2019 FA Season - A Wild Summer

Still waiting on Kawhi, but so far the Bucks would likely be #2 in the East in terms of betting. 

The Sixers lost Butler and Redick, but gained Horford and Josh Richardson. That is going to be a really good defensive team. Redick was the weak link on that end and now they can run out Embiid, Simmons, Horford, T. Harris, and Josh Richardson. If Embiid can stay healthy (a huge if), they have to be considered the favorites in the East. 

The Bucks lose Brogdon and Mirotic. Mirotic is a guy who is unplayable in the playoffs. They were 25-9 overall (playoffs and regular season) without Brogdon, but his loss still hurts. However, Hill is as good a defender and is a 38% career shooter from 3. If DD improves from his rookie year, they'll be fine there. There is probably another move or two coming with a MLE. That's the key. Who else can the Bucks get to come in and chase a ring? Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe, Lopez, G. Hill, DD, Ilyasova, Connaugton, and S. Brown are in the rotation now. I still think they need another big guy that can soak up 15-20 minutes. 

The Celtics don't scare me at all right now. Kemba Walker for Kyrie Irving and Rozier is a net loss. Losing Horford to the Sixers is a killer for them. Maybe they have another move coming, but they have gotten worse so far. 

With Durant out all year, if Kawhi bolts to LA, the East probably comes down to the Bucks and Sixers depending on who stays healthy.

I almost wonder if the Horford and Harris deals signal that Simmons isn’t part of their future.  I mean, they now have 3 guys making 25MM+ per year.  If a guy like Harrison Barnes or Julius Randle can make 20MM+ so will Simmons.  The only saving grace is he has a team friendly deal for this season but qualifying offer for the following could prove to be a dicey situation. 

Philly rolled the dice with Butler and it didn’t work.  I like Horford but man that’s a lot of money for an aging vet.  I think they will miss Redick like Indiana will miss Bogdonavic.  Those guys flat out shot the ball well. 

Philly is clearly sending a message to the Bucks though.  Giannis better step his game up as he now has to contend with Horford and Embiid defending him and at times both guys have done well against him.   By the way, who’s playing PG for the Sixers? 

The primary concern for Philly is Embiid.  If he can actually make it through an entire year healthy I think they are probably the team to beat.  If not, I think the Bucks are there. 

Coach posted:

https://onmilwaukee.com/sports...ill-free-agency.html

Hey coach!

Tschmack posted:

I almost wonder if the Horford and Harris deals signal that Simmons isn’t part of their future.  

Woj reported tonight the Sixers are talking extension with him. Don’t think he’s going anywhere. 

Music City posted:

Tschmack posted:

I almost wonder if the Horford and Harris deals signal that Simmons isn’t part of their future.  

Woj reported tonight the Sixers are talking extension with him. Don’t think he’s going anywhere. 

He's going to be massively overpaid. 

https://www.espn.com/nba/story...hy-staying-milwaukee

Khris says he’s already in the gym prepping for this season. Well, jeez, Khris- that’s swell. Maybe if you could have, I dunno, done that last year maybe you’d be signing your max deal after the parade. 

They’re all in on this hand. Nets aren’t a threat until 20-21, so it’s them and Philly, Boston will be tough I think, and I still get this feeling Indiana has plenty to say. 

Bring on football. This fall could be pretty special for football in Wisconsin. 

Andre Iguodala has been traded to Memphis for picks. Speculation that Iguodala isn’t interested in being part of a rebuild. Bucks interested? Fit would be decent- but he’s not the player he was. Is he enough to get limited minutes until playoff time when his experience on the biggest stage could be useful to a a Bucks team with none of it? 

Today was wild- and it’s far from over. 

Robin Lopez signs 2 yr deal w/Bucks.  Take that Sixers. 

Free agent center Robin Lopez has reached an agreement with the Milwaukee Bucks, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.

— Chris Haynes (@ChrisBHaynes) July 1, 2019

Whoa.....this could be fun. 

Need some 3 point shooters

I’m pretty sure this means they’re dealing Ilyasova, doesn’t it? I’ve heard some Joe Harris rumors... 

Seems like the Robin Lopez move was made with the playoffs in mind. Unlike his brother, Robin works almost exclusively in the paint down low on the block.  

As we saw against Toronto, they packed the paint and without true big man that kept them honest near the hoop they struggled.   While he isn’t much of an outside shooter, he is a decent offensive rebounder and gives them a big body that can match up defensively against guys like Marc Gasol and Joel Embiid.  

It would seem to me the rotation is basically set for the Bucks. 

PG:   Bledsoe,  Hill 

SG:   Brown, Pat C, DD 

SF:   Middleton, Pat C, Leuer 

PF:  Giannis, Ersan, DJ 

C:    B Lopez, R Lopez, DJ 

In an ideal world it would be nice to have another outside shooter but Brown and DJ both shot 36% from 3 and Pat C was OK at 34%.  DD is a wild card as he gave them nothing offensively but defensively he could replace Brogdon in the rotation. 

I also wonder if they may still make another move as I’m not sure they need Ersan and Leuer especially if they want to feature DJ Wilson some more.  Perhaps something else is pending .

Joe Harris for Ersan would be a great move.  Their salaries are almost identical and the Nets now have a logjam in the backcourt.  

He’s a really good 3pt shooter. 

Music City posted:

Andre Iguodala has been traded to Memphis for picks. Speculation that Iguodala isn’t interested in being part of a rebuild. Bucks interested? Fit would be decent- but he’s not the player he was. Is he enough to get limited minutes until playoff time when his experience on the biggest stage could be useful to a a Bucks team with none of it? 

Today was wild- and it’s far from over. 

Problem with Iguodala for the Bucks is the same one the Warriors had with him. He is no longer reliable from 3, so floor spacing gets messed up. He hit some 3s in the Finals, but he was left WIDE open constantly for a reason. 

I think Iggy ends up on the Sixers or Lakers at this point. 

Yeah, the Lopez move seems like a Philly lineup move- they can go really big, and now the Bucks can, too. 

I'm not sure how I feel about the loss of Brogdon.  I don't see him as a guy with a high ceiling, but he has a nice all around game and generally plays within himself really well.

If he wanted to leave Milwaukee, I can't help but wonder what the front office would have done had he wanted to stay.

George Hill will certainly help offset his loss and here's to Sterling Brown and/or DD doing so as well.

Nice that they got value for him.

Finally, I wonder if it is strict policy by the FO to never extend spending to the luxury tax.

Fantastic getting Robin for $5M? Wow. 1/3 price of what he played for last year, and 1/3 of what comparable FAs are getting now. Big help to Bucks at a real position of need. Huge O glass cleaner, which we also needed.

In 2 offseasons we will go from worst to first in rebounding. This is a great acquisition.

phaedrus posted:

I'm not sure how I feel about the loss of Brogdon.  I don't see him as a guy with a high ceiling, but he has a nice all around game and generally plays within himself really well.

If he wanted to leave Milwaukee, I can't help but wonder what the front office would have done had he wanted to stay.

George Hill will certainly help offset his loss and here's to Sterling Brown and/or DD doing so as well.

Nice that they got value for him.

Finally, I wonder if it is strict policy by the FO to never extend spending to the luxury tax.

I think the front office is willing to extend spending to the luxury tax eventually, but there are provisions in place that heavily penalize repeat offenders. Staying below it this upcoming year buys them another year before the Giannis extension shoots them way, way into the luxury tax. 

Brogdon is a good player, but he benefitted from being the 3rd option and getting wide open looks from 3. To his credit, he hit them, but I don't see him as a JJ Redick, Kyle Korver, or Steph Curry like 3 point shooter who can make them when challenged. 

We can debate the Middleton contract, but I'd rather have Robin Lopez and George Hill at 14 million (plus basically another MLE guy) than Brogdon at 21 million a year. 

Here's some comparisons of Middleton vs. Brogdon for discussion. The one thing Brogdon does at an outstanding level shooting wise is "catch and shoot" 3 pointers when he's wide open. He's in the elite range there. He's well below average on all other types of 3 pointers. He's terrible, for example, on pull-up 3s and shot only 2 3 pointers all year with a defender within 4 feet. He was also terrible on any 3 point shot after dribbling.

Middleton is actually very mediocre on catch and shoot and/or wide open 3 pointers, but well above league average hitting shots with a defender in his face, on pull up 3s, and after dribbling. 

Basically, I think almost all of us believe they are both overpaid. The difference is that Middleton can create his own shot and hit it at a decent clip, while once Brogdon has to do anything other than catch and shoot, he's not very good unless he gets to the rim. You could argue he has great shot selection, but you don't usually pay guys 21 million a year to shoot only wide open shots. 

Brogdon is at 57% inside of 10 feet, while Middleton is at 52%. On pull up 2s in the mid-range, Brogdon was 19 for 59 (32%) while Middleton was 115 for 266 (43.2%). 

Catch and shoot 3s: Brogdon (86 for 181, 47.5%); Middleton (80 for 228, 35.1%)

Pull-up 3s: Brogdon (16 for 60, 26.75); Middleton (92 for 236, 39.0)

Defender within 4 feet: Brogdon (0 for 2); Middleton (30-90, 33.0%)

Defender within 4-6 feet: Brogdon (14 for 45, 31.1%); Middleton (104 for 255, 40.8%)

Defender 6+ feet away: Brogdon (90-197, 45.7); Middleton (45 for 129, 34.9)

Here's the webpages if you want to look for yourselves. 

https://stats.nba.com/player/2...n&PerMode=Totals

https://stats.nba.com/player/1...n&PerMode=Totals

Excellent analysis MichiganPacker2 save I think you overlooked one thing which is Brogdon's effectiveness driving for layups.

I’m less concerned about losing Brogdon after I learned that George Hill was returning.  He’s basically an older version of MB for about half the price.  At times Hill was their second best player in the postseason.  

The other question was whether or not Brogdon wanted to be in Milwaukee.  Not sure we will know for sure but if that’s the case this was the right move.  Let’s be clear Indiana is taking a pretty big risk themselves for a guy that hasn’t been able to stay healthy and they gave him 5 years.  And the draft picks.  Guess they had to do something after losing Thad Young and Bogdanovic.  

Middleton is making an insane amount of money, but quite honestly everyone else they signed or brought back came at a discount.  The two Lopez brothers signing (combined) for less than 20MM is highway robbery.   Hill at 9MM per year is a decent value.  Even Bledsoe- a guy I have ripped nonstop - seems OK at his salary amount. 

phaedrus posted:

Excellent analysis MichiganPacker2 save I think you overlooked one thing which is Brogdon's effectiveness driving for layups.

That's the stat on shots inside 10 feet. Brogdon is very effective but so is Middleton. Brogdon is a slow twitch player basically. When he takes his time and has wide open looks or can turn the corner and get past a guy for a layup, he's great. 

Brogdon is at 57% inside of 10 feet, while Middleton is at 52%.

Brogdon also has some red flags in terms of his foot problems going back to college. Don't forget he's missed large portions of the last two seasons with leg/foot injuries. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story...rginia-acc/96214318/

Before the draft, he was red-flagged because of a foot surgery during the 2011-12 college season, scaring teams from taking him in the first round.

I love Brogdon. Besides Giannis he was probably my favorite Buck the last few years. But I think he'll look a LOT different in Indiana than he did shooting wide open 3 footers in the corner after Giannis drove and kicked and teams stayed glued to Middleton at the 3 point line. Also, those driving layups he excelled at were a lot easier with Brook Lopez sitting at the 3 point line to keep the opposing center from rotating over on those slow motion drives. Oladipo does not collapse a defense like Giannis. Sabonis doesn't stretch the floor like Brook Lopez. 

Brogdon will make them a better team, but is he that much better than Bogdanovic? If I was a Buck fan, having Brogdon play 35 minutes a game against me instead of Bogdanovic doesn't scare me. However, if Brogdon is lining up a wide open catch and shoot 3 at the buzzer to win a game, that would. 

Milwaukee games missed over the last two seasons (reg season and playoffs):

Middleton and Bledsoe combined: 9

Brogdon: 60

— Kane Pitman (@mkebucksaus) July 1, 2019

I know. That is a big number. Heel. Foot. Sternum. Quad. Calf. Ankle.

Wes Matthews to the Bucks. From Woj:

Free agent G Wesley Matthews has agreed to a deal with the Milwaukee Bucks, league sources tell ESPN.

Matthews is a career 38% 3 point shooter. 

Giannis, Middleton, Lopez, Bledsoe, G. Hill, W. Matthews, R. Lopez, Connaughton, and Ilyasova. That's a really solid 8 man rotation.

DiVencenzo, Wilson, Sterling Brown, Leuer to round it out. 

The Bucks have essentially replaced Mirotic and Brogdon with Matthews, Robin Lopez, and a first round draft pick (plus freed up enough money to resign Hill). 

Love this move 

Matthews is another proven veteran player that can help this team.  Apparently he’s signing for the minimum.  

That’s a pretty incredible signing.  Matthews started like 60 games last year.  Good insurance policy if DD doesn’t improve or if Sterling Brown stumbles.   At a minimum he should give them quality minutes off the bench. 

Phenomenal news. Averaged 6.6 3 pt att/game. Just great work by Jon Horst.

By the way, I think the SG spot is Sterling Brown’s to lose.  I wouldn’t just pencil in Matthews or Pat C at the 2 guard.  

Collectively, bringing back Hill, adding Matthews and Robin Lopez offsets the loss of Brogdon.  I’m not including Mirotic because honestly he wasn’t around long enough to miss. 

Jabari Parker still available. I don't want the Bucks to sign him. I just wanted to note he's still available. 

Same for Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. 

I mention it and then Frank gets his. Good for him getting some more money. 

The Lakers, Clippers, and Raptors waiting for Kawhi is really going to screw 2 of those teams.  There is not going to be much left in terms of free agents by the time Kawhi makes up his mind. Whoever loses out is looking at DeMarcus Cousins or Danny Green. Or maybe Jimmy Butler comes back into play. 

The Rockets also appear to have struck out in attempts to change their team in any meaningful way. 

In the 2017-18 playoffs, the Bucks lost to the Celtics in 7 games. This was the Bucks 8 man rotation in Game 1 of that series which was a little more than 14 months ago. 

Giannis, Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, John Henson, Tony Snell, Brogdon, Jason Terry, and Jabari Parker. Delly played big minutes the final 5 games of the series. This final 6 guys were making about 45 million. 

So we exchanged those 6 guys at then end of that list for Brook Lopez, George Hill, Wes Matthews, Pat Connaughton, Robin Lopez, Ilyasova, and Jon Leuer. Those 7 guys will make just over 50 million this year and Leuer is 10 million of that and is done after this year (to get out of Snell's contract which runs for TWO MORE years at 12 million a year). 

If Henson, Snell, and Dellavadova were still on the team we'd be paying them 31 million in 2019-20. 

Whatever else happens, unloading these guys to remake this roster but still having a first round pick (from Indy) to play with next year is some top-level GM performance. 

i think it’s easy to overlook some of these moves. 

Robin Lopez started 36 games for an awful Bulls team and gave them 10 points and 4 boards in about 20 minutes per game. 

Wes Matthews started almost every game in 2018 and averaged about 12 PPG while shooting 38% from 3.  

Then there’s Hill who really hit his stride in the playoffs.  As a starter prior to getting dealt to the Bucks he gave you 12-15PPG while shooting close to 40% from 3.  

These are not scrub pickups by any stretch and with the other players around them (namely Giannis) they should play even better in 2019/2020.  

It is going to be really fun to watch. Everyone knows Brogs wanted out. Can't make the guy sign a contract. Great maneuvering to cover any losses by Horst, while adding reliable, affordable, veteran team depth. We have other young talent maturing into their roles as well in Pat Connaughton, Sterling Brown, Donte DiVincenzo and DJ Wilson.

Keeping Brook Lopez and George Hill were key, next to Midds, while adding Robin Lopez & Wes Matthews is going to be icing on this one all the way. Quality players, hungry for a Championship.

Wesley Matthews shot an eFG% of 61% in catch and shoot situations including 71% when left open last season.

— Synergy Basketball (@SynergySST) July 1, 2019

Hmmm. Might fit in Buds system pretty well. Wes can play defense too.

PG Bledsoe/Hill
SG Matthews/Sterling/DDV/Tucker
SF Middleton/PattyC
PF Giannis/Ersan/ DJ
C  BroLo/ RoLo

That's not bad for a July 1st roster after losing their best 2 guard, Tony Snell, and Mirotic. Point is, still time for Horst to do some tweaking. 

Horst is making a case for a second Executive of the Year...

And he picked up 3 picks. That f’n insane. 

Do not sleep on Sterling Brown 

When he had a chance to play big (starter) minutes in April he shot 40% from 3 and averaged 16-20PPG.  

That’s the beauty of this team.  They have 7-8 guys that on a good night can give you 20+PPG.   And most of them play really good defense.  

How many NBA rosters can say that?  

Tschmack posted:

Do not sleep on Sterling Brown 

When he had a chance to play big (starter) minutes in April he shot 40% from 3 and averaged 16-20PPG.  

That’s the beauty of this team.  They have 7-8 guys that on a good night can give you 20+PPG.   And most of them play really good defense.  

How many NBA rosters can say that?  

The proof in the pudding will be at playoff time next year when teams employ the Giannis defense. If Kawhi goes, only the Sixers have the talent to successfully run that type of defense. That's when Wes Matthews needs to hit the shots that Mirotic didn't. 

Tschmack posted:

Do not sleep on Sterling Brown 

When he had a chance to play big (starter) minutes in April he shot 40% from 3 and averaged 16-20PPG.  

That’s the beauty of this team.  They have 7-8 guys that on a good night can give you 20+PPG.   And most of them play really good defense.  

How many NBA rosters can say that?  

I agree. Sterling is one of my favorite players. Tenacious defender. Hit 45% on 3s over 3 years at SMU.  He can shoot. Hope Bud gives him a bigger role, and that his confidence grows. Seems every time he enters a game he makes a defensive play.