when Fare was traded to the Jets regarding Minnesota?  Like if the Jets turn around and trade Favre to the Vikings, the compensation increases to like a first rounder? 

The Celtics panicked IMO.  I say this because when the Holiday trade was announced they overpaid for Jrue.  2 #1s and Robert Williams is a lot to give up for a 33 year old guy on an expiring contract.  Boston almost has to extend him now considering what they gave up, and is that a good decision?   If you think Holiday will play like he did 2-3 years ago, perhaps.  But as much as we all love Holiday, he got abused against Miami and really wasn’t that great against Tatum and Boston the year before.  

I still want to know who on Boston will defend Lopez and Giannis now.  A 150 year old Al Horford?  The Bucks also have a lot better bench depth and that matters in the playoffs.  As good as Butler was against Milwaukee the Heat role players killed us.

Last edited by Tschmack
@CUPackFan posted:

I'd say the Bucks are not pleased with Jrue ending up in Boston.  I actually wondered if they'd add a clause into the trade that they were prohibited to trade Jrue to the Celtics or Heat.  Unsure if that's even possible in the NBA, but didn't the Packers include something similar when Fare was traded to the Jets regarding Minnesota?  Like if the Jets turn around and trade Favre to the Vikings, the compensation increases to like a first rounder?

I think the poison pill in the Favre deal was 3 first rounders if he was traded to the Vikings. I’d imagine Portland wouldn’t have been receptive to limiting their return for the biggest piece they received in the trade, if the NBA even allows poison pills.

No. I shot overhand. But when you grow up on a dairy farm in central Wisconsin in the days with 3 TV channels, you spend a lot of time in a hay mow shooting with Jim Irwin or Eddie Doucette on in the background after chores. On average, I used to shoot at least 100 FTs a night. My problem was that the floor in the hay mow was only about 12 feet wide. Kind of limited shots from the side.

I would fall asleep with my transistor under my pillow listening to Eddie Doucette yell BANGO!!! as he exaggerated every Jon McGlocklin jumper into a 35 footer.

Curtis Sky King Perry, The Big O, Lucious Allen, Alcindor...great memories.

It’s possible we could still be wrong and Dame comes alive in the postseason and becomes the guy we thought we were getting before the season started.  

But that seems way less likely right now than him closing up shop and forcing a trade.  

Anthony Davis helped LA get another ring but has been an albatross since.  

Durant didn’t get Brooklyn over the hump and it’s not likely he helps Phoenix win a title either.  Kyrie in Boston and Dallas has been a nothing burger.   Jimmy Butler has been good post Minnesota, but the Heat haven’t won a ring since LeBron bailed.   Paul George to the Clippers hasn’t worked.  And we all know James Harden hasn’t helped any of the teams he’s been traded to get a title.  

There are probably more examples of superstars not leading their acquiring teams to championships with a few examples like Kareem and LeBron that were much younger anyway than a 33 year old in Dame.  Maybe Kevin Garnett to the Celtics or Big O (ironically) to the Bucks.  

Last edited by Tschmack

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