Gary D'Amato: Questions about McCarthy

NFL football is a polarizing sport. This season has been particularly polarizing for the Packers. Fast start, three game losing streak, home losses to the entire division and then (2) play-off games in which the Packers appeared to play at a level at which was closer to what we thought they would be. It all leads to so much second guessing (plenty of it warranted).

The Packers are not a team that makes knee jerk reactions. Continuity and consistency are generally good things in this sport. With the relative level of success, I would guess that there will be some tinkering to the staff, but under this regime, I am 100% certain that if Capers wants to retain his job, he retains his job. The defense played pretty well. The offense will probably see more of the tinkering.

If they have a weakness, it appears to be in the area of self scouting. It is either that or they have blinders on and want to adhere so closely to their preordained path that they have difficulties in changing or adjusting.

I am not sure how to work on the end of game situations. To even be in position to win means that they have significant mental toughness. I am not sure how to fix that problem, but I am sure that they will attempt to figure out how to be better prepared.

It will be interesting to see what happens this offseason.

At what point do coincidences become trends?

the last 3 seasons they've blown 4th quarter leads in the playoffs.  

0-8-1 in their last 9 overtime games. 0-7 with Rodgers. 0-4 in the playoffs (one with Favre). 

3-14 on the road vs teams with winning records since 2012. Houston in 2012 and Minn/Washington this year. 

Why were injuries the onły reason Janis and Abbrederis got to see the field?

Aaron Rodgers is now 7-6 in the postseason with 1 Super Bowl win. That's the same record Peyton Manning had in his first 13 playoff games. 

Tdog posted:

it's hard to win in the NFL, it's harder to win a SB in the NFL, yet damn near every year my GBP has a shot at it.  Thanks TT & MM!

you may resume despairing in your delusions of incessant guaranteed grandeur...     I'm looking forward to all the turns and twists of the 2016 season.

EVERY ****ING YEAR we're in the conversation

I like what we have.

Even the Ravens, who are a very good organization, won a grand total of 5 games this year. It is tough to win in this league, year in, year out, consistently.

I wish we got to play in the AFC instead of the Patriots. Yeah the scoreboard would be dramatically different.

2 losing seasons in 22 years. Including 2 World Championships.

Yes, the Green Bay Packers are the gold standard.

MichiganPacker2 posted:

If you use the HOF QB logic, then Belichick (Brady), Tomlin (Big Ben), Cowher (Big Ben), Payton (Brees), Dungy (Manning), Lombardi (Starr), Landry (Staubach), Stram (Dawson), Walsh (Montana), and Jimmy Johnson (Aikman) among others all just got lucky because hey happened to get a QB.

Remember, the '58 Packers, with all those future Pro Bowlers and Hall of Famers, went 1-10-1. Bart Starr had shown little before Lombardi came to Green Bay. While Bart was responsible for throwing the ball, Lombardi gets a lot of the credit for helping him to reach his potential. The argument could also be made that Brett Favre played some of his best football of the post Holmgren era once McCarthy came to Green Bay. In 2005, Favre had a 70.9 QB rating, throwing a career high 29 picks. McCarthy comes to Green Bay in 2006, and Favre cuts the picks down to 18, though his overall QB rating doesn't improve by that much. But in 2007, Favre completes 66.5% of his passes for 4,155 yards, 28 TD and only 15 picks en route to a 95.7 rating, his highest since his second MVP season.

McCarthy does some things very well. He's got a wonderful offensive mind. This season shouldn't be any indictment of his acumen because there were so many injuries to work around. But he does some things that drive us all mad. He is a poor clock manager, for one. 

The ultimate question is, who out there is available that would represent an improvement over Mike McCarthy? Because getting rid of him for the sake of change would be a disaster. You don't make a move because you are unhappy with his lack of post season success since 2010. You make a move because hiring a new coach immediately improves your team. If you can't do that, you don't make the change.

Some of the failure does rest at McCarthy's feet. It always stops with the Head Coach. But while I realize injuries are a part of the game all 32 teams deal with, and you play with who you have, I think Mike McCarthy has had to coach on the fly to counteract key injuries more than most other winning coaches. Let's not forget just how rough it was in 2010. Players were dropping like flies, not only during the season itself, but in the Super Bowl, too. We lost our all-time leading receiver in Donald Driver, and a sure fire first ballot Hall of Famer in Charles Woodson. Aaron Rodgers was brilliant, yes, but how much of that is due to the preparation McCarthy and Rodgers had together? 

Winning in the NFL is hard. While every other franchise looks at the success the Patriots have had in the past fifteen years with envy, anybody who claims the Packers have been unsuccessful is being a tad disingenuous. In his ten seasons, Mike McCarthy has taken his team to the playoffs eight times. We've won our division in five of those ten years, made it to the NFC Championship Game three times, and have won a Super Bowl. While every team would like to have the New England Patriots' level of success, I've got a sneaking suspicion that fans in a lot of other NFL cities would love to have the Packers level of success, too. While I'd always welcome another Super Bowl win, I've seen Favre and Rodgers, Holmgren and McCarthy each hoist a Lombardi of their own in my lifetime. Let's appreciate the level of success we've had, and not let this latest disappointment cause us to do something rash. Because while a new Head Coach might be sexier in the interim than this comfortable old pair of slippers we have now, those slippers keep my feet warm in December and January when my team is still playing meaningful football games, while a lot of other teams are already dreaming of "next year". 

I am not in any way advocating replacing MM this offseason.  But if the question is asked of who else is out there, "Chip Kelly, Doug Pederson, Mike Smith, etc", you have to look in the same places TT found MM.   He was relatively unknown but had been around the block.  Lots of guys like that out there.  But not a lot of guys out there like that that can do what MM has done so far.

I'm a little late to this conversation....but I stuck with the concept of "Be careful what you wish for."

 Maybe I am a complacent old fool.  But as a general rule I'm more of a "bird in the hand" guy than a "grass is greener" guy.  

What guarantee could there possibly be that any kind of change in Packer hierarchy won't cause them to take a step or more backwards.  I am happy with making the playoffs every year....being a deflected ball or a dropped ball from the SuperBowl or NFC Championship game.  I like the odds of the break going the Packers way next time.  If you aren't in the playoffs, you don't have any chance of getting the break.

But that's just me.

Legitimate questions and as far as criticism goes it's pretty tepid stuff.  As the last two painful playoff losses show, the team struggles to finish and that's on MM. Not advocating replacing him at this time, but let's not sugarcoat his record and simply getting into the postseason shouldn't be good enough.

MM is like a lovable bumbling uncle who comes to visit every year. He brings great presents and he is fun to have around BUT he bumbles a little at times and usually ends up breaking your grandmothers prize vase or your wifes good crystal wine glass.

I firmly believe an overhaul of the assistant coaches is in order. MM's loyalty is put above the well being and success of the team. The team should be MM's top priority. That is why he was hired.

So how is the big play in OT on MM?  What could he have done better to prepare the D for that play?  So it's not MM but Capers and the fact that MM still employs Capers?  How could Capers have prevented that play?  Guys were in position to stop it.  Some of the D's best players had shots at stopping it and they didn't.  If it was a blown coverage, who blew it?  Capers?  So maybe it's that his D is too complicated and lends itself to blown coverages?  That same D kept the NFL's #1 offense in check for most of the game and if not for several dropped INT's, would have held them to even less.

The game plan (including scheme!) and execution of it (players and coaches) was good enough to get to OT vs #1 O and top five D.  And they shouldn't have even made it to OT.  That while relying on your #6 and #7 WR in an offense that lives by the pass. If not for 2 ridiculously low percentage plays working, we would be talking a lot more about how well we played instead of how we should have won.  If we pick off even one more of those balls that hit our DB's hands, we'd be talking about a win.  I see Saturday night as a helluva lotta overachieving, punctuated by 2 plays of underachieving.  Crunch time is the key but you have to be good enough to GET to crunch time in the first place.

MM is getting criticized for losing 5 OT (or last play) playoff games in his career. 3 of those losses were on the road - which means his team (at least by seeding) was the underdog. So you could argue they played above their heads in those games.

Any criticism of MM would have to be on being too conservative or keeping weak assistants around (Slocum) or to some people's thoughts, Capers.

His 7 playoff losses are the following:

2015 season - at Cardinals in OT. Peppers blows a coverage and 5 guy miss tackles on the key play. A richochet TD and a dropped Shields interception. Is this MM's fault?  It was not a poor coaching job. The only possible quibble is not going for 2, but I still think it was the right call not to.

2014 - at Seahawks in OT. You could argue this was too conservative a game plan, but Bostick, AJ Hawk on the fake FG, Dix on the alley oop 2 point conversion, Peppers/Burnett on the give yourself up interception, etc. etc. etc. all have to go wrong to lose. MM could have been more aggressive several times - this is the most obvious case for that.

2013- San Francisco in GB. Last second field goal. The Packers tied it on a FG to make it 20-20 with 5 minutes left on a 4th and 6 from the 6 (an obvious decision to kick the FG) and the defense allowed SF to eat up the rest of the clock (and convert 3rd and 8 and 3rd and 10).

2012 - San Francisco - The Kaepernik debacle. MM's fault for Capers not preparing them? The head coach is in charge, I know, but an unscouted offensive strategy that killed them.

2011 - NY Giants - I still think the Philbin situation was a huge contributor to this.

2010 - Super Bowl

2009 - Arizona face mask OT fumble return. A terrible missed referee call decides it. The only opportunity to be more aggressive was when Crosby kicked a FG with the ball on the 2 to get the Packers back within 24-10 (remember they started this game down 17-0 and forced OT.

2007 - Favre'd. A horrific Interception in OT.

Were any of these games decided by poor coaching? Some are more debateable than others.  Other than the 2 blowout losses (2011 and 2012), the team was well prepared. In many of the losses, guys just blew assignments or made dumb plays. Peppers yesterday, about 8 guys in 2014, Favre in 2007.

Rodgers in his last 3 playoff losses, he led a game-tying drive in the final 6 minutes of the 4th quarter each game. After tying each game he never touched the ball again.

All excellent points!  While we can take some comfort in the Packers 2016 schedule maybe being a little easier, remember too the other teams in our division are catching up.  So MM and TT can't continue "business as usual" at 1265 Lombardi Ave.

YATittle posted:

Rodgers in his last 3 playoff losses, he led a game-tying drive in the final 6 minutes of the 4th quarter each game. After tying each game he never touched the ball again.

That is it in a nutshell.  Yay Dom!

MichiganPacker posted:

 

Any criticism of MM would have to be on being too conservative or keeping weak assistants around (Slocum) or to some people's thoughts, Capers.

I think that'd be my criticism. Assistants are fine, IMO, but MM tends to get conservative when the game is on the line. It works sometimes, but vs. a team like SEA or ARI the past couple years, you have to keep your foot on the gas.

MM also seems slow to adapt to new challenges. He sort of tends to stay the course with certain schemes or personnel groupings longer than he should. MM has a great football mind though, so when he does make adjustments they're typically effective.

Jody posted:

Gosh, if only we could hire Lovie......................

He would make a great DC.

Why is Peppers being blamed for the loss? That's crazy. Which one of us would have called a defensive scheme that has Peppers dropping back to cover Fitzgerald in a zone? That was a horrific call. Capers regularly drops linemen back, and we get to watch Neal or Datone Jones trying to stay on their feet in open field. Or he has Ryan covering a halfback. That's smart. Capers 4th quarter disasters are on McCarthy. He had the defense playing great at times this year, which proves he had the chess pieces. But in a crucial situation he made the wrong move. He's made the wrong move often in crucial situations. Time for a change, if for no other reason than to let Rodgers know that they are dedicated to at least try something new. Rodgers has far too often watched the D crap the bed in overtime while he stands on the sidelines. That's why he was such a whiner when it came to the coin toss. He wanted the ball because he had little confidence Capers wouldn't screw up. Capers did. Let's give Rodgers hope that next time the D can make a stop.

I actually had more confidence in the Packers defense getting a stop in OT than I did in the Packer offense driving 80 yards for a TD.

Boris posted:

 

I wish we got to play in the AFC instead of the Patriots. Yeah the scoreboard would be dramatically different.

 

I don't know why this never gets more attention than it does. Sports fans openly acknowledge the joke that the NBA's Eastern Conference is, to the point that semi serious discussions have occurred about doing away with conferences all together.

Yet we can't discuss that Bill and Tom's Excellent Adventure has been a 3-team race with only brief cameos by Luck, Flacco, Sanchez and Rivers in the AFCC. There are essentially 9 teams that never even pretended to pose a threat over the last 14 seasons.

In the NFC, only the Cowboys and Redskins haven't appeared in the championship game during that same window, and most teams have had multiple showings. 

I think we should fire MM immediately. I hate being in contention every year.

FreeSafety posted:

I actually had more confidence in the Packers defense getting a stop in OT than I did in the Packer offense driving 80 yards for a TD.

Bingo. I figured their best chance to win was to get a stop and kick a 50 yard field goal. Even if they get the ball to start OT, how confident would any of us be that they'd score a TD and end it? The two most likely outcomes are a punt or a field goal. A punt means they may have to drive about 20 yards to kick a FG for the win assuming an average Masthay punt that day and a Packer FG means a TD still beats them. Before, you say they had momentum, here's some stats to consider in the two games vs. the Cardinals this year.

22 Offensive drives (plus one kneel down at the end of the first half in Game 1)

5 ended in turnovers (3 fumbles - 2 returned for TDs and one recovered at the GB 30 and 2 interceptions both in GB territory.

8 3 and outs

2 FG drives of 85 yards and 71 yards

1 78 yard drive turnover on downs

3 Short drives -not 3 and outs: 23, 21, and 19 yards

2 TD drives that required 4th down conversions: 80 yard with two hail Mary's; 81 yard drive in Game 1 that required a 4th and 6 conversion when the Packers were behind 31-0

1 "Standard" TD drive with no 4th down conversions. (The drive where Rodgers hit Janis with an 8 yard TD pass after Eddie Lacy finished a 61 yard run by running about a 12 flat for the last 40 yards).

You have to assume that MM would not have gone for a 4th down in his own territory or within FG range, so the 2 drives that would have required a 4th down conversion were not happening in OT.

So, based on the offenses performances against the Cardinals this year, he had essentially a 1 in 22 chance of ending the game with a TD. 

Giving them the benefit of the doubt that the "Hail Mary" drive would have otherwise ended up with a FG and that they've had made the ~45 yard FG instead of going for 4th and 6 in the first game in garbage time, they drive long enough to kick at least a FG about 6 of 22 possessions.

Less than 5% to end the game.

Less than 30% to kick a FG and force Arizona to do at least the same.

I can't see placing much blame on this year's Packers given the injury situation especially at receiver.

Regardless, the debacle against the Seahawks last year as well as the astonishing defensive breakdowns against the same Hawks and the Cardinals at 100% critical moments in the games doesn't look good, in my opinion.

Maybe MM should go crazy and never punt and onside kick every time next year. It works for this high school coach.

https://www.washingtonpost.com...nother-radical-idea/

Statistically, I can understand punting if it's 4th and 10. You come out light years ahead statistically if you go for it on 4th and short every time. It's basically MoneyBall concepts for football, but no one has the guts to do it.

YATittle posted:

Rodgers in his last 3 playoff losses, he led a game-tying drive in the final 6 minutes of the 4th quarter each game. After tying each game he never touched the ball again.

And yet, Skip Bayless will find a way to blame him for the losses.

His other three losses were:

1. Loses 45-31 in the Kaepernick game. Unless AR12 was sneaking onto the defense to play with Eric Walden's jersey it's pretty hard to assign him any blame for allowing Kaepernik to run for 181 yards.

2. 2011 season - the Giants game (again, Philbin's son died that week) . This is really the only dud - but the whole team looked out of sync.

3. 2009 season - Cardinals playoff game. Brought Green Bay back from 17-0, 38-24, and 45-38 deficits to tie the game each time. Missed a TD to Jennings at the start of OT, but then got an uncalled face mask to end the game.

Contrast this with Favre, who, one could argue, was significantly responsible for three close playoff losses. Awful INT. in Philly game in OT, Awful INT. in Giants OT game, and the classic 6 pick St. Louis Rams playoff game.

Why do you even Ponder throwing there...

MichiganPacker posted:

FreeSafety posted:

I actually had more confidence in the Packers defense getting a stop in OT than I did in the Packer offense driving 80 yards for a TD.

Bingo. I figured their best chance to win was to get a stop and kick a 50 yard field goal. Even if they get the ball to start OT..............................................

 

..........................................Less than 5% to end the game.

Less than 30% to kick a FG and force Arizona to do at least the same.

And due to all the other stuff MP had posted, I still think the correct call was to go for 2.  In fact I wish they had done it after the 1st TD to go up 14-7 instead of only 13-7. 

I don't know, dropping a lineman into coverage worked pretty good for Raji in Chicago once and I seem to remember Peppers having a pick six against the Queens when he dropped into a zone.  Now, McCown and Ponder aren't Palmer, but sometimes it works.

Hud posted:

I'd keep McCarthy, but he'd be on the hot seat this year. As would TT.  As would Capers. They have all made  glaring mistakes over the past few years. McCarthy in his conservative approach, in game planning and not giving  players like Janis opportunities to see what they can do. TT in his inexcusable refusal to at least try to stop the bleeding at positions of obvious weakness. And Capers, despite a very good year this year, continually changing the D in late game situations and going prevent zone at the worst possible times. There is a reason we have lost 7 playoff games and 5 on the last play... the other team's coaches found a way to win, our coaches found a way to lose, or luck. I don't believe it's all luck.

 

I'd put more merit into your comments if you weren't calling for MM or TT or someone to be fired yearly.  When did the MM/TT countdown begin for you?  9 years ago?

Proverbial **** at the wall.

The biggest reason why both MM and TT should continue course is they do actively critique and adjust.  For as many superstar players there is a **** ton of luck in this game as well.  While the philosophy hasn't changed, and rightly so, the course corrections have occurred.  That to me shows that the tenure hasn't turned stale like we saw with the Sherman era.  There are plenty of "great" coaches that haven't won ****.  

Is there reason to pay attention to trends?  Yes, but that's what we do as Packer fans.  I absolutely agree MM needs to be a little more cut throat with his coaching staff and TT could shake a few more trees but overall this organization hasn't become relic collapsing in on itself.  I'm guessing TT and MM are just aware of the playoff collapses as anyone.  When I hear MM grousing about things in TT's purview I don't see it as trouble, I see it as acknowledgement and you know TT isn't coming to the podium to soothe our concerns.  

It's winning football and after the last couple years this team does need a bit of edge to punch some mother****ers in the mouth but I do think Pittsburgh macho can play that game.  TT is starting to take some more flyers on guys and we bitch about it.  Point is you want a team like Seattle you're going to have a bevy of douchebags.  Do we need a Wayne Simmons?  Hell, maybe but the underlying philosophy has to remain in tact because it is proven.  When TT and MM throw the ****ing kitchen sink at FA and the draft like some of these teams I'll know they need to go and are out of ideas.  

Get some consultants, roll over some coaches, put the fear of god in the players, absolutely but MM and TT have a job a finish.

I think McLazystupidface is on the hot seat for one reason and one reason alone.

0 Janis! jet sweeps.

"We gotta fix that"

I believe Cobb got a Jet Sweep against just to shut the fukers on X4 up. McCarthy wasn't going to give them the satisfaction of seeing Janis run it.

ChilliJon posted:

SteveLuke posted:

ChilliJon posted:

Steve, I don't know what the **** to make of you. I'm hedging on you being a Viking fan. I do know you don't love the Packers. So I kind of view you as a dick. 

I just don't happen to believe that pretending that getting to and winning just 1 Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers at QB makes the Pack the envy of every other NFL franchise. 

Then what do you believe in? 

You seem very angry.

Henry posted:

Hud posted:

I'd keep McCarthy, but he'd be on the hot seat this year. As would TT.  As would Capers. They have all made  glaring mistakes over the past few years. McCarthy in his conservative approach, in game planning and not giving  players like Janis opportunities to see what they can do. TT in his inexcusable refusal to at least try to stop the bleeding at positions of obvious weakness. And Capers, despite a very good year this year, continually changing the D in late game situations and going prevent zone at the worst possible times. There is a reason we have lost 7 playoff games and 5 on the last play... the other team's coaches found a way to win, our coaches found a way to lose, or luck. I don't believe it's all luck.

 

I'd put more merit into your comments if you weren't calling for MM or TT or someone to be fired yearly.  When did the MM/TT countdown begin for you?  9 years ago?

Proverbial **** at the wall.

The only **** around here is what spews out of your mouth every time someone makes the slightest criticism of the Packers. Get it, you're the super fan, the rest of us are trolls. Now keep'em coming, those long posts that say nothing. 

Yeah, not even remotely in the ball park.  I would never claim super fandom because that's just ****ing stupid.  I'm just observant of human nature and **** people trot out.  Don't blame me for hoisting you on your own retard.  

Henry posted:

Yeah, not even remotely in the ball park.  I would never claim super fandom because that's just ****ing stupid.  I'm just observant of human nature and **** people trot out.  Don't blame me for hoisting you on your own retard.  

The only thing you've ever hoisted is you're overblown ego. Continue to flatter yourself - "I'm observant of human nature" - arrogant P****

Patriot's record in the post season on the road is 0-2. The Packers won 3 road playoff games just to get to SB 45...

I was highly critical of MM in the aftermath of Saturday night. I pointed to the four point lead in the third quarter...Cards had just kicked a fg to get within four. If i recall correctly the previous GB drive was the 61 yd run by Lacy, the proverbial punch in the mouth that convinced me we had taken over the game. Had the drive that followed led to GB points, I thought the game was over. In my estimation that was MM's chance to go for the throat and it didn't feel to me like he did.

The defense in regulation played well enough to get the victory. It looked to me like Capers had found the recipe to compete with the Arizona offense. The Packer offense looked like their stagnant self save for a couple scoring drives, but it was impressive that they sustained drives the way we hadn't seen most of the year.

Now that the emotion of the loss is gone, I look at this season as one that was highly frustrating to watch. Most games didn't showcase the high octane offense we're accustomed to, and each win seemed like a slog to outlast the opponent.

All that said.....I must give credit to MM in this regard. As far as I'm concerned, he had his team playing its best football during the final two games of the season. It certainly wasn't at the level of last year's title game, but considering all the many obstacles this team faced all season, I can't ask for much more than a team peaking when it counts the most.

They "should" have won against a clearly more talented team.....in THEIR house. It sure doesn't win any trophies, but it does say something for the job all these people did, players and coaches, in sticking together and focusing on the task at hand.

2015 will be a lost year in the annals. Another playoff exit. Another year of Rodgers career "wasted". But the continuity in this organization, top to bottom, almost certainly guarantees we can and will be in the same spot next year. Perhaps this time healthier, perhaps with a bit more luck, perhaps with one or two or three more playmakers on the roster.

As much as MM drives avid Packer fans crazy with stupidface decisions in-game, I'd much rather stick with this formula than join the carousel of those teams floundering and reaching to find a competent head coach in the hopes of building what we already have in Green Bay, a proven formula.

Good post Artis.

Concur.  Nice summary.  Considering how lost in space this team appeared through the last two months of the season it is very impressive that they did what they did in WAS and much more so in ARZ.  It can be difficult to see the team through eyes other than a Packers fan but imagine another team having the same kind of year and then doing what they did in the playoffs.